United Airlines has some of the best cities for premium passenger traffic as hubs: New York (Newark); Chicago; San Francisco; sort of Los Angeles; Houston; Washington Dulles; Denver. They’re strong in the biggest cities with the most business travel, however:
- Managed business travel, especially international and from San Francisco and New York, has lagged other categories post-Covid
- They’re largely in contested markets, even where they have a dominant position. They are stronger in Chicago than American, but American has a hub there as well. They face off with Delta for New York business. No one owns Los Angeles.
What United doesn’t have is the strong presence in the Southeast that Delta has (Atlanta) and American has (Charlotte and Miami). And aviation watchdog JonNYC passes along chatter from United’s internal leadership conference that the airline is planning a Florida hub.
Or “sunny”
(Usually somewhat interchangeable but does maybe point more towards Florida or the like)— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) February 6, 2024
With I’d say MCO/TPA mentioned as much or more. But I don’t know what it all means right now— was mentioned, trying to obtain full context.
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) February 6, 2024
United Airlines has over 700 new aircraft on order, even excluding 45 Airbus A350s that until recent Boeing production issues were expected never to materialize. If demand develops to support that sort of growth (though many aircraft on order will allow the airline to replace existing planes) they are going to need more places to send them. And one gap is certainly the Southeastern United States.
Please please Fort Lauderdale.
Come on, United! Come to TPA! Connect the people of Tampa to the world!
It’s probably a very smart move. AA has instituted a full scale retreat in much of Florida. When Jet Blue winds up merging with AA, their Florida market share will certainly be up for grabs.
TPA would make the most sense, as it is the best medium-sized airport in Florida. MCO is an absolute nightmare. MIA is even worse. No other airport could handle the traffic.
because Jon needs to be relevant, he is regurgitating any potential rumors – and creating any rumors he can – but UA will face an existential crisis if it tries to build a hub in Florida.
UA is actually the SIXTH largest US airline in Florida behind AA, DL and WN AND B6 and NK.
They bought a presence in Florida via the Pan Am Latin presence and walked away due to intense competition from American.
They are not in the top 3 in any city in Florida that could host a hub.
UA would be absolutely foolish to try to start a hub in Florida and would fast a fast and strong competitive response.
And let’s not forget that Kirby is running around Europe to try to get Airbus to deliver more A321NEOs and will have more than triple the capex of any other US airline in order to get more A321s by firming up the A350 order so their finances will be more stressed than AA was for a decade.
Go for it, United. And they think they will take out the ULCCs. Wait til the target is on their back
Interesting. The only “hubs” I really see in Florida are American at Miami (where it does connections to Europe and LatAm) and Fort Lauderdale (where JetBlue does a lot of Caribbean business). What kind of hub could United build in Tampa? Not many partners, not many connections, etc.
Southwest airlines is reducing its operations in Fort Lauderdale from 101 departures per day to 40 and giving up the A gates in T1. United already operates from. The C gates there and uses A for overflow. With Spirit Airlines financial woes. I can see a play here.
Wouldn’t surprise me if it turned out to be MCO or Tampa.
By the way, there seems to be a technical issue with posting comments on the TK blog article from today.
FLL needs United. Miami is a mess with no working train, crazy lines when the cruise ships come in (even Clear – lines rival Atlanta), and half the people movers don’t work and the rental car experience is a nightmare. If they move a hub to FLL, I will give all my business to them. All their former EWR passengers are moving to Florida the minute they become empty nesters.
Why not atl ? Florida may attack united like Disney for it’s Taylor Swift, Bud Light, NFL values
I do not think FLL would be the smart move for them as they already compete with American in Chicago, LA, and the Washington metro area. TPA would be the smartest to me as there is no major airline hubs there. You gain access to the 3rd and 5th largest cities in the state and you could hypnotically spread out some of your other flights and services to the airports in St. Pete and Sarasota. Even if they went to MCO they are competing and it is an interior vacation/family city in a state known for beaches. Plus tapping into more businesses in the Tampa Bay area is what they are likely looking for.
