There’s a growing elite consensus that the TSA has been fixed and is no longer a problem. You see it expressed on Twitter by folks like Nate Silver. Former Wall Street Journal airline writer Scott McCartney articulated this view at the Southern Methodist University Texas Economic Forum where he and I spoke this fall.
I think that the narrative is misleading. TSA pays screeners more, so it doesn’t have a problem hiring screeners. That’s made a difference in security lines at some airports. But that’s the only dimension along which they’ve seemed to improve. It’s also the one most visible to travelers, so they’re getting too much credit.
It's… true? I've had 10+ quick and painless experiences in a row, at some point I might have to admit they're not the problem anymore. https://t.co/gJBSwuVxUV
— Zvi Mowshowitz (@TheZvi) December 1, 2024
What do we mean by good?
- The median checkpoint doesn’t have the terrible waits they did two years ago.
- In July 2023, TSA employees got big raises, aligning with the federal GS scale. An average 30% increase across the full TSA workforce, at an initial annual cost of $400 million, makes it far easier to recruit and retain workers.
- There are still plenty of airports where security waits can be miserable, and just as importantly those waits can be hugely variable which means showing up at the airport early all the time even when it wouldn’t have been necessary. Denver and Austin are two places where security lines are frequently terrible. The misery at LAX and New York JFK varies by terminal and remember that American Airlines doesn’t allow CLEAR to set up shop in any terminal they control.
None of this, of course, has anything to do with the TSA’s primary mission of security. It has to do with the social cost of pursuing that mission. But if you’re going to consider social cost, then surely the intrusiveness of the screening process matters?
- We still have to obtain advance approval to fly, with the names and dates of birth of travelers submitted to the federal government and checked against both banned passenger lists and watch lists.
- We still have to show papers at government checkpoints – and are now subject to facial recognition
- Most passengers have to remove shoes. Passengers are limited in the liquids they can bring through checkpoints.
- And most passengers have to submit to full body imaging.
- All to exercise a constitutionally-protected right to travel
There’s little indication that TSA is ‘better at security’ than they used to be. The claim really does seem limited to ‘doesn’t inconvenience travelers as much’ even as lines remain hugely variable; passengers still have to present and partially disrobe; and they still face liquid limits 18 years after word dropped about a sci-fi plot in Britain.
- TSA isn’t actually very good at catching dangerous items. The TSA’s own tests have shown 95% failure rates finding items going through the checkpoint on multiple occasions though they’ve done as well as finding one out of five. When their Inspector General has come out with scathing reports about their effectiveness, they’ve classified the findings to keep them from view. Since the results were embarrassing, TSA just no longer tells us the results.
- U.S. airport security uses flawed targeting lists that amount to pre-crime profiling, restrict the basic right to travel, and are ridden with errors and used for extortion. They check ID against lists of banned passengers and those they want to give extra screening to, but people wind up on the list in error and as retribution for refusing to become an informant. They get on the list not just without a conviction, but without due process for getting off when it’s a mistake (in fact the government usually won’t even acknowledge that someone is on such a list). And this has kept people from traveling, including traveling back to their home country which they’re entitled to do.
- TSA has poor disciplinary procedures, deploying problem employees in sensitive roles. Tens of thousands of TSA employees have been accused of misconduct multiple times.
- TSA is its own regulator, which is dangerous. TSA doesn’t set the rules for airport security, they also perform the screenings themselves. They watch over themselves, which means there’s no accountability.
Meanwhile, in much of the world screening is performed by either contractors or a separate agency, so that the screening rulemaker and regulator is different than the one carrying out the security task – the group in charge of security isn’t just regulating themselves.
The TSA’s “Screening Partnership Program” was at least a good idea, but once TSA employees were allowed by the Obama administration to unionize they’ve pushed back against its expansion.
In Australia there’s no ID or liquids check for domestic flights. In Hong Kong they don’t do the liquids dance either. And that’s worked out just fine.
There hasn’t been another 9/11, but that’s because there are fewer threats to aviation than we’d often admit (though TSA itself admitted it in court filings that were unredacted in error). In any case, even if TSA were effective, screenings at airports just makes other things relatively more attractive targets. Incidents in Istanbul and Brussels show that even risks at the airport get shifted to outside the checkpoint.
TSA Agents in Charlotte Watch News of the TSA’s Failure to Detect Weapons and Bombs, Instead of Searching for Weapons and Bombs (HT: Tocqueville)
TSA’s new analogic scanners are much slower than the machines they’ve replaced and the agency says it’ll be 2040 before they’re fully rolled out – while the agency feels they make it possible to lift the liquids ban, they are reluctant to do so until every airport has the machines (for ‘consistency’).
Having to show up at the airport 3 hours before a flight is costing the economy a minimum of $79 billion annually. In fairness, of course, airport screening isn’t nearly as bad as the TSA’s air marshal program which commits more crimes than they stop, and has never caught a terrorist. So maybe compared to air marshals we can say TSA is great?
