President Trump is expected to announce his plan for a $22.5 billion reconstruction of Washington Dulles airport.
- The proposal would preserve Eero Saarinen’s iconic main terminal while replacing most of the airport behind it: new concourses, new gates, new baggage and security facilities, parking closer to the terminal and set up the underground AeroTrain system so that stations match the actual terminals passengers fly from.
- After more than six decades, regular use of the airport’s mobile lounges and Plane Mates would end.
President Trump has been personally designing the project. But the problem is, the federal government hasn’t appropriated money for this and if the airport spends it then costs for the airlines will be too high to operate.
The President Has Been Engaged In Design Work
The President was a real estate developer. His motorcade detoured through the airport in October. At a December Cabinet meeting he called the Saarinen terminal a “great building” attached to a bad airport, and the Transportation Department subsequently issued a request for ideas.
Companies presented concepts, Trump asked several of them to produce substantial three-dimensional tabletop models. Those models were repeatedly hauled to the White House as the president requested revisions to address his view that:
- parking was too far from the terminal.
- mobile lounges were “crazy.” (one proposal kept the mobile lounges but renamed name ‘Direct Jet Transport’ or DJT)
- the train system did not take passengers where they actually needed to go.
- baggage handling and passenger circulation were poor
- new construction needed to respect Saarinen’s original terminal.
Trump rejected a wavy roof on the main terminal and a bridge tall enough for aircraft to pass beneath it as well as a second main terminal at the far end of the airport. United opposed letting BlackRock finance, build and operate it in exchange for control over airport revenues.
United CEO Scott Kirby met with Trump. His airline had donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration, Kirby was nearly alone in travel in publicly supporting the President’s tariffs, and vocally blamed Democrats for last year’s government shutdown. Kirby asked the President to bless a merger between United and American Airlines.
What The President’s Dulles Plan Would Build
The final concept resembles the airport authority’s long-term plan, with accelerated completion in the mid-2030s.
The main Saarinen terminal would remain, with its interior gutted, built and extended 300 feet in each direction. Ticketing, security, concessions, lounges, baggage facilities and international arrival processing would all be reconfigured. Parking would move closer to the terminal. Dulles would be reorganized into four linear concourses:
- The current A and B complex would be rebuilt and redesignated as Concourse A, connected directly to the main terminal after security.
- The temporary C/D concourse, built in 1985, would finally be demolished. A new Concourse B would include approximately 33 United regional gates.
- The 14-gate Concourse E now under construction would be expanded and renamed Concourse C, primarily handling United international flights.
- A new Concourse D would handle non-United domestic service.
New underground moving walkways and a U-shaped AeroTrain route would connect the terminal with the concourses. The airport’s current $160 million overhaul of mobile lounges would be halted.
The first piece for $4.5 to $5 billion for 2.5 – 3 million square feet of consutrction is already in early process. That covers the main terminal work, new gates, expanded security and reconstruction of the A/B concourse. The airport authority plans construction late next year and completion by 2034. But that’s only the start:
- $2.3 billion to replace temporary C/D concourse with a new United regional concourse.
- $4 billion to complete the larger concourse incorporating the new Concourse E.
- $3.7 billion for the eastern portion of the new non-United domestic concourse.
- $3.75 billion for the AeroTrain extension and underground passenger tunnel.
How On Earth Does This Get Paid For?
The President can’t commit $22 billion that congress hasn’t appropriated. The airport authority can issue bonds, if the market thinks it can pay them back. But the airport costs a project of this size would imply would put real pressure on United’s operations, and would make any low cost carrier service uneconomical.
Trump also can’t make the airport authority sign onto this. He appoints only three members of the seventeen member board.
Already, the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority had $4.7 billion of Aviation Enterprise revenue bonds outstanding. The current plan would add $21.8 billion more. Rough back of the envelope,
- $22 billion additional debt over 30 years
- 5% interest
- Annual $1.4 billion interest expense
- Which is more than the airport authority’s entire 2025 revenue from both Dulles and National airports (out of which it needs to pay airport operating costs).
The actual debt would be issued in stages. There could be longer maturities. But this isn’t an airport that can handle $22 billion additional debt.
United Has Been Railing Against Costly Projects Like This For Decades
The current Washington Dulles C/D concourse was built as a temporary facility in 1985. Congress and the Transportation Department wouldn’t fund the permanent midfield concourse. United has been the main tenant and 20 years ago even considered eliminating Washington Dulles as a hub. It wasn’t generating enough revenue. The airport was too expensive.
Former United CEO Jeff Smisek described the airport’s finances as a “terrible competitive burden.” Kirby warned that a new concourse could not be allowed to destroy the economics of their operation, noting Pittsburgh’s beautiful terminal which preceded US Airways dropping it as a hub.
To entice United to stay, the airport authority moved $295.4 million of Reagan National’s revenue to Dulles between 2015 and 2024. The state of Virginia kicked in an additional $50 million subsidy. The airport authority sold land to lower airline costs at Dulles, too.
