News and notes from around the interweb:
- Later this year United will have the largest airline fleet in the world, and surpass 1,000 mainline aircraft in the first quarter of 2025.
They have already claimed to be the world’s largest carrier by seat miles though not passengers or departures, given their long haul-focused route network.
- Southwest Airlines recognized $1.1 billion in the first half of 2024 from loyalty program partners, primarily Chase for its co-brand credit card.
Yet Rapid Rewards air travel liability is actually going down. The value of outstanding points is nearly $5 billion, but declining slightly. It’s not clear how much of that is from people redeeming more than they earn, or as a result of devaluation of points.
They report “record second quarter new Member additions” and “record spend on the Company’s co-branded Chase® Visa credit card” but record spend is what you’d expect from inflation alone, of course, and in an environment of economic growth.
- What it’s like using a Frontier Airlines travel voucher don’t ever take a bump when they’re oversold.
- Did you know the Qantas first class lounges in Sydney and Melbourne offer private office suites you can reserve, and they work as private family rooms with a couch as well?
If you’re travelling in Qantas first class, you can reserve a room when the First Lounge Concierge calls the day before your flight to offer a spa booking.
For anybody else, just ask at the reception desk on your arrival at the lounge.
- Fort Lauderdale says what?
- Good visualization of the end of the big American Airlines Embraer E-175 operation in Austin, plus Florida/Caribbean/Las Vegas leisure routes.
In this weekend's schedule update, American is cutting even more routes from Austin after cutting 21 earlier this year.
Here are snapshots of the carrier's schedule in December 2023 versus December 2024:
More: https://t.co/JiqZTzhrBv pic.twitter.com/VYc26RmRPO
— Ryan Ewing (@FlyingHighRyan) July 27, 2024
Does anyone really care if United has 900 aircraft or 1000 aircraft?
How about we start measuring airline size by the airline that has the MOST satisfied passengers? That would be something.
I wonder if Southwest’s talk about becoming more like other airlines indicates they may also be looking at generating revenue by getting rid of free checked bags except for people with Southwest credit cards.
UA can never “dominate” air travel in the US. Other than EWR, their hubs aren’t spectacular and tend to be in cities without great economic prospects. They have no natural advantage over Delta and American, which will continue to offer products that are basically identical. There is also some additional risk in being international focused. I think the “Big Three” all have the best business model in the worldwide airline industry and will be fine, but UA’s prospects aren’t better than it’s two major competitors.
@ Chopsticks — Houston, San Francisco, New York, Washington DC, Chicago, Denver, and Los Angeles don’t have great economic prospects? Would you prefer Charlotte, Miami, Dallas, Chicago and Phoenix OR Atlanta, Detroit, New York, and Minneapolis? What are you smoking?
Regardless of just about anything, it truly is amazing to see United’s profitability and growth without the benefit of the true fortress hubs that Delta and AA benefit from…
It really speaks to the leadership of the company that they’re able to successfully fight on so many fronts whether WN in DEN/Houston/Chicago or AA/DL in competitive markets like NYC and LAX.
But it will also be interesting to see how United’s future domestic fleet heavy on mainline aircraft vs regional will compete on frequency vs a carrier with a regional-heavy strategy (AA) and vs the goldilocks Delta strategy of regional/small mainline/Mainline domestically.
Assuming APFA ratifies their contract, the AFA contract for United has an obvious path forward to provide stability to their flight ops for a few years.
It will be interesting to see how United deals with so many widebodies over the coming years. So much of their widebody numerical size is due to the frame usage of Asia flying which just isn’t there right now and doesn’t appear to return in terms of mainland China anytime soon.
Gary should remember that one of Jon’s better leaks was UA’s fleet plan which said they should have been over 1100 mainline aircraft in 2024 – and they won’t hit 1000 based on their own guidance.
DL is likely to be just under 1000 by the end of 2024 and hit 1000 in 2025 as well.
As others have noted, other than for bragging rights, the number of mainline aircraft doesn’t matter to any real customers.
As for settling for the AFA, it will likely cost UA more than $500 million and increase their costs.
As for hubs, anyone can choose to argue as they wish but the simple reality is that UA trails DL by billions of dollars in domestic revenue per year AND total revenue per year.
