Aviation watchdog JonNYC points to data that United has been again growing in the New York market, while Delta’s passenger totals have fallen somewhat.
It’s tempting to draw conclusions about Delta’s relative position in the New York market, and their position in the industry, especially since Delta’s customer satisfaction has disproportionately fallen on the most important route between New York and Los Angeles, they fly their oldest and least reliable equipment there, and in fact Delta’s old Boeing 767s with inferior business class disproportionately find New York JFK to be home. Delta’s once-vaulted reliability has fallen.
NYC traffic. March, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ik6KNAgBHt
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) June 9, 2026
However, I don’t think we can read quite that much into the New York passenger counts.
- This isn’t (yet) a long-term trend. Delta actually grew passengers from 2023 to 2024, while United’s passenger totals declined slightly.
- United’s passenger lead is all international. They have an equal number of passengers domestically. United is also running a connecting hub at Newark. Delta’s operations are more split between New York LaGuardia (which doesn’t even have a customs facility for commercial flight) and New York JFK. JFK and LaGuardia are also slot-constrained. In the domestic market, Delta still leads with New Yorkers.
United Airlines At Newark
I think that Delta’s position in the industry is more at-risk than most people acknowledge (not least of which those residing in Atlanta) after the consecutive losses of their operations head and President, declining reliability, and product choices born out of hubris (they aren’t going with Starlink because they don’t control the interface inside their own ecosystem, but that means falling behind the industry in wifi quality for years as even Southwest will be Starlink-equipped soon).
And that jeopardizes Delta’s rich credit card deal, because their reputation for reliability and quality and fierce brand loyalty is what drives consumer willingness to spend on a credit card that is otherwise less-rewarding than peers.
Delta Air Lines at New York JFK
However, it’s not clear to me (yet) that United is overtaking Delta in the New York market, especially from Newark. And while folks will argue over whether Newark is really New York (and from where in the city Newark is actually more convenient), United’s partnership with JetBlue is about re-gaining access to New York JFK slots because they know that they need to fly from New York in order to win New York, and that former United CEO Jeff Smisek made a huge blunder in pulling out there.
In bad weather, Newark performs poorly. Once you lose visual separation, the number of takeoffs and landings at Newark falls faster than at JFK. Newark has two main runways, while JFK has four. And use of Newark’s crosswind runway is limited due to length and conflict with Teterboro approaches. And since United operates a connecting hub, disruptions cascade.
In a world where United acquired JetBlue (in a prepackaged bankruptcy) to gain scale at New York JFK and began to take LaGuardia seriously, they could surpass Delta and win New York. But they aren’t clearly there yet.
* (grabs big bag of popcorn)
* (keeps refreshing comments page)
NYC (including EWR) is a fairly well-balanced, competitive market; sure, some passengers have their specific preferences, but I feel pretty lucky to be able to choose from any of the major US carriers to plenty of internationals. Far better than being stuck in a fortress hub like CLT, ATL, DFW, or IAH.
Delta is premium not a chance United can succeed
PREMIUM Delta vintage flying historical relics
@Sarah M. — Yeah, this post does feel engineered to get Tim, Max, and others ‘engaged.’
@ 1990: At least IAH offers some competition with HOU and a large Southwest presence. Same with DFW / DAL. CLT and ATL on the other hand…
With no presence at JFK I’m not sure how that happens. EWR works for the west side of Manhattan and the NJ cities but the eastern side of Manhattan EWR becomes a no go. Particularly to the crowd that Ubers/black car to the airport. They schelping on a cross down bus to the 1/E Train to NJ Transit.
Sarah M., lol.
@Pilot Paul — Yup, in a fun twist, CLT rubs me the wrong way!
@George Romey — Oh, so you think you know geography… Anyone on the “eastern side of Manhattan” is perfectly fine going to EWR; it’s those in Queens/Brooklyn where it can be a little more of a struggle; however, those in Brooklyn probably can take Verrazzano via Staten Island faster than most, depending how backed up Lincoln/Holland tunnels are.
But the green arrows point up and the red ones point down.
I remember when American Airlines ruled NYC (Before Jet Blue and after TWA and Pam Am) Things constantly change.