The Airport Authority Says United Signs Off On Borrowing The Money
It’s more than a little weird when the airport authority’s CEO says that “The airlines have concurred” on bond financing for this project. They can’t proceed without United’s signoff. We just don’t know exactly what United actually agreed to.
- What federal subsidy is paired with this? And where is that money coming from?
- What commitments have been made to cap United’s costs?
- Or is this somehow a play that Kirby worries about it later, works to please Trump and if airport costs balloon he figures that just protects United against low fare competition at Dulles forever?
- And what does “concurrence” actually mean, the first $4 billion tranche or the whole project?
$90 Airport Costs Won’t Work With $99 Fares
A May airline briefing put Washington Dulles cost per enplanement at $90.64 in 2035 under this program. That’s the airline’s average airport cost divided by departing passengers.
- The actual Dulles cost per enplanement was $9.56 in 2025.
- The 2026 budget is $12.77
- Moving to anything close to $90 is literally insane.
There are no viable $99 tickets when the cost per passenger is $90. There are no low fare routes, and no low fare carriers.
Kirby himself made this argument about New York, that a low cost airline (like Frontier or previously Spirit) earning an average fare of $58 cannot absorb $52 of airport cost before paying for fuel, labor and planes: “It just doesn’t work.” As Kirby likes to say, ‘because he can do math.’
We’re Building The Wrong Things, At The Wrong Speed
The Washington region has grown out towards the exurb since Dulles was first built. But it’s still 50 minutes out from downtown. To save money, the metro that was built to the airport doesn’t actually reach the airport itself. It stops before the terminal itself. You enter the headhouse and you’re still nowhere near your gates, a sprawling walk and train ride still awaits you.
Air travel is meant to take you someplace quickly. Getting to, through, and out of Washington Dulles is misery. We’re building ever larger airports that add journey time and hassle. Beautiful buildings and high end retail aren’t making travel better.
The Empire State Building took thirteen and a half months to construct. This is being talked about for a decade from now, before inevitable delays. We take too long to build things – even things we shouldn’t be building. Somewhere we lot the plot completely.
Everything Midas touched turned to gold. Everything Dump touches turns to sh*t.
Gary is right on this.
IAD was never intended to become the airport it is now.
UA turned into a major hub providing the majority of the international and longhaul domestic service for the Baltimore/Washington area but last among the 3 area airports in short haul domestic service.
This is precisely why UA wants to buy someone else – to be able to acquire the right hubs without the costly rebuilding and expansion that will destroy UA’s finances. The same thing is being repeated at ORD.
Even if UA agrees to just a fraction of this total plan, IAD’s viability is dramatically slashed in favor of other airports in the eastern US which already work.
and let’s keep in mind this still does not give UA a hub in the SE.
@Tim Dunn — Eh, some folks do consider Virginia part of ‘the South’ and compared to Houston it sure is ‘east’-ish, so…
@Ray — You’re correct, but, lest we forget, his supporters have a secret weapon… calling everyone and everything they disagree with ‘communist!’ and shouting ‘TDS! TDS! TDS!’ *gasp*
Dulles is for hikers. Look how far it is from Metro Airport Station to the gates, The whole airport was a mistake.
1990
yes, the Washington metro could be considered in the NE part of the SE but DCA siphons off most of the inside DCA perimeter just as LGA does in NYC relative to JFK.
The solution is to either control both IAD and DCA – which has been tried and failed multiple times – or control a third airport as WN does at BWI and UA does with EWR even though the market in both metros prefers the perimeter restricted airport for short haul domestic traffic.
this isn’t just about the facility but the market that can be serviced by it.
an IAD hub alone in the Baltimore/Washington metro looks alot like a global carrier version of what B6 has at JFK – and also why an UA acquisition of B6 – or a large portion of it – probably wouldn’t work in the marketplace even aside from the antitrust and debt issues.’
Gary is right. This massive plan could ruin IAD’s usefulness as a hub. It will probably be scaled back but IAD will become much more costly to use for airlines which will hurt UA.
@Tim Dunn — I recall @Gary Leff has a special loathing for Dulles, so much so that he’s openly stated on here that he’d rather fly Southwest in economy out of DCA to Austin than sit in United First Class out of IAD just to avoid the hassle of getting to, through, and out of that airport. Still, agreed, even with his bias factored in, trying to sell United (or any carrier) on absorbing an increase of $13 to $90 CPE to fund a $22B redesign is a fantasy.
Calling this “his” plan is so dumb- it should be described up front as MWAA’s long-term master plan, with some gold filigree added to allow him to say it’s “his”.
Most of it is fine, although the money makes no sense without the demand to match the expansion, as Gary said. That’s why MWAA was looking at this stuff as 20+ years into the future.
The walk from the metro station yes is a little annoying but not that big a deal, it’s all indoors and about 5 minutes, but yes they should have spent the $500 million from the start to put it directly under the terminal as originally planned.
I don’t understand the “move parking closer to the terminal” part? There is already a parking lot directly in front of the access road in front of the terminal.
