U.S. – Canada travel is down but not nearly like the headlines suggested. And while industry insiders have been chattering about a decline in passenger bookings going into the summer, new data from aviation analytics company Cirium suggests things are actually looking pretty good.
Memorial Day Weekend bookings made between the end of January and mid-May are actually up 6% year-over year when looking at the Thursday-Monday of the 2024 and 2025 holidays.
| Destination City | % Change |
| Orlando | 7.51% |
| San Diego | 4.53% |
| Minneapolis | -5.51% |
| Houston | 4.12% |
| Miami | 9.92% |
| Newark | -9.97% |
| San Francisco | 11.58% |
| Seattle | 1.48% |
| San Juan | 10.18% |
| JFK | 20.07% |
| Chicago | 11.10% |
| Ft. Lauderdale | 1.70% |
| Phoenix | 4.24% |
| Washington | 0.40% |
| Austin | 11.83% |
| Dallas | 12.36% |
| LaGuardia | 7.45% |
| Boston | 10.14% |
| Denver | -4.83% |
| Los Angeles | 5.85% |
| Atlanta | 6.49% |
The data here is somewhat limited. It’s not looking at direct airline bookings. Instead, travel agency bookings are more measurable. And some airlines do not sell through third parties, so their bookings aren’t part of the analysis at all. It’s also only looking at certain cities. But the data is certainly suggestive that Memorial Day air travel is strong and even up year-over-year.
The airlines have had a great deal of uncertainty in the face of tariffs that are likely to slow economic activity, slow travel, and drive up the price of planes and parts. But as those have been pushed off, equity markets have recovered (though there are still warning signs in bond markets) and the likelihood of recession has scale back a bit.
So while we’re coming out of an earnings season where airlines withdrew their guidance for the second quarter, we’re likely to see some weakness – but people are still out there traveling, at least over peak leisure periods. Memorial Day bookings won’t tell us much about business travel.
Well… apparently, people want to leave this country… *gestures broadly*
(‘I kid, I kid…’ — Triumph, the dog)
@gary Not sure about your statement: “Everyone Said Travel Was Down—But Memorial Day Flight Bookings Are Surging”
1. “Everyone” (whoever that refers to) was talking about international travel FROM Canada/Europe/Asia to the US. Your statistics are incongruent with this statement, since we don’t know:
a) where the origin city was
b) if there was a weather/operational/other issue in 2024
2. International visitors aren’t just coming to the US because of economics or exchange rates or tariffs.
3. Referring to your recent Toronto trip, fullness of flight is not the same measure as total available butts in seat/total available seats, as you well know.
i’m feeling generous this morning so i will pay it forward to #teamgary……
a number of things have combined to create a unique opportunity for those who choose to take it…..
without belaboring the politics and insanity of the current regime, they have created an opportunity that i for one thought would never again exist…..
right now, at this moment, on friday of memorial day weekend, 3 hours after sunrise, there are a total of FOUR cars at the entrance station to Arches National Park (there is a webcam)
the moab wyndham wingate, checking in saturday 31st, checking out tuesday 3rd, is $173/night
you can have your pick of properties next weekend – a year ago was $300+ and the backup to get in to arches was 500 cars deep and you had to wait for 2 hours to park and then hike with literally 1000 other people to the same viewpoints
contour (mileageplan) serves CNY daily from DEN and PHX
GJT is 90 minutes from moab and is served by all 3 majors to their nearest hubs (DEN, DFW, PHX, SLC)
GJT is also served by MX on sundays and thursdays from BDL, LAS, SNA and PVU; bizzarre strategy to only run the station 2 days a week to 4 destinations, but leave it to neeleman to innovate
there are hundreds of other must-see places in the intermountain west, and many of them remain relatively unknown and are never over run
since the rona, “barcelona hordes” is the accurate description for the summer situation at the grand canyon south rim, arches and yosemite
but right now, there is a reprieve at arches i never thought we would see again, and especially if you have kids or grandkids, drop 5k and hightail it out there
before or after arches, make sure you make the pre-dawn drive to the canyonlands viewpoint to arrive BEFORE nautical twilight; it’s a 1-hour drive from moab, nautical begins at 5:15am next week
just remember, wherever you go, there you are
-b. banzai, 1984
Everyone also said tarrifs would destroy the economy and stock market. The opposite has happened.