I switched from Delta to United last year — I was sick of paying top dollar for cruddy business class in flying specimens from the Delta airplane museum. I miss a few things, but overall it’s been a good decision.
This graphic demonstrates how stupid it was for the Biden DOJ to block the Northeast Alliance. Delta and United lobbyists had tremendous influence in the antitrust division and duped the Neobrandisan people into doing their bidding in the guise of helping consumers
@VK — Oh please. The outright corruption of the current administration is a far greater threat to confidence in the market and the global economy than anything the prior one ever did.
as much as some people want to think NYC is a war between DL and UA, it is really a war between everyone else and DL and UA.
with NK’s demise, DL and UA both lost more than 5% of their competition at LGA and EWR. DL is now larger than AA and B6 combined in NYC – and that is before B6′ pulldown of EWR.
NYC is a true two airline city and, unlike ORD, there are enough barriers that neither DL or UA will succeed at winninig in the others’ “territory”
and UA’s only real advantage now is its service from NYC to Asia, which while much smaller than it was pre-Ukraine war, is an advantage that DL cannot now match but is certain to address as part of its recently announced TPAC and LAX expansion (which Gary did not cover).
DL still has 20% more flights to work with and will likely be able to continue borrowing slots from AA and B6, both of whom seem unable to use the slots they have.
VK is right that it was beyond stupid to shoot down the NEA and then even think that a slot swap involving B6/UA at JFK makes the least amount of sense. given that the feds are not allowing legacy carriers to gain any of NK’s slots at LGA, there is a very good chance that they could block UA from gaining anything at JFK, esp. since the B6/UA partnership has just involved B6 cutting its operation at EWR. (wink wink)
it will all be any other airlines can do to compete with DL and UA but any notion that either gains any real advantage by the difference in size is nothing more than a fantasy
and as much as UA loves to tout its size, it sure can’t turn it into a profit advantage.
Can’t wait to hear how much all of the labor settlements are going to cost UA – on top of higher fuel prices compared to DL because of DL’s refinery advantage.
@Tim Dunn — “NYC is a true two airline city” … ok, so, back to outright lying.
Ok, I did enjoy the “(wink wink)”… bah!
when no other airline has even half the share of either DL or UA in NYC, what precisely is the lie?
the feds can clearly see that DL and UA are doubling down and surviving their competitors.
DL also happens to see it and recognizes that there is a lot of value in restraint even if DL could push all of its competitors over if it wanted to.
It is comical that UA execs think that AA can’t make it at ORD and AA is a whole lot larger than what UA is or will be at either LGA or JFK and yet UA thinks it can succeed at JFK – even if they can wink wink the feds into believing that consumers benefit from allowing the largest airline in NYC to have another piece of NYC.
If UA really wants to get back to JFK, maybe it should think about reducing its size at EWR quite a bit. DL certainly doesn’t have over 50% share at LGA or JFK and yet UA is way over that at EWR.
UA can’t figure out what it wants to be – the big, bad and biggest or the pitiful underdog that doesn’t have access to a major airport.
They can’t be both.
@Tim Dunn — No single airline breaks 25% market share… it’s a well-rounded market, even if you think United (and Delta) are the only two that matter…
and yet, unlike LAX, there is no real competitor in size to the top two.
When 2 airlines carry 50% of a market and the next closest is 12.5%, it isn’t well-rounded at all.
@Tim Dunn — NYC, ORD, and LAX, as markets, are specifically the three major US markets with really healthy competition, and no specific airline dominating any of them. I said as much on Cranky recently, and I’m fairly confident the data backs me up on it. Sure, things can and do change over the years, but that’s been fairly consistent. It ain’t ATL or CLT.
* (Grabs a refill of popcorn)
@Sarah M. — Throw some M&Ms in there, gurl!
NYC, the largest US air travel market, is more concentrated than Chicago or LA and it is becoming more concentrated – which is why any talk of asset acquisitions or transfers involving the big 3 – and esp. DL or UA – is simply fantasy
@Tim Dunn — Yeah, that’s fair enough. If we’re talking slots, yup.