Easy. Tax the rich. Make them pay their fair share. It can be f t ee ro the rest of us. Hahaĥa
Raise income tax, tax frequent flyer miles, require half of upgrades go to basic economy passengers, AOC for President with combined self appointment to Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Transportation.
@Tim Dunn – At least at ORD, you can take the blue line right smack into the terminal. That’s worth its weight in gold.
Derek you are so right. Tax the damn rich people. Crooks.
1990: To Timbits, the “southeast” is Atlanta, with the remaining area of about eight states simply being adjucts to Atlanta. It’s people like Timbits that put William Tecumseh Sherman near the top of my hero list.
Well, Timbits, the midwest is Chicago, with the remaining area of about eight states simply adjuncts to Chicago. Minneapolis? Detroit? They don’t matter, and their fortress airports don’t matter either. Only Chicago does. Stuff that up there if there’s any room not occupied by your A350-1000 pleasure toy.
OK Mr pundit, what’s your solution? You admit the airport is shit now, is your only issue that you don’t believe it will be paid for? That’s rather naive. Government gets to steal unlimited dollars. I mean, your California Dem buddies are still piling money into the high speed rail boondoggle 20 years later with not a single mile of track laid, but I don’t hear much on this blog about that. This will actually be built and used at least.
@derek
Define fair share. The top 1% pay 40% of tax revenue. The bottom 40% or more pay zero or get paid. So what is the fair share? I’d like to see the deadbeats pay their fair share first. Maybe then you wouldn’t be so eager to increase government spending paid for by others.
Considering trump was a mediocre student at the wharton business school. How does he manage to design anything? He doesn’t. He even swore in the Epstein case ” I don’t draw, I never draw”
He barely pays others , then takes the credit for the job done well.
@O’Hare Is My Second Home — “They don’t matter…” and “Stuff that up there”… Lawdy!
@Mantis — You must see that @derek is performing a satirical strawman.
Mike,
ATL has in-terminal mass transit rail and the cost to operate there is a whole lot less than ORD while also handling more passengers.
Homeless,
DL is still the largest airline in both the SE and the Midwest.
and its hubs in those regions are far more economical and better capable of handling traffic.
UA and its merger partner CO simply waited too long to decide to have a large domestic presence and will spend a fortune- which its passengers won’t pay – in order to build terminals now that other airlines built 40-50 years ago, or even in the case of DTW, 25 years ago.
This is just one of the reasons why Kirby is now desperate to find a merger partner so he can inherit some functional and economically viable hubs. The notion that they would built hub capacity and add planes fast enough to become the largest domestic airline was a fantasy.
I said years ago that UA would reach this point.
@Mantis, care to explain the math?
How can it be that a few hundred ( billionaires) who apparently are paying ” less taxes than their secretary” can be paying 40% of the entire taxes, when the the lower 90% ARE paying the highest taxes & than the billionaires”.
Yep, DL has the #15, #16 & #37 metros locked up, and it’s amazing that their SEA hub is DL’s worst performer of them all. AS must be tough.
Wild that Tim thinks UA doesn’t have economically viable hubs, they are literally the only Big 4 airline that is profitable in all of its hubs. DL is losing in SEA and some of the Midwest is break even. AA loses in ORD and half their other hubs. UA is literally profitable in all of their hubs (though IAD is one of the weaker ones).
Kirby isn’t desperate for a merger, in fact he’s come out many times saying that they could be value destructive. He just knows that this administration is probably the last opportunity for major aviation consolidation in the US and wants to make use of that. The fact that you can’t work that out makes me really question your understanding of the industry (I mean the incorrect facts and refusal to read data that you’ve shown for years makes me question it too)
You mean Trump didn’t think this through thoroughly. Shocking…said no one.
@Mantis, care to explain the math?
How can it be that a few hundred ( billionaires) who apparently are paying ” less taxes than their secretary” can be paying 40% of the entire taxes, when the the lower 90% ARE paying the highest taxes & than the billionaires”.
Trump was at best, a mediocre student at wharton business school.
The only way he can help design Anything is by paying someone and we know he doesn’t pay well. He just takes credit for someone else’s work. He even swore during the Epstein case.” I don’t draw. I never draw. “
Timbits, what did I tell you? In the midwest, only Chicago matters, and in Chicago, Delta is an irrelevance at best, exiled to the Eighth Circle Of Hell with such magnificent performers as Frontier. Its old SkyClub is now a United Club. Its new SkyClub is garbage, only fit to supply DieTeam low-life cutomers. Your airline is evil, your airline is garbage, and your airline has no relevance in the only city that counts.
I don’t know what I dislike more Trump or having to board a mobile lounge after a long haul flight.
feel free to post your data, Andy.
OF course you can’t provide it because all you have is Scotty’s internal data that naturally doesn’t include credit card revenue allocated by hub (since UA is 3rd out of the big 3 in credit card revenue) and also doesn’t recognize that DL has a huge fuel cost advantage – and even w/ the refinery partially shut down for the 3rd quarter, DL will still beat UA in fuel costs.
