For better or worse – and opinions in the comments here are split – many well-known commentators are convinced that Americans will be mostly living their normal life by this summer.
That means traveling – and it perhaps even means socially-distanced Disney World in the manner of Shanghai Disney with limits of 20% of capacity and very frequent cleaning. Under normal times Disney at just 20% of capacity, being able to get on any ride at any time, would be every kid living their best life.
And while much of commentary about the virus has split along political lines, with people supporting the President in favor of ‘opening up’ while those opposed preferring continued ‘sheltering in place,’ I include a tweet here from Chris Hayes who thinks this opening up is plausible too.
Remember this isn’t normative, an argument over what should happen, this is the prediction about what will happen that many are making:
My evolving working theory is that the vast majority of people will be mostly living their normal lives by the end of summer. I don’t believe you when you say you’ll avoid airplanes and restaurants until this is fixed.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) May 8, 2020
We’re going to Florida next month to the beach.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) May 8, 2020
I think "at some point, people's risk tolerance will increase" is a decent prediction. But I also think there are a lot of feedback loops. If people let their guard down too much, cases will rise again. You know people who are getting sick, you start being more careful again.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 8, 2020
I’d get on an airplane soon. No interest in sitting inside a restaurant.
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) May 8, 2020
I think this is somewhat plausible….but REALLY depends on what happens with the virus. Like, if there's another huge outbreak somewhere that's going to really affect people's behavior there and elsewhere.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) May 8, 2020
I’ll say yes.
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) May 8, 2020
It’s not a crazy take to think that the economy will keep more of us inside this summer – because we can’t afford to go out, or for that matter buy paper towels – than the virus will.
That doesn’t mean it’s the best course. There are plenty of places in the country where the virus may be raging, people shouldn’t travel out of those places and possibly bring the virus to some place where it’s contained. People in at-risk demographics, or who live and work with these people, should limit their own exposure too.
And it doesn’t mean this will last – flare ups in the virus may make us more conservative, and may even bring back lock downs.
It also doesn’t mean the travel industry will be anywhere close to back to normal – this is about changes in personal behavior, that suggest a modest return in domestic leisure travel. Businesses won’t be sending employees on the road. There won’t be conventions or trade shows. And many countries will remain largely closed.
But a combination of lockdown fatigue, plus a hoped-for respite from the virus over the summer thanks to seasonal effects, might bring out a return to some semblance of normalcy for a time, perhaps before a resurgence of virus spread sends us all back inside.
Leaving aside what you think people should do, and what you think you will do, what is your prediction about what they will do? Will people be living a mostly normal life by late summer?
I agree that some semblance of normal will have returned by summer. American people have subconsciously come to a realization that they are willing to accept a 1500/day death toll as part of what they will need to deal with until treatments are able to reduce it further. There was always going to be a tipping point in the death toll and this appears to be where it has settled.
There are all kinds of opinions about the future of the virus, the economy, and travel. These people might be thoughtful as hell, but they don’t appear to be epidemiologists or have other qualifications that make their predictions more valid than anyone else’s. I see no reason why we should listen to them.
And most thoughtful epidemiologists and other public health experts are saying that if social distancing is relaxed too much, and in view of the absence of the ambitious testing and tracing systems here, the virus will exceed its current levels in the weeks and months to come. And that the overall national rate is increasing, though we don’t see it because in NYC it’s finally decreasing. And that the official figures are under-reporting deaths by perhaps 50 percent, since they don’t reflect the excess deaths this year as opposed to previous years. In addition, the Trump administration’s own internal predictions are 3,000 per day.
I guess we’ll find out this summer, as we embark on a huge science experiment despite the best advice of the best scientists. But if a few thoughtful people think otherwise, so be it.
@John: If you look at the bulk of epidemiologists’ models at the outset of all this vs. what actually came to be, a good many people would be led to question the idea of relying strictly on epidemiologists to guide us.
Kind of like lawyers, they’re a risk averse bunch (rightfully so) and they’ll tend to steer folks toward the “safe harbor” option. That works when you are only concerned about a specific legal/public health issue. When there are collateral consequences and opportunity costs to weigh in, however, it can be advantageous to not always blindly follow such advice.
Interestingly, the US is opening up at roughly the same fatality rate as Italy and Spain, roughly 5 deaths per million people. I would be interested to see what Nate Silver’s group would discover comparing when countries start reopening to the fatality rate at the time or compared to their peak fatality rate or time from the peak caseload (or to some other variable) to see if there is a pattern that holds from country to country.
@Wes, So who is making the best predictions about what’s going to happen this summer. I hope you’re not suggesting it is politicians. If epidemiologists are steering people to a safe option, that sounds like excellent advice. Ignoring that advice is perilous. Anyone who trusts what the White House is saying is… well, you fill in the blank.