(But… if we wanna get creative… remove all local curfews, and induce demand for late-night travel, the FAA could create new, separate overnight slots… because, who wouldn’t wanna blast off at 3AM from LGA, awaking the good folks of Astoria or Flushing Meadows, Queens… wakie wakie!)
From a local flyer loyalty perspective, it’s an easy choice: UA + JetBlue alliance = 39% of the market. Far more choices of flights and nonstop destinations than anybody else in NYC. That alliance ‘wins’ New York.
Tory,
UA doesn’t even codeshare with B6.
and it is precisely because of UA’s size in NYC that any slot transaction is certainly likely be viewed as anticompetitive, esp. since B6 just announced it would pull down EWR.
UA doesn’t serve JFK. AA, B6 and DL all serve all 3 maojr NYC airports. UA’s need to fix its strategic mistake over a decade ago does not translate into NYC’s consumers having to pay the price by an even more concentrated NYC market.
THAT is the biggest competitive highlight.
Tim, you’re missing the forest for the trees. Local NYC flyers don’t need a codeshare to find this attractive – they just care about the network utility and points.
Even without standard codesharing, the actual day-to-day reality of this alliance is what makes it a win for NYC consumers:
Seamless Cross-Booking: They can open either the United or JetBlue app and book flights across both networks using cash, TrueBlue points, or MileagePlus miles.
Real Elite Perks: The status reciprocity is already there. Frequent flyers get the core benefits—priority boarding, checked bags, same-day standby, and access to premium economy seating (Economy Plus and EvenMore Space) at check-in—regardless of which of the two they are flying.
The JFK Fix: You mentioned UA not serving JFK, but this deal literally addresses that. JetBlue is leasing United slots for up to seven daily roundtrips at JFK’s new Terminal 6 starting next year.
When you combine United’s massive global hub at Newark with JetBlue’s dominant JFK footprint, you get a combined 39% market share. I don’t care what flight number is printed on the ticket; the sheer volume of choices and nonstops means this combination simply wins New York.
first, it is amazing how much you – who LOVE to tout UA’s size can’t see the anticompetitive issue in UA gaining even more NYC share including w/ a carrier that JUST HAPPENED to pull down EWR capacity as UA “looks forward” to getting back into JFK.
Don’t worry, though. You aren’t alone. The AA crowd – or at least some of them – love to try to include AS’ capacity in AA’s capacity calculations even though the two are and almost certainly always will be direct competitors.
The bigger question is how dumb Delta from the south managed to grow from 6th largest US airline when the US domestic airline industry was deregulated to now carrying more domestic RPMs than any other airline.
What exactly has AA and UA been doing for the last 48 years given that they were the two pre-eminent legacy carriers for most of the regulated era?
How has an upstart from Georgia managed to carry more domestic traffic than any other airline?
and, most notably, DL isn’t talking about the need to fill out any of its route system via partnerships w/ other airlines.
but, Delta will most certainly bid richly on AA’s DFW hub – if, or maybe when, that opportunity arises.
* (grabs yet another bag of popcorn)
* (throws some M&Ms in there)
* (thanks 1990 for the suggestion)
I don’t think anybody cares that “Newark is not New York.” We care that JFK is easier – if not always quicker – to get to and from. JFK is well connected to the Subway with the Air Train – perhaps the best project ever undertaken by the NYNJ Port Authority – while Newark has the miserable monorail and NJ Transit service only from Penn Station that runs a few times an hour. By road Newark is quicker from Downtown, but I hate dealing with those crappy Newark taxis and their dodgy drivers and the extra expense of the Hudson River crossings which are worse during rush hour than East River crossings.
If I live long enough, I do imagine that I’ll be a better United customer when the PATH extension to Newark is finished, but until then I’ll continue to prefer JFK.
sarah,
my goal is to keep you entertained while discussing the real issues in the industry – and not people’s personal fantasies.
It is hard to take seriously people that want to both tout UA’s size in NYC while also crying about UA’s need to regain access to an airport they stupidly left.
I will go on record as saying I wouldn’t at all be surprised if UA doesn’t return to JFK – at least any time within the next couple years.