Even before we get to Delta Tech Ops which reduces DL’s maintenance costs on its own fleet.
you two got mighty silent for a couple days in the wake of news that Kirby called DL begging for a merger only to try again with AA.
UA can’t compete w/ the rest of the big 4 in the domestic market and certainly not in any kind of cost efficiency. All of those new 737s and 787s are too expensive on top of the new terminals.
KIrby is realizing that and is looking for a way out of massive rebuilding including of IAD.
You two can deflect all you want but the evidence is overwhelming that all of the nonsense you have posted does not and will not move the needle.
But of course you clowns aren’t wanting to see your paychecks cut so soldier on spewing garbage.
The IAD main terminal building was already gutted and extended 300 feet on each end in the late 90’s.
The current Aerotrain was laid out in anticipation of remote terminal construction that hasn’t really happened. This means that the train stations for the existing Terminal C are not actually at Terminal C and the train to terminal D was never completed.
The layout of the main terminal ticketing area is not really deep enough for the number of passengers that try to check in most of the time. Lengthening the terminal will not help this much if the ticket counters remain laid out the way they are.
In ’16 UA’s domestic share was 26% behind DL. Now the difference is just 7%. UA is coming fast.
US domestic mainline market share (passengers) 2016/2025
DL: 16.4%/17.8%, +9%
AA: 17.2%/17.3%, +1%
SW:18.2%/16.9%, -7%
UA: 13.0%/16.6%, +28%
UA has 260 new larger aircraft being delivered from ’26 through March of ’28 with 100+ smaller aircraft retirements. Imagine the upgauging not to mention the 22 new gates at IAH and 14 new international gates at IAD.
Tim you do realise that United has its own tech ops too right? Its the biggest airline in the world and you think they don’t do maintenance? Hahahahaha They have over 15,000 employees and 50+ line maintenance stations.
Also you think the measurement of hub profitability doesn’t include fuel cost? It’s an airline’s biggest expense and you think they don’t include it in profit calculations? Hahahahahaha
Also if you’re talking about Delta MRO revenue (United has MRO revenue as well just not as a separate line item in financials), that is a revenue line not a reduction in cost. Hahahahaha – crazy you want to have this debate and don’t understand simple accounting concepts. Revenue is not the same as a reduction in cost.
“you two got mighty silent for a couple days in the wake of news that Kirby called DL begging for a merger only to try again with AA.” I literally addressed that in my comment. Can you not read?
“UA can’t compete w/ the rest of the big 4 in the domestic market and certainly not in any kind of cost efficiency.” Then why is it more cost efficient than Delta? Latest Quarter United was at 18.99 CASM vs Delta’s 22.74. CASM-EX was 13.12 vs 14.09 – I do know this isn’t stage length adjusted but ridiculous to state that UA is not cost competitive.
I mean Kirby may be looking to make IAD cheaper – its an expensive hub, no doubt about that! I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump goes for a private partnership here to reduce the costs a bit – similar to the JFK upgrades. But its laughable that you think that United is desperate for profitable hubs when all its hubs are profitable unlike DL and AA.
Unlike you Tim, I don’t work for any team in this debate – I know you describe yourself as part of the red team. So maybe your bonus is being cut because of Delta’s massive (notably larger than UA) drop in profit last quarter? Was that profit fall because Delta was winning so much? I mean I know they are losing in NYC (the air traffic dashboard shows them losing 600k pax to United over the last 12 months) and then they are losing in SEA to AK – where is DL actually winning? Even in LAX their biggest growth opportunity – DL went from 21.5% share to 22.2% but United went from 17.5% to 18.5% YoY in the latest release. So UA is even outgrowing them there! In SLC DL lost share and the market declined. In MSP DL lost share and the market declined (massively actually down like 4% YoY there eek). In DTW the market grew like 1% and DL went backwards in market share even as Spirit was dying – I do expect them to rebound now that Spirit is fully dead here but given they were losing as a competitor was dying this is wild. In BOS they grew market share a tiny bit but the whole market declined so they were basically flat! In ATL their home hub! Their fortress, their crown jewel! They mad a very modest share gain! Woohoo, but oh wait the whole ATL market declined 2% and DL having like 75% market share caught the brunt of that I guess and is down YoY.
Meanwhile UA Gained share in SFO (and fast growing market growing >4% YoY), IAD (also a fast growing market at >4%), NYC (flat market, DL went backwards here), LAX (Declining market), IAH (flat market), DEN (Flat market). Only in ORD did UA go backwards, from 39.3% to 38.5% because of AA having to fight back – also the whole ORD market grew 8% YoY so the pie got much larger – so even with lost share UA still grew total pax by 1.5M in YoY here.
So why Tim, just why, is DL losing basically everywhere and you somehow think they are winning? UA is winning in all of its hubs bar one and even where UA is losing the market is growing so they are growing. Make it make sense Tim.
For anyone who wants to fact check me (Tim I know you’re allergic to facts so I’m sorry), the data is all in the latest BTS release.