This wouldn’t happen all at once if at all. Houston and Atlanta are strong southern hubs, with the addition of a third, the market may be over saturated. One thing that Florida does have is a large and growing larger tourist and transplant (from somewhere else) population that is fueling great growth. Unfortunately…
Hope it comes to fruition, wherever it may be.
That said, FL is a tough place to have a hub due to the intense competition coupled with the fact that so much of the traffic is origin/destination. AA uses MIA primarily to connect pax between teh US, caribbean and latin america, and europe. I live in Florida with good connections offered to MIA, and it’s a rare day I see a connecting itinerary offered by AA within the lower 48 using MIA as a connection point.
All that to say, UA’s strategy would seem to have to follow a similar model, which would entail a major operation in trying to take some of AA’s lunch. That is, unless UA wants to compete on domestic point to point flights and use a FL hub to as a connection point for pax on domestic itineraries…but I can’t fathom why they’d voluntarily jump into those trenches.
Gotta go with Tim on this one. Jon seems to be reaching here craving some weird relevance, as usual. A leadership conference would be the last place you’d announce or do anything more than note “United is weak in the SE and Florida”. Yep. No joke.
Thousands of people are at those conferences. No company secret would be assumed safe there or even a rumor.
But speculation is fun… I can’t imagine where United would go in Florida that isn’t full of LCC and ULCC trash fares. Maybe staging to swoop in at FLL since WN is largely pulling out and B6 and NK are pretty weak and not in much of a position to play defense but even then… FLL’s terminals aren’t set up for any kind of real hub unless FLL was willing to pull a Miami and turn a few terminals into a long terminal like what aa has in Miami. I haven’t the foggiest how the FLL airport board thinks, but I do wonder if they’d crave a more stable long haul legacy hub operation to complement their leisure traffic.
Maybe United would be open to building a new terminal in Tampa but… the current terminal set up just isn’t conducive to a hub operation and, once again, United would just be fighting Southwest in a leisure-driven market.
I’ll give United this though. Gol and Avianca have a tie up and it would seem obvious that either United or AA is going to end up with both Latin carriers in the future. Seems like United has the bigger say in AV than aa does in Gol now given the equity loss there… If United gets them both, a Florida hub would be good and if you can’t have Miami for them (AV has a little operation there as is) the. Maybe you’d do FLL or MCO but I just don’t see the room at either airport and Florida airports just aren’t SE connecting airports like atl or clt, they’re too far south so they’re better for Caribbean and Latin connections.
@Tim Dunn has valid points here. Whether we want to hear it or not, his reasoning makes sense.
TPA or JAX would seem like decent candidates although I’m not sure that either is ready for prime time. I suppose a lot would depend on available gates and terminal space as well as whether United would want a primarily domestic hub. Another consideration is how much more traffic whatever city they choose can the airport handle without substantial infrastructure improvements.
Eh, I don’t get it. FL is a destination, not an attractive connection point. There isn’t money in continuing on to Latin America. MCO and MIA are horrible. TPA has weather issues – it’s the lightning capital of the world. Maybe FLL? But it would be “hub” in a nontraditional sense, in that it would be a terminus with a lot of planes at it.
thank you, T.
MAX hits on the real issue which is Latin America
AA has ruled MIA to Latin America to the exclusion of DL and UA for decades.
DL threw the status quo out the window with its equity investment and joint venture with Latam. DL is the 2nd largest domestic carrier at MIA and LA is the 2nd largest international carrier.
MIA is growing rapidly as is Florida. DL and LA working together have the potential to have a decent presence in Latin America from Florida. DL and LA have already become the largest carrier from NYC to Latin America and LAX.
UA faces the prospect of falling to #3 in Latin America behind DL and anyone that is going to be viable has to have a presence in Florida.
MIA is where it is to Latin America. It is worthless to talk about building a hub in Florida and not go after the Latin America market.
Every Florida market except for MIA has a low cost carrier as the largest carrier and DL as the largest legacy carrier.
UA will be fighting with its hands tied behind its back to try to build its back.
Kirby is driven by ego and was behind AA sustaining large parts of its Pacific network for “strategic reasons” even though they lost money and lots of it.
