Pilots have been seeing record wages in new deals at the major carriers, in the face of paying too many to retire at the depths of Covid while not adding more to the pipeline, a recovery in air travel, and the time and cost to introduce new pilots as a result of government regulation lobbied for by the big pilot union ALPA. The tide may be about to turn.
- Following the 2009 Colgan Air crash, ALPA successfully got Congress to enact fare more time-consuming and costly training rules.
- This is known as the 1,500 hour rule – flying time required to pilot for a part 121 carrier – even though the pilots of the Colgan Air flight had more than this.
- These aren’t structured training hours. Anything will work – it’s mostly touch and go clear air takeoffs and landings from the same airports, over and over, rather than mirroring the experience of commercial operations although even time in hot air balloon counts (the hot air balloon can even be tethered).
- At the same time, new fatigue rules were introduced which can be helpful and which did address issues at play in the Colgan Air crash.
When American Airlines paused pilot hiring in June, it joined Delta, United, and Southwest who had all slowed or stopped pilot hiring completely. That took pressure off of regional airlines, where the pilot shortage had been most acute – major airlines could hire pilots at top wages, but they were hiring away from smaller carriers.
Now, though, airlines have had too much capacity as one after another reported during their earnings calls. Everyone grew faster than passenger demand and that’s without even a recession. And that’s without even the expected level of new aircraft deliveries. Boeing’s problems and inability to deliver aircraft was surprisingly merciful for airlines seeing their profit margins squeezed by competitive airfares.
Ultra low cost carriers like Spirit and Frontier in particular have struggled, in part because they’re no longer so ultra low cost with wages rising since the pandemic. United CEO Scott Kirby even tells a story where Spirit doesn’t make it after the Biden administration blocked their lifeline of a JetBlue acquisition.
Without the same pilot shortage pilot wages won’t keep rising. Will they fall? Enilria reports that many JetBlue pilots certainly think so, amidst the carrier’s troubles, offering on message boards:
• “(pay) concessions are coming”
• “(concessions) are inevitable”
• “it’s just a matter of when; days…months”
• “a bankruptcy judge will do it (if we don’t)”
• “hold off on big financial moves”
JetBlue has an open pilot contract and is struggling compared to peers in the industry. They aren’t in a position to push up costs. But it’s not just JetBlue that may be looking to hold the line on wages.
Pilot forums for other carriers, including American, have been seeing discussions of carriers more strictly enforcing minor rules that in the past might have seen employees given a pass or mere reprimand. Senior pilots, especially, need to be careful to adhere to airline rules because moving them off payroll has the greatest benefit to the bottom line as they’re most highly paid.
Sun Country reported that a single pilot made $750,000 at the top end. Meanwhile at the major carriers over $500,000 is common.
But receding demand could be accelerated by an economic downturn. And in the future the need for pilots may be halved as AI improves, and AI co-pilots are safer than human ones. At that point the union call for two pilots in every cockpit (they used to call for 3 and 4) will be anachronistic – pounding fists in the air against the tide of safety. In the long-term it won’t be nearly as lucrative a career.
But short-term risks are the same reason why it may make sense to grab deals now, especially as economic grounds shifts and balance sheets weaken at some airlines. For instance, while American’s flight attendants union probably got the most economic value it could in its new tentative agreement there are real arguments that the union prioritized the wrong things for its members yet voting down a contract could put them in a spot of renegotiating in a less favorable environment. American does not expect to make any money this quarter.
American’s mechanics got a record new 5 year contract ratified right as the pandemic started. A few months later in negotiations and they wouldn’t have gotten that same deal, and conditions for this next one may not be as favorable.
Unwinding pilot salaries at the major US airlines will be messy and probably impossible. The only way will be through large carriers going out of business and the emergence of a new generation of carriers capable of competing nationally. The major airlines and their political patrons will not let the latter happen.
When I’m flying my balls ride in the right seat. They haven’t had a raise in years.
The increase in pilot wages is exactly why the LCCs are struggling on the brink of failure and why the majors profit has been down despite record profits. ALPA accelerated the push for AI with their chosen method to pursue higher wages.
Private air travel will help the way going forward as a pilot until AI replaces everything. Which we have the technology for we just need the people to accept it.
Was this entire article written based off of a few anonymous posts on public airline message boards?