Anything that accelerates no longer having to get mobile lounges after an international flight is good no matter the cost. Governments usually find the money to do what they want, regardless of which party is in charge. As a user of Dulles I like the proposed changes, not just getting rid of the mobile lounges. Making the parking closer is a good thing and, if possible, making the Metro stop closer to where we have to be is a good thing too.
I actually don’t think IAD is that bad, except for the mobile lounges. I live in DC and take Metro to Dulles a fair bit. It’s roughly 1 hour door-to-door and the walk from the Dulles station to the actual terminal really isn’t that long. It reminds me of the walk from the CTA Blue Line to the ticketing counters at O’Hare and the Blue Line actually drops you off “inside” the terminal. And actually, it easily takes an hour to get from downtown Chicago to ORD by train, and even longer than that from most parts of Manhattan to either EWR or JFK. And more like 1 1/2 hours from most parts of LA to LAX by public transport. Sure, faster is better, but I don’t think that’s the big problem with Dulles.
The mobile lounges, however, are miserable. Nothing worse than sitting on a 12 hour flight only to land and then have to deal with waiting for some stupid old bus to haul you to customs. Those “lounges” are crowded, uncomfortable, and just feel kind of third world. Get rid of those and redevelop the lackluster United concourses and you’re in pretty good shape. Terminal A/B is actually really nice!
none of those tidbits change that UA is having to spend enormously to grow and it cannot do so at industry competitive costs which is precisely why Kirby is ringing up anyone he can to bail him out of the mess he made by thinking he could be in the same league domestically as AA, DL and WN.
Is Andy hiding under the desk with you? We’re waiting for his hub profitability data.
@Doug — Mantis is based in Asia; he’ll get back to you with some libertarian garbage once he awakes from his stupor (probably in a couple hours.)
Tim I never said I had such data, I’ve just read industry commentary – there are great analysts that cover this stuff, I suggest you listen to them. Also UA did better on costs last quarter than DL did, so I don’t think your comment makes any sense? They literally have lower CASM and CASM-EX? Make it make sense Tim.
To add, according to BTS – UA grew share in 6/7 hubs, only ORD did they lose share in a market that grew 8% YoY so they still grew 1.5M pax. DL is losing share in SEA, MSP, NYC, DTW (Even with Spirit dying?) and SLC. They gained share in LAX (Though UA gained more share lol), ATL (a declining market so actually had a YOY decline) and BOS (similarly also a declining market). If DL was so good wouldn’t they be like winning somewhere?
Also you think that UA, the literal biggest airline in the world with a 15,200 person, 56 line station maintenance organization doesn’t have MRO? (They literally advertise it on their website)
Tim you are getting worse at this.
“Somewhere we lot the plot completely.” Along with spellcheck
Sorry Tim, I hammered on the same points twice because my first comment was pending review for awhile – anyway it got approved so here we are.
“mess he made by thinking he could be in the same league domestically as AA, DL and WN.” I mean it is true that UA has the lowest share of the big 4 domestically. According to BTS the split for DL/AA/WN/UA is 17.8%/17.5%/17%/16.9%. Delta is 0.9% more than UA. Would I say thats the same league? I mean probably, after UA it drops to 6.6% (AK), 7.9% if you include HA, so UA is literally more than double the next guy. But I think what is more interesting is the momentum. A year ago, UA was at 16.2%, DL was at 17.9%. UA is growing while DL is shrinking. In fact DL is the only carrier in the big 4 that is shrinking share lol. And its shrinking not just in share but in absolute values too – it carried 1.08% fewer passengers. UA grew pax by 4.88%.
So UA is the fastest growing airline of the big 4, yes it is second in profitability but it is closing the profit gap and the profit gap declined in the last quarter. UA is growing in literally all of its hubs and growing share in 6/7 of them and you think Kirby is desperate for a merger? They are also the biggest airline by Pax revenue, by ASMs, RSMs, aircraft etc. the list goes on. You talk about cost competitiveness, UA has the lowest CASM and CASM Ex of the Big 3.
You’re at the point of being disconnected from reality lol.
“DL is the best” – it is losing in most of its hubs and in total market share across the country
“UA is’n’t cost cost competitive” – it is literally the lowest cost Big 3 carrier
“UA is desperate for better hubs” – UA’s hubs represent the number 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 13 and 19 metro areas in the US. DL does 1,2 ,6, 12, 14,15, 16 and 46 – pretty clear which is better. UA is gaining in 6/7 of the hubs and growing in all of them – not the case for DL lol.
“You haven’t included credit card revenue, UA is screwed because of loyalty” – UA had more credit card user growth than DL (admittedly boosted by those recent Mileageplus changes) and is about to start renegotiating with Chase (the largest bank in the country and their cards have wider acceptance than Amex) – look of course I can’t predict the future, but I’m going to take a little bet that UA has a bit more leverage this time around and could eek out a better deal.