UA moved first 40 years ago w/ the Pacific and has reaped the benefits. DL is finding its footing against post NW merger and Tokyo hub and will grow but DL is not trying to and will not overtake UA across the Pacific even though they will narrow UA’s lead.
AA went for a UK partner as their primary transatlantic partner and is and will be #3 to Europe.
The same thing applies to Latin America. Strategic decisions matter and have long-term consequences. UA had a chance in Latin America with its Pan Am acquisition and walked away.
UA made $2 billion less than DL in 2023 and, while AA made less than $1 billion, AA’s eggs are in its basket of southern hubs and presence and they, along w/ DL and WN will fight hard to prevent UA setting up shop in their most valuable regions.
Rumors and internet discussions of what is strategically needed are far less significant than putting together a viable plan and succeeding at doing it.
Everyone is looking past PNS, ECP, TLH and JAX which could actually be connecting points for places outside Florida or LATAM.
Please TPA. And maybe we could finally get a Unite Club,? DL and AA has had them for years!
I remember when United used to fly into Ft Lauderdale
I can envision FLL as a hub for United based on:
CURRENT EVENTS
-Southwest already moved Caribbean flying away from FLL and up to MCO
-JetBlue is pulling back on FLL markets and opening up opportunity for UA
-growth of FLL metro area and increased population and relocation post-COVID (think: no state income tax)
-congestion at MIA and craziness of metro Miami are driving populations to move northward
-UA used to have a Latin hub in MIA in the 90s but could easily grow and supplement IAH / add new service in Central / Latin / Carib markets
FUTURE PREDICTIONS
-Spirit shuts down and liquidates
-United buys Spirit’s aircraft (think: fleet commonality and available pool of crew to fly the Airbuses) -AND- potentially their new offices & training facility in Dania Beach (enabling more Airbus training for UA)
INFRASTRUCTURE
-Spirit has all of Terminal 4 which includes a customs facility – this could accommodate a UA international hub
-Terminal 5 being built to enable expanded ops (and connected to T4)
-Connectivity at FLL with several other *A carriers and partners (AV, CM, 3M, AC, AD)
Just my $0.02 but I think FLL has a pretty good set of factors making it an attractive choice.
I worked for United for 30 years and heard that rumor for the last 15, especially from the commuters from Florida.
You could have had Eastern back in 1989 for pennies on the dollar
Not even looking at market conditions, I don’t think any of the Florida airports have the ability to give United an entire concourse. MCO is still a mess, even with the new C terminal partially open. TPA has a bit of potential, but the airside would have to be built – B or D comes to mind (both have been leveled). TPA presents the logistics of in order to be a HUB, you have to connect. TPA’s international clearance on the F gates is not meant for connecting traffic, let alone a bank. It was a mess flying in on Swiss & Copa (don’t get me wrong, was 20000x better than Miami). American is the signatory (preferential) user on almost all the gates on F. MCO is trying to push all intl traffic to the C gates, so maybe there’s a chance that some of the old Delta wings on that wing might be open, but then again, each finger/wing has only 9 gates I believe.
FLL is still a disaster, every improvement, while an improvement, just keeps the mess going. Southwest continues to dominate Terminal 1 (where United is located), although they have moved almost all the international flying to MCO.
MIA – derr… their old stomping grounds on the F gates might have room to accommodate. But its an older, antiquated concourse. And the ULCCs and AA aren’t gonna sit back and let United return in the same force as before.
There’s no United hub in FL unless Spirit or Jetblue go down in flames and they either a) hoover up Ft Lauderdale or b) do a Special Aviation Operation in MCO and grab a terminal or three and elbow out the other carriers. There’s already a UA maintenance base in MCO and I believe there is a crew base as well, so it would make the most sense to me if there was space.
Tell you what though, as cripplingly expensive as trips to Disney tend to be, good luck convincing leisure travelers that the most expensive and least pleasant of the big carriers is a better value proposition than Southwest or any of the LCCs.
Stay away from TPA, we’re full
United needs to feed that 200 plus wide body fleet and has too many planes on orders and the fewest hubs of the US Big 4 so yes, they need one but it won’t be big and it won’t be successfull.