Let me guess, the next article will be about how pilots are discussing whether a Miata is a sports car…
Gary is a type Z reporter which AI will replace shortly.
Also, it seems he is running out of points and money. Low grade hotels and reports. No more Bilt partnership. Time’s rough Gary.
Clearly this article was written without much thought or research. Yes, pilot salaries have gone up quite dramatically with the latest contracts. But looking back over the past 20 years these gains were making up for the losses due to airline managements mismanagement and then bankruptcy filings. The 2008 recession and pull back kept demand low which slowed pilot output. The age restriction for pilot retirement went up 5 years during the same timeframe which again put downward pressure on pilot output. After 5 years the retirement gates opened, the recession had passed and people were flying again, but the operating contacts and wages were based upon contacts from the past. And management bought back shares and have big bonuses to the C suite folks. There’s still a shortage of pilots and the reason most companies put a hold on hiring is due to aircraft manufacturing slow downs, be it FAA investigations or supplier issues. Demand has weakened it hasn’t happened yet. Most every flight is fairly full. Single pilot oops won’t happen for 10 plus years, especially at the pace of our FAA. They still haven’t rolled out CPDLC across the country yet and that’s only using it for part of its capabilities. Other countries have been using the full up system for over 10 years now. Ask the Jet Blue pilots about how they make double pay for their schedule and you’ll see a better reason why they say pilot pay is going to drop. Because their management is finally making changes to their routing structure and cutting back on low yielding routes. The airlines that gave big pay raises to their pilots are still making money. Also note they aren’t buying back shares anymore either.
Commercial piloting is straightforward enough that AI/ML is not used – just regular programming. Edge cases are the main challenge. But it’s far less variables than driving.
@Jake-1 Oh, bless your heart. It’s clear you have no idea what you’re talking about. Let us know how that goes though!
@nick….are you kidding me!?? Of course a Miata is a sports car, one of the all time classics, any pilot that doesn’t think so probably should be grounded!! or at least required to sleep in the back seat of a Trumpla , I mean Tesla on their next layover……my gawd man real men proudly drive Miatas!!
Now the real question is are Air Force fighter pilots the best pilots in the world?
While Gary throws in a lot of extraneous information, his basic thesis is correct.
Airline labor costs have grown dramatically post covid even as labor efficiency has decreased.
Airlines that are capable of generating the revenue to cover those costs are doing ok – and right now the line between the haves and have nots in the US airline industry falls with Alaska, Delta and United on one side of the line and American, Southwest and most of the rest of the industry on the other side as have nots.
Delta specifically said during covid that it was offering massive early retirement packages in order to get its labor costs down post covid; they did not let go of too many people.
Delta has had to spend money on labor increases it probably did not expect due to labor shortages.
Delta has also set the standard post covid for increasing wages including with the first settlement post covid for pilots – which was very expensive and which other airlines had to match – followed by generous regular increases for flight attendants.
United talks much about the collapse of the ULCC model which it very much wants to happen so UA can grow its own capacity but DL and UA both know they can afford higher labor costs while most of the industry including AA cannot.
It should also be noted that AA and UA FAs do not have a settlement and it will either cost a half billion or more in retro or their unions won’t deliver for their members – which just validates why DL FAs are better off w/o a union. WN isn’t making the profits it needs to but they got labor deals out of the way which certainly will help as they fight off Elliott.
As for the communication from United that you cite, it doesn’t matter how much they communicate if they don’t solve the problem of the delayed flights and get the operation moving.
UA regularly starts their operation with more cancelled mainline flights than AA, DL or WN even though UA operates a smaller mainline operation than any of the big 4.
And UA’s ability to manage its operation as well as AA and DL was highlighted yesterday when UA’s Tokyo operation was a disaster with multiple diversions and cancellations due to weather and a volcano. AA and DL along w/ JL and NH and KE and OZ managed to operate their Tokyo and Seoul flights with little disruption.
Worked as an aviation attorney….the dirty secret is that the computer flies the plane 99% of the time. With advancements in AI, only one pilot will be needed in the future even on the biggest planes. Worst part is that AI will become safer/better at flying planes than humans, as a supercomputer will only make a mistake once (if ever) on a particular event/issue, learn from such mistake, and then never make that mistake again. If we can have successful and profitable driverless taxis (common now here in PHX), where there are many more variables than flying, then aviation will certainly happen soon. Only a matter of time. Easiest way out of these expensive contracts is bankruptcy. I sometimes think these airlines actually want that to occur for a fresh start.
