The U.S. economy appears to be slowing. And airlines are especially vulnerable. Businesses cut back on travel spending. Consumers see most leisure travel as discretionary. There’s been some pullback in airline schedules, and some lower fares in the market.
Now, according to aviation watchdog JonNYC, it appears that American Airlines has slowed its onboarding of flight attendants.
Not confirmed but from generally reliable person
“Apparently AA is suspending/pausing all flight attendant hiring and training for the entire summer due to travel demand uncertainty”
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 4:39 PM
I’d say it’s def true that:
– some are saying they received emails saying that all face to face interviews and training classes for the summer are being paused/pushed to later in the fall
— JonNYC (@xjonnyc.bsky.social) April 1, 2025 at 4:43 PM
It’s truly incredible to watch the U.S. self-destruct its growth trajectory in real time, in ways that are obvious to nearly all observers, and to do so willingly.
I run a trade deficit with my local HEB supermarket. I give them money and they give me food. Imports work the same way. We gain access to the products we need and want, for less, which means we have more money leftover to buy other things – which also gets cycled into the economy driving growth. It also spurs competition. Wealthy countries buy more and often have trade deficits.
Increased tariffs are leading to uncertainty. They’re supposed to benefit U.S. auto manufacturers, yet the stock prices of those companies have been headed down. And tariff levels don’t correlate across countries with levels of trade deficits. It’s indisputable that Smoot-Hawley tariffs deepened the Great Depression, while trade liberalization has driven economic growth.
Here’s what conservatives like Ronald Reagan and Thomas Sowell explain about tariffs:
So does our greatest living economist. pic.twitter.com/DmejEhsns7
— Matt W (@bigredmatt1011) April 1, 2025
Meanwhile, over the last month here’s what the Atlanta Fed’s projection of first quarter GDP has looked like as tariff talk has heated up:
As I’ve noted, this is very bad for the world, but not for everyone in equal ways. It could actually mean good times for frequent flyers spending their miles!
That’s because there will be fewer miles as a result of lower credit card spending resulting from reduced economic activity, which means less competition for award seats, and there will be more unsold airline seats to liquidate as saver awards as a result of reduced demand for air travel.
Putting tariffs on imports – harming ourselves – because other countries harm themselves is like Cleavon Little putting a gun to his own head in Blazing Saddles. And the townspeople of Rock Ridge react, “Hold it men, he’s not bluffing! He’s just crazy enough to do it!”
Update: American Airlines tells me that cancelling on job candidates is because they’ve filled all their spots. A spokesperson offers, therefore, that this round of interview cancellations is unrelated to the direction of the macroeconomy.
We’ve met our annual flight attendant hiring goals ahead of the summer travel season — hiring more flight attendants this year than we did in 2024. Many of these new talented flight attendants are already flying with us, and we look forward to welcoming many more to American over the next couple of months.
The implication here is that they regularly schedule interviews knowing that they won’t actually keep the appointments.
“Just” got real? Oh, Gary… where have you been.
Don’t you know, today is ‘Liberation Day,’ where our Dear Leader will place more tariffs (taxes that we will ultimately pay) on nearly everything, raising prices by 20-30%, all while having been elected on ‘affordability’ (price of eggs, etc.) Truly, ‘great’ again.
But, hey, as you said in your other recent post: Think of all the deals!
(“No politics! We just want the jobs the meteor will bring…”)
Been saying it for years now: I can’t wait for a recession. And I’m ready.
Good, the less OPM flyers the better for the rest of us.
Elite qualifying promos, less upgrade competition, all good things.
Now, where’s @Mike P to celebrate Gary’s citing of (uncle) Tom Sowell. After all, he is a fellow of the Hoover Institution, you know, the President who lead us INTO the Great Depression (yet they still find a way to blame Democrats… who lead us OUT of that horror). Yes, even Sowell (and Reagan) knew tariffs and trade wars against our (former) allies are harmful to Americans and the economy. #45/47 is repeating the bad lessons we should have learned from history. We’re all going to pay.
Come on, Gary, you know very well that the *reciprocal* tariffs are simply a negotiating tactic to get other countries to lower their tariffs. It is not anyone’s desired new normal. Of course there will be uncertainty, but other countries will soon cave and come to negotiating table, because they know they will feel more pain than us. But we can’t be like a spineless democrat and give up now, it must be a credible threat on continuing the policy. In the end, lower tariffs on both ends will be the result to the benefit of us all, as both you and Reagan say.
