Airspace is closed in Qatar, the U.A.E. and Bahrain following a ballistic missile attack by Iran on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
- At least a dozen Qatar Airways flights to Doha have diverted. So has Japan Airlines; Middle East Airlines; Gulf Air; Air India; Indigo according to data from aviation analytics company Cirium.
- Air India and Swiss flights to Dubai have diverted.
- The closure comes before many flights from Europe and the U.S. would have departed for the region, limiting the impact to travelers who have already begun their journeys. Nonetheless, we can expect a broad array of cancellations.
Many details in initial reporting on situations like what is currently unfolding will turn out to be incorrect. For instance, there were reports of attacks in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia as well. Those seem to be false. We’re slowly gaining greater clarity about the situation.
- It appears that Iran provided Qatar with advance warning of the attack in order to allow missles to be shot down.
- Iran has said this will be their only response (if the U.S. does not respond).
So far no U.S. casualties have been reported. The aim appears to be an ‘off-ramp’ – for Iran to appear to ‘do something’ but in a facile manner. They sought to save face by responding to the U.S. bombing, while (they hope) avoiding a further response by the U.S. This is a regime that is currently weak but is trying to look strong at home as they seek to retain power.
Footage posted by Iranian state-run media outlets claimed to show the launch of ballistic missiles tonight against U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, as part of Operation “Basharat al-Fath.” pic.twitter.com/RPC5JMxcnV
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 23, 2025
Whether the closure of airspace in Qatar, the UAE and also now Bahrain is temporary or longer-lasting seems to depend on the U.S. response – do we allow Iran to attack a U.S. base without significant consequences, even if that attack failed and even if it was designed to fail? There are factions in the administration angling to take the off-ramp.
The Trump Administration was anticipating Tehran would retaliate after strikes by the U.S. Air Force on Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, and the President does not want more military engagement in the Middle East, a senior White House official told CNN, though the official… pic.twitter.com/gYIbnRMS4d
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 23, 2025
The Gulf region, and air carriers like Emirates, Qatar Airways, and to a lesser extent Etihad and even Gulf Air are major carriers of long haul connecting traffic across the global because of their unique geography and route networks.
From ‘visiting friends and relatives’ passengers in the U.S. heading to India and Pakistan, to connecting Europe and Australia, as well as providing a significant amount of global lift out of Africa, closing of airspace around major Mideast hubs will have a significant disruptive effect on passengers movements as well as cargo all over the globe.
The larger issue of what happens next is, of course, even bigger. Iran’s nuclear program has been set back significantly, but was uranium moved and where is it? Will Iran’s leadership survive this crisis or will they abdicate? Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev now admits plainly that Iran was in the process of building nuclear weapons.
2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue.
3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.— Dmitry Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE) June 22, 2025
The country has a significant military, but its ability to project power beyond the region is in question. Do they have terror sleeper cells in the United States as they may claim, or in the U.K.? Israel controls their airspace. Will the people of Iran rise up, given the regime’s weakness?
We’re at a terribly uncertain time and it is difficult to know the second- and third-order consequences of any action in the region right now. However there’s no question that a world where Iran has the bomb is less safe than one where they do not; that Iran’s strength lied mostly in its proxies that have been dismantled in Lebanon, Syria, and Israel; and that we can all wish for greater freedom for the people in Iran – not least of which women and sexual minorities.
Seems like just a couple days ago that some on here we calling AA a bunch of pussies for suspending flights to DOH. Ah, the trappings of toxic masculinity.
Rarely are there winners in war. My hope is for a swift, just, equitable end to the hostilities. Everyone deserves to live in a world where peace, acceptance and respect are where we begin our journey.
The Middle East mess is taking a bigger toll. There will be more and more pressure to get it finished
Oil is crashing. Markets are telling us the Middle East has changed. Less risk. Iran isolated. The rest of the Arab world telling Iran to back off. The game has changed. Unbelievable to think of this happening 20 years ago. Peace is within reach.
as we have seen in the past Iran called and told everyone about this before it happened. no damage to the US base. this will be the end of it unless Iran damages a US base
Well said article, Gary. You’ve also indicated some of the same analysis that I’ve been reading elsewhere: Dmitry Medvedev finally came out and simply confirmed the truth, Iran was clearly in the process of building nuclear weapons.
The key point to the story is that Iran let Qatar know this “attack” was coming, thus allowing Qatar or the US ample time to prepare.
The war, or whatever it was, is likely winding down now.
This is capitulation by Iran and a feeble attempt to try to save face with the Iranian people. In fact, they have been broadcasting on Iranian TV that they essentially destroyed the US base, despite there being minimal damage and zero casualties. For all intents and purposes, this is the end of the conflict. Oil is down and global stocks up on the news.
