With USAirways in bankruptcy and United next, it’s time for all of the “I told you so” comments. Well, here’s my “I should have been able to tell you so.” Why should I have seen it with greater clarity? Because of a change in the insurance industry. Insurance companies are generally pretty savvy. As a class (abstracting away from particular insurance companies), they are very good at analyzing risk. After September 11th, the following was inserted into many travel policies:

We will not pay a claim that arises because of any of the following:
You incur any costs or losses arising from the failure of any travel agent, tour operator, accommodation provider, airline or other carrier, car rental agency or any other travel or tourism services provider to provide services or accommodation due to their Insolvency or the Insolvency of any person, company or organization they deal with.

They were saying that a bankruptcy was pretty likely, so they weren’t going to cover the costs. Seems prescient now. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.