Airlines are a strong leading indicator of the economy, and international air travel a barometer for the global economy. There are troubling signs in new data.
Data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows a decline in European travel bookings to the U.S. this fall. Specifically, summer (June – August) bookings for fall (September – November) travel from Europe to the U.S. are down meaningfully year-over-year:
| Location | 2024 | 2025 | Change | |||
| France (CDG) | 137,498 | 133,521 | -2.89% | |||
| Italy (FCO, MXP) | 209,766 | 193,904 | -7.56% | |||
| Germany (FRA, BER, MUC) | 163,727 | 143,199 | -12.54% | |||
| UK (LHR, LTN, STN, LGW) | 304,021 | 289,040 | -4.93% | |||
| Spain (MAD, BCN) | 153,541 | 139,699 | -9.02% |
The data shows third party bookings – travel agency itineraries, including online travel agencies – and doesn’t include reservations made directly with airlines. We know that these bookings are down materially. It’s not likely that they’re offset by increased resevations direct with airlines.
And we know that Delta Air Lines President Glen Hauenstein shared last week at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference that for this summer, Europe was that airline’s worst-performing region of the world.
In the second quarter Delta had reported that U.S. outbound travel had fallen, but the declining dollar was helping with Europe-originating demand. That no longer appears to hold, based on this Cirium data.
All that said, there’s a lot going on here. Some will want to latch onto trade tensions (Trump administration) or a slowing economy. And seem to be part of it, but likely not all of the story.
- The dollar actually did appreciate during the summer, likely mitigating European demand somewhat. Meanwhile, U.S. hotels remain expensive.
- Just because advance bookings are soft doesn’t mean that European arrivals in the U.S. will end up down. Airlines cut prices and run promotions and may still fill up cabins at prior year levels, albeit with lower yields. Global uncertainty may mean people are booking closer-in anyway.
- And there’s a clear effect of border, visa, and tariff moves on inbound traffic. ESTA prices double at the end of the month. News stories about harsh border treatment discourages some visitors, who appear to be booking elsewhere (e.g. Japan).
- I’d expect to see some decline in the data as a result of Air France KLM, Lufthansa and British Airways moving further to NDC/direct sales. Channel shift is going to have some effect and we don’t know how much yet.
United’s Scott Kirby says the U.S. economy is strong and travel demand came on ‘like a light switch’ two and a half months ago. But something is up in travel here from Europe.
It’s not surprising to see the biggest change coming out of Germany given their economic situation and manufacturing slump. Italy’s economy is soft as well. U.K. conditions have been better than Germany’s, so a smaller drop makes sense. Meanwhile, Air France KLM is going to have a bit of a different year-over-year baseline given last year’s Olympics.
Ultimately I do expect to see some catchup. And the data isn’t clean since it doesn’t include direct bookings. But it’s suggestive of overall economic weakening hastened by trade and border tensions, although that is not the only cause.
Hmmmmmm……I wonder why?
Drop ‘em low enough and I’ll take weekend getaways on those ancient 763s, shoutout @Tim Dunn!
(Perhaps, this is more indicative of a larger economic slowdown… sorry, what’s that, reporting is now semi-annual, and the people over at the statistics bureau say everything’s ‘great’… ok… so, tariffs, getting rid of all the immigrants, verbally threatening our allies, nationalizing companies like Intel, etc. all just ‘fine’ because he’s ‘our guy’ right?)
This decline in travel corresponds with World War II.
Germany (FRA, BER, MUC) -12.54%
Germany was the enemy of the United States. Killed a lot of Americans
Italy (FCO, MXP) -7.56%
Italy fought America and were allies of Germany in WW2
Spain (MAD, BCN) -9.02%
Spain was officially neutral but sided with Nazis
UK (LHR, LTN, STN, LGW) -4.93%
UK was on the same side
France (CDG) -2.89%
America saved France’s a$$ and freed them from German occupation
The decline in European originating traffic is partially offset by pent up US demand.
