It’s only this past fall when the U.S. began allowing non-residents who had been to Europe in the previous 14 days to enter the country by air. The March 2020 policy that was supposed to help keep Covid-19 out of the country somehow lasted more than a year and a half. This was replaced by a policy of requiring vaccination and testing, and requirements were just extended to land crossings for non-residents this month.
When the U.S. imposed travel bans on some African countries once the Omicron variant was detected this was supposed to ‘buy time’ for the government to be able to do something about the virus, before it entered and started spreading across the U.S. However,
- The Omicron variant turns out to have already been here and spreading when the ban was put into place
- The travel bans were porous, they applied only to non-U.S. resident foreigners, U.S. citizens could return with the virus
- The U.S. didn’t really have much of a plan to ‘do something’ with any time this might have bought anyway, even if the virus wasn’t already spreading here and even if it were strict enough to matter
Travel bans can make some sense for a country that has kept the virus out and has pursued a policy of containment. It’s debatable whether that’s the right strategy for a country to pursue, but it is a coherent one. The U.S. has never seriously entertained such a strategy, or been in a position to pursue such.
A vaccination requirement could make sense for entry for one of two reasons,
- When vaccines are sufficiently neutralizing, as mRNA vaccines were against earlier strains (we’re still vaccinating against the ancestral Wuhan strain). There’s some chance that variant-specific vaccines or boosters could restore this, and there’d be confidence that the person entering the country wouldn’t be spreading the virus. But it’s fairly non-sensical to require this when there’s no such requirement for everyone else already in the country.
- Because vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization, boosted individuals using mRNA vaccines are 90% less likely to be hospitalized from Omicron than unvaccinated individuals. If the concern was someone coming into the country who might become hospitalized in a situation where beds are scarce and health systems overwhelmed and every hospitalized case counts then this would be a logical requirement.
The first case is unsupported by current vaccines, and the second case is time-limited. Once hospitals are no longer overwhelmed a vaccine requirement makes little sense. There’s no more threat from unvaccinated foreigners than unvaccinated Texans.
Meanwhile a testing requirement as currently deployed makes far less sense.
- Antigen tests are accepted, and these show current infectiousness rather than detecting infection. Someone may be infected and spread the virus after they’ve arrived in the U.S. even though they tested negative.
- This is doubly true since tests are permitted any time the day prior to travel departure. A negative test might be about 48 hours old by the time someone arrives.
Now, if The U.S. testing policy actually kept infected people out of the country (it doesn’t), what would this be accomplishing?
- The virus is already spreading widely in the U.S., so this doesn’t ‘keep the virus out’
- Vaccines and boosters are already available, allowing most Americans to be protected against severe outcomes anyway
- Outstanding treatments are about to become more widely available
You might think we’re trying to keep out new variants but,
- That hasn’t worked thus far with the most serious variants
- With the level of infection in the U.S. it’s likely that residents already here are one of the main sources of creating new variants in the first place
Our current policies aren’t just failing, they have failed. But there’s a stickiness to current policy because lifting them creates a problem of optics. There’s can’t be a recognition that these policies have failed, except by a new administration that hasn’t already owned them. It took over a year and a half to even allow vaccinated Europeans testing negative for Covid into the country even when coming from a place where prevalence of the virus was lower than in the United States at a given time.
That’s why I’ve held out hope for the 2022 midterms creating the opportunity to end policies that don’t make sense for public health, as part of a political necessity to ‘declare victory’ over Covid-19.
But what does that look like in practice? It’s not clear whether lifting all restrictions that make little sense has to happen for this. For instance, Argentina just announced an end to testing for vaccinated residents entering the country. This half-measure still allows politicians to,
- Frame themselves as responsible, because they’re only lifting restrictions on vaccinated even though that vaccination requirement provides modest protection of others and doesn’t affect the aggregate course of the nation’s experience with the virus
- Differentiate between foreigners and non-foreigners, which entails both a distinction between voters and non-voters and perpetuates the ‘fear of foreigners’ that have characterized the pandemic.
We will start to see restrictions of various kinds lift this year – different restrictions and different times and in different places at different times. Even though most tests the Biden administration is sending out aren’t able to be used to meet the administration’s testing requirements to enter the country it seems unlikely they’d lift testing requirements at the same time as ramping up testing distribution. The idea that testing is both needed and not needed isn’t a great political narrative.
So I maintain hope that ‘sometime before the midterms’ will bring some relief. That will mean after the current virus wave has subsided, of course. And I’m cognizant that the administration won’t want to remind the country about promises we’d be over this come July 4th, and that bureaucratic rules tend to outlive even their logic-as-narrative. Although the U.K.’s recognition that travel testing served no useful purpose provides some hope that the U.S. will do the same, perhaps first for vaccinated citizens in order to draw on convenient narratives and continue to appear responsible.
Unfortunately I don”t think they’ll be lifted until the next presidential election and even them I’m not so sure. One of the main reason I don’t travel any longer.
I’m not sure what your point is.
Pre travel testing can reliably (of course not 100%) keep most actively infectious people from traveling. And it does not pose a significant barrier to travel to those who really want to.
In principle I don’t think you should be traveling with an active infection regardless of the infection rate of your destination.
And here come the very interesting comments…..
The point is that it doesn’t matter anymore. The mild omicron wave has peaked. It conferred immunity not just against itself but against other variants. It served as an airborne vaccine.
The “pandemic” is over. Lockdowns are killing people, and the virus isn’t. Time to get over it and live life.
