There have been a slew of stories suggesting that advance airline bookings between the U.S. and Canada have collapsed, either because of tariffs or because Canadians are boycotting the U.S. Maybe they don’t want to become the 51st state, or just don’t like President Trump.
The claim, originating with travel data provider OAG, is that passenger bookings have plummeted 70% (“Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year”). That never made any sense, and I’ve noted in the comments on some blogs it appears to be based on a very limited sample of data that isn’t making apples-to-apples comparisons.
That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?
Meanwhile data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that bookings are down – a bit – but nothing like the outlier numbers that OAG reports and are dominating headlines… while noting that we don’t have a full window into bookings through direct channels.
Airlines are pulling back on their transborder schedules a bit – around 3.5% for summer – and pricing has turned more attractive. Journalist Brian Sumers notes that Air Canada says the OAG report is simply untrue.
The Canadian dollar is weak. That’s holding back Canadian travelers. But about one million Canadians out of a population of 40 million have homes in the United States. They aren’t just staying away (though they mostly travel to the U.S. during the insufferable winters).
U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.
Gary, no serious researcher believes anecdotal evidence such as “there seemed to be plenty of people on my flight” means anything, but if you believe anecdotes, I flew to Australia in the middle of January with friends who were going there to buy a house, partially because they despise the Orange Julius Caesar. Every seat on the plane was full. Horrible. On the way back there were so few seats sold that every passenger had a whole bank of seats to themselves. Our friends bought a house, flew back on a different flight, different airline, and had the same experience. And I’m investigating other countries because I’m no longer proud to be an American. At all.
“You have all these imbeciles on Netters claiming the entire world won’t come to America because Trump has created tariffs and is deporting illegal gang members.”
The issue isn’t tariffs, it’s that Trump is using them to threaten allies. (That’s part of why he’s vacillated — flip-flopped wildly — so much on them. Well, that and the fact that he’s showing significant cognitive decline.) And the issue isn’t arresting actual gang members.
The issue is arresting people who are obviously not gang members, rendering them to a 3rd country where they can be tortured and deprived of their rights — without any semblance of Due Process.
A lawless country run by an administration that engages in demagoguery with wild and obviously false lies (immigrants are eating your pets! every Venezuelan with a tattoo is a gang member!) doesn’t seem a great place to visit. Especially with the stories of visitors being arrested for opinions the current administration disfavors.
We’ll reap what we sow, and we do deserve what’s coming. But propaganda is effective, and it’s easier to fool a man than convince him he’s been fooled, so I expect things to get worse before they get better.
(On topic — I have no idea what the actual travel numbers will be. I’m sure they will be at least a little lower, and I’m confident that the people of ~any country would rally around their flag when their sovereignty is attacked as we have to Canada, but I’d make no claims to be able to predict how much lower. But things can change; the stability we see is the product of a complicated system with high efficiency — and highly efficient systems are also fragile, since efficiency includes avoiding redundancy.)
You’re sleep walking into fascism. 70%? Who cares? If it down? Or up? Do think our president talking about using our (not his) department of DEFENSE to invade our friendliest neighbor to annex it is good for tourism? And Greenland and Panama? No of whom have done nothing belligerent against us. Do you think they scared of us? I’m an American citizen just married. I’m scared to bring her there period. I’m certainly scared she will be denied entry like so many tourists now or deported after…. (This is a major reason bookings ARE down from everywhere). I won’t send her this comment because this kind of criticism of Trump on social media has led to denial of entry.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/19/trump-musk-french-scientist-detained
When they came for the Palestinians, Venezuelans, the leftists, the democrats….I said nothing. When they can for me, I was writing a blog about whether travel was down by, 70% or 69
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamp post, more for support than illumination” (Andrew Lang)
I’m British, living in the UK. I’ve travelled several times to the US, but I don’t plan to go again while the president embraces the Axis of Evil. I have great sympathy for those Americans who have had this chaos imposed on them, but they have only their compatriots and especially their dumb-ass MAGA media and spineless Congress to blame. Unfortunately, I have to consider myself one of the ‘good people’ who can only sit on the sidelines while evil triumphs. I await the death of trumpism with impatience.
Canada sells more to the USA than the USA sells to Canada. Since so many Canadians are upset, maybe a trial moratorium on Canadian oil and gas should be enacted. It won’t do much but it would help the deficit in trade a bit.