AA, SW and B6 own FL now and DL is a wanta be that won’t even with LA. I agree that UA will be in a financila mess under Kirby shortly, as AA digs out from his dumb ideas over the years.
Why hasn’t Ft Myers been mentioned? RSW is the only airport in SW Florida. On top of that there is room to expand. Just sayin.
Well United already has 3 Flight Attendant bases, FLL, TPA AND MCO and the later is the largest. They also have a cobase for Pilots serving TPA and MCO and with the new international terminal in MCO I am sure they are eyeing it there. They also are now bringing the 777, 767, 757 and the new 321 along with the 737’s of course into MCO already.
Put me in the Never Happen camp. The only thing you can do with a hub in Florida is what AA does, and that’s what United already uses Houston for. Florida is completely out of the way to connect anyone doing domestic travel, and any city in Florida is essentially surrounded by water. Atlanta and Charlotte connect cities all over the southeast. Similar distances from FLL and you connect… Cuba and the Bahamas?
At best all United would accomplish would be de-hubbing Houston in a play to compete better with AA for Latin America, which FL is much better situated to reach.
United has been flying daily 767s and 777s from MCO to EWR and IAH.. Along with 12 daily flights from EWR to MCO. This is a lot to do with anticipated winter travel but some incidental looks at the app shows lots of these flights are empty. At least they might be testing the waters for some growth.
It would be great for me if it was FLL. But TPA might be smart. It used to be a focus city for EA and I thought it was well-suited as a connection point (infrastructure-wise).
United need to add MLB in Florida. Its a major aerospace company hub. AA and Delta have big presence but UA is missing.
1) United tried & failed to make Orlando/MCO an hub (including nonstops to/from Mexico City) from 1991-95, as discussed in some detail at the link uploaded separately (to avoid having this discussion stuck in purgatory until reviewed & cleared for posting as reader comments with embedded links typically are) in a reader comment that follows below;
2) Delta also had an hub at MCO, including long-haul international flights to/from London/LGW and Frankfurt from 1987 until 2007 (when it also emerged from bankruptcy filed in 2005);
3) AirTran also had an hub at MCO from 1993 until 2014, when it was acquired by Southwest, which remains the largest airline at the airport.
Seems believable. UA recently opened an MCO/TPA pilot base. Only one other pilot base is not a United hub, also recently-opened LAS (CLE is tied together with ORD)..
1) Link for details re United’s previous attempt to establish an hub in Florida at Orlando/MCO from 1991-95 (includes list of destinations served in March, 1992), “When United Attempted A Hub In Orlando” referenced in my separate reader comment above:
https://thefloridasqueeze.com/2023/10/26/when-united-attempted-a-hub-in-orlando/
2) Click the History Tab for additional information re Delta & AirTran’s previous hubs at Orlando/MCO also referenced in my reader comment above:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orlando_International_Airport
@Billy Witcher – Any purchase of Eastern would have also been buying the insane IAM mechanics who intentionally drove the airline out of business. Even though there was a lot of love for Eastern in Miami and Atlanta, no other airline was willing to take on the toxic load of the machinists union who would torpedo their own company out of spite.
United tried a hub in MCO in the ’90’s, although not very hard.
The problem with a Florida hub is that wherever you could from that hub to another Floirda city, you could already get a nonstop from wherever you started to that destination. And that was before the likes of Avelo, etc. went whole hog on liesure point-to-point.
The other problem with a Florida hub is thatit would be the most heavily skewed to leisure travel and the lowest yield.
I’ve been saying it for years: if “United” and “Florida” come up in the same conversation, it’s because UA will buy JetBlue.
UA is a distant 3rd up and down the East Coast. Its plans for EWR have been hobbled by ATC concerns. It doesn’t fly to JFK and is slot constrained in LGA.
It will be years before there’s enough mainline gate space in IAD.
JetBlue is too high cost to be an LCC and do basic to compete with the Big Boys.
Now that UA is going big time into A321neos and XLR’s, the fleet incompatability issue is largely solved.