@ 1990 — Don’t you pay attention to the news? Fair and Balanced reported that the new administration is struggling with the weakened econony they inherited! The oligarchs are suffering.
This is not the only reason. People do less traveling on airplanes because of corporate greed, with legroom so small that it makes you think twice about buying an economy seat. Division into many classes, the fact that you have to surrender all your rights on the plane also plays a big role, bathrooms size of coffin, no food on planes, attendants who can better fit as jail guards. I can keep going, but it is no use. Let’s say unfriendly practices, that is what leads to reduced attendance.
I have been wondering when someone would finally cite Cleavon Little to describe the tariff actions.
Thank you.
@Mantis – two things.
1. The idea that this is ‘just a negotiating tactic’ is belied by the president’s actual claims. Trump has argued that tariffs are vital for America’s long-term economic prosperity, claiming they will bolster domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports. He has described this as leading to a “Golden Age” for the U.S. economy. He has also framed tariffs as a tool to restore American manufacturing and generate substantial revenue to reduce deficits and even eliminate income taxes. Further, he credits tariffs with encouraging corporate investments in the U.S..
2. Even if they were a ‘negotiating tool’ see what I wrote in the post. Harming yourself if someone doesn’t stop harming themselves is stupid. It also doesn’t appear to work or correlate with actual trade deficits in the literature. Sparking trade wars has historically been really bad for the economy, ratching up tariffs isn’t a way to reduce trade barriers (which clearly isn’t the President’s goal in any case).
Gary, I don’t necessarily disagree with your comments but I think you omitted any substantive points about fighting for the US working class. There is no question that America has exported millions of good paying middle class jobs in the auto industry and many many other industries. These actions are already causing major corporations to bring production and jobs back on shore.
@Gene — Pardon my ignorance… when can an unelected South African centi-billionaire who is acting as our shadow President ‘catch a break’ these days… so sad. /s
@Eduard Azayev — I’m all about fighting the good fight against corporate greed, but this is not that story, at least on the macro-economic front; Gary’s post is about how our current President’s plans are going to wreck the economy. Yes, even the greedy corporations will suffer, too. Maybe they will learn to treat consumers better in the process. I doubt that, but I still hope.
@Mantis — How does the Flavor Aid taste? Oof. You’re in pretty deep, my dude. To still think He has ‘strategy’ or his paying ‘4D-chess’… no, it’s not tactics; it’s ignorance of history. The rest of the world is already continuing to trade amongst themselves, and with China, the direct and incidental beneficiary of His horrible policies. So, we’re actually abdicating soft and economic power to the CCP–and that should be horrifying to you and I (it is to me at least). Our own domestic production is not going to come back anytime soon–it takes years, if not decades, to get that infrastructure. There’s going to be a lot of unnecessary turbulence. It’s like purposely flying into a thunderstorm.
@David P — You suggest that the President cares about workers? Bah! I needed a good laugh. His whole brand is about ‘firing’ people. You must have never watched The Apprentice.
What jobs? Hiring is down. All sectors. Yes, in manufacturing. But also in well-paid desk-jobs. The only things that seem to still be in-need are plumbers (trades) and nurses. To everyone else, someone in Mumbai can do your job, or software (artificial intelligence, or some other form of automation).
Unless, that is, you will ‘humble yourself’ for manual labor at minimum wage, just like the Bible intended, so they will say. Indeed, those ‘nobody wants to work anymore’ types will happily exploit you for sub-$7.25/hour, which won’t help much with rent, healthcare, or food, but hey, at least you’re helping pick tomatoes for the party members, right?
The American Dream is indeed dead, and the President helped to kill it, once and for all. The only solution He and his Fox News central-casting spokespersons are providing is ‘scapegoats’ (to be mass deported to El Salvador without due process.) The question we should be asking ourselves is who will be blamed and vilified NEXT? I have my suspicions, based on history.
It didn’t have to be this way. We knew better.
Tariffs are silly, but they do not come close to the damage done by years of idiotic monetary policy pushed by the Federal Reserve and the wanton fiscal spending of both the last Trump presidency and the Biden administration.