I’m a Captain who fliess weekly to Europe for the worlds largest airline and my 250 seats remain full. This is still retoric from the left upset about not having their way. Temper tantroms abound, grow up.
Oh hey red harmony, Gary’s doubt from his experience may be methodologically questionable. But a full flight with 70% down booking rate isn’t very likely to see. So his dispute is still valid.
Plus, current unnecessary and unreasonable nationalist sentiment against US seems more like a method for the upcoming election. We will probably see it recede soon
We have been lied to our whole life . I do not believe in conspiracies . I only know that 2 humans can read the same story and have 2 different opinions . Nobody knows how to debate anymore . It used to be taught in school 40 years ago .
Here is a list of tariffs Canada Imposes on U.S. Goods::
– Milk: 270%
– Cheese: 245%
– Butter: 298%
– Poultry: 238%
-Eggs: 163%
– Barley: 160%
– Wheat: 94%
– Sugar: 265%
– Peanut Butter: 295%
– Rice: 150%
– Vegetables: 100%
– Fish Products: 100%
– Lumber: 20%
– Shoes: 30%
– Cocoa: 30%
– Metals: 25%
– Wool: 30%
– Tobacco: 100+%
And Canada cry’s about our 25% tariff? Phuck Canada!
For anyone who does commercial airline forecasts, there is no question that recent developments are being incorporated into scenarios, not just for Canada but for Europe this summer and beyond. If the travel industry wants to prevent further damage, it should speak about one voice about integrated economies, the folly of tariffs, and the damage they will cause to all, but most of all to the United States.
America is sick n tired of being forced tonprop up other countries economies. We haveadw the world each nbthe world is UNGRATEFUL PERIOD SO NOW NO MORE HELP! NOW ITS TIME WE HELP OURSELVES AMERICA FIRST!!!
How’s the rest of the world can see, from a few comments here. America does have a lot of imbeciles. America is on the decline thanks to these imbeciles
Why would anyone want to go to america? That guy “Waldopepper12” makes it clear the insane asylum patients are running things. You are targeted for deportation even if you’re a legitimate tourist now, if you exercise free speech and highlight the war crimes of a certain little country that we wholly prop up and are a green card student, you’re treated like a terrorist now.
The United States isn’t a safe country anymore, not even for americans, it’s only safe for the obscenely rich.
The United States of America has fallen, it’s no longer a world leader. I’ve never been so embarrassed to be american.
And you’re positive these were all Canadians on your flight? Because I know several Americans who are and will be vacationing in Canada to take our tourism dollars there, my family included. We’re heading to Europe next month to do the same thing.
But I assume you checked all the passports and didn’t just jump to conclusions to fit your political beliefs in order to nix the headline you don’t want to believe
@ Bill and Wldopepper12 — You’re idiots.
@ Tim Dunn — Queen CherryPicker returns!
It’s what one should expect when a country officially sanctions extortion as a presidential duty. The shame of America.
Waldo. You are accepting the narrative of a known liar. Yes it is true the US is running behind on a trade balance. But the reason is NOT supporting foreing lands, it is because the US has less to offer. I have cookies to offer. You buy them . You have rocks to offer. I don’t need them. Are you supporting me?. No it’s just no one wants your rocks. Get it?
I am disappointed that this article didn’t show statistics contrary to what the headlines show. Yes, there are differing opinions as to the actual decline of Canada-US air travel, and the OAG starts likely only reflects a small part of the market they could see. But, as a Canadian who owns property in the US, I can say that the whole country is very angry and deeply disappointed with what’s happening in our neighbor down south, and resolve to do what we can to show that. I have canceled our planned vacation in Las Vegas in May, and our normal annual visit to Arizona is up in the air.
Recently there have been a few well publicized cases of foreigners being detained for weeks for incorrect paperwork or simply having opinions on their phone that were unfavorable to the current administration, and the new requirement for visitors staying over 30 days to register and in case fingerprinted also scares people. This is just 2 months into the new regime, and it’s apparent that CBP is increasingly harsh on visitors and even US citizens. EU and Canada have issued travel advisories on travelling to the US. The list goes on. The worst is yet to come.
We can only hope the good sense of ordinary Americans eventually prevails and the US will stop treating every visitor with suspicious eyes, even her good nature neighbor up the frozen north.