Get off the soap box. There is no constitutional right to fly. Yes you can “travel” but that doesn’t mean you have a right to access an airport or fly on private company planes (there are no government airlines outside the military in the US) so either adhere to the process, elect people that will change it or quit whining
One person with one liter of a liquid is not allowed unless it is frozen which makes no sense. Ten people traveling together each with one tenth of a liter that they can then combine makes no sense either. Conclusion don’t expect sense from this agency.
Drrichard—It is a LOT harder to get ten people to collaborate on a terrorist plot and have them get together and without detection combine their liquids once on board. More difficult to even try, and with a much higher chance of failure because someone chickens out or messes up than one person carrying the full liter. I am not a fan of the liquid ban myself, but I disagree that this is an argument against it. Perfect security is unattainable, but security that makes things tougher or more failure-prone for an adversary can still be useful.
So far this year the TSA has found over 3000 weapons. And if that’s only 1 out of five, that’s better than nothing. Surely wish all were confiscated but at least it reduces the odds of an incident.
Clear DOES operate from the American Airlines terminal at LAX. I’ve used it.
@LA Guy – AA does not control the terminal. Where they do, CLEAR is not welcome. No clear at DFW A/B/C for instance but there’s clear at E. No clear at MIA D. AA does not control DCA even though it’s a hub, so CLEAR is available.
Mike you may be right but that doesn’t explain the “freeze is okay” part. Anyway I think Gary is generally right though it is also a matter of bureaucrats playing cya and putting on a show. And vast sums from Congress to private contractors who can share some back as “campaign contributions”. Discussing any of this with the agency Itself is like trying to reason with a guard dog.
Bunch of sickos groping our children and elderly without probable cause or reasonable suspicion. #EndTheTSA
Hi Gary,
Thank you for your post, this was very detail oriented. However,
I wrote an academic paper, where I argue that the TSA is a high-reliability organization and security should not be compromised because of a demand for greater air travel efficiency. Supporters of the FAA Modernization and Reform Act in 2011 complained about “too much government”, but such complaints regularly alternate with worries about “where was government”. Airport security policy theory in the United States has moved back to the period from 1973 to 2001, when efficiency was more valued than security.
Link to my academic article (I can send you a copy) – https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12198-024-00284-6
Went through the new Clear line at DIA on Tue and it’s a game changer there. Fastest I’ve ever gone through and it went so fast they only bogged down due to tubs not coming through fast enough.
@Mike B:
The liquid ban is now officially security theater, since TSA declared liquids legal for mixing baby formula.
Good for mothers who can now feed their babies on planes! But if the water is safe for them, then it’s safe for everyone.
To first commenter, we do have the right to fly in that the federal government does not have the power to restrict travel between the states unduly. It is and always has been a fundamental right to move freely among the states.
Sorry but as profit seeking merchants we need to charge ten dollars for a small bottle of crystal geyser water to make outsize profits
so we will do everything we can to stop the ban from being lifted
We appreciate captive passengers with no choice
who wouldn’t if you were in our shoes?
We would go broke in Australia where you can carry water beverages onboard
Joiseph. You have to separate the right to fly from the right to travel. Two different things. Plus, flights don’t always cross state lines: SF-LA, PHL-PGH, JAX-MIA, etc.
We have the right to travel, so the alternatives to flying are always available: train, auto, bus, etc.
Gary Leff as a Sovereign Citizen admiralty right to travel all caps corporation nutjob was not the Holiday Surprise i had imagined. Wow! Super wild.
Security theater
My favorite is how much grief they give crew members. Not only have we gone through extensive background checks, but I always think when I get randomly selected to go through a full screening: “You do realize that if I wanted to do something bad to or on the plane I wouldn’t need to bring a thing through security, right?”
You’re forgetting about the Known Traveller option. I signed up when I was contracting with FEMA and flew frequently. I figured DHS has my fingerprints and knows who I am. I have never spent longer than 10 minutes in line, or had to take my shoes and belt off, or do the laptop dance. I can only figure that increased post-9/11 checks have prevented copycat crimes, and that makes whatever we have to put up with well worth it. Now if only they could find a way to deal with obstreporous drunks…
You don’t need 10 people. You can bring 3 x 100 ml per a person, so you just need 3 or 4 people aka a normal family, to get to 1L – 1.2L.
The whole thing is a farce.
@BillP: You said, “We have the right to travel, so the alternatives to flying are always available: train, auto, bus, etc.” That is not always true because in March 2020 due to COVID-19 and traveling in your car, according to Ballotpedia, “27 states and Washington D.C. enacted travel restrictions during the pandemic.”
Ballotpedia.org writes, “At present, zero states have travel restrictions that governors or state agencies issued in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Overall, beginning in March 2020, 27 states and Washington D.C. enacted travel restrictions during the pandemic.”
“Right to travel”. Hmmm, none of the “rights” in the Constitution are absolute.
Sovereign citizen A holes use that as an excuse to drive w/o a license, registration or insurance. They forget the 10th amendment.
If a political candidate campaigned on ending the shoe removal nonsense = single-issue winner.