@Pilot A – hit a little close to home about the future of your profession that you want to attack me? and make up stuff while you’re at it? “No more Bilt partnership” I don’t know what you think I make from Bilt but you’re imagining it, it was never at all $$$ for me and there has been no change that I’m aware of in this.
One more note: it’s easier to file corporate bankruptcy than people may believe. You only need to show that liabilities exceed assets on paper. Financial engineering can go a long way toward convincing a bankruptcy judge….Agreeing to substantially higher, long-term fixed wage contracts increases the liabilities side of the equation to make it that much easier to void or amend the wage contract in bankruptcy. The irony!
Thank you Privacy, that sums it up best. One has to look only to the not so distant past to see. Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t live in reality.
@ Nick. I’m sure the Miata is a fine car and very reliable. There’s a catch. If you own a “sports car” that you are certain will start and be trouble free, you don’t own a sports car.
Gary,
Have you ever considered that writing articles that are poorly researched and sourced and contain lies you have admitted to in the past isn’t good for the blog?
So now let me back up the above.
All but one of the quotes from JetBlue Pilots are from the forums at airline pilot central. Those are anonymous comments and since the site doesn’t verify employment could have been left by anyone. And all of the comments I’m talking about were from one person.
That hardly justifies an article whose headline clearly implies that this is a general sentiment at the airline.
Not to mention that single pilot airliners are a LOT further off than you imply. Something I’ve written about here. https://liveandletsfly.com/airline-automation
Also you continue to make the claim that pilots building hours to meet the 1500 hour rule do so by making one endless lap after another at some small airport in good weather. That’s simply not true and any basic level of research besides RAA talking points would lead you to know what you’re saying is false. I had 1500+ hours and an ATP before getting my first airline job and there was a LOT more to those hours than you imply. I don’t know anyone who built their time the way you imply. I think you know this is true which would mean you’re lying but I can’t prove that.
Where I do know you’re lying is the nonsense about balloon hours. You admitted the last time I commented on one of your posts about the 1500 hour rule that the balloon remark wasn’t to be taken seriously as you knew people were not building hours that way. Yet here you are still beating the same balloon drumbeat even having admitted you know that while factually correct in terms of logged time you know full well it’s not happening. Which means you’re willing to say things you know to be at best a gross distortion of the truth just to make a point.
Does writing articles like this really help the blog? Is this what the “Thought Leader in Travel Does”?
@121Pilot – I think your self-interest is clouding your reading, “single pilot airliners are a LOT further off than you imply.” really, what timeframe do I imply in this article?
I believe they won’t happen because knowing how humans operate, the 2 crew system keeps the other pilot “honest”.
If you do domestic flying, and there’s nothing to do, or no one to talk to, what do you do to pass the time? Read a newspaper, use your phone, read a book. All not allowed, and all don’t happen because there’s 2 sets of eyeballs up there keeping each other honest.
And just like we have bad lawyers, doctors etc, we also have bad pilots. I’ve seen it, I’ve flown with them, and I’ve seen bad decision making in my own cockpit. Sometimes even from me. It takes 2 to make informed decisions and avoid tunnel vision if you start heading down a rabbit hole. Delta has a 2 pilot crew requirement in their contract. I’d imagine if such a plane were ever developed, other groups would follow suit quickly. I’ve got almost 20 years left. I don’t see it happening in my career.
Just like Carl Icahn reduced his shares of JetBlue right? That was pulled from the airliners.net forum and was proven dead wrong. Gary does it again….this time Airline Pilot Central
Exactly who would be the backup in the cockpit if there was only a single pilot and they were using the toilet or disabled or suicidal? Remember Germanwings?
Watch UA1175 among others where the crew saved 300 plus lives. Now look at poorly paid less talented crew in other parts of the world and compare crash rates in the western world versus eastern world and tell me post this article again. Everyone hates Gary… but especially pilots.
I’m shocked you continue to quote that enirla guy knowing that his sources are complete trash and taken from anonymous forum posts. Its just lazy writing Gary.
For anyone interested, these sham articles are basically based on not much of anything. See for yourself:
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/jetblue/148012-3-billion-dollars-new-planes-wide-bodies-2.html
You ought to be ashamed of yourself
I saw a comment from Tim Dunn….
