More New York Passengers Now Choose United Over Delta, But It Hasn’t Won The Market Yet

Aviation watchdog JonNYC points to data that United has been again growing in the New York market, while Delta’s passenger totals have fallen somewhat.

It’s tempting to draw conclusions about Delta’s relative position in the New York market, and their position in the industry, especially since Delta’s customer satisfaction has disproportionately fallen on the most important route between New York and Los Angeles, they fly their oldest and least reliable equipment there, and in fact Delta’s old Boeing 767s with inferior business class disproportionately find New York JFK to be home. Delta’s once-vaulted reliability has fallen.

NYC traffic. March, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ik6KNAgBHt

— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) June 9, 2026

However, I don’t think we can read quite that much into the New York passenger counts.

• This isn’t (yet) a long-term trend. Delta actually grew passengers from 2023 to 2024, while United’s passenger totals declined slightly.

• United’s passenger lead is all international. They have an equal number of passengers domestically. United is also running a connecting hub at Newark. Delta’s operations are more split between New York LaGuardia (which doesn’t even have a customs facility for commercial flight) and New York JFK. JFK and LaGuardia are also slot-constrained. In the domestic market, Delta still leads with New Yorkers.

United Airlines At Newark

I think that Delta’s position in the industry is more at-risk than most people acknowledge (not least of which those residing in Atlanta) after the consecutive losses of their operations head and President, declining reliability, and product choices born out of hubris (they aren’t going with Starlink because they don’t control the interface inside their own ecosystem, but that means falling behind the industry in wifi quality for years as even Southwest will be Starlink-equipped soon).

And that jeopardizes Delta’s rich credit card deal, because their reputation for reliability and quality and fierce brand loyalty is what drives consumer willingness to spend on a credit card that is otherwise less-rewarding than peers.

Delta Air Lines at New York JFK

However, it’s not clear to me (yet) that United is overtaking Delta in the New York market, especially from Newark. And while folks will argue over whether Newark is really New York (and from where in the city Newark is actually more convenient), United’s partnership with JetBlue is about re-gaining access to New York JFK slots because they know that they need to fly from New York in order to win New York, and that former United CEO Jeff Smisek made a huge blunder in pulling out there.

In bad weather, Newark performs poorly. Once you lose visual separation, the number of takeoffs and landings at Newark falls faster than at JFK. Newark has two main runways, while JFK has four. And use of Newark’s crosswind runway is limited due to length and conflict with Teterboro approaches. And since United operates a connecting hub, disruptions cascade.

In a world where United acquired JetBlue (in a prepackaged bankruptcy) to gain scale at New York JFK and began to take LaGuardia seriously, they could surpass Delta and win New York. But they aren’t clearly there yet.