“DL has a fuel cost advantage” – yes their undersized and terribly operated (as evidenced by it being offline in the latest quarter when cracking spreads were huge and DL would be desperate to be online lol) refinery in PA that covers like 25% of their fuel needs allows them to capture cracking volatility. The refinery has been value destructive under DL ownership (it has lost more than they put in due to years of losses and capex upgrades not to mention the original $150M price) though it is looking like it’ll breakeven this year! it was bought in 2012 so thats an amazing 14 year payback. I’m not saying you are wrong about their advantage, its just been a long and painful road for them to get there and in hindsight was a terrible management decision
“there are great analysts that cover this stuff, I suggest you listen to them.” … Oh, Andy.
I read all kinds of stuff about the airline industry and I also have the data that you don’t want to admit exists.
Wall Street analysts view DAL and UAL very well – both are rated Strong Buy.
But UAL is worth just 69% of what DAL is worth as a company and the ratio is going down – UAL was worth over 80% of DAL’s valuation not that long ago.
But UAL’s earnings – stripping out sale-leaseback transactions which add debt and which UA is doing as well as equity valuations in other airlines – which DL has done which is a hit to earnings – show that DL is much more profitable; the second quarter had much less of those adjustments and DL’s net income was twice UA’s.
And the point which you two clowns can’t seem to admit is that UA”s CEO has admitted that UA cannot achieve DL’s level of profitability while competing with AA, DL and WN In the domestic market – and now DL to a growing degree in the TPAC.
you can bang the keyboard all you want but UA’s position relative to DL is declining – and Wall Street which plays no favorites sees it.
UA can buy all the publicity it wants but the real industry analysts know that DL is simply a better run airline and business and UA is just a runner up.
@Doug
Because your beliefs are false. The wealthy pay the vast majority of taxes. They mostly pay in the form of capital gains. You’re focusing on a myopic view of taxation, tax rates, which are meaningless when regular salary is a tiny part of their income. If you want to punish investment by jacking up capital gains rates then you’re gonna find out the cure is worse than the disease.
@Mantis — You joining @Mike P on the ‘taxation is theft’ sovereign-citizen train, or you joining the UBI bandwagon?
TD says, “sale-leaseback transactions which add debt”
All evidence to the contrary.
Net Debt: UAL/DAL in $b
Q3 ’25: 22.4/15.6
Q4 ’25: 19.2/14.3
Q1 ’26: 18.8/13.5
Q2 ’26: 17.7/13.6
TTM ∆: 4.7/2.0 = UA 2.7b more in net debt reduction in last 12 months than DL
Mainline aircraft TTM net change: UA grew fleet by 59 more aircraft
UA: 83
DL: 24
you prove nothing except that you are beyond incapable of understanding data.
UA’s debt went up.. They just added a bunch of cash as a financial cushion that they might repay at some point in the future – which is why their net debt went down.
You either have no clue what you are talking about or you are paid so much to lie that you can’t even tell what is true anymore.
It’s hard to beleive, but United Airlines established its East Coast “hub” at IAD in the ’80’s when Piedmont was all over the place, in DAY and CLT. Allegheny hadn’t yet become USAir and was bounding out of PHL and PIT. American had its RDU and BNA “hublets”. Southwest was putting down roots in BWI.
UA picking IAD wasn’t a crazy idea. It was available, maybe because everyone else thought it was a terrible idea, and it could support UA’s aspiring transatlantic notions.
Now here we are some 40 years later and UA STILL hasn’t fleshed out IAD.
The mobile lounges are still there because preliminary investigation revealed the soil under the area is sandy and it would require a budget-busting tunnel project to put a train in to replace surface transport.
So why hasn’t UA made IAD a formidable north-south East Coast hub? Not everyone in the Northeast is going nonstop to Florida. There are plenty of people going BUF-SAV and BDL-PNS as AA proved in CLT and Delta proves in ATL every day.
The Metro goes to IAD now and a hole lot more people live out there than in the ’80’s, when local originating boardings were a lot less.
It’s expensive and complicated to operate a giant hub out of EWR.
So by every measure I can think of, IAD out to be going great guns. But UA has chosen to put its resources into bolstering EWR over IAD, both as a transatlantic gateway, and a Northeast-to-Southeast hub.
The only explaination I can think of is that no matter how anyone ran the numbers, IAD is just inherently too expensive to operate out of, given its physical layout, and its governing and financing arrangement.
Way back when, when BWI, DCA, and IAD were put under a grand “metropolitan” governing body, so that they wouldn’t compete against each other, a la the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, there was a moment of hope that air travel in the Greater DC area would be rationaized.
Now, with AA controlling CLT, DCA, and PHL, I just can’t imagine Congress will find the interest in doing anything that will help UA at what will inevitably be AA’s expense.
“…The President can’t commit $22 billion that congress hasn’t appropriated….”
I don’t think that’s ever mattered.
@Scott
Interesting comment, but then again you are objective and have experience.
The others like @1990 & @Ray amongs others just hate our current president. Who know maybe 45 / 47 will get some wealthy friends and philanthropers to donate some money toward the build. Or maybe he is just interested.
@Gary – Either way it was a very good article, most of the comments not so much.
Tim: “I can’t read data but you’re wrong and I’m right and I win….”