For those with cash on hand and no debt, unparalleled opportunities will emerge in the next 12-18 months. It’s called an economic cycle, and we’re long overdue for a swoon lower. In the short term, holding off on booking award flights for late in the year and early 2026 travel as, like you said Gary, prices should drop, and noticeably so.
@1990, Yup! The president does care about workers. It’s actually the last president who did not care about workers unless they were part of the union member kick back scheme.
I fully understand that you can not see what is right before your eyes. That’s ok. Scoreboard will settle all. I have patience to watch the outcome over time.
Stick to kvetching about travel Gary. Your over simplified fiscal and political diatribe will bring out trolls from both sides.
And, FYI, starting off with the HEB analogy/example blew your credibilty out of the water.
Over at Thom Hartmann he suggests that the uber rich want a serious recession because they can easily weather it and then will scoop up everything at fire sale prices. Oh, and thanks to Citizens United and their increasing economic power that’s the end of any representative democracy too. And given how many lawsuits Trump has had for stiffing his workers it’s no surprise that this pathological liar (remember “A plan better than Obamacare” or how about “I’ll tax the rich till they hate me” for starters) cares nothing for how much harm he does here or abroad. But then neither does his puppet master Putin.
Of course when badly applied tariffs are self-destructive. If America had a plan to slowly bring in appropriate ones while training workers, investing in viable factories and encouraging unions to get decent wages we might turn things around. But now it’s just slash and burn. But most Americans don’t know all that much about economics–blaming Biden for inflation when it was the separate Federal Reserve that pumped money in during the pandemic to keep things running was never explained to them. Either we’ll throw out these vicious, hateful people and get a normal country that works again or it’s RIP for the USA.
you don’t have a trade imbalance with HEB unless you pay more than the listed price, Gary, or don’t take the products home you pay for. As noted, your credibility is hurt when you make statements like this.
It should be very concerning when a pres says he doesn’t care about the rise in the cost of cars as a result of tariffs because he thinks more cars will be made in the US in time. He might be right IN TIME but going through a recession to get there is not what any Americans voted for and the red team will be finished if they allow him to recklessly push that agenda.
AA is undoubtedly acting out of uncertainty. By fall, they will have more clarity about the future.
@Tim Dunn – “you don’t have a trade imbalance with HEB unless you pay more than the listed price, Gary”
That is simply wrong, Tim, you don’t seem to understand balance of payments accounting
@David P — Patience is all I have, and time will indeed tell. The current policies have nothing to do with any other President, so those excuses will not help you as we go forward. #47 will own this. It isn’t about my ‘willful ignorance’–no, my eyes are wide open, and I continue to respect empirical evidence over conspiracy theories and propaganda. Perhaps, it is you who is projecting here. And no, He does not care about workers–the current administration is of and for the billionaires. Unless you are already a centi-millionaire, you aren’t even ‘in the club,’ sir. Wake up.
@Phil C — No, this is Gary’s website; he can do whatever he wants with it (within reason). I disagree with his ‘hot takes’ plenty of times; we all can and should speak our minds here and elsewhere while we still can. However, when folks such as yourself suggest to ‘censor’ or ‘mute’ certain topics or specific people, that tells me that you are not here in good-faith, sir. It was those on ‘the right’ that blamed ‘cancel culture’ and pretended to care about ‘free speech’…that is, until they got power again; now, they want to quash anyone with differing views from theirs. How ironic and predictable. So, if you believe there are trolls, feel free to troll them back. Engage or ignore. That is the way.
On a personal level I’m currently planning Q2 and Q3 travel so selfishly hoping this uncertainty leads to lowering of airfare and hotel prices
@1990 — As soon as I saw Gary mention Thomas Sowell I thought of @Mike P too! Wonder what his opinion on all this is…
@Gary
1) Of course he will say he actually supports the higher tariffs. It’s not a credible threat unless they believe he is happy to continue with them, is it not?