@Tim Horton – Canadian trade policy is dumb, so let’s light our own economy on fire. Smart!
@Jimmy Huang – did you see the embedded graph?
To Waldopepper12, Donald Trump, various trade and finance ‘experts’ and others who think a trade deficit with Canada is the equivalent to a ‘subsidy’, perhaps you should be more careful about which MAGA influencers you listen to. When you buy your Bud Light from the liquor store, are you subsidising the store? No, you are entering into a transaction. And likely the store doesn’t buy anything from you. Do you complain? No. You go back for more beers.
So it is with international trade. Maybe the US sells less to Canada than they sell to the US. But there are many countries where the deficit is in America’s favour, which is why America is such a rich country.
You would think that Donald Trump, you know, that successful businessman, would understand that. But perhaps he’d rather be ignorant on this stuff, just like he is ignorant on so many other important issues.
@ Gary Leff. Sorry I did miss the graph underneath, but did read the comments. My point remains that any statistics have their limitations and may not reflect the entire market. The decline of US-Canada travel are due to multiple reasons, as you correctly point out, but the fear and ill will that prevail now will manifest themselves much more in the months and (hopefully not) years to come.
@Jimmy Huang – “any statistics have their limitations and may not reflect the entire market” I literally made this point in the piece, which is why there’s no substantiation of the (implausible) 70% claim. They’re taking a day’s worth of data from agency bookings and comparing it to another day’s from the prior period and not even adjusting for difference in day of week etc.
There was a comment from someone about huge tariffs on US goods coming into Canada, and concluded ‘Phuck Canada”. This is what happens when people use FaceBook for their sole news source. When you check actual fact sites… you see the actual numbers.
Barley seed, UST: Free
Raw sugar, UST: Free
Peanut butter, UST: Free
Footwear, UST: Free
Bovine meat, UST: Free
Rice, UST: Free
Cars, UST: Free
Vacuum cleaners, UST: Free
Aluminum, UST: Free
Tobacco, UST: Free
etc etc
The highest supposed tariffs mentioned in his post was dairy and poultry products, claiming they were over 200 percent. Canada has supply management regulations for these types of products, meaning that after an import quota has been reached for a specific exporter, they are charged a much steeper fee . US exports to Canada for dairy NEVER reaches the limit that the steep tariffs apply, not even close. US is able to sell within the US or to other countries, without needing to sell to the relatively small Canadian market. I know that these facts will be dismissed by those intent on cheerleading tariffs, but I still had to say something. As for ‘Phuck Canada’, you wonder why we boo the American anthem? We are booing ignorance and betrayal by someone we thought to be an ally and friend. Stay home if you can’t be respectful.
“That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?”
Author assumes that if bookings are down 70 percent buys tickets 30 percent airplanes are flying around? Perhaps fewer flights that are still mostly full instead?
I feel like I missed something in this article. I get that 70% may be overblown, but the headline say’s here’s the real data, and I don’t see any. The author’s flight felt full? Hardly data. A screenshot of a tweet of a chart that doesn’t include any details on what data the chart was based on? Also not data. The link to a journalist who says that someone from air canada says it’s not true but doesn’t provide figures? That article quotes people that say it’s bad, but maybe not as bad as rumours say it is and that for now, people are still traveling to the US, if only because they bought their nonrefundable tickets a long time ago. This doesn’t prove or disprove the 70% claim. If you want to refute the figure, use real data to do it.
Regarding the mean spirted, selfish, arrogant attack tRump has made upon our friend, neighbor, ally, partner and may I even say family member, is one of the worse things tRump has done in the horrible two months of a no good very bad year so far that was totally created by only himself.
The trade “imbalance” is just plain wrong. Canada has about 10 percent of the population of the US, naturally its market demand is going to be about 10% of of the US. The lying claim that the US subsidizes Canada is incorrect. The US demands and ravenously consumes so much more than it can provide for its own people that it goes out and buys what it needs for other countries. It wants more minerals than the US has. It wants more nickel and uranium than it has for its own consumption. In spite of “drill baby drill” the US buys ALOT of oil from Alberta. Ask MN, WI, IL, MI where its gasoline is coming from. It is not TX or OK! Why, because the Alberta oil is different than the US sourced oil. The US doesn’t HAVE enough of the type of oil it consumes. The US markets demand more of stuff that it actually has. The demand for Canadian stuff is so great that the US is buying more than Canada buys for the US. The “problem” is actually with the US.!