Also Tim please produce your proof of:
1. “UA”s CEO has admitted that UA cannot achieve DL’s level of profitability while competing with AA, DL and WN In the domestic market – and now DL to a growing degree in the TPAC.”
2. Do the math and show us that the gap is widening between UA and DL. None of us are saying UA is more profitable than DL – which you keep stating. What we are saying is they are closing the gap, you’ve said that if you exclude some non-operational elements then DL is doing better – do the math for us with data rather than just saying its the case.
We frequently present data to you and you just deny it outright.
Also and this is just a logic question for you, If UA is growing pretty much everywhere and DL is going backwards pretty much everywhere, do you think thats sustainable? Who do you think is then going to capture more card spend in the future if these trends continue? And overall why do you think this is the case? Why is Delta losing passengers and its not just a capacity thing, UA load factors increased while Delta’s have decreased, so why is Delta losing passengers?
Also I don’t own stock in any of the companies (I live near a UA hub so it is a home airline for me but thats my only vested interest here), I flow both airlines regularly but UA more because I’m at a hub. But honestly I couldn’t give a crap about their stock market valuations.
for someone that claims you use data, you prove how 1. you are either so biased that you can’t tell the truth if it hit you up the side of the head or 2. you are just plain ignorant and don’t even know where to find the data.
DL grew capacity 1% in the 2nd quarter and in the 1st half of the year.
All the rest of your drivel isn’t even worth responding to when you can’t even get the basic facts straight.
you don’t have to worry about stock market valuations; but then don’t talk about financials and tell us which ones you want to track and which you don’t care about.
@Michael Mainello — So, not ‘communist’ or ‘TDS’ this time? Just ‘hate.’ Eh, mediocre. You can do better. Tell the good folks how you really feel!
LTD says, “They just added a bunch of cash as a financial cushion that they might repay at some point in the future – which is why their net debt went down.”
Look who gets net debt. It’s amazing that UA reduced net debt by $2.7b more than DL in the last 12 months while adding 59 more net aircraft than DL. United is crushing it. It’s just a matter of time.
@1990 – meh. Everyone here knows your true self.
rebel still doesn’t understand that net debt includes cash and UA’s net debt numbers are going to look good right after they pulled down a bunch of cash – at the expense of debt.
UA has massive order books w/ huge amounts of near term deliveries and, combined w/ high fuel prices, UA’s cash generation is not sufficient to ensure they can meet their obligations which is why they pulled down cash at the expense of debt.
Like everything else, rebel can’t admit that UA’s financial position is not as good as DL’s which has much deeper lines of credit and carries a pretty low amount of cash because of its lines of credit.
don’t worry, though. Wall Street gets it which is why UAL’s market cap relative to DAL’s continues to fall; they understand that net debt is not the end all metric but rather the abililty to generate profits even with higher debt and regardless of the cash held.
LTD says, “UA has massive order books w/ huge amounts of near term deliveries and, combined w/ high fuel prices, UA’s cash generation is not sufficient to ensure they can meet their obligations which is why they pulled down cash at the expense of debt.”
You don’t understand what accretive means either do you? Poor LTD.
The deal UA got on the 600+ Covid aircraft were so good that those deliveries will be accretive paying UA dividends for years to come because the price of those aircraft have soared. UA is over 40% larger internationally than DL with 57 more wide body aircraft currently and 130 new ones coming in the next five years compared to just 54 for DL. The 787-10 is perfect for Europe, and UA will have 75 of them before DL gets its first one in 2031. Domestically, UA will be upgauging dramatically and retiring 100+ aircraft by YE2027. 1,000 aircraft with Starlink by YE2026 and all the wide body aircraft before next summer. Times are great at United.
Net Debt: UAL/DAL in $b
Q3 ’25: 22.4/15.6
Q4 ’25: 19.2/14.3
Q1 ’26: 18.8/13.5
Q2 ’26: 17.7/13.6 TTM ∆: 4.7/2.0 = UA 2.7b more in net debt reduction in last 12 months than DL
Mainline aircraft TTM net change: UA grew fleet by 59 more aircraft
UA: 83
DL: 24
In 2026 United:
$200m > DL in net income
$2.3b > DL in cash flow
$1.8b > DL in free cash flow + 56 net aircraft vs +15 for DL
– $263m net debt vs + $51m net debt for DL in Q2
UA & DL both around 2x net leverage
UA & DL average fleet age both 15.1 years
@Michael Mainello — Hit ’em with that ‘demon-rats’-thing. See if that’ll stick this time…
@1990 – Sure thing comrade. I wouldn’t want to upset the DSA.
How is all the free stuff that mamdami is promising working? Are you going to have to pay more in taxes or are you taker, pro-voter ID man.
you can follow this article all the way into the basement, rebel, but you still don’t understand basic principles of economics and accounting.
UA is taking delivery of more aircraft NOW than they can generate cash to pay for those airplanes, so their debt including leases are increasing.
