United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby tells his airline’s pilots that American Airlines might “have to de-hub” Chicago O’Hare. Aviation watchdog JonNYC points to this discussion of the pilot meeting.
“Recap of Kirby and team comments from a standards meeting last week at the Flight Training Center.
A lot seems accurate, though the flight count plans for ORD and DEN were already reached next year.” https://t.co/ejF7UnAXjh
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) September 7, 2025
United expects “[o]ver 100 new planes will be delivered in 2026” with the Airbus A321XLR doing international flyng come the end of next year, adding new European destinations. With the airline’s growth they will hire at least 2,400 pilots in 2026 – they’d hire more but there aren’t enough available hotel rooms near their Denver flight training center (“this is why hiring is ramping up now instead of November”).
They’ll see new Boeing 787s in Los Angeles, San Francisco and Newark, with some San Francisco 777s redeployed to Newark and Washington Dulles. And they’ll be keeping Boeing 767-300s around “until the early 2030s” with an additional set of heavy maintenance checks.
United’s Chicago O’Hare operations will grow to 600 departures a day, outpacing Denver and Houston. And with United’s growth, they expect their advantage will grow and siphon even more business from American – causing their rival to lose too much money.
American has mostly ignored its Chicago hub for the last five years. It’s only just announced an expansion there, as the city plans to re-allocate gates away from American and to United which has been growing (American objects that their lease doesn’t actually allow this yet).
- American built back O’Hare more slowly after the pandemic than United did. It also scaled back international flying from Chicago, and hasn’t had the large aircraft either – since it retired Airbus A330s and Boeing 767s during the pandemic and then Boeing delayed deliveries of the 787s it had on order. Their decision to remove premium seats from aircraft meant they didn’t have enough to sell in Chicago.
- Some of this is a function of customers walking away from American. The percentage of American’s revenue from frequent flyers dropped markedly between 2016 and 2020, with the airline filling planes at low fares from infrequent flyers.
Before the pandemic started, 45% of American revenue came from 38% of customers flying more than once a year. However, four years earlier 50% of revenue came from just 13% of flyers. Getting even close to half of revenue required broadening the customer base in a short four years.
That followed a period of sharp devaluations in AAdvantage as well as product under US Airways management – including under Kirby as American’s President – and that management’s focus on competing mainly with Spirit and Frontier believing their model was the path to profitability (an odd position for a high cost carrier to take, and it did not work).
- United has had better facilities in Chicago as a platform for growth. Their size is supported by gate space. And that advantage is growing. In that sense, there’s a built-in advantage that’s growing provided they choose to continue flying heavily from the city.
It’s an interesting prediction that American would have to ‘de-hub’. Kirby doesn’t shy away from bold claims, like that the ultra-low cost carrier business model is dead. And he seems to love mocking his ex-employer, which has lagged the industry as his own airline’s performance has improved.
American’s position is eroding in Chicago in part, though, because United has convinced the city that less competition is good and to effectively shrink American’s footprint in violation of the airport use and lease agreement. In short, punishing American for being slow to ramp back flying even though the lease didn’t require them to do so yet. That’ll mean higher fares for Chicago flying.
‘De-hubbing’ doesn’t mean that American won’t have a significant presence. I take it to mean just scaling back operations further to stem losses.
Kirby and other senior leaders also shared that,
- United will no longer be the launch customer for the Boeing 737 MAX 10 as they convert orders to -9s given the delays of the larger variant.
- Washington Dulles will see a doubling in international capacity with new gates coming online there.
- United is “not looking to buy any other airlines or used planes” but is on the lookout for “slots/gates at every airport.” They’re acquiring New York JFK slots from JetBlue as part of their partnership, are trying to secure more to support up to 20 daily operations, and of course some Spirit assets may soon be on the market.
- They need to decide on a Boeing 777 replacement aircraft by the end of the year, and the Airbus A350 “is still an option.” In fact, United placed a firm order for 25 Airbus A350-900 aircraft in 2009, converted that to 35 Airbus A350-1000s in 2013, then to 45 Airbus A350-900s in 2017. Those planes remain on United’s order books, with deliveries pushed out to 2030 and beyond.