DL also said that premium traffic and corporate travel including for international is strong. While bookings can be done, finances appear unchanged. We won’t know until we get full detail first from DL and then other carriers that also have a presence in multiple parts of the world (including EU airlines that typically report after US airlines) as well as those that also carry leisure and business travel.
I suspect that these are relatively minor changes in the scope of entire airline systems.
As someone who’s always been deeply skeptical of tourism-as-tourism, I’m not entirely sure this is a bad thing. Business travel continues to be replaced by advanced teleconferencing, and perhaps it’s time for leisure travel (and leisure money) to stay closer to home.
Before people start dreaming of a $300 round trip to London or Paris in which they will get an entire row to themselves remember this isn’t 1972. Airlines will soon cut routes, park planes and furlough crew.
@derek — WWII? ‘Are we.. the baddies?’
“The dollar actually did appreciate during the summer.”
No, the dollar has hovered around $1.17 to 1 euro for the last 3 months, while back in January they were almost at 1-to-1 parity. It has DEpreciated against the euro (as well as British pounds, Swiss Francs and a lot of other currencies).
@Diego Dave — *weewoo weewoo* “This is the Thot Police…” Sorry, economic data doesn’t matter in the USA anymore. Ignore reality, and praise Dear Leader!
I think Gary’s list of reasons that could explain a slowdown are all valid and all could be contributing.
I can only speak about the press in German speaking areas. The border hassles for EU citizens get a lot more play than here. The trade war issues and not wanting to support the US in any way shape of form are real too in people’s perceptions.
This is mere anecdotal evidence. Most of my friends and family there have zero, and I mean zero, desire to visit the US right now.
Unfortunately, perception is closer to reality here.
@ 1990 — I’ll meet you at the D1 lounge JFK…even those trash cans are nice when the price is right! 🙂
@ 1990 — Sadly, these low fares will probably exclude D1 access…meet you in one of the yucky PP lounges. No AX Plat card here. I ditched that this spring.
Wrecking 80 years of consistent branding for the US as the world’s exceptional great society and a stable force for good probably has as much to do with lessening demand as economics.
I’m hard-pressed to see how we turn around our image as world class bully, run by a whackjob who sounds like a condescending know-it-all drunk at the bar discussing world affairs.
@Gene — Now we’re talking! I’d even hop over to BOS to try their D1 lounge, again, ‘if the price is right!’ WFBF!
@SST — Then there’s that whole ‘land-war in Europe’ thing… as our VP said, “Did you even say ‘thank you’?” (He did.) That WH meeting was disgraceful. And the ‘rolling out the red carpet’ for a dictator in Alaska. Major facepalms.
Not at all surprising. America is a joke.
All I see in the last 6-7 weeks is prices to Europe are climbing. Now, it’s not data, it’s just a sample, but I’ve been checking flights to Italy since end of July, and the prices are almost double to what they were back then. Just saying…
This seems very exaggerated and not on the mark. The money is in the premium yields which UA and DL are very well aware of and that’s why they do the best. It’s common sense
@Ray
Yuropeans are fragile little cucks?
It could be a lot of reasons, including both slow EU/UK economies, tighter border controls and dislike for the current US government. However, if it was only the latter, would we see a commensurate increase in EU/UK citizens traveling to other countries than the US? Is there any data showing that?
Incidentally, vacationing in the US, such as the national parks, has gotten very expensive. To me, vacationing in a lot of the EU/UK seems cheap in comparison to the US.
@Walter Barry — Knew you’d show up. So, one more time, who you flyin’ these days? Aeroflot? Shenzhen? Hainan?
The Euro is 6.1% stronger vs. the U.S. Dollar than it was a year ago, so the USA is 5% cheaper for Europeans to visit (for those mathematically challenged, a Euro bought you $1.1041 on 12 september 2024 and it buys you $1.1714 a year later – source: latest data from Federal Reserve Board Release H.10).
Yet they chose to avoid traveling to a place that’s much cheaper than before.
If only Americans knew that voting (or deciding not to) had consequences?
@ Mary — Well, clearly a majority of Americans are morons, just like their elected Dear Orange Blob.