American Airlines flight attendants voted overwhelmingly to authorize a strike. They’ve asked the government’s National Mediation Board for permission to do so. Their contract became amendable in 2019 and they haven’t had a raise in five years.

Outwardly, things have looked pretty bleak. Yet, as I explained two weeks ago, the airline and its flight attendants union are now closer to a contract than ever.

• Rhetoric is hot, and the union head confronted the airline’s CEO at a company-wide town hall following its first quarter earnings call. But the language there shifted.
  
• The union’s demands are no longer quite as pie in the sky.
  
• Southwest and Delta will be paying flight attendants more, and the airline is raising its economic offer for the first time since September.
  
• And the union itself is better able to accept compromise now that its leadership is secure in their positions following re-election.

Flight Attendant Union Leaders Confront CEO Robert Isom At Employee Meeting, October 2023

In the airline industry, the National Mediation Board must authorize the parties to ‘self help’ following a 30-day cooling off period prior to any strike being legal. That has seemed unlikely when:

1. There’s no ‘deadlock’ in negotiations with the airline increasing its economic offer, indeed with the parties seeming more conciliatory
   
2. The Presidential election is approaching, and a majority of the board represents the sitting President seeking re-election. A strike by American Airlines would go badly for the President, which is in part why President Clinton halted a strike by American flight attendants in 1993.

Not only does a strike seem unlikely, but there’s no reason to think progress towards a deal may be coming. Aviation watchdog JonNYC notes that the parties have been engaged in more intensive negotiations in recent weeks, and will be moving to D.C. for two more weeks of bargaining.

AA
"Seems like APFA negotiations might actually be getting close to the proverbial fork in the road. After 3 straight weeks of negotiations in Dallas and no agreement, the parties are to report to DC for 2 weeks of negotiations starting next week." pic.twitter.com/rHKB3L3YPP

— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) May 15, 2024

Reading the union’s message shared by JonNYC it’s actually rather striking in how tone has shifted away from confrontation.

The flight attendants union says that they welcome more negotiations – rather than saying they are angry that the National Mediation Board demands more negotiations after 3 straight weeks in which American failed to deliver what they demand.

And they say they have “difficult bargaining” ahead and they are “focused on working through these issues” rather than demanding release from negotiations to strike.

Rhetoric has clearly shifted, and that’s a real positive. A strike is bad for everyone – though American executives will be fine, passengers can book onto other airlines, but flight attendants in marginal economic situations would fare worst. First and second year cabin crew based in Boston are today eligible for food stamps.

I’m hopeful we’ll see wage gains quickly – their 2019 pay has been significantly eroded since then by inflation. Earlier demands were not going to get to a contract, and have only been costing them money in the meantime. Perhaps the biggest sticking point will be how much of a signing bonus crew will receive, representing ‘retro pay’ to the last raise. That is something flight attendants wouldn’t normally expect (pilots do get this). However Southwest’s new contract included retro pay and so it will be hard to sell any deal that doesn’t include an up-front inducement.