Everyone said that deporting the illegals would create a labor shortage. That hasn’t happened.
Everyone said grocery prices would rise sharply and there would be shortages. The opposite has happened.
Everyone said that’s Trump popularity would drop sharply and there would be weekly mass protests. His approval is higher now than it’s ever been and those “protests” are sad and pathetic filled with unemployed boomers.
This entire myth promoted on this site and others that Al and Peg Bundy were going to stay home in the back yard this year because of “Trump’s tariffs” was laughable. Particularly since Al and Peg wouldn’t the difference between a tariff and a tootsie roll.
The wannabe Mad King and his helicoptering wannabe CEO ways are awful for long-term developments, but the awful SCOTUS majority at least found some bizarre way to rationalize keeping the Federal Reserve Banking System insulated from his helicoptering bomb-dropping and micromanagement of it.
@Walter Barry “Everyone also said tarrifs would destroy the economy and stock market. The opposite has happened.”
Backing off tariffs is why the market recovered
One final round before Last Call?
@Walter Barry — ‘Everyone’ would imply yourself included, sir. Bah! Naw, but, for realz, yo, just give it a little time. Them supply shortages are coming. Those price hikes are already starting to hit. Market not happy. Interest rates rising. Bond yields bad. He done screwed the pooch, son!
This is like that episode of King of the Hill where Hank has to work at the car wash and his Laotian neighbor doesn’t do any of the work… doesn’t end well. “That boy ain’t right.”
@ Walter Barry
Everyone said the swamp would be drained, instead it got filled with more grift than ever ($400m planes, foreign buyers of personal crypto, rampant insider trading, etc. etc.)
Everyone said that the war in Ukraine would be solved within 24 hours. It’s still raging on with no end in sight.
Everyone said that the budget would be balanced, instead the budget deficit is ballooning.
Everyone said that the Constitution would be upheld, instead there are record violations by the government.
Everyone said that eggs would not get any more expensive, instead they reached record heights.
Everybody said the dollar would strengthen, instead it weakened.
Everybody said the US stock market would do fabulously, instead it’s flat and being beat by markets outside of the US by a whopping 10 percentage points in 4 months.
Everyone said that only the best people would be in government, instead they got incompetents leaking military plans over consumer messaging apps.
Everybody said that Trump’s approval ratings couldn’t be lower than the dismal ones of his first presidency, instead Gallup’s numbers from 2 days ago show that they’re the lowest of any president in over a century with more people DISApproving than approving, with the number disapproving ever increasing.
@Walter Barry – The supply chain “bullwhip effect” refers to a phenomenon where small fluctuations in consumer demand cause increasingly larger variations in orders and inventory levels as one moves up the supply chain. In the context of the tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration, this effect is particularly pronounced. When tariffs are announced, businesses often rush to import goods before the tariffs take effect, leading to a temporary surplus in inventory. This initial overstocking masks the immediate impact of tariffs on prices. However, as these pre-tariff inventories are depleted, companies are forced to restock at higher costs due to the imposed tariffs. This leads to sudden price increases for consumers, often observed months after the tariffs are implemented. In terms of China imports, we still haven’t gotten there quite yet.
For example, the footwear industry has been significantly affected. Retailers who initially absorbed the tariff costs are now facing unsustainable margins and are compelled to raise prices. A pair of children’s shoes that previously sold for $19 could very soon see a price increase to $24, adding approximately $300,000 in costs for an order of 100,000 pairs. Similarly, essential goods like toothpaste and soap are expected to become more expensive as importers adjust to the new tariff-induced costs.
These price hikes are still very likely to dampen consumer spending, leading to a slowdown in economic growth or even a retraction. As consumers face the higher prices, they will simply reduce their purchases, which in turn affects retailers and manufacturers, creating a ripple effect throughout the economy.
Bottom line – give it a little more time. These tariff increases are wildly idiotic and something I would have expected from the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party and certainly not a Republican administration.