No-Notice Devaluation: United Increases Close-In Saver Awards by 33% — Now 20,000 Miles

United Airlines appears to have suddenly raised the cost of award tickets when traveling within 2 weeks of booking. Many awards that just days ago cost 15,000 miles now have a new standard cost of 20,000 miles.

For instance, the lowest price of an award from Denver to Newark in economy within two weeks of travel has gone up from 15,000 miles to 20,000 miles. These are saver (lowest-price) awards. Those are the same seats that are made available to partner frequent flyer programs.

Once you get out past two weeks pricing looks more ‘normal’. It’s close-in travel that is bearing the brunt of changes here. And note that there’s no inherent reason why bookings within two weeks of travel ought to cost more miles, especially when saver awards are available which suggests that the airline does not expect to sell out the flights (indeed, the seat prices aren’t necessarily higher when paying with cash).

Air Canada Aeroplan and Avianca LifeMiles charge 15,000 miles one-way for these same United flights. Air India charges just 7,500 miles for the same United flights (and they’re a Rove and Mesa transfer partner).

Here’s another example: Denver – Los Angeles within 2 weeks of travel has gone up to 20,000 miles. Right after that it drops down to 12,500 miles and as low as 9,200 miles.

Short haul flights like Washington National – Newark can be lower. For instance they can be 15,000; 20,000; 18,400 or as little as 11,600 miles – though once you hit two weeks out from travel pricing is often 6,800 miles.

What United keeps doing is making clear that:

• MileagePlus is not a good store of value
  
• The miles you collect become worth less, the longer you hold them
  
• Thus it’s not a trustworthy place to bank your points.

The number of devaluations we’ve been through with United’s MileagePlus the past few years has been truly astonishing. It’s easy to just be numb to it.

To some extent all programs do this. The points prices aren’t going up when or because airfares are going up. They’re not tied to ticket prices here. It’s just too tempting to reduce the liability on their books, and they think customers aren’t smart enough to figure out that their credit card products are returning less value to the customer as a result (and therefore consumers should move spending away from them).

I largely stopped having any real commitment to United’s MileagePlus in Spring 2019 when they made it clear the direction the program was headed. And I have not regretted that decision, with consistent devaluations throughout the pandemic and since.

United CEO Scott Kirby told investors that the airline will double MileagePlus profits by the end of the decade. He promised a doubling of profits in 2021 but failed to achieve it. The strategy then appeared to be cutting redemption costs by raising miles prices. The strategy now appears to be raising miles prices. What is it that they say is the definition of insanity?