Wes is like someone in a war zone who, told to “duck!” when the enemy starts firing at him, ducks down, then stands up and complains there must not have been a real threat because, after all, he didn’t get shot.
No. You most likely didn’t get shot because you ducked, fool. Not because no one was shooting at you.
Summer automatically introduces a more casual attitude toward work and leisure. School is out, vacations were planned, the weather is warmer and parks and beaches beckon. Combine the need to get out along with being pent up at home for months and the public’s growing acceptance of the rate of infection and you have a recipe for a move to “near” normal. Planes and restaurants may not be full but the fear that keeps people at home will dissipate. (The virus will spread more quickly and we’ll see a resurgence by the fall.)
Nothing in Wes’s comment is wrong or offensive. Yet Bill comes in within the hour and calls him a fool. Sad we can’t have a logical argument about this issue, especially when there are very real consequences to lockdowns and the predictions have been so wrong.
@ farnorttrader — 5 deaths per million per DAY.
@ Gary — I predict a very sharp rise on cases by July. Then, the real panic will begin as hospitals are overrun.
Conor Sen (via Twitter): “We’re going to Florida next month to the beach.”
Forget about Covid-19. Ever heard of hurricanes?
smdh
@Wes
Agree completely. All these people who shrilly shout “listen to the experts!” are ignoring how wrong the experts were, as they are in past countless times. Argument by authority is a logical fallacy for a reason.
It all depends on how one defines “normal”. Will there be significant business in restaurants, shopping malls, traffic on roads, people on planes, in hotels, etc. in summer? Almost certainly yes. However, if one is talking about 2019 levels of business and traffic, that’s an emphatic “no.” For certain types of businesses: concerts, movies in theaters, nightclubs, it’s hard to imagine much business at all this summer.
SMH at the post-hoc alternate-reality rationalization crowd like Wes and WR2. If epidemiologists are wrong then that means they did their job right. Unlike the weather, we can change the trajectory of an outbreak. Bill D’s analogy is apt.
All eyes will be on this early round of re-openings. They’ll either get punished for it and we’ll all benefit from their harsh lessons, or maybe the tools will be in place to tamp down flare-ups as they happen. We’ll see.
My take on it is that we don’t have the tools we need for dispassionate risk assessment. If you are not elderly, have no underlying chronic health conditions, practice the CDC distancing and cleanliness guidelines, and stay home when feeling ill, what are the chances that you will die from or transmit COVID-19? My impression (but I’d like real data) is that the likelihood is really small. I believe (but I’d like real data) that most people could resume “normal” activity within the CDC guidelines with very little danger to themselves or others. The very old and those with underlying health conditions need to exercise extra care, as do people in close contact with them.
The quarantine regime was for the purpose of avoiding overwhelming the health care system, based on the fact that many had not been practicing COVID-safe practices and the rates of infection were growing exponentially. It was necessary temporarily, but only temporarily.
People who can travel safely should have the option to do so. Hundreds of millions of jobs worldwide depend on tourism and recreation, and if the risks involving healthy people who are not very old are actually quite low, there is no reason those people should continue the “stay-at-home” temporary emergency lifestyle.
@WR2, I bet you believe global warming is a “hoax”, and that climate science is a liberal academia invention designed to legitimize and perpetuate the said “hoax”.
WR2 is the same troll who basically slandered all of Europe on Matthew’s blog. and who thinks the ending of the payroll tax will be the silver bullet financial solution (one not even Moscow Mitch supports)
Yeah, the Laughter…err…Laffer curve.
The only way we return to some semblance of normalcy is if the uninformed sheep figure out they’ve been spoon fed a pack of lies. This is unlikely, because not only does the majority lack the requisite ability for critical thought, but the powers-to-be will ramp up the propaganda machine and the flock will return to their “pens”.
I believe people will accept the risk of contracting the virus if they believe that good medical treatment will be available as needed. You don’t stop living in order to avoid a slight risk of premature death. You balance the risk against the benefit.
If the hospitals saturate, the risk increases. People will then self-quarantine with or without being ordered to do so.
Let’s hope the hospitals do not saturate, but nobody knows what will happen.
Do you live in NYC NJ and Connecticut then STAY IN DOORS do not travel to Florida. do not use the subway or the bus. stay inside. Every one else wear a mask wash your hands and go about youy lives
As long people reflexively see as others as “viral threats”, I think returning to normalcy will remain an elusive concept.
@James N – now 0.5/10, your troll game is just plain sad now
My May/June Europe trip has been cancelled, but now I’m re-booking for September using miles tickets so they are refundable so I can play it by ear. There are great deals out there.