The great Orange one freely and proudly boasted that the new NA Free trade pact that he proudly demanded be renegotiated in his first administration was the best. No one EVER talks about that today. Now it is the most unfair trade arrangement ever. All of the “complaints” the Dear One now has have been fully manufactured by him to rake over any one he now sees as standing in his greedy way. And even if these fake issues were true, wouldn’t sitting down and talking together like sane people do to correct the issues be the better way to go than starting out “Negotiations” with an insult and then an attempt to attack and take over a free, sovereign nation that is actually a partner and a member of alliance that has not provoked the US in any way? Clearly the insane one is incapable of such an idea. The screw you or be screwed world view is tearing the world apart in a matter of weeks.
That half of the US chose this method of life is on them in the end though no doubt they will have the audacity to blame Canada for the failing American democracy rather than look in the mirror. Heaven forbid that a mistake be admitted! Such weakness will be the end of the Great America. No government or nation has ever stood forever. The US is so insulated from the greater world that it wrongly still believes it will stand strong and even greater by reducing its friend count to zero. The stupidest mistake that all the history books around the world will record – except the ones written in the US. Our kids will be taught to believe that the MAGA movement was brought down by a foreign power infiltrating the US minds, when in fact is FOX and One America that will be the real reason.
The imbecilic remarks from a certain loud/proud segment of the readership exposes the usual flaws in research and critical thinking.
In a group I belong to on FB, they were commenting about this article, too, and the loud/proud dopes were ranting on about these suspected cancellations being the result of recent changes in the USD/CAD exchange rate. Bravo, boys and girls, for only looking at data from the past month, instead of the past year, or five years. Even when pointed out, the response was a pathetic “I didn’t do the research you did.” You didn’t do 20 seconds of googling?
Then comes the table as presented above, with flimsy/lacking context data. Thank you, T. Jevnikar, for highlighting the galling lack of background from the loudmouth.
The best part of that table from the original lout (is what’s NOT on that table) was that the top five items exported from the US to Canada: autos/parts, machinery, nuclear reactors, electronics and mineral fuels/oils.
Our exports totaled $340B in 2024. Dairy, every dolts favored commodity, was $1.4B. And not reaching the threshold for those tariffs suggested.
As negotiated to be the greatest trade agreement ever.
But let’s trash Canada, Canadians, their outgoing Prime Minister and just generally hurl insults at them. They’ll just have to sit there and take it, because ‘Merica.
Living near Detroit, and knowing/working with Canadians, they’re angry, they’re hurt, they’re bitter, and they’re boycotting US/buying Canadian. And cancelling trips.
And that outrage and anger and bitterness will continue long into the future, long after the orange outrage has moved on to the afterlife/golf course near you.
“Joan Robinson once said that a country shouldn’t throw rocks into its own harbors just because other countries have rocky coasts.” Bad tariffs aren’t the solution to bad tariffs. Oh, to live in a world with zero tariffs.
What’s the first stage of grief again? Also, tell that to New England resort owners who are getting only about 10% normal bookings demand.
Just took a look at the February numbers for LAS airport for passenger numbers from Canada; year-over-year, they’re down roughly 25% – which is pretty significant number. I’d expect March will probably be similar, if not worse.
Canadians are pissed right off – and they’re making their feelings known with their wallets.
Canada sells more to the US than the US sells to Canada because there are 347 million people in the US and 41 million people in Canada. The only way we’ll buy less from Canada is if Trump crashes the economy, though that might affect the rest of the world.
The simple-mindedness of some, deep thinkers we’ll call them. “Phuck Canada!” Says one commenter. Citing a list of goods and items with little understand or explanation.
Tariffs on U.S. dairy products imported into Canada depend on whether the U.S. has exceeded quotas agreed to in U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.
Those tariff figures KICK IN based on AGREED UPON TRADE levels.
As for trade imbalance: 40 million people don’t need as much as 340 million people. Of course they’re not gonna be buying as much off the US as the US buys off them.
I appreciate your efforts in debunking the misleading statistic about U.S.-Canada airline bookings being down 70%. It’s refreshing to see someone dig into the data and provide a clearer picture. However, I was surprised to see another questionable claim in your article—that one million Canadians own homes in the U.S. Based on available data, this figure seems highly exaggerated. While Canadians are indeed significant buyers of U.S. real estate, the actual number is much lower.
