Set up an account with PredictIt. Whatever your political stripes, you can still bet that President Trump will lose re-election – and earn your full bet back and then some.
As of this writing betting markets still have Trump with about a 10% chance of winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, as well as a 9% chance of winning the Presidency.
For example you can bet $100 that Biden will win the Presidency in a number of different forms, and when he does:
- You get ~ $110
- The betting site takes 10% of your winning ($1)
- And it costs you 5% to withdraw your money ($5.50)
- You get ~ $103.50 back
Basically you’re making $3.50 plus spending rewards for tying up your funds for a few months. There are various ways to play the bet, consider that there are risks if you’re literally voting Biden becomes President (health risk). Pay attention to the specific bet and you can avoid even that risk, just bet against members of Trump’s cabinet continue to serve in the next administration.
This scales to $10,000 bets or more across various sure-win categories, but at some amount you’re going to move the odds and you’ll no longer be able to generate enough winnings to cover commission and withdrawal expenses.
One limitation on this strategy is Predictit limits you to $850 in any one contract at a given time. There are certainly enough sure-win categories to accomplish $10k if you so choose though, but you’ll just need to spread it across enough markets to get there. It’ll also help lower the chances you move your own market too much.
Come on MAGA suckers…you say Trump’s definitely gonna win, get 11-1 odds on your money! Probably should put your life savings on it while you’re at it.
Most of these contracts are closed to new traders.
I must admit: I opened a position (Biden to win) a couple of months before the election. I thought the market would have settled by now, but stupid f-ing PredictIt is still saying there’s a chance Trump might win. PredictIt must be run by imbeciles. The money I have tied up in these contracts could’ve earned me way more in long calls on SPY.
PredictIt’s democracy-subversive decision to air legitimacy to Trump’s claims of election fraud notwithstanding, putting in $100 for a “guaranteed” $103.5 is about as flaccid as an 80-year-old’s pecker post-COVID infection. (Recent news suggests COVID causes ED). PredictIt is not insured like a bank or brokerage. A 3.5% return is easy to obtain in the current market by selling covered calls. In the spirit of this blog, how about buy-writes on $JETS?
Oh also, PredictIt went down for most (but not all) traders on election night where the volatility in their betting markets was extreme. They didn’t compensate anyone. PredictIt is garbage. If you will pardon my language for a moment. PredictIt is shit.
@Jason – I bet in 2016 and Predictit didnt decide for so long on so many markets. While they earn interest on your deposits! I believe their was one market they wouldnt decide was who is the first trump cabinet member to leave his post….and 2 of them left the same day but predictit couldn’t figure out what TIME they left. I ended up pulling my money out the odds were like 50/50 for months and months. Most bets are paid pretty quickly but they ones that get held up for so long ruined it for me and I stopped playing.
I’ve made a couple hundred bucks off PredictIt. I bet $850 that Trump would lose the popular vote and made about 250 bucks. You do have to keep your money in there for 30 days before they let you take out the money though.
I wish Gary would stick to travel. This is definitely not his topic, as all of you have pointed out.
Those who don’t think this is travel related are missing the travel rewards opportunity here. Can you be that blind? Did he really have to spoon feed it completely?
Interesting, not for me. But I appreciated reading about it.
So I can make 3 bucks at the risk of losing my entire bet? Why are you reporting this?
Betting on something with a near guaranteed outcome, generating credit card spend with enough winnings generated to cover the cost of withdrawal. Makes complete sense to me unless I’m missing something.
I believe all these contracts reached the limit of traders agreed to with CFTC in their no-action letter
@Sam — Possibly some card issuers classify the charge as a cash advance. The “near guaranteed outcome” is nowhere near as guaranteed as it may appear. Humans are notoriously bad at estimating probabilities. Moreover as it’s obvious by now, the whims of PredictIt might be holding more sway than they should.