Let’s not forget that UA is crying to get more flights at EWR even as 10% of EWR capacity is being pulled from NK’s shutdown and B6′ pulldown.
let’s be clear, though. Scott Kirby has an absolutely abysmal track record of managing his airlines’ networks in NYC – giving away 1/4 of LGA’s slots to DL for a net of $60 million, multiple DOT actions to limit capacity at EWR…. and now dreams of getting back into JFK even as UA becomes even stronger at EWR; UA has a higher share of EWR than AA has at DCA while DL has less than 50% of the slots at LGA or JFK.
@Tory gets it.
@Tim Dunn — All this talk about ‘slots’ reminds me of the airplane scene from Beevis and Butthead Do America…
@Mak — Which airport is ‘faster’ to get to depends on from-where in NYC you are starting from. Usually JFK takes longest to get to from most of Manhattan, then Newark, and LGA is closest. Van Wyck construction still ongoing, though they’re supposed to finish this year… *holds breath*
@Sarah M. — That’s a lotta popcorn!
@Mak – Fiorello La Guardia sure did in 1934 by famously refusing to get off the plane in Newark because his ticket said NYC. And now we have LGA.
The real question is what is actually going to happen with B6. I do think there’s a 50% chance that UA just views BlueSky as due diligence and gathering information on B6 loyalty members and would have no problem with B6 just collapsing in 2027 in an expensive bankruptcy filing that ultimately accomplishes little (a la Spirit). And then UA steps in to try to bid on and take over FLL and edge its way back in to JFK if it can via the new T6 where the rest of its alliance will land.
@Peter — I love a good Fiorello story! (Oof, I sure hope jetBlue survives as a stand-alone airline, because the passenger experience with them is so much better than most US domestic carriers; more legroom, live TV, better snacks, and everything Mint…) Knicks in 5!
Peter,
let’s remember that B6 was created as an attempt by Sen. Schumer to bring low fare transportation to NYC with a gift of slots. a quarter century later, that vision is very much on the verge of failure.
NK had a disproportionate size at LGA and EWR – and their absence most helps the two largest carriers, DL and UA.
AA and B6 have been unable to fully use their JFK slots for years; the entire genesis of the NEA was an attempt by AA to come up w/ a means to comply with the DOT’s use it or lose it policy for LGA and JFK slots.
post covid, AA argued that some LGA slots should be retired and capacity reduced but the FAA eliminated slot controls at JFK and also at LGA, the time period for the latter being longer. DL used that period to add flights and grow its presence, esp. at JFK; a large portion of the slots DL has at JFK now came from its organic growth in NYC post covid when slot controls were lifted.
CO and now UA have controlled 2/3 of the flights at EWR for decades.
NYC aviation is at a crossroads.
JBLU debt has been downgraded by S&P and Carl Icahn has reduced his share in the airline down to just over 5%; he clearly has little confidence that B6 can turn it around amidst high fuel prices.
Airfares rose 27% according to CPI data – far outpacing the 4% for the rest of the economy.
capacity will be cut in the 3rd quarter which will only force fares up higher – or prevent them from going down.
Lawmakers are very keen to complaints about costs; airlines will be put on a very short leash.
Given how much UA has talked about raising fares and taking out competitors, the chances that UA succeeds at gaining any access to JFK is minimal.
and if UA builds a token operation at JFK with B6 potentially gone and NK already gone, AA and DL will almost certainly make a case for growing their operations at EWR including potentially to re-add transcon flights.
DL has a slot/flight advantage in NYC now. they might not be allowed to grow much – just as UA might be capped – but DL has more than enough NYC assets to build out what it is lacking – Asia service
the final chapter of the first 50 years of the deregulation era hasn’t been written for NYC yet but you can bet that the feds and states will do everything they can to keep NYC from collapsing even further into a duopoly
@Tim Dunn — Seems like a fitting thesis for your next post on Seeking Alpha… Please, by all means, throw shade at Schumer all you want. That said, his lobbying for 75 slots over a quarter-century ago isn’t the ‘own’ you think it is. B6 is aggressively cutting under-performing routes, pivoting to high-margin premium leisure, and waiting on that juicy P&W infrastructure payout.