It’s security theater. But like any entrenched government agency try reforming it.
How much security do the people who work in the stores and restaurants in departure terminals have to go through when they arrive for work. (And the supplies for their stores.)
Seems like a weak point in the security system as many of these low-paid workers could be susceptible to bribes and a bottle of whiskey could contain gasoline.
That’s a fantastic rant full of genuine libertarian nonsense.
Americans do enjoy a right to travel freely between states, but the government reserves the right to regulate certain modes of travel. Members of the Sovereign Citizen movement make the same nonsense argument that because they have a right to travel, road regulations do not apply to them.
Their logic follows to incorrectly state that they do not require a driver’s license or registration for their vehicle …and they lose in court and go to jail over and over again because their contentions are incorrect, lacking any legal basis – just like the author’s contentions about our rights to fly without ID. You don’t and the author is simply wrong in their convictions.
Air travel is heavily regulated for a very good reason, and the safety record of air travel is absolutely unparalleled by any other mode of travel, due in large part to the regulations around flying. Flying is so safe that the next safest mode of travel doesn’t even come close to how safe flying is
Perhaps the author doesn’t have any recollection or historical of the rash of airline hijackings that occurred in the 1970’s, underscoring the need for airport security screening in the first place…or the events of 9/11/2001 that further underscored the need for more stringent security screening (and almost ended the airline industry in the United States as we know it). It doesn’t matter that the threat of another 9/11 style attack is minimal – the public would never accept lax security risking another attack like that, ever. And if the public doesn’t feel safe, our airline industry cannot exist
The TSA is part of a massive ugly bureaucracy, for sure…and they’re about as revered (and efficient) as the DMV, but that doesn’t make them or their mission unnecessary. They certainly have quite a bit of inefficiency, and some of the rules are both pointless and archaic. However, this does not justify the author’s libertarian rant in any way.
I suggest that the author does not fly commercial any more. Perhaps a nice trip on Amtrak, Greyhound, or even hitchhike their way across the USA. Maybe they can deal with even more regulations and learn to fly their own plane…or if they’re well-heeled enough, they can fly a private charter as avoid the rules established around commercial air travel.
As for me, I think that air travel is practically a modern miracle. I can take a morning flight out of New York and wake up on the west coast in time for breakfast…all for a couple of hundred bucks in relative comfort and extreme safety. 150 years ago, this was a perilous trip that took months to complete, requiring long term planning and steep costs (and if the Oregon Trail video game is to believe, with some family members dying of dysentery).
One thing of note, the author doesn’t seem to have any better suggestions to offer…except pointing out that Hong Kong doesn’t have the same restrictions as the US (which is apt considering that Hong Kong smaller than every state in the United States and air travel is not ever required within the island). Yeah, we have some stupid restrictions. Heck, I think that we should be able to carry a pocket knife onboard planes…but we still have it exceptionally good. Seriously, count your blessings…or at least come up with some viable suggestions instead of a fundamentally flawed libertarian rant.
My wife and I argue with TSA close to every occasion where we encounter them (except Love Field where they have come to recognize her). TSA routinely tells my wife that she cannot opt out of the metal detector in favor of the more thorough full body scanner because she has TSA Precheck. She has a lot of bobby pins in her hair and she knows it will set the metal detector off (which is an invitation to go to a back room and be grouped). We frequently have to involve a supervisor because rank and file officers treat Precheck as some kind of scarlet letter. When I messaged TSA on X about the problem, their response was “please send me your wife’s name and email address;” as if her identity has anything to do with problem.
this blog has become a place where Gary spends all his time sounding like a spoiled entitled brat. Oh no, Delta wont let me upgrade for, because they actually can make money off somebody else. Two Marriott properties are not giving me breakfast, I have to go through a TSA screening.
If traveling is so awful for you, STOP DOING IT.
Your entire thing is to try to manipulate the system to get better deals. The airlines caught on to people like you and you ruined it for others. It is why we cant have nice things.
IMHO, the absolutely most annoying thing to hit the planet is the slow AF Analogic screeners. Every other bag seems to trip those things at ATL and I cannot for the life of me understand why they suck so badly. ATL is bad enough to get through but those machines and load process can easily add another 15 mins alone to the whole screening nightmare.
One thing your article didn’t mention was the new screening machines that look like jet engines. They’re design is ironic. They are far slower at screening baggage than the old machines. I’m not implying they don’t work, I’m making a point that any machine that is considerably slower than the machine it is replacing would necessarily slow down security lines. Did they not time these before they committed to purchase them across the US?
TSA . . . keeping us safe.
One water bottle at a time . . .
Anyone who thinks TSA is keeping air travel safe is deluding themselves. It is pure security theater to make the masses think they are safe.
Get a job with an airline catering company. You can drive a huge truck onto the tarmac and up to a plane without going through any security at all. You can put whatever you want in the carts before you wheel them onto the plane.
There are as many employees going through back doors into the secure area or the airport as there are passengers going through TSA.
It is a joke and the sheep are buying it.