Report: United–JetBlue Deal Is 3-Step Plan—Starts With 20 JFK Flights, Takeover Could Follow

According to a report shared by Ishrion Aviation, as a result of United’s planned partnership with JetBlue, United could takeover 20 slot pairs at New York JFK and if “conditions are favorable” United could eventually acquire the smaller carrier. United could gain access to two of JetBlue’s gates at JFK, operating up to 20 total daily departures.

The report suggests a partnership that rolls out in three phases:

  1. A simple alliance, already reported by Reuters, which would include mileage earning and redemption. It’s unclear the extent to which there would be elite status reciprocity, lounge access, or codesharing.

  2. This would be followed by a strategic partnership, perhaps along the lines of what American Airlines and Alaska currently have. This is an elevated partnership that does include codesharing and more than just the basics of status recognition. There’s even upgrade reciprocity for the status members of each airline. Essentially, this second phase adds pieces to a partnership that aren’t included in what’s first announced.

  3. Finally, provided macro conditions are supportive and the Trump administration indicates supports, United could acquire JetBlue with expedited regulatory review. This suggests that any second stage would need to come quickly, as they’d aim to close any possible merger prior to January 20, 2029.

United Airlines has long wanted back into New York JFK, since the airline gave up its position there and leased its slots to Delta in 2015 under then-CEO Jeff Smisek. Current CEO Scott Kirby identified JetBlue as the only play but recognizes that an acquisition is a heavy lift. He went through that process taking on US Airways and American Airlines under Doug Parker. United also wants a more significant Florida presence which JetBlue has.

I’ve written that the pending partnership between JetBlue and United is going to be bigger than it first appears, though I am uncertain as to those specifics. We know that United partners (likely at least Lufthansa, though probably more) have been briefed on plans for months, which suggests integration or an opportunity beyond just JetBlue frequent flyers earning miles when they fly United.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. So is this why United’s CEO was bending the knee talking about the current admin is good for US, even tho travel demand is falling left right and center

  2. Gene,
    even though DL controls more federal slots than any other airline, DL does not control more than 50% of any airport’s slots.

    AA still controls more than 50% of DCA’s slots and UA controls more than 50% of EWR’s flights – and they also controlled more than 50% than EWR’s slots when EWR was slot-controlled.

    And DL waited TWO YEARS for the feds to give the green light to the DL-US slot deal which ultimately gave DL the largest slot portfolio among US airlines but didn’t give DL a majority position at any slot-controlled airport.

    and DL grew its position in NYC by adding flights at JFK when the FAA removed slot controls post 9/11, something any airline could have done.

    AA wanted for NYC slots to be eliminated and yet there are people that think that AA should get a bunch of remedy slots – even though AA has not used its slots anywhere close to full
    So, as usual, you are wrong.

  3. “aaway,
    I was right that AA would descend into chapter 11 as much as some people screamed bloody murder that I was wrong.”

    Tim Dunn,
    And I was right that, upon his ascension to CEO, that Kirby/UA
    would be the ones to watch. I further indicated that he would take his knowledge of the internal workings of US dba AA, and use for the benefit of UA.

    A few people….most notably….*ahem*….. not only screamed bloody murder, but also chose to castigate Kirby.

    @1990 – “Looks like he’s (Isom) is going home “.

    Yeah, I’ve posited elsewhere I don’t believe the US dba AA senior management has the gumption to pursue the B6 matter further from a strategic perspective.

    Even if it did, their initial masterstroke was suing B6. /Sarc off/.

  4. aaway,
    Kirby’s hands are all over some of AA and US’s worst decisions.

    I have no problem acknowledging what he and others at UA have done, but don’t act like you were locked up for a decade plus and prevented from doing all of the good you now claim to be doing at UA.

    and UA execs have REPEATEDLY for seven years talked about following DL’s strategies and wanting to be categorized with DL and not the rest of the industry.

    the biggest difference between DL and UA right now is that UA doesn’t want to pay its employees top level wages while DL IS.

    and Kirby and co. have an INCESSANT need to talk about how good they are. DL subscribes to the theory that, if you are really good, most people know. DL consistently wins awards for being the best run airline and business among US airlines. People know.

    and UA simply will not be generating margins on par w/ DL when UA gets around to paying its labor groups industry comparable, let alone industry leading, salaries.

    FAs and mechanics are vocal and influential groups.

    and specific to this discussion, I still have someone yet to provide real proof as to how the current administration is going to undo precedent that was set with two previous mergers that have not allowed US carriers in a higher price/cost category (legacy vs LCC vs ULCC) to acquire or control carriers in a lower price/cost category.

    as much as some people want to believe otherwise, antitrust policy esp. for airlines is fairly consistent from one party to another.

    There is NO ONE except in UA’s C Suite and their fan club that thinks that the US will be better off by allowing the big 4 to become more concentrated and larger esp. in limited access markets like NYC.

    If UA can pull off a simple codeshare and alliance membership for B6 that AA couldn’t do, then hats off to Kirby

    but a whole lot of people are wetting their pants w/ excitement about a full fledged merger and even a slot transaction that I simply don’t see happening. I could be wrong but B6 will be signing its own death warrant if it leases slots to UA.

  5. @ Tim Dunn — DL USED to win awards for being the best run airline and business among US airlines. People KNEW. That is over.

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