President Trump has declared that U.S. airlines will allow U.S. airlines to fly non-stop to Lebanon. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy quickly responded, “You got it, Mr. President.”
You got it, Mr. President 🫡 pic.twitter.com/lzcv9kgdPG
— Secretary Sean Duffy (@SecDuffy) July 21, 2026
No U.S. airline is clamoring to fly to Beirut. However, the first step would be lifting the ban. What Duffy may not realize is that he’s not the one with the action item on this!
- President Reagan issued Presidential Determination 85-14 following the hijacking of TWA flight 847 in 1985, concluding that Lebanon was acting inconsistently with the Hague Convention against aircraft hijacking due to its failure to take the hijackers into custody or prosecute them, failure to restore control of the aircraft, and the lack of effective governmental control and security at Beirut airport.
- That order suspended the authority of U.S. airlines to provide transportation to or from Lebanon, including direct operations (and initially even interlining, this restriction was lifted by President Clinton in 1998).
The President has the authority under 49 U.S.C. §40106(b) to suspend airline authority when a country fails to comply with the anti-hijacking convention or shelters organizations using aircraft hijacking as a policy instrument. That suspension lasts as long as the president considers necessary. So what has to happen is a presidential determination amending or revoking the 1985 suspension and directing DOT to implement it. It’s the President’s action item (and that of his staff), not the DOT Secretary’s.
Credit: SCHW via Wikimedia Commons
There Are Safety Issues Flying To Beirut
The U.S. government doesn’t even rate the safety of Lebanese aviation. EASA, Europe’s regulator, issued a bulletin on July 8 covering the Beirut Flight Information Region at every altitude indicating that Lebanon has not demonstrated effective proactive airspace deconfliction. It characterizes the risk to civil aircraft as high, and recommends that airlines not enter Lebanese airspace at all. The current bulletin runs through August 31, 2026.
That doesn’t ban U.S. airlines from flying to Lebanon, but none are going to do it because the safety issues are real, because they have insurers, and because their pilots will object.
Beirut was once known as the Paris of the Mideast. It was one of the last trips I cancelled going into the pandemic, home to extraordinary food, history, a gorgeous seaside setting and worthwhile archaeological sites. Did you know that its flag carrier Middle East Airlines was recruiting female pilots in 1993?
Its economy has been in collapse since 2019. The Lebanese banking system is insolvent. Its currency has lost 98% of its value. Hezbollah remains armed and politically powerful. While the Lebanese government is formally pursuing its disarmament as part of a U.S.-brokered framework (hence the President’s pronouncement, which came along with a trade deal, about bringing back air travel), they remain a threat.
Lebanon controls the Beirut Flight Information Region and its air traffic control system, but Hezbollah places aircraft at risk and doesn’t give the government a heads up when they’re going to fire rockets.
Beirus Is A Tiny Market
Beirut airport had only 1,890 transit passengers all last year. This is not a connecting hub. While the airport saw 7 million passengers in 2025, there were only 2 million in the first half of this year. They may end up the year with fewer passengers than Boise.
The latest U.S. census lists 685,672 people as Lebanese. That’s concentrated mostly in Detroit and Dearborn, Michigan.
There’s basically zero corporate demand. There’s potentially visiting friends and relatives (‘VFR’) traffic, which will cluster around summer and the major holidays. It will be economy cabin heavy, and carry a lot of checked bags.
Who Would Fly There If They Had To?
The existing market is well-served on a one-stop basis by carriers like Turkish and Emirates. However, if a U.S. airline were to try this market under pressure from the President or Secretary of Transportation, I’d expect a three times-weekly Boeing 787-8 from Newark (United) or Detroit (Delta).
- Detroit has the largest local market, though it’s not large. While passengers do not much connect in Beirut, Delta does has a SkyTeam partner based there.
- United’s Scott Kirby has been most willing to stroke the ego of the administration. Like Delta, United gave $1 million to President Trump’s inauguration. But Kirby spoke in defense of tariffs, blamed the Democrats for last fall’s government shutdown, and went on the Deputy White House Chief of Staff’s wife’s podcast.
United is also most willing to try new oddball routes. However, there’s little question they could do better with an aircraft elsewhere.