2) Harming yourself a small amount in the short term (while harming them more) in order to get an more beneficial arrangement long term is absolutely logical. Your analogy is incorrect, though. They have been harming both themselves and us by placing higher tariffs on our goods. And yes, removing trade barriers is absolutely his goal, he’s been talking nonstop about how other countries like Canada, Mexico, and European countries have extremely high tariffs on our exports, while we have low tariffs on theirs. His goal is for them to lower tariffs on our exports. If by your logic he just likes high tariffs, then why would he make them reciprocal? And how else do you think we get others to lower their tariffs on our goods? Should we just ask nicely, maybe send them a few palettes of cash? If there’s anything we’ve learned from the Obama/Biden era, it’s that displaying weakness and fecklessness is not a good foreign policy.
I expected the brainwashed low IQ leftist drones here to take this stance, but not you. I predict within a few weeks we will start seeing negotiations to lower tariffs on both sides once they start to feel the pain.
@Mantis – So 47 admin talk about eliminating income taxes since those won’t be needed because of tariff inflows is also just a a bluff or head fake, but this time on the American people ?
@L737 — Oh yes, @Mike P should be pleased with Gary’s reference; that is, unless Mike cannot handle the cognitive dissonance of his savior, #47, being pro-tariff, and his other idol, Sowell, being anti-tariff. Uh oh! Then again, I haven’t seen him in a while, so maybe Mike has moved-on from VFTW. Aww, that’d be shame, because I enjoyed his misplaced quotes from historic figures.
I also have not seen the notorious anti-DEI culture-warrior, @Andy S, on here in a while. (Are these guys all the same person, but just switch their names around?) And then, there’s single-post commenters, like anti-trans activist @Michael Mainello (he came out real-strong on Gary’s post about the TSA changing its policies for front-line workers doing searches, back in February of this year, then he disappeared). Oh well. All are welcome, even those I passionately disagree with.
It’s called leveling the playing field.
an American Airlines B777 (depending upon which model) pays between $2284 & $4883 landing fees at London Heathrow. British Airways B777 pays approximately $205 landing fees at DFW. This has been the norm forever, for all those crying about how unfair it is for the U.S. to want fair trade give me a break.
It’s called leveling the playing field.
an American Airlines B777 (depending upon which model) pays between $2284 & $4883 landing fees at London Heathrow. British Airways B777 pays approximately $205 landing fees at DFW. This has been the norm forever, for all those crying about how unfair it is for the U.S. to want fair trade give me a break.
Maybe it has to do with tons of excessive, unprofitable flying that is finally catching up with airlines. Only so much can be set off by loyalty programs and partner income. You see these supposedly “frequent flyers” on this site and others that seem to think the way airlines can make money off a $49 fare is to buy more planes and sell more $49 seats. Math doesn’t work that way.
No surprise it’s starting with AA and Southwest.
@ James — The insane tax cuts and excess spending by Republicans, along with the complicit Federal Resrve policies over the past 45 years have destroyed the American middle class.
AA telling you, @Gary, that they reached their hiring levels is them saying we adjusted our hiring need of (ex) 10,000 FA’s to whatever number we have now and we’re good…
You are right to be concerned things are going south…. Anyone who thinks otherwise is dellusional.
What’s teh first thing people cut when financial issues arise? luxury/ travel spending items. This is just the beginning….. Mark my words.
gary,
instead of doubling down, just admit what you wrote was incorrect.
You originally spoke about trade and then try to pivot to a balance of payments.
Trade is a monetary exchange of goods or services.
You will never have a balance of payments surplus with any merchant unless you sell a service or product to them that they want to make.
Feel free to let us know what product or service HEB buys from you that exceeds the food you purchase.
George gets it. AA and WN have generated low single digit margins for years. Something has to give. As much as Gary wants us to believe that AA can make up for its transportation losses in major markets like NYC w/ credit card revenues, they clearly lag DL and UA in that market – and both ALSO get credit card revenues. DL probably gets the most given its larger size and that the average Amex cardholder spends more than Visa.
UA continues to be fixated w/ size and growth over maximizing profits which is why they cannot close the profit gap w/ DL despite 7 years of trying and even though nearly all unionized non-pilot UA employees will have amendable union contracts by this summer, giving UA a billion dollar/year cost advantage.
smaller carriers other than AS are not even in the realistic hunt for profits.
If the next few years hurt the US economically, there will be an industry shakeout
@Tim – again, you seem not to understand trade deficits.
If U.S. consumers buy something from – say – China… U.S. consumers are giving money to Chinese companies and receiving goods in return. That’s a trade deficit (if Chinese consumers of goods are not making equal, offsetting purchases from U.S. companies) and it has nothing to do with the specific price being paid. More money -> China than money from China.