That’s an interesting fleet strategy, but overall points to continued growth both domestically and internationally for United. They have a lot betting on growth, and I wonder whether they’ll be able to sustain margins as they add seats and destinations and frequencies (and against any inevitable economic slowdown).
American needs to keep its flights at O’hrare- competition is good and seems that American needs to have better strategists too
The words ‘may’ and ‘might’ sure are doing a lot work here… So, if I read that correctly, Scott says his competition may just… give up? Got it. Anyway…
Let’s be clear that Scott Kirby’s ego relies on trash-talking everyone else even as he talks about how great of a job that he has done at UA.
If you are really as good as you think you are, people will know it.
AA will hold onto ORD as long as it has to; a Midwest hub is essential for any nationwide carrier.
you forgot to mention that he says that UA will its 763 fleet through another round of overhauls so they will remain in the fleet until the early 2030s. UA simply cannot walk away from international aircraft – no matter how old they are – for FOMO.
@ Tim — Meanwhile, DL continues to fly around trash can-like 763s…
and DL’s 763s have better cabins than UA’s 757s or domestic configured 777s; AA and DL don’t use 757s on longhaul international flights and they don’t have domestic configured widebodies.
Just like Max, you can’t stand the truth when it comes to how UA really is and not how the rah-rah songs are sung at Kirby’s dreamy festivals.
UA would love to dominate Chicago the way DL dominates ATL and AA does DFW but that ain’t happening so Kirby loves to sow fear in AA employees and customers.
If Kirby was as good as he thinks he is, everyone will know.
One of the greatest strategic failures in US airline history was the DL-US slot swap which handed DL the largest position at LGA. I still have the memo w/ Kirby’s name on it.
Kirby is getting on my nerves. He does trash talk a lot of carriers, but at the end of the day, his airline delivers a mediocre product subject to emergency diversions in faraway places. Never fly a UA 767 anywhere. Ever.
Just TRASH talk by Kirby.
American is not going anywhere
Remember when his former boss said AA would never lose money again? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Hes giving Dougherty arrogant optimism.
Competition maybe be good for consumers but a modest review of AA’s behavior over the years tells us that AA fears competition. When faced with competition they often tuck tail and run.
In the case of Chicago, Kirby maybe correct. If AA “dehubs” or in some ways pulls out of the market, fares will rise. Then AA can run a limited number of flights to those markets with the highest fares. This is right up AA’s alley.
Wouldn’t listen to anything that drag queen says.
Was wondering how long it would take for @Tim Dunn to make it about DL.
UA has decided to fiercely defend their position at ORD, and for good reason. Third largest market. Airport has limited LCC penetration. Great location for connecting. New runway configurations increase capacity.
And, while some think Kirby is trash talking, he has put his money where is mouth is. Not many people would say AA is a better airline. UA has made considerable stride to improve…and they’re getting there. Despite continued issues with contract negotiations, their employees remain generally pleasant, professional and customer-focused.
@ Timmy — Take your pills. It’s OK if your team doesn’t win the trophy. Mommy will still love you.
American is always a good option for me living in NC with its hub in Charlotte, United has no presence in the Southeast unless their is a United direct flight going to your destination, which mostly leaves out any other place in the Southeast.
Tim, people do seem to realize how well Kirby has done at UA and how successful UA’s turnaround has been thanks to him.
Even many non-UA analysts and bloggers enjoy him, thanks to his unvarnished views on the airline and industry at all. When most others will give corporate double-talk about strategies and synergies, he’ll talk as if it’s a conversation with just the two of you.
Plus, as the CEO, shouldn’t his messages serve to motivate the employees while encouraging the investment community that UA is a good place to invest?
He’s been talking, for years, about cost convergence and the unsuccessful ULCC model. He’s also talked about AA’s challenges, along with UA’s growth opportunities and the benefits they would bring.
Some people might not like what he says, but he’s got a pretty good track record of being correct.