The good news for airlines is that this is likely one of those situations where either the President doesn’t actually mean what he posted, or he’ll quickly forget he posted it. U.S. carriers don’t actually have to offer Beirut service, unless Sean Duffy reminds Trump he encouraged it.
I would imagine you would see Air Canada fly to Beirut from Montreal before any US carrier made an attempt. I’m old enough to remember when AC was going to fly YUL-BEY and somehow the US government forced the Canadian government to make them cancel the route, one day before the first flight.
“or he’ll quickly forget he posted it.” That.
Air Canada planned to launch direct service from Montreal in June 2003, but the Canadian government canceled the license just days before the inaugural flight due to security concerns. That was in 2003.
@pilot93434 — Wait, what year? 3rd time’s the charm.
Scott Kirby also trash talked the DOT Secy for how badly they run ATC and now kisses up by saying how great EWR runs after the DOT slashes capacity at EWR.
and the DOT thought it worked so well that they expanded the cuts and caps to ORD and SFO.
and JFK is running better than EWR on yet another horrible travel day in the NE
I’m sure UA can come up w/ a 737 MAX 8 in domestic configuration to serve Beirut
> he’ll quickly forget he posted it
Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! 🙂
I’m gonna agree with @1990 and go with forget.
No way this is happening until Iran is freed from the Islamic Regime and Lebanon ceases to be a proxy state overrun by Hezbollah thugs.
He should take a flight there
Anyone who wants to fly there can take Turkish to Istambul and then on. Why take a US carrier?
I mean, I expect Delta to take the mythical nonstop flight to India before it starts offering flights to Beirut for 500K SkyPesos
@Christian — It’s half T.A.C.O. and half “Person, woman, man, camera, TV”…
@Jon F — Seriously. ATL-DEL is probably mid-to-late 2027 at best, because Delta is still waiting on the 35K. @Tim Dunn can sugar-coat this all he wants, but Delta is missing out on a major revenue stream by not having capable aircraft in-service sooner, especially given the geopolitical realities (Russian airspace still closed, so their existing 359 doesn’t have the range; plus, demand is super-high for nonstop US-India, avoiding the Middle East conflict). Meanwhile, United (and Air India) are laughing all the way to the bank.
@Common Sense — Please, by all means, may the good and decent everyday peoples of those countries rise up and free themselves from their corrupt, vicious oppressors.
1990
the 359 is far more capable than the 787-9; DL could fly NYC to India as AA and UA do but DL wants to serve India markets that AA and UA can’t do.
DL also flew multiple flights to the Middle East the way before 9/11 but dropped most of those – with UA picking some up but no US carrier including UA still flying to some of them, like CAI.
Jon loves to talk about DL’s high business class redemption rates but he won’t acknowledge that DL made 2X as much as UA did in the 2nd quarter.
Air travel including via redemptions is not a charity if done by for-profit companies which all US carriers are.
If there is a market for Lebanon and it is safe, DL will fly it. in contrast, UA has a long history of touting that it has a larger network that it can’t turn into a financial advantage despite the fact that UA is also a for-profit business
Pacific PRASM YOY UAL/DAL: +14.0%/+7.0%
In 2026 DL 34% higher cancellation rate
United: $200m > DL in net income $2.3b > DL in cash flow
$1.8b > DL in free cash flow
+ 56 net aircraft vs +15 for DL
– $263m net debt vs + $51m net debt for DL in Q2
UA & DL both around 2x net leverage
UA & DL average fleet age both 15.1 years
Fleet size 2016/2026:
UA: 737/1,122 +385/52%
AA: 930/1,030 +100/11%
DL: 832/1,004 +172/21%
US domestic mainline market share (passengers) 2016/2025
DL: 16.4%/17.8%, +9%
AA: 17.2%/17.3%, +1% SW:18.2%/16.9%, -7%
UA: 13.0%/16.6%, +28%
Q1 2026: Net Income/OCF/Capex/FCF in $b
DL: 1.6/1.6/1.4/0.2
UA: 0.8/1.6/1.3/0.3
1st Half 2026: Net Income/OCF/Capex/FCF in $b
UAL: 1.5/6.4/3.2/3.2
DAL: 1.3/4.1/2.7/1.4
Since 1/1/22: OCF/Capex/FCF in $b (net aircraft added)
UAL: 35.7/25.3/10.4 (+296 aircraft)
DAL: 31.6/22.2/9.4 (+188 aircraft)
AAL: 17.3/12.4/4.9
SWA: 9.5/12.7/-3.2
@Tim Dunn — Well then, Delta would need to finally invest in a 350-base at JFK, now wouldn’t it… Those aging 767s and a330s aren’t gonna be around forever. What’s an ETA on all that? Seems overdue, unless Delta in NYC is just gonna be domestic/US-Europe (and a little S. America), indefinitely. (And, let’s not pretend JFK-TLV is the ‘Asia’ we’re really talking about here.)