And the same concept applies to my purchases from the grocery store. And by the way Jason Furman – Obama’s chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors – made this exact same point in the NYT a couple of days ago. I guess he doesn’t understand trade deficit accounting either.
gary,
your chinese example is correct.
Your HEB example is not.
You buy products from HEB. No consumer can have balanced trade w/ every store from which they buy. it may be theoretically accurate but practically impossible.
You don’t have a trade imbalance from a store which you frequent UNLESS you provide services to them in exchange for ANY part of their product.
Otherwise, you are simply a consumer.
@Tim Dunn – there is effectively no difference between HEB and China. They are both entities and trading partners. The HEB example underscores the absurdity of the trade deficit concept.
@Gene — On the Fed, since you brought it up, personally, I’m not opposed to reasonable interest rates, especially for those with some actual savings, who don’t necessarily want to invest it all in the stock market or bonds. Like, 3% interest on average is… ‘not great, not terrible’ (ah, a Chernobyl reference, one of my favorite series, if you haven’t seen it, excellent), but to go a decade at practically 0.01%-1%, even with certificates of deposit, was insane. No, it’s not the 1980s, and thankfully mortgage rates are not in the double-digits, for most. These days, I just hope that the Fed remains independent, because #47 seems to want near-0% rates, just to juice the economy so he ‘feels’ good about himself. If that were to happen, I’d be concerned that the result would be stagflation. It happened to President Carter; it can happen to anyone. That stuff topples regimes with or without a strong opposition.
@Tim Dunn @George N Romey — I take it that you two are more traditional, center-right on economics/taxation/corporate policy, regardless of social issues, etc., which is fine from 30,000 feet up, especially compared to the extremes on far-right (techno-monarchists) and far-left (‘eat the rich’). But, on the ground level, we’re talking about lives and livelihoods, and such ‘resizing’ at SW will definitely affect real people, sometimes real hard. Think of those layoffs at their Dallas headquarters (1,700+). For the crews, AA and SW at least have some union protections, so some front-line workers are going to be harder to ‘resize’ than others. Just saying, it’s not all about stock prices and bottom lines. Don’t forget the people.
Award flights to Europe are ridiculous right now. They want 200K each way for a business class fare. A couple years ago it was 70K. I go onto the airline website and the planes are very empty. Maybe it is because we are still 90 days out but I’m not booking at these insane prices. How long until they lower the fares to fill the seats? I hope soon. There will be deals out there with the uncertainty in the economy.
@Gary,
You had a choice last November and you picked the wrong one.
Now live with the consequences of your decision. Don’t tell me you weren’t warned.
@Mary – I made the wrong choice..?
Gary,
with all due respect, you simply do not understand trade if you think that your purchases at HEB are the same thing as what US companies BUY from AND SELL to China.
You don’t trade anything with HEB based on your lack of a product or service to exchange. you are simply a consumer.
Not all macroeconomic policies have microeconomic equivalents.
1990
I JUST SAID today that I hope WN employees hold on…. but union agreements can’t solve economic issues. If it makes sense for companies to lay off employees because revenues don’t match costs, then a union handcuff doesn’t stop the inevitable. AA underperforms as badly as it does because Parker sought peace w/ labor at the cost of running a good business. WN is the story of a company that didn’t match revenues to much higher labor costs. absent much higher revenues, WN will have to cut labor costs.
AA is far more fragile than WN is.
H-E-B is overrated. Publix is better. However, both treat their employees better than AA FA’s are treated, so to all who didn’t get their time to shine at the charm farm, go on and submit an application at H-E-B, Publix, or Buc-ee’s.
@Mary — I made the so-called ‘good’ choice, but it didn’t matter because I live in NY, and those electoral votes were (almost) always going ‘blue’. Likewise, there’s little chance Gary’s vote would make a difference in Texas as that state was (almost) always going ‘red.’ Now, if any youse here is from Philly, we should rag on them!
@Tim Dunn — Yes, I do see that now. I too wish for better outcomes for those crews, yet the outlook is simply not ‘great.’ And, if you are more concerned for American than Southwest, I’ll take your word for it. These are certainly interesting times.