Could you shed some light on where this statistic came from?
@red harmony let me know. I’ll get you a one way ticket out because you don’t like who the majority of the US voted for. I’ll get you a tee shirt that says democracy means you must vote for the person I tell you to. See who will welcome you and let me know. I’ll get you the ticket.
Of course 70 percent drop does t make logical sense. But fake news has to work hard to stay on top of things . They just can’t keep up. I am in favor of a new tax on any property in the US bought by canadiens. It will be an additional tariff for them. Florida will levy on top of that.
Woke liberal American garbage news media that’s spewing the report of Canadians not traveling because of Trump. Truly pathetic here with America’s “news” media.
Canadian here. Retired and travel approx 20 weeks a year. Frequently travel to the US but not anymore. And it has nothing to do with the Canadian dollar, which never stopped us before. In the 80’s I served in the British Army in Germany and you couldn’t help but wonder about the past and the true beliefs of Germans of a certain age. With the vitriol against Canada from the WH, the MAGA trolls and US citizens we interacted with in Mexico just last month, I find myself questioning the beliefs of every US citizen I interact with. That trust and friendship is gone for a very long time.
The post by Tim Horton is exactly why most people around the world think Americans are uneducated, ignorant, egotistical people. Let a smart woman explain things to you in simple sentences that you can hopefully understand.
https://x.com/KirstenHillmanA/status/1902774636137549826?t=OvS25RUTstfiR1vgNoWdSA&s=19
For the record – i believe that this was a mistake. The analyst used 3 months vs 1 month. So the number is closer to 21% decline. Let’s see what the numbers will show. However Air Canada is voting with its schedules. It has moved some Maxs to International routes.
@Brendan Reese – I did not say that one million *own* homes, just that it’s how many live in the U.S. at least part time – this includes renters – and is a rough rounded approximation from U.S. census data.
@Jeff – las vegas is down generally, however february data is skewed for many reasons (a portion of which comes from comparing to 2024 leap year) and also shifts in stays from events.
It’s not rocket science folks
Canadians are still travelling, we’re just choosing to travel to other destinations. And this any going to change in a month or two.
Ordinary Canadians are being bombarded from all directions. We have the most socialist government in our history and we can’t get rid of them (looks like we will get stuck with them for another 4 years because of how electoral boundaries are drawn – the usual political games). Now America has turned on us 🙁 The level of frustration is high. We love the US and its people. We don’t like what is happening anywhere right now. For the most part, we even seem to empathize with the notion of bringing manufacturing back to NA. The fact is that most manufacturing has been moved to China, not Canada. We have seen the same devastation in manufacturing as the US. Corporations focused on shareholders, not employees have chased cheap manufacturing in China to boost profits. This works for the wealthy, but leaves the working class way behind. At this point Canada is concerned about China and how it will maneuver into the void left by the US as the US retreats from the world economically.
Simply astounding how many Americans are still churlish about losing the election…most ludicrous comment here being “Trump showing cognitive decline…” from people who would have voted for a walking cadaver.
I’m not American nor do I live there but it’s clear the USA even now with Trump in office is such a bad place that people from many countries would risk life and limb to get in, not sure that’s the case for many other countries including Canada whose main attraction is the super generous welfare system which many newcomers feel entitled to exploit repeatedly and chronically. And as for the 70% bookings decline being a factual analysis…yeah Kamala Harris was according to the polls to win anywhere, everywhere and sweep the swing states!
I´m Danish and have been to the US over 50 times in my life, crossing the border both by land and air. I can hands down say that I don´t dare going to the US right now in this geopolitical invironment, where the US President doesen´t rule out using military force against my Kingdom.
I am sure I´m not the only European coming to this conclusion, reading horror stories in the news about overreach of CBP officers coming out of the blue after Trump took office.
Tim Horton, where did you get those numbers? Before the trade war, most U.S. goods entering Canada had no tariffs at all. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7485622
You take one, probably wrong, report and try to say that therefore the opposite is true. Pretend all you want, but airline advance bookings are down. Just in my own family, 3 out of 4 have cancelled visits to their own relatives. Cross-border road traffic was down 500,000! And many of those million winter-home owners are trying to sell.
You won’t catch me traveling to a country where the president is whipping up hatred of Canadians