Also, you might want to check your data before posting: Carl Icahn doesn’t seem to be fleeing…he expanded his stake to ~9% and secured two board seats. Finally, conflating temporary FAA ATC staffing waivers with permanent slot deregulation is a stretch… Calling all this ‘at a crossroads’ is not unique to NYC; every airport and airline in the world is under strain these days from the fuel shock caused by current geopolitical chaos.
1990
I am not throwing shade on Schumer.
I am saying that B6 was created because of his efforts to create an LCC for NYC and, 25 years later, that vision is more fragile than ever.
NK had a disproportionate share of LGA and EWR capacity than its national size and the feds do not want that capacity to be reabsorbed by legacies – which is very much a shot at DL and UA.
I didn’t say Icahn is fleeing. He is cutting his stake from almost 10% to just over 5%.
LCCs around the world are under enormous pressure and there will be economic failures as fuel is expected to remain high easily into 2027 – which I have been saying since this started.
but Gary is US based and the majority of commenters here are US and most of the content is US based.
and, whether you want to hear it or not, NYC is closer to a duopoly than Chicago or Los Angeles – much more in line with Washington.
there are abundant reasons why feds and states are going to limit the growth of DL and UA in NYC; whether they should and whether they have the legal authority to do so is a big question but I can assure you that the glib discussions about UA picking off B6 assets and gaining access to JFK are still very much just a pipe dream
I don’t get the pipe dream part. B6 is unprofitable and saddled with a ton of debt. Has plenty of liquidity for this year but then no real plan to pay down debt and has a big debt wall. Interest rates remain stubbornly high which may make refinancing a big challenge. To me that signals a likely 2027 bankruptcy. Maybe they’ll cut debt in the bankruptcy and emerge. Or maybe not and folks will circle like vultures to try and pick up the pieces.
One of those vultures will be UA who is currently the fox in the hen house with Bluesky.
Sure, regulators don’t want to allow for unchecked growth by UA and DL. Can see that with Spirit auction right now and posturing by government to just eliminate the slots Spirit is trying to sell unless to a LCC.
But end of the day folks like Schumer will stick their necks out not for Spirit but for ensuring some meaningful competition on NY to Florida routes. And if B6 fails, which is not unlikely, is it really unthinkable to see some grand bargain be cut that ultimately will benefit folks like UA?
And I presume folks may want that bargain cut in 27-28 before the next national election.
So nothing is a sure thing for UA. It can’t be. Easily could not happen the way they want. But inflation is high, fuel prices high, ticket prices high, and B6 turnaround is likely too little too late. And there will be winners and losers from B6 collapse.
Of course all of this illustrates why AA / B6 NEA should have been allowed in the first place.
@TD: (you, quote:) “Scott Kirby has an absolutely abysmal track record of managing his airlines’ networks in NYC – giving away 1/4 of LGA’s slots to DL for a net of $60 million”
Source?
Not saying you’re wrong, but I cannot find what in the world you are talking about. And AI can certainly be wrong, but giving it a spin, trying to find UA giving DL slots in LGA, comes up with this:
“United Airlines did not give any slots at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) to Delta. Instead, Delta acquired its massive LaGuardia slot portfolio in a completely different transaction.The key details of how the airports and slots were handled:
The LGA Slot Swap: Delta obtained its slots at LGA through a major slot-swap deal with US Airways. Delta gave US Airways slots at Washington Reagan National Airport (DCA) and, in return, received 132 US Airways slot pairs at LaGuardia in 2011 to build its LGA hub.”
AI’s sources for this summation is a DOT website link. Even asking if United gave up slots in LGA, period (that Delta might have subsequently taken, i.e. not a true “trade”) – AI claims they never did: “United Airlines has not given up its landing and takeoff slots at LaGuardia Airport (LGA).” (Source: Aviationweek)
Also, you can’t mean Kirby was involved with the slot swap that DID occur between Delta and United, with slots traded between EWR and JFK. That agreement was announced in June, 2015. Kirby joined United two months later, in August. That swap plan was under the Continental leadership that remained after the United/Continental merger, headed by Jeff Smisek.
So, what are you talking about? I tried to stay out of this one, but when you either have sources that can’t be found on the web, or are outright making stuff up, I’ve got to chime in.
Again, sources please.
