United Airlines is holding an event in October where they’ll reveal new routes they’re launching.

While it would be fun to think that they dropped the hint that one of those would be Kuala Lumpur with a drawing on the cover of the last paper issue of their Hemispheres inflight magazine, I’ve suggested that there’s just not enough premium passenger demand to make that work.

However, aviation watchdog JonNYC says that United will be adding a “different, high volume” destination in Southeast Asia.

despite that thing where UA had an image that might hint at KUL as a potential long-haul destination (negative on that,) I'd pick a different, "high volume" S.E. Asia add after the success of MNL.

— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) September 28, 2024

That seems clearly to suggest they’ll announce service to Bangkok. There’s been some speculation about Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, but that wouldn’t be nearly as high volume. The airline used to serve both destinations.

Bangkok Suvarnabhumi Airport

Bangkok, for United, was an intra-Asia route. There is no non-stop service from the United States. Thai Airways used to operate non-sop from both Los Angeles and New York JFK using Airbus A340-500 flying gas cans. Though they had reasonably high load factors, fares were too low and fuel prices too high to make the economics work. While Bangkok is generally a lower yielding destination than Singapore, where United also flies,

• They believe their service to Manila (historically low yielding) has been successful, and a U.S. carrier flying non-stop can generate higher yields than connections. United has non-stop competition from the U.S. to Manila from Philippine Airlines.

• Inflation-adjusted jet fuel prices are much lower than when Thai served U.S.-Bangkok.

• Boeing 787s are far more fuel efficient aircraft than Airbus A340-500s.

• And they could just announce an intra-Asia flight to Bangkok.

Chao Phraya River

Street Food in Bangkok’s Chinatown

While possible it seems to me less likely that the carrier could re-start a Vietnam operation. United Airlines flew Hong Kong to Ho Chi Minh City from 2004 through 2016. This was a Boeing 747-400 until 2011, downgraded to a Boeing 737-800 in 2011. At the time they had an 8% share of the Vietnam – U.S. market, while Delta and American (which didn’t serve Vietnam themselves, at all) sold 10% of tickets. Now, Vietnam Airlines flies direct from the United States with four-times weekly San Francisco – Ho Chi Minh City service using an Airbus A350.

Presidential Palace

Pho Hoa

United has an extensive Pacific network, from its acquisition of Pan Am’s network and from Continental’s Micronesia operation. They’re the only U.S. airline still selling fifth freedom flights in Asia.

Pan Am and Northwest Orient had traffic rights not just to fly to Tokyo, but special rights to fly beyond Tokyo to other destinations in Asia. Delta Air Lines inherited those rights to fly from Tokyo Narita to beyond-destinations, but the airline shut down its Tokyo hub. They got the most slots to fly to close-in Tokyo Haneda, and prefer to connect traffic over Seoul-Incheon onto their joint venture partner Korean Air rather than operating their own flights beyond Tokyo.

United Airlines picked up Pan Am’s Pacific network, which is one reason that United is so strong across the Pacific today. They merged with Continental Airlines, which had its own legacy Pacific operation and a hub in Guam. Continental Micronesia was merged into the larger combined carrier with the merger. They ceased operating intra-Asia flying completely in 2017, but used to serve places like Singapore, Seoul and Hong Kong from Hong Kong and used to fly beyond Hong Kong as well.

United Airlines launching non-stop service to Bangkok was only recently viewed as an April Fool’s joke to some, and we still don’t know whether the airline would plan San Francisco – Bangkok, or simply a fifth freedom flight like Tokyo – Bangkok on a Boeing 737 (a route only about 10% longer than Newark – San Francisco).

Trying Bangkok service wouldn’t surprise me, and would seem more likely than Saigon where there’s already competition. However I have to think that both are in the mix for consideration. United is a far more global carrier than U.S. competitors and has been willing to experiment with routes and so far has turned up with more successes than failures in the past few years, a contrast to pre-pandemic adventures such as secondary Chinese cities that haven’t restarted. MileagePlus members will have something to get excited about if the airline announces Bangkok in October.