Based on 15 years of traffic data, DL has led the big 3 in capacity growth and that is not expected to change.
and MAX is right that UA”s growth to Asia is just not going to happen at the rates it has because China remains closed and UA can’t make money for 6 months out of the year with the level of capacity it through into the market last winter.
Across the Atlantic, UA grew much slower than DL this year precisely because DL earned twice as much in profit as UA even though DL flew less capacity.
There isn’t just overcapacity in domestic markets; UA has a bad case of overcapacity in many of its international markets.
Add in that the 787 can’t reach most of the Asian cities UA once flew from the east coast, and UA’s Pacific network is not going to be near as much as some people believe.
The growth that so many think UA can pull off will very likely not appear.
“ Based on 15 years of traffic data, DL has led the big 3 in capacity growth and that is not expected to change.”
Not only did it already change in 2023 where United led in growth, any basic reading of aircraft orders and carrier guidance would show United will continue to outgrow delta and AA over the coming 6-8 years, on average (give or take delivery delays here or there).
You’d have to have to have your head in the sand to ignore United’s own stated domestic growth plans. Even if the max10 is delayed, United already has plans with Boeing to transition that order to Max9s, if necessary. A backup plan delta does not have with their max10 order.
@ Tim Dunn, Isn’t UAL’s guidance for 996 aircraft by end of 2024 and then the article which forecasts over 1000 by Q1 2025 seems pretty plausible? Have you been smoking something again Tim?
@ Tim — I am a real customer, and it matter to me. More UA aircraft = less money spent on Premium Airways.
@ MaxPower — Delta will continue flying crap, while talking about aircraft orders. It might need to slow down on those aircraft orders as they lose their customers in droves to superior airlines that don’t charge a prmium for the honor of waiting 6 days on the floor in ATL.
@Chopsticks
That’s funny.
I’ll take EWR, DEN and LAX as hub focus cities ANY day over MSP, DTW and that hell-hole known as ATL.
But, you do you. Denver and LA are great hub cities and, thank god, I seldom have reason to go east of the Rockies unless I’m going to Europe. On a nonstop. Out of LAX or SFO.f
What about how old the United aircrafts are?
Andy Gene,
UA said last year they would ALREADY be at 1000 aircraft at this point.
They may well be in 2025 but so will DL.
AA will likely get to 1000 later in 2025 or 2026.
1000 mainline aircraft is a given for all of the big 3.
DL’s mainline fleet is still younger and larger than UA”s and better equipped – more planes with seatback AVOD and high speed WiFI.
Doesn’t matter what you think but those are measurable positions in the industry.
@tim Dunn,
Neither UA or DL have a younger fleet than AA. They refleeted when prices were low and so were interest rates. The cost of the new FA contracts at AA and soon UA will visit DL PDQ. So try not to Jiz yourself over competing airlines labor costs.
Bunch of size queens . My planes are bigger then yours. Sound like a bunch of congress and senators trying to push one on each other.
Pilot,
nobody is arguing whether DL or UA have younger fleets than AA.
The question is what benefit does AA get from that younger fleet and the answer is that they spend much more on maintenance than DL, burn 7% more fuel per ASM than DL, and have more debt than either DL or UA.
AA went on a spending binge over the last decade, UA is trying to do it in the next few years esp. if Boeing can deliver MAXes while DL has the most consistent fleet spending pattern and is spending where it will result in greatest efficiencies – new generation widebodies, the A321NEO, and A220.
UA is trying to undo decades of overreliance on regional jets, AA is happy to have a large regional jet fleet but just want it to be newer RJs, while DL has about 200 less regional jets in its system than AA or UA and still generates more revenue.
Dillon is right that arguing about fleet size matters ONLY to airline geeks of which Scott Kirby is one and also makes big decisions for United.
The pure number of new aircraft will not determine whether any of the big 3 become dominant; a whole lot of other factors will matter.
And if UA succeeds at getting all of the aircraft it wants in each of the next 5 years, its balance sheet will look worse than AA’s does right now.
DL has proven that it can spend less on fleet and aircraft ownership, maintenance and fuel costs than AA or UA and still generate more revenue and higher profits.
So what? 1000 airplanes does NOT make a good airline. United Airlines needs to be more service oriented. Someone thinks that United Airlines is the best airline company in the world. Really?
If only United could figure out how to have more NS from IAH to Europe than making us go through the hellholes of EWR and IAD. Is it that hard to have a NS to Madrid or Rome?