Put my money on Atlanta. They have 2-3% of the market right now. The heat map of their elite customers would show that they can grab additional business in Atlanta with a minor expansion. Atlanta is like NY/LA where multiple carriers can have operations beyond being just a spoke.
We have a Florida hub, I don’t understand this post. MCO/TPA on the 737
Any hub is a very expensive proposition!!
Florida is a great place to visit, but the only core concentration of business (high margin) traveler is MIA which is dominated by AA. The rest are leisure or retirees (low margin). Any connections via Latin American would require gates, customs, interconnection, lounge(s), crew bases, maintenance, customer support, etc. That’s a lot of cash flow with no guaranteed return.
Best for UA to clean up its own act via consistency, reliability, customer service, and leveraging its current hubs. Trying to cover 100% of the US leads to price wars and cash drain. Better to husband you current assets, especially if the market plateaus in the next few years.
Tampa is way too small for a United Hub.
Maybe UA should buy Spirit. Provides similar advantages as JetBlue sought including a larger presence in Florida, Planes, and crews.
Agree, United’s attempt to create an hub at Orlando/MCO in the early 1990s was “half hearted.”
Using more recent terms, “focus city” is likely a better description than “hub.”
Just the same, IIRC, “hub” is the term then used by the airline, although in retrospect that word seems more aspirational than what happened IRL.
Again looking back, legacy United’s attempt at creating an MCO “hub” also reflected its lack of north-south traffic in general, but especially during wintertime, when its east-west traffic was at its seasonal weakest.
Legacy United also suffered from a limited east coast presence in general vs Delta, US Airways or even AirTran (especially in the Southeast) until it acquired Continental Airlines in 2010, whose hub at Newark/EWR vastly increased United’s presence in the vital New York/New Jersey & key destinations in Florida, allowing it to finally partially overcome its long-time & distant “also ran” status in the Sunshine State.
Chasing people moving from high cost metros to lower cost metros is usually a losing proposition. AA backing out its AUS focus is the most recent example of that.
Sure, places like Austin and South Florida might be attractive from a tax and affordability perspective for a WFH professional from New York or California, but if these people could afford significant discretionary travel, they wouldn’t have failed in their original markets and had to move in the first place.
UA use to have a hub in Miami. After they reconstructed a few things, they pulled out of Miami. If my memory serves me correctly, it was after the merge with Continental Airlines.
Finally, United’s “half-hearted” attempt to create an hub at MCO in the early 1990s likely also was an effort to capture traffic in the aftermath of Eastern & Pan Am’s respective demise, both in 1991.
Alas, with the rapid rise of ValuJet (later AirTran) & plans by Delta, USAirways & United underway to launch their own low cost, “airlines within an airline” (to arbitrage/leverage lower costs & more favorable to management labor terms) such as “Delta Express”, “MetroJet” & TED, respectively in the coming years, all with flights targeting lower yield, leisure markets, especially in Florida, any aspirations by higher cost, legacy United to ultimately build out an hub at MCO likely would’ve had to have been aborted in the face of so much low cost competition at an hub where onward, short-hop, intra-state flights to FLL, PBI, RSW, SRQ & TPA stood little, to virtually no local traffic that would make those flights sustainable.
Of course, 30 years ago MCO was not the international destination that it is now.
Just the same, not sure MCO offers the high yield, premium traffic potential that MIA has – even if Brightline’s train offers the type of frictionless intermodal rail connection commonly found in cities around the world outside the United States that would make for a sustainable hub.
As to FLL, also don’t see that offering the high yield, premium traffic potential for a sustainable UA hub that AA has in MIA in the near term either.
But, who knows? Maybe United knows – or sees in its Magic 8-Ball – something the rest of us doesn’t know or can’t see!
Not sure why Florida. This state has been known for being politically extreme, especially if DeSantis is governer again. He makes other Republican governors look like centrists.
@ Gary — And beacuse Tim needs to act smarter than everyone else, he has to tell us why it must be a poor choice if Premium Air hasn’t already put a hub there.
If I was calling the shots at United I would pick LKL. They have been looking to get commercial service in there for some time. Great location between TPA & MCO. FLY NAVY!!!