As usual, all the “Trump is starting WW3” dumbass libs are getting exposed for once again not having the faintest idea what they are talking about.
@Parker — Qatar and UAE closed their airspace; no injuries. QR, EK, EY will be delayed, but they’ll be back soon enough. If US/EU carriers wanna call it quits for a while, that’s on them. I flew EK yesterday, and am glad it went well, but I’d fly them again (and QR) in a heartbeat. Today proved that Iran is in the wrong, and that the rest of the region and the world should join in stopping that regime from harming anyone else ever again.
@Parker — Also, weren’t you literally telling me in a different post on here about two weeks ago that it would be totally fine to visit Israel. Welp, how’d that work out? Would have been stuck for a while. So, I wouldn’t say anything here is toxic masculinity. That’s a separate issue. Jingoism? Maybe.
@Sully of Doha — Haven’t heard from you in a while, but if you are based there, hope you are safe and well.
Better than I expected provided you-know-who doesn’t come up with a crazy idea to retaliate, or a local Iranian commander doesn’t do something stupid in the Gulf. But in a region where memories stretch over thousands of years of history it is hard to see something like this being just brushed off. Or for that matter that the Tehran government won’t try to get its bomb some other way. Meanwhile the Israel/Palestine issue goes on, and on, and on.
@drrichard — Yeah, this does seem like it was about ‘saving face,’ otherwise, why give a ‘heads up.’ The regime in Iran is trying to keep control internally, so it has to project ‘strength,’ or it’ll fail. It’s an information vacuum over there.
As to #47, yeah, if you wanna know what he’ll do, I’d say, think like a fascist. Do those guys typically de-escalate? If anything, this gives Saudi, Qatar, UAE the green light to get on-board with regime change in Iran. A coalition of regional partners might make that possible. After all, those guys enjoy their proxy wars in Africa as it is. Maybe time for them to ‘fix’ their own neighborhood first. The current regime in Iran simply ain’t their friend either.
Iran has apparently claimed their response was calibrated to be tit-for-tat, and not an escalation: 6 missiles fired at base(s) in Qatar. As you note, Iran provided advance warning, to prevent any casualties. So that could/should be the end of it. But knowing the Trump administration, it won’t be.
And why would the leaders abdicate? They acted prudently by moving materials in response to Israel’s attacks and Trump’s threats, and responded in measured fashion to his attacks. They know they’d lose in an all-out war, sort of (cf Afghanistan, Iraq). As with others who’ve stood up to Trump (Carney, Newsome), this probably just strengthens their standing with their people.
@Richard “why would the leaders abdicate?” they’ve definitely made contingency plans to do just that. Israel controls their airspace and attacks at will, if their response to the u.s. bombing isn’t seen as an off-ramp but an escalation then things could get really bad really fast. Maybe the voices in the administration saying ‘we’re done’ win out, maybe Trump gets furious at targeting the military. We’ll see!
It’s hard to see how a popular revolt can overthrow the regime unless it comes from the guard corps itself. They have the weapons and the will to use them against unarmed civilians.
@1990 I thought I mentioned that Tel Aviv had been in my list of places to see but not sure when that’ll happen now…if ever. Thanks f I suggested I am comfortable traveling to this region right now I did not represent myself correctly. No way in hell I’m going over there.
I’m happy to hear your flight on EK was fine. Imagine, if you will, if it hadn’t gone fine and you were the executive who made the call to keep the planes in the air and having to answer for one being shot down.
I don’t blame AA and others for suspending operations in the region, particularly if doing so presents little to no risk to the business. AA’s decision uses a different calculus than QR’s does. Businesses and passengers get to smart their own level of risk tolerance.
If Iran got this far toward a nuclear weapon and we hadn’t covertly shut it down that was a security failure on our part. It’s unfortunate we have to risk all-out war to accomplish our goals. I thought our leaders told us our military intelligence was better than this.
@Kirk – if the U.S. responds to the missile attack on its airbase, things could get ugly really fast and the mullahs leave for Russia (or the military intervenes)
@Parker — It’s still on my places to visit, though, we’ll just have to wait a little longer. Timing is key. Luck is also a factor. I believe there are competent people dedicated to all of this, but even they can miss something sometimes.
I have not forgotten Azerbaijan 8243 (by Russia earlier this year), Ukraine International 752 (by Iran in 2020), and, of course, MH17 (also by Russia). Before that, Iran Air 655 (by the US in 1988), and Korean 007 (1983 by the Soviets). There are others, but those are big ones. Some accidental, some maybe less-so. It’s a tragedy each time. Rarely is there justice.
Within the past hour, the NYTimes reports “air traffic over the Gulf states is gradually resuming after Iran’s retaliatory attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, according to analysis by Flightradar24.” Also, apparently, #47 is seeking to de-escalate, not respond. We’ll see…