United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby talked during his airline’s earnings call about the airline expecting to plateau at 50% of last year’s revenue ‘until there’s a vaccine’ and then expecting recovery to come very quickly to the airline business. American Airlines, too, talked about a vaccine for Covid-19 in its earnings call.
I’ve already written about a vaccine not being a silver bullet, that it’s likely not to be 100% effective and not everyone will take it. That means the virus will continue to circulate, people will still get infected. A vaccine may help – but perhaps less than you think – and isn’t the ‘trigger’ for travel everyone hopes.