@TD: (What I’m getting at – how do you come up with $60M? I know he was at USAir when that deal was struck)
Oh dear not this again. Maybe United should fly to New York if it wants to win NY. I am surprised that this is even a statement in this story. To the traveling public no one really cares. This is like saying Washington DC has no airport of its own. Too bad for them I suppose, since DCA and IAD are both in Virginia. Again the public doesn’t care.
Last I checked United still flies to LGA. Doesn’t that still count as New York?
One more, Tim – because I don’t have time for a lot of “back and forth” today.
1) You’re forgetting the UsAir-Delta slot swap was to serve the needs of UsAir in 2011. You’re looking at it with the benefit of hindsight. In 2011 UsAir got out of trying to run a hub at an airport (LGA) with a horrible terminal, lousy weather delays, and intense competition in the NY area, in exchange for a hub at an airport that had minimal competition (UA at IAD and SWA at BWI were not really competing with a downtown DC airport, especially in 2011). The move served UsAir’s needs at the time.
2) You had to go back 15 years to find something to criticize Kirby about? You’ve got 6+ years fully in charge of United, and the decisions made in NY, to look at. If you don’t have enough recent ideas to pummel – maybe there’s not enough bad ones period. I would be like going after Delta’s 2005 bankruptcy to challenge their current financial state. Not relevant.
3) You say United shouldn’t expand into JFK because they’d get too big and be too dominant in the NY market (ignoring the other times you’ve said EWR isn’t part of the NY market). But you also say Kirby makes mistakes in the NY market, and that a few flights into JFK can’t compete with Delta etc. and it will be a money loser. Since when do you stop a competitor from making a mistake?
Either Kirby makes bad decisions, and you should let him falter while losing money in JFK. Or he’s making good moves and might dominate the NY market with a JFK presence, challenging the other airlines there. Can’t have it both ways. Pick a lane.
@Tim Dunn — I’m more with @Peter than you on jetBlue. They have a multi-billion dollar liquidity cushion, and the JetForward plan is chopping out the dead weight. I still think B6 is simply different from NK, and even with a difficult road ahead, they should be able to pull this off. (At least, I really hope so.) Touché on the Icahn intel; I see that filing literally dropped today (correct, down to 5.55%).
Paul
My comments about NYC strategy is both Kirby at US and UA under both Kirby and previous leaders.
The BIG slot swap was between DL and US and heavily favored DL by the time the dust settled. DL and UA did do a slot swap for JFK vs. EWR but the EWR part of the deal was blocked because of UA’s size at JFK while the DL part of the deal went through, increasing DL’s size at JFK even though UA got nothing for it.
Kirby, as CEO of UA, has miscalculated multiple times on how big EWR could grow and pushed growth beyond what the airport could handle only to have the feds step in.
UA might well end up back at JFK if B6 collapses and there are no other takers for slots – but AA’s performance at JFK could most benefit from B6′ demise. It is very possible that they could argue they need more slots and have a far more compelling case.
and even if UA gets into JFK, DL will also get some of the B6 JFK slots and will also grow at EWR. DL has a lower share of JFK and LGA slots than UA does of EWR flights.
and 1990,
B6 is burning cash and they have yet to prove they can make money esp. with high fuel prices which are not going down anytime soon.
correction..
UA’s size at EWR
@Tim Dunn — Fuel is a headache for the whole industry right now. And yet, JetBlue still has nearly $2 billion in liquidity, over $4 billion in unencumbered assets, and zero major debt maturities until 2029. Their Q2 2026 RASM trends are moving up because their premium leisure pivot is working. (I’m personally a huge fan of Mint; hope you get to try it someday!) Not to mention, Spirit’s demise is a tailwind for B6 on the East Coast. Plenty of runway to see this turnaround through.
I avoid United because of crappy hubs like EWR, DEN, IAH, and ORD. SFO is nice though.
TIm, there is no reason to think that United won’t get back into JFK at all. In the not so distant past United did serve JFK, twice to LAX and twice to SFO. No one stepped in to stop them. But 4 slots wasn’t enough. I don’t know why you are so convinced that Delta would really ever want to grow at EWR. Have they ever expressed interest in taking on United there? Last I checked Delta served EWR, hence they can develop a plan to take on United anytime they want to there.