The National Mediation Board has called American Airlines and its flight attendants union to D.C. for a meeting this Saturday, after what the union described as “last ditch” negotiations failed just over a week ago.

The union shared this message with cabin crew today:

Friday, June 28, 2024
Negotiations Update #63

APFA and AA Called to Washington, D.C.

This morning, National Mediation Board (NMB) Board Members requested leaders from the APFA and AA Negotiating Committees return to Washington, D.C., for a meeting tomorrow (Saturday, June 29, 2024). After weeks of intensive mediation broke off last week, your APFA Negotiating Team has continued to aggressively press our case that American Airlines Flight Attendants need a contract that addresses our concerns. The time is long overdue for American Airlines management to resolve these negotiations and agree to the contract we deserve.

We will share more information after this meeting.

Flight attendants haven’t had a pay increase since January 1, 2019. Their contract became amendable four and a half years ago. The union told its members to expect to be released to strike. They’ve sent out strike handbooks to crew:

Inside, they’re warning crew about working if the union calls a strike:

American appears to have increased its financial offer during negotiations. A Mediation Board gag order, that the union has honored more in the breach than observance, means that the exact details of the company’s offer remain unconfirmed.

However a Mediation Board that doesn’t want to release flight attendants to strike, especially before the Presidential election, could certainly hang their hat on a new offer this month as evidence that negotiations haven’t reached an impasse.

• Since a majority of the Mediation Board was appointed by the President, and the President has power to delay any strike, he ‘wears’ the consequences both to the economy and to inconvenienced voters should the union strike. This would also spike airfares dramatically, as demand would chase remaining seats on Delta, Southwest and United.

• It could cost President Biden re-election and he’s presently in a difficult spot to begin with given that betting markets now show every potential swing state but Maine trending towards former President Trump.

• President Biden doesn’t want to have to make a decision to delay a strike himself, because this would cost him union support. In the much-discussed scenario where he steps down to make room for Vice President Kamala Harris to run, she couldn’t act against unions while remaining confident of securing the nomination in late August.

Does the President’s weakened polling make the Mediation Board more or less likely to release flight attendants to strike? On the one hand they may be less concerned about protecting the President. On the other hand doing so could ultimately be what costs votes in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona – and Democrats are trying to win in each house of Congress, too. Members of the Mediation Board want to be appointed to roles by future Democratic Presidents, of course.

I do not have inside information on the intentions of the Mediation Board for discussions on Saturday. This seems highly unusual. Could they be bringing the parties to D.C. to lock them in a room until they get over the finish line with an agreement? Could they be telling the parties in person that they will – or will not – declare an impasse, and therefore whether a 30-day cooling off period is set in motion which is necessary before any strike?