AA might not be as good as UA but pushing AA out of ORD and UA achieves total domination would be a sad day for EVERYONE. Not just AA flyers but also UA flyers, UA will surge their price for sure since there’s no competition.
I’m curious what “doubling” international flights in IAD will look like.
@Will
There is a balance between price and connectivity. Let’s start with ATL and CLT.
Both are major fortress hubs. They have above average fares that are being challenged by LCC and ULCC incursion where it makes sense. Meanwhile both Atlanta and Charlotte benefit from connectivity that far exceeds what the local mark can support. That connectivity has helped drive massive amounts of economic development that provides tens of thousands of direct jobs to the local economy, not to mention tens of thousands of indirect jobs. Passengers may pay more, but the community benefits.
Now look at PIT, CLE and CVG…all cities that have been lost their fortress hubs. Did airfare fall? Yes. But so did connectivity. Try getting from one of these cities to another secondary or tertiary city these days. Unless you are routing through a hub you are, at best, stuck with sub-daily flights on smaller carriers. And, forget about much international connectivity. All of this has a downward influence on local economic development.
In the case of ORD, even if AA were to debug or significantly scale back, Chicago would still be a two airline hub city thanks to WN at MDW. WN’s presence keeps competition in check. And, yAA pulling out opens a window for UA to grow connectivity further. There are very few places served by AA from ORD that are not served by UA. With a larger hub, the economics of UA serving these cities might make sense.
Mark,
of course, Kirby and co. are turning UA around; it was horribly mismanaged for years just like AA. But no other CEO or exec team needs to spend as much time trash talking other competitors and talking how great they are.
IF you are really good, people know.
And, yes, investors and analysts love to hear from Kirby because he says what everyone else thinks but doesn’t say.
But let’s be clear that the vast majority of UA’s strategies came from DL; imitation is the greatest form of flattery but DL just doesn’t trash talk the competition and also has over and over delivered where UA has talked.
and Parker,
bringing DL into the conversation was in reference to the 767 discussion; UA intends to keep them up to another 7 years while DL is retiring them probably within 5 years. And UA’s 757 and domestic 777 fleets are far inferior to DL’s 767s while the 2 directly compete.
UA and its fans love to talk about all the good stuff but never are able to be honest about the negatives. I don’t want to hear another word about DL’s 767s given that UA’s oldest 767s will be approaching 40 years and will have a very second tier product compared to what other airlines and even UA has on its fleet.
I am rooting for AA in Chicago because they have worked for me when I have flown there over a number of decades.
Something close to 2/3 of American Airlines flights out of ORD are American Eagle. That has to really hurt.
goforride,
you realize that the average gauge (aircraft size) at ORD for both AA and UA which is the smallest of major hubs except for AA and DL at LGA and AA at DCA, with those two hubs being perimeter and slot restricted, creating inefficiency in scheduling and destinations.
almost 20% of UA’s ORD flights are on their CRJ550s which are 50 passenger aircraft w/ a similar cabin experience as larger aircraft.
The reason why Kirby wants AA out of ORD is because he knows how much that small gauge negatively impacts both carriers because they both have to operate lots of flights.in order to maintain viable hubs.
and Parker,
the difference between ATL and CLT is gauge. DL at ATL is 90% mainline with the highest average gauge among US carrier hubs.
AA’s strategy of flying to lots of cities from both CLT and DFW is far less efficient than DL’s from ATL or even from MSP and DTW.
and the value of ORD in AA’s network is the connectivity that will be lost in and through the Midwest if they don’t have an ORD hub.
ORD as a hub is far more strategically important than NYC is; DL and often B6 flies to the same places AA does from NYC. AA’s presence in NYC is much more about the local market while ORD is about an entire region of the country.
and CVG does still have 2 longhaul international flights – DL to CDG and BA to LHR; other carriers including the narrowbody TATL carriers serve several former legacy hubs.
and MDW’s runways are too short to handle longhaul international flights; WN doesn’t use RJs which support a number of routes for AA and UA’s ORD hubs.
WN can never fully be a competitor to UA.
Kind of rich for Kirby to bash AA when he and Parker destroyed it.