Jeffrey Hartz took a look at the most recent schedule loads for the largest U.S. airlines and finds the decisions being made at Southwest and American fascinating. There are many airports where Delta used to reign that American isn’t just bigger – but bigger than Delta and United combined. This is a strategy I laid out in March.

Hartz is Managing Director – Air Service Consulting with 18 years of experience including scheduling, route planning and air service consulting. I can count on two hands the number of guests posts I’ve shared at View From The Wing over the course of 18 years, but am happy to pass along his insights.

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Every week since the COVID-19 pandemic began, many airports and industry insiders are watching schedules loads much closer than in the past, to help get an idea of what is really going on. Back before the airline industry got turned upside down by this pandemic, airline schedulers would take months painstakingly creating schedules, with both a Future Schedules team and then a Current Schedules team working with many of the operational groups (Crew Scheduling, Stations, Maintenance, etc) to create the optimal schedule.  These schedules would be created for either seasons (Spring) or a month, but typically it would be put in concrete 60-90 days before the schedule went into effect, allowing plenty of time to both sell tickets, but also get schedules bid on by crews as well as staffing adjustments at airports.

Starting in March 2020, that all changed with schedules at the beginning being changed almost on an almost daily basis.  Whereas schedules that used to load into reservation systems almost exclusively happened late Saturday-night were being loaded on Tuesdays (or any other day of the week) in order to get the changes in for the very next week. Schedules were being put together in days (weeks if lucky) instead of months.  Lots of midnight oil was being burnt inside schedule planning groups at each airline.  Fast forward three months and we are finally into a slightly less frantic schedule situation at the airlines, where we are seeing schedules being finalized about a month ahead of time and typically only one schedule change a month instead of almost weekly.

This weekend, both United Airlines and American Airlines updated their schedules for July, whereas Delta jumped ahead of the curve and loaded their July schedules 2 weeks ago.  We expect most of the schedules for July have been finalized (except potentially Alaska and Hawaiian).

July 2020 vs July 2019 for Domestic flying only (Source: Diio Mi as of June 8, 2020). 

Travel Period	Jul 2020		Jul 2019		Diff		Percent Diff
Mkt Al	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats
Southwest	73,566	11,188,642	119,342	17,963,986	(45,776)	(6,775,344)	(38.4%)	(37.7%)
American	100,804	10,866,867	184,815	19,585,247	(84,011)	(8,718,380)	(45.5%)	(44.5%)
Delta	64,498	7,401,815	158,877	18,953,050	(94,379)	(11,551,235)	(59.4%)	(60.9%)
Alaska	37,309	4,766,525	40,098	5,070,839	(2,789)	(304,314)	(7.0%)	(6.0%)
United	51,054	4,610,375	137,533	14,254,360	(86,479)	(9,643,985)	(62.9%)	(67.7%)
Spirit	16,103	2,977,559	18,846	3,460,762	(2,743)	(483,203)	(14.6%)	(14.0%)
Allegiant	10,328	1,788,108	11,778	2,013,696	(1,450)	(225,588)	(12.3%)	(11.2%)
Frontier	8,305	1,574,324	12,548	2,399,382	(4,243)	(825,058)	(33.8%)	(34.4%)
JetBlue	9,528	1,476,610	25,545	3,483,635	(16,017)	(2,007,025)	(62.7%)	(57.6%)
Hawaiian	7,738	1,149,506	8,071	1,162,366	(333)	(12,860)	(4.1%)	(1.1%)
Sun Country	1,304	242,544	2,169	380,625	(865)	(138,081)	(39.9%)	(36.3%)
TOTAL	418,562	48,472,077	771,592	89,375,799	(353,030)	(40,903,722)	(45.8%)	(45.8%)

Overall, Southwest has cut 37.7% of its available seats Year over Year, while American is down 44.5%, Delta cut 60.9% and United the most at 67.7% of its seats.  For July 2020, American and Southwest will be dwarfing their “legacy” brethren.  American is a staggering 135% larger airline in July 2020 than United and 47% larger airline than Delta.    Southwest is the largest domestic carrier in July 2020, and shrinking the least of the “legacy” airlines, which is of no surprise.  Southwest has historically used downturns in demand and the economy to take share from other airlines. That has been part of their warrior spirit for decades.

When you look at individual markets, you see some very interesting changes that, while likely short-lived, are not something I ever expected to see.  Markets that have historically been dominated by either Delta or United now are showing American being the largest airline in July.

Raleigh/Durham has been one of the more hotly contested airports in the country going back decades following American’s shutdown of their old RDU hub.  In July 2019, Delta was the largest airline at RDU with over 450k seats, followed by American at 335k and Southwest just behind at 302k.  July 2020 will now have American offering nearly 150k seats (still down 55%), but with Delta down 79.7%, they are offering just 92k seats in July while United is at just 47k seats (down 73.4%).  American went from 27% smaller than Delta in July 2019 to 62 percent larger than Delta in July 2020.

July 2020 vs July 2019 for Raleigh/Durham Domestic & International (Source: Diio Mi as of June 8, 2020)

Travel Period	Jul 2020		Jul 2019		Diff		Percent Diff
Mkt Al	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats	Flights	Seats
AA	1,198	149,475	2,866	334,931	(1,668)	(185,456)	(58.2%)	(55.4%)
WN	920	139,496	2,016	302,496	(1,096)	(163,000)	(54.4%)	(53.9%)
DL	790	92,024	4,258	453,446	(3,468)	(361,422)	(81.4%)	(79.7%)
UA	609	46,818	1,602	175,736	(993)	(128,918)	(62.0%)	(73.4%)
B6	211	32,862	620	62,000	(409)	(29,138)	(66.0%)	(47.0%)
F9	161	30,198	766	142,232	(605)	(112,034)	(79.0%)	(78.8%)
NK	126	22,858	468	71,412	(342)	(48,554)	(73.1%)	(68.0%)
AS	124	21,996	124	19,773	0	2,223	0.0%	11.2%
G4	18	3,186	54	9,204	(36)	(6,018)	(66.7%)	(65.4%)
AC	0	0	310	15,500	(310)	(15,500)	(100.0%)	(100.0%)
TOTAL	4,157	538,913	13,084	1,586,730	(8,927)	(1,047,817)	(68.2%)	(66.0%)

This same scenario is playing out in both small airports (such as Rapid City, SD which American went from the 3^rd largest carrier behind both Delta and United to July 2020 being nearly 80% larger than either Delta or United) and large airports (such as Boston where Delta used to be 38% larger than American and now in July 2020 American will be 58% larger than Delta in Boston).

What does this mean long-term?  American and Southwest, along with Ultra-Low Cost Carriers (ULCCs) such as Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant have taken a significantly less aggressive capacity cutting measure compared to Delta or United.  Historically the airlines were all about passenger share. This led to airlines being able to gain momentum to add more service, grab corporate sales contracts and improve profitability.  On the flip side, there is nothing in the history books that help us understand how COVID-19 will play out in the airline industry.  But for at least a month, American and Southwest will be massively larger than any other airline in the country and potentially set themselves up to ride that wave into August.  Or it backfires and it costs them more money flying substantially more flights than their brethren.  Only time will tell which strategy was “right”.