Delta — if they wanted — could do a Detroit-Beirut-Amman flight. That might be complicated but it would probably be sufficiently busy.
rebel,
you, as usual, can’t accept that DL made the right choice on the A350; the 359 is a more capable and efficient aircraft than the 789 even before the 350-1000s arrive.
good for all of the numbers you vomit up. You obviously exclude the one that matters the most which is that UA made half of what DL made in the 2nd quarter.
you also forget that the profits UA has made so far have been boosted by sale-leaseback transactions which boost income but increase debt. Your cherrypicked datapoints never will allow you to see the full and accurate picture.
1990,
DL will restart service from NYC to Asia – both East and South Asia and will base the 350 there. DL has a large amount of new widebody capacity coming over the next few years.
The 330CEO will get new Delta One Suites starting this fall which means DL expects them to be around for another 8-10 years; the 339s are very capable and comfortable aircraft and the 333s will be almost identical in comfort with likely more premium seats. the 332s will be the higher performance small widebody for places where the 763 can go down.
and the real takeaway from DL’s addition of NYC to Asia flights – which might also include BOS to Asia – is that DL will take away the one advantage UA has from NYC which is its Asia flights.
DL is very focused on doing a strategy at a time and LAX int’l growth is first and foremost right now but JFK-ICN is certain to be the first of a number of JFK to Asia routes.
btw, have you seen that DL has used the 359 on several flights between JFK and LAX? puts everything else on the transcons to shame
@Tim Dunn — Looking forward to experiencing it all, hopefully by the 2030s.
“ hopefully by the 2030s”
LMAO.
United is further accelerating the Starlink schedule. 1,000 UA/UAX aircraft by the end of the year and all the wide body aircraft before next summer. Watch those NPS go.
Using it right now on an E175. It’s amazing. Better than my WiFi at home. Flawless and so quick and easy to get on.
Well, you can always fly into Lancaster or Harrisburg instead.
@rebel — Ok, maybe my ‘2030s’ comment was a bit ‘on the nose’… but, if you really must bring up WiFi, let’s recall United’s lack of free WiFi for frequent flyers until 2026 (and not on all aircraft yet), while Delta has had it since 2023 (except 717 and regionals), and jetBlue since 2017 (on mainline), regardless of service provider. I’ve been griping about this for a while, and side with B6 and DL, more so than UA and AA, which honestly have been ‘late to the party’ on that specific topic.
No, I think you’re right on the $. The 2030s is when it might all come back together for DL.
Starlink is a completely different animal that makes calling Viasat ‘high speed’ seem silly.
ching Tim Dunn get slaughtered by people on these forums each day, on a post about United or Delta, didn’t expect to see it on a post about Beirut but here you go another day of bad TD logic and responders using actual data to refute him…
Perhaps there is an opportunity to expand the beach resorts there. I’m sure we’ll read about a gold-plated something or other showing up. It’s a perfect fit next to the Albanian legit deal.
effective proactive airspace deconfliction? What is that? Is the airport to have its own Patriot missiles?
@jack the ladd — Sure sounded like a euphemism for lack of an Iron Dome. Besides, these days, it’s the cheap drones they really need to worry about.
@Tim Dunn:
“(T)he 359 is far more capable than the 787-9; ”
Obviously, its a much bigger plane with higher costs as well.
Distraction because our Middle East policy and endless wars are going great.
@Steve — “Great,” again… LOL.