When I’m traveling I almost always try to predict whether my flight will be delayed. That can give me an hours-long head start in getting re-routed, rather than stuck at the airport. I’ll have access to more flight choices, especially if I can leave earlier. And I won’t be fighting with as many passengers over a limited number of seats, since I’ll be ahead of them in grabbing what’s available – and with full planes, that’s often very little.
That means looking up:
- Where my plane is coming from, not just the city the aircraft is flying in from but its whole routing for the day.
- Weather in the area, as well as along the route for the aircraft that day.
- Airport conditions, and any FAA notices.
I’ll Google my flight number and then look up the flight at Flightradar24.com. That lets me select the aircraft’s registration number and look up where that aircraft is going, flight by flight. (Flightaware.com also has a link for ‘Track inbound plane’ which shows you where the plane is coming from – keep choosing it over and over to see the day’s journey.)
These sites overlay weather, though I’ll look up weather in each city. They also show airport delays. And I look up any National Airspace Notices that may involve delay programs for an airport (or can be airline-specific).
Time and again I’ll identify risks to my travel day. This isn’t foolproof.
- It doesn’t tell you where your crew is coming from. Your plane may be fine, but it might not have crew.
- Planes go mechanical. And a likely delay – say that your flight is running an hour behind, but your airline hasn’t posted a delay of your flight yet – doesn’t always translate into an actual delay. For instance it might make up a few minutes here or there along the way (less likely if you see it is doing quick turns in each city) or a different plane might be assigned at a hub along the way.
Still, when I see I’m probably delayed, I’ll often call the airline with a suggestion for another flight I might take. I use Expert Flyer to look up availability of seats – but you can just search your airline’s website (or Expedia) for seats for sale between the cities where you’re trying to travel. That way I am more likely to get where I’m going that day.
It may seem like a lot of work, consulting different places to predict delays – and it’s all probabilistic. Fortunately for those who aren’t used to picking up bits and pieces of information from a number of sites, the Flighty app now does it for you.
Flighty is using aviation authority data and machine learning to provide early warnings of delays, and when a delay is official, the reason for the delay. Most delays are due to airspace issues and late aircraft, both of which Flighty will monitor.
The app is able to predict delays “hours in advance,” and give information to Flighty users that airlines often decline to share. The result is more control over travel plans.
I like being on top of this because airlines frequently give you little information, or subject you to rolling delays. Your flight might show on time when you know that’s impossible because it’s boarding time and the aircraft isn’t even at the gate yet – and will still need to deplane passengers from the last flight before boarding yours. I don’t have to waste time at the gate. I can stay in the lounge longer.
This is an Apple ecosystem app, free to download, but delay features are part of their Pro subscription version ($4 per week or $48 per year).
Here is a much easier two-step plan.
1. If your trip is critical, book your arrival 1 day early.
2. If your general time is so valuable (e.g. because you are a share partner at K&E), your firm has 24/7 corporate travel agents doing all the flight tracking and rebooking for you, and you just need to monitor your phone for instructions (“ASAP go to gate x.”)
I don’t worry about flight delays.
Thanks, I did not know about this. The free version has tons of info.
This is where having a lounge membership (in the US) is very, very beneficial. Most of the time they will allow you to proactively rebook without a hassle, not waiting for your flight to actually get cancelled or delay. Now paramount is that you have an alternative flight(s) selected, know there’s open seats in the cabin you’re flying and have your desired (open) seat assignment. DO NOT expect that they will proactively look for options if you’re flight is yet not cancelled or not delayed. The latter when in all likelihood it’s going to be.
Calling into an even an elite customer service line, assuming you can even get through, is unpredictable. Sometimes the agent is agreeable and other times no change without a refare, unless again your flight is actually cancelled or you will have a misconnect.
Since I 90% of the time either buy premium or pay for a cash upgrade (now popular with the US3) I want to be able to avoid ending up in a coach middle seat. So I research my options ahead of time when there’s a chance things are going to be haywire.
I try this but Delta has other ideas. Friday evening was tracking inbound flight. On time and good. Then a plane change. No biggie, inbound is still on time. Then the 30 minute rolling deays start. Check again and yep, another plane change and this one is delayed for 2 hours. No gate announcements so I let everybody know what’s happening. Been the case about every third evening flight out of Delta.
I do what you do. But 9/10, I call the airline and tell them what I’m seeing and ask if they want to proactively rebook me or – could they just look at what I’m seeing and be more honest with their customers. For example, I was on a UA flight that was listed as “on time” (while I’m at airport) but inbound equipment is due to land 10 minutes before our flight is taking off – no possible way we can be on-time. But they say the info is wrong… they have other equipment… yada yada yada. Flight arrived when flightaware said it would… equipment didn’t change… and my flight WAS, in fact, late.
Had same problem with AA on my last flight earlier this month – so they are equally bad at spotting obvious problems and being proactive.
Regarding corporate travel agents (and as a former equity partner in a a top law firm), my experience was that no one takes care of your travel arrangements as well as you can do yourself, if you are the sort of person who bothers to learn the tricks of flying from FT and blogs like these.
And I could get as much work done in a lounge as at my desk at the office.
Or you can just call your travel agent, if you bought the ticket from them in the first place! A good agent will take charge and get you to your destination a lot faster than standing in long lines of angry disconnected passengers!
If you are standing in line, you are probably not a frequent flyer and not knowledgeable, so a travel agent is maybe good in that case.
Be sure to turn down the volume on your phone before launching the Flighty app. On my Android phone it repeatedly activates a LOUD video game ad.
On Monday, this precise issue arose. We woke up with a 2.5 hour delay for a flight that was not scheduled for 10 hours. Ultimately, SWA switched a plane in by flying an empty one up from BHM and we departed right on time. One family in our traveling party had jumped the gun though, and changed their reservation too early. So, the early bird doesn’t *always* get the worm.
I’m surprisingly disappointed nobody posted: How To Predict Your Flight Will Be Delayed? Fly [fill in an airline you hate].
Or you could just download the flighty app and let it do all the research for you without having to manually look it up yourself on flight tracking websites. They somehow know when your flight is going to be delayed way before the airline officially announces the delay.