Actual Data Tells You When To Buy Tickets To Save The Most On Airfare

Google and Expedia both looked at when it’s cheapest to book tickets and is it any surprise that Google’s answers are more credible? Google found that it largely doesn’t matter, while Expedia says it’s up to 15% cheaper to book on Sundays. At least they didn’t claim “12:01 a.m. Tuesday morning when holds expire” or similar nonsense.

Based on several years of search data on Google Flights, Google found at most a 1.9% variance in price based on what day you book. But they concluded when you book does not actually matter, except that:

  • You want to book a month or two in advance for the best deals, and even further out (around two and a half months) for holiday trips. U.S. – Europe has historically been cheapest 4-6 months out from travel. Of course some of these patterns have changed since the onset of the pandemic.

  • And if you want to save money, gaming when to book your ticket isn’t going to yield value, but avoiding peak travel days (Thursday – Sunday) and willingness to take connecting itineraries is how you’ll save money.

United Airlines actually looked at its own internal data three years ago and found some interesting things.

  • Customers booking on Saturdays and Sundays got lower fares, on average, than those booking on weekdays. It’s not that lower fares are offered on those days, though. It’s just that leisure passengers book on weekends when they have the time while business travelers book during the week at work. Fewer expensive business fares are being booked on the weekend, so the average fares on those days are lower.

  • The least expensive day to travel is Tuesday. It’s still true (even with increased work from anywhere and extended weekends) that Tuesday is a lighter travel day than Sunday or Monday. Less demand for seats means there’s more seats to unload at a discount. Tuesdays and Wednesdays have usually been cheaper days to travel than

  • The cheapest tickets are purchased between 6 a.m. and Noon. Fares are more likely to go up during the day than to go down, although the effect is very small. And when the cheapest tickets are purchased isn’t the same thing as when the lowest fares are offered.

In addition to buying in advance, and considering trips on days and routes that are less in demand, three things you can do to actually save money are:

  1. Know how much tickets usually cost on your route. That way you know when prices are higher or lower than normal. If they’re lower, consider buying. If they’re higher, if there’s no obvious holiday or special event driving demand, and if there’s plenty of time before the trip, it can be advisable to wait.

  2. Don’t buy too far in advance. Often lowest discount inventory isn’t loaded for flights a year in advance when schedules load. The only time to book super early is for peak holiday travel days where flights do sell out and what limited inexpensive inventory might be available goes early. It’s usually not a good idea to book travel more than six months out. Besides there will likely be schedule changes if you do (although those can be advantageous if you’re booking cheap tickets for inconvenient times and want flexibility to change – or cancel for a refund).

  3. Request fare difference refunds. For tickets without change fees, keep checking prices after you’ve booked. Then if the price falls you can call up and request a voucher for the difference.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. Come on Gary…this is just clickbait. The title says “Actual data shows when to buy tickets” but the content says it really doesn’t make any meaningful difference. Stick to honest information,, something you are very good at usually.

  2. Your recommendation to “Don’t buy too far in advance” appears to be somewhat dated. Now that U.S.-based airlines no longer have a change fee what does it matter? If I buy a more expensive ticket and the price is then lowered I can cancel and rebook as long as I’m sure I can use the residual value of the cancelled ticket.

  3. US airlines no longer have a change fee? Yes, for now, but you can bet on it that they will be back.

  4. Gary: This is just an edit for your disclosures at the bottom:

    Change “nor legal” to “or legal”.
    Alternative: Change “nor” to …. . “Nor are..”.
    Alt: Change earlier “not” to “neither” and keep the “nor”. [but this is really for “neither an a nor a b”]

    (I edit for a living. So caught this.)

    You wrote: “View from the Wing is a project of Miles and Points Consulting, LLC. This site is for entertainment purpose only. The owner of this site is not an investment advisor, financial planner, nor legal or tax professional and articles here are of an opinion and general nature and should not be relied upon for individual circumstances. ….”

    [this is a common mistake]
    [sorry for putting this in a comment. couldn’t find a “contact us” for such technical, boring communications.]

    Yours is my favorite blog for the last decade+. Cheers.

  5. Love the post. Please do a blog on motorcycle travel miles and points and the people who love them. I think that you should participate in the Hard Butt motorcycle ride which is 1000 miles in 24 hours. Anyplace to anywhere a thousand miles away in 24 hours on a motorcycle. You would have major street cred.

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