Didn’t even read it….
All I saw was that EVERY sentence started with “Delta….Delta…Delta….”
Give it a break, dude. Geez…..
I’ve worked in aviation maintenance as well as a cockpit for 2 decades now. Even if a single pilot solution was approved by the FAA and ICAO it would require a redesigned cockpit at a minimum. This would be a major aircraft modification that would take months. Assuming US depots could modify roughly 100 planes a year (that’s alot) it would take about 35-40 years to update all 3000 or so planes owned by just the big 4. It would be decades after approval before we saw single pilots ops as a regular feature just based on logistics issues alone.
If there was an actual pilot shortage the airlines would be paying to train pilots like employers do in other fields where there is a an shortage.
I can see pilot pay stagnating below the inflation rate in the future, after the legacies agreed to generous pay packages last round. If an ULCC goes bk, that will also increase the supply of commercial pilots while demand is not growing as aggressively as post covid. There will always be 2 pilots in the cockpit. Due to medical emergencies and safety on the flight deck, the public will demand it.
@James – Nobody’s perfect and like it or not, Gary is one of the best of the points and miles bloggers. Who else does detailed analysis and turns it into something most people can understand? He does this as a one man show. If you disagree, who do you think is better? TPG?
Going down to 1 pilot is at LEAST a decade away and likely much more.
1. Think German Wings — pilot committed suicide by crashing into mountain. We are (wisely) not going to allow having only one pilot in the cockpit who could crash the plane intentionally.
2. A single-pilot airliner is not in any production pipeline if even on a drawing board. Developing a new airplane takes 10 years from inception.
Further automating the handling of aircraft WILL make it safer but for some time that will be combined with needing two pilots in the aircraft. It won’t go to one until the rogue pilot risk is addressed.
Mr. Mocker,
you are clearly so triggered that you are incapable of even reading and commenting – which you just confirmed. So why do you bother even showing up? I am going absolutely nowhere
You can’t stand that Delta has shaped a large portion of where the industry is now regarding labor-related issues and they did it from a position of financial strength and its demonstrated better ability to compete with lower cost carriers; post-deregulation, none of AA, UA or WN has successfully set up a large “hub” operation in a city where another carrier was already dominant and yet that is exactly what DL has managed to do in BOS and SEA; in BOS, DL has overtaken B6 as the largest airline.
The ability to gain revenue has everything to do with the costs including labor that a company can pay.
AA, UA and WN have followed DL in labor settlements post-covid.
It doesn’t really matter if you don’t like that conclusion but it is clearly factual and accurate.
But thank you for throwing a temper tantrum so I had the chance to expand on what I originally said.
AI Co-pilot, lol. I remember hearing 30 years ago that all NDBs and VORs were being removed from the national airspace system. Let me know when the last NDB is finally removed. These were installed 70+ years ago and are still in use in places.
ATC and airplane need automation and improvements before anyone should be thinking about one pilot operation. While voice recognition is getting better, I’m not sure that it’s good enough for a computer to work the radio. Getting international agreements on this will be difficult, or at least time consuming.
Then, redundancy comes into play. A single computer replacing one pilot isn’t sufficiently reliable. If the controls on the computer pilot don’t work, does it stop being about to fly? You don’t want it being able to touch the controls on the other side. While autopilots deal with this, they can also be disengaged by the pilot or by conditions outside it’s design. How does one do CRM between a pilot and a computer?
I’m sure the industry is working on these issues, but I doubt it’s ever coming to current airplane production.
I’m not excited about flying on a plane with one pilot. An AI copilot is a lot more attractive than no copilot. But still no. On the other hand, I wonder if planes could be equipped so that a drone pilot could take over in an emergency. That is a lot less scary to me than the first two options.
A leff is a ball…..a leff is a ball.
Part of the problem is the pilots’ unions competition for the most lucrative contract. If airline A’s pilots get a nice contract, then when airline B’s pilot contract comes up, their pilots will insist on getting paid more than airline A pilots in the next contract. Then comes airline C and so forth. When airline A’s contract comes round again, the pilots want to be at the top again and the cycle starts over until the airline’s payroll is to great that they can’t stay in business. Along the way, some upstart airline with much lower costs will come along and be able to undercut the legacy carriers ticket prices, until they to fall victim to high worker contract costs.