Further, UA has drawn down debt in order to increase its cash reserves – a prudent step given the size of UA’s capex and volatile fuel prices.
nobody said that those new aircraft won’t make money for UA in the long term and reduce their costs compared to current generation aircraft but UA CAN’T PAY FOR THEM IN CASH NOW WHICH IS WHY THEY ARE BORROWING MONEY.
feel free to tell us what UA is getting its airplanes for compared to AA, DL, WN and other bluechp customers – even before considering Ryanair and others.
and DL already does have and will have even lower maintenance costs in the future which more than offsets up front reductions in the cash price of airplanes.
you simply are unwilling to understand basic economics because you are incapable of admitting that someone else might – and likely is doing something better than UA.
you are to be pitied for selling your soul to defend a corporation
@Michael Mainello — NYC is better than ever. Visit anytime. Remind the good folks on Wall Street that they’re apparently ‘commies,’ now…
@1990 – Sure thing comrade oligarch. Do you ride the subway and buses or are you chauffeured around?
Remember, some people are more equal than others.
You did not answer my question about taxes, but that is par for the course.
ID to vote? I mean in NYC it really doesn’t matter the DSA or Democrat Party cheats at will. The party learned well from the mafia.
UA cash and equivalents is up $3.3b in the TTM
UA debt & lease obligations up $0.7b in the TTM
UA took delivery of 87 new aircraft in the TTM
Sorry little fella. You are simply & demonstrably wrong.
@Michael Mainello — Depends on the day and situation. All the above, really. On-foot, bicycle, Subway, bus, ferry, taxi, rideshare, even the ‘King Kong’ tramway to Roosevelt Island, and yes, chauffeur services like Blacklane, but only 2x a year, when using that nifty $100 semi-annual credit through the Citi Strata Elite; still waiting on the Blacklane and Blade (helicopter!) redemptions via BILT Cash (but, they’ve had “Coming Soon” on those for over 7 months now. Ugh.) Haven’t you followed any of my non-political commentary on this or other sites? Get with it!
As for voting, here, at least, NYC elections are administered by a bipartisan Board of Elections with equal numbers of Republican and Democratic commissioners.
On taxes, please consider seeking advice from a qualified accountant.
What other tropes you got?
rebel can’t grasp or admit that UA’s biggest capex is AHEAD of it.
Amazing how much he lovest to tout all those new deliveries coming and doesn’t realize that they don’t get into UA’s fleet because his kindergarten teacher is passing out cookies
@Tim Dunn, @rebel — Speaking of ‘cookies,’ settle it, once-and-for-all, Biscoff or stroopwaffle?
And you seem to have missed UA’s industry-leading FCF. How do you think United reduced its TTM net debt $2.7b more than Delta? UA has plenty of OCF & FCF. $2b more FCF than Delta in just the last six months. Poor little simpleton can’t follow the plot.
2026: OCF/Capex/FCF in $b (net aircraft added)
UAL: 6.4/3.0/3.4
AAL: 4.7/1.6/3.1
DAL: 4.0/2.7/1.4
Since 1/1/22: OCF/Capex/FCF in $b (net aircraft added)
UAL: 35.7/25.3/10.4 (+296 aircraft)
DAL: 31.6/22.2/9.4 (+188 aircraft)
yes, we know that UA has generated more cash by not paying its people industry wages.
And they borrowed to pay for the incoming deliveries GOING FORWARD. Remember those huge deliveries that you keep talking about.
OREOS, rebel. Mint OREOS
rather, 1990, Mint OREOS
@Tim Dunn — Bah! Yum! (Ok, real talk, bring back the Vego Bears; these Albanese gummies are not ‘doin-it’ for me like the old ones were…)
The UA flight attendant contract was ratified and became effective in May. UA mechanics have had industry-leading pay all along despite just reaching a tentative agreement. 4 of 7 IAM employee groups ratified their contracts and the other three are back in negotiations. Even with all that DAL CASM-ex was up 11% than UA in Q2 which leaves it 7% higher.
Sorry, that old tired dog of yours still don’t hunt. UA’s industry-leading FCF will be plenty along with those accretive aircraft deliveries.
and yet UA’s stock price relative to DL’s keeps dropping, rebel.
You just can’t accept that Wall Street understands that UA is a second rate airline and business to DL.
Poor LTD. That’s what you should say instead of all the nonsense you like to spew. It’s just a matter of time.
sad that someone sells their soul to a corporation and then goes into fits of rage followed by depression when actual facts are presented.
The market is forward looking and their assessment of UA relative to DL is deteriorating. Debt and huge capex while generating less revenue than your chief competitor will do that.
Such obvious and dramatic projection. It’s just a matter of time little fella.
@Tim Dunn, @rebel — “fits of rage followed by depression”… turn those frowns upside down, fellas. It’s a new day. (Just finished another round of 18-holes with Mitch. He says he’s got a ‘big announcement’ in the coming days/weeks…) Happy weekend!
“Annual $1.4 billion interest expense” is false and misleading. $1.4 billion is the entire yearly payment, of which almost $1.01 billion is interest for the first year and the interest decreases every year. I checked the numbers with an amortization calculator.