As a physician I completely agree with you Gary. Travel restrictions are not a proven or effective way at mitigating new infections. There is too much variable human behavior involved. On the other hand mandating Kn95/N95 masks on flights may have a tangible affect. It may not but at least we know using KN95 are effective.
It has been sad to see how little the public health establishment has been willing to adapt to the science as we have learned more. Very early on they decided that the message was “mask, distance, and vaccinate.” Even as these have proven to be totally worthless (masks and distancing) or worthless in terms of spread (vaccines), they continue to sing the exact same song while completely ignoring the role of health/nutrition (imagine if early on they had strongly encouraged Americans to exercise, lose weight, and eat healthfully) and natural immunity. The world is going to live with covid, omicron has likely greatly reduced the threat going forward, and it is LONG past time for government to leave everyone alone and let individuals, parents, and business owners make their own decisions.
I don’t understand why you need to test to fly back from spending a week on a mountain in Switzerland, but don’t need to test if you spend a week partying in Miami. It makes no sense. If there’s a test requirement for flying, make it a test requirement for *all* flights — whether international or domestic.
Great analysis Gary! One important clarification from the first paragraph: vaccination and/or a negative test is still NOT required for U.S. citizens crossing a land border back into the U.S.
January 20, 2025
Not until there’s a Republican in the White House again.
I am Board certified in Pediatrics and Allergy-Immunology… E-mailed the CDC last month asking why walking or driving across the US or Canadian border into the US (or entering on a cruise ship) did not require testing, but flying from Canada or Mexico or cruising – MUST BE TESTED. No reply.
Another issue is that you can test positive after a full recovery. This could gone on for several weeks. Yesterday I got a letter from my physician saying I had recovered, which the airline recommended I take with me on my next foreign trip. The line also said their people would recognize it, but I could just imagine what could happen if somebody does not. The MD’s assistant said it was the fourth one they had written that day. What is the point of all this?
Don’t bet on the politics to change. Bet on economics. And what was mild about Omicron, the numbers in the hospitals don’t show that. Maybe in the big dip that comes every so often they can change testing requirements.
“Please welcome the newest member of the LabCorp Board……Hunter Biden!!”
What do you do when you find out your closet is infested with moths? Well, if you are the government you would replace the screens on your windows, to make sure no new moths come to join the existing infestation.
Ryan, exactly. I cancelled my Bahamas trip due to all the uncertainty. Would love to see this change!
From what I remember the USA started requiring a negative covid test in late January 2021 after Biden became president. I was travelling international in fall 2020 and back then USA didn’t require covid tests for US citizens.
Unfortunately I think this is political moreso than scientific.
The U.S. test entry requirement has probably done far more to keep Americans from traveling abroad than it has preventing the spread of COVID here at home!
@ Gary — It is unfortunate that world governments and health organizations bungled the communications on vaccines so badly. The vaccines do not work at all in keeping you from getting Omicron, but they work extremely well in keeping you from getting severely sick or dying. In hindsight, these shots should not have been marketed as vaccines, but as a prophylactic against severe disease.
We don’t need unvaccinated people coming here either with covid or getting covid while here and spreading it around and/or taking up hospital space. Eventually our covid numbers will come down and we don’t need a constant influx of covid coming in from the rest of the world. Don’t see the harm in covid testing pre-flight and yes it should be a requirement before domestic flights too. Sure it won’t catch every covid infected person but it will stop some from getting on the plane and spreading it around the plane and airports. These things can be looked at again once the covid numbers are down significantly. Just because there is covid here doesn’t mean we need more people running around spreading it, especially if they are coming from countries that might have new variants developing. Taking a simple test really isn’t a big deal and people should know if they are infected before they fly away from their homes.
@Gene – first, boosters still reduce symptomatic infection by ~ 50%. second, many vaccines have similar characteristics. third, the mRNA vaccines were sterilizing earlier in the pandemic, we’re still vaccinating against the ancestral Wuhan strain, we’re lucky this heavily mutated virus still responds to it…
@Tom – hospitalization numbers as a percentage of infections have certainly been lower, regardless the average hospital stay length is down 70% with omicron.
@tim – correct that is for non-residents only
Flying back from Germany years ago there was someone two seats over hacking and coughing the entire trip. I got so sick I almost died and was ill for weeks. If there had been testing, that individual likely would not have been allowed on the plane. I am far more likely to get in a packed plane knowing that there has been even a small modicum of prevention.
Geoffrey,
It’s because the US Government can constructively deny US citizens travel to the US by means of regulated air carrier but the USG can’t deny recognized US citizens entry to the US when said US citizens are already present at a US port of entry.
@Gary – Let’s say boosters still reduce symptomatic infection by ~ 50%. How long are they effective for? If current studies are any indication, not for long. Meanwhile, the more boosters you inject, the greater the odds for you to “win” a prize called “side effects” courtesy of Pfizer and Moderna. Meanwhile – I hope you’re aware that natural immunity does just as well, if not better, against COVID – so why bother with the boosters if study after study is showing the effectiveness of a booster is questionable at best (compared to natural immunity)?
“Second, many vaccines have similar characteristics” — Last I checked, I don’t remember seeing any other vaccines causing so many health problems across the age spectrum. Explain to me the teenagers who get myocarditis after getting the vax? Athletes going on hiatus suddenly due to heart problems? If you get myocarditis/pericarditis from the jabs, good luck. The waiting time in many metropolitan areas are at least a couple months.
“Third, the mRNA vaccines were sterilizing earlier in the pandemic, we’re still vaccinating against the ancestral Wuhan strain, we’re lucky this heavily mutated virus still responds to it…”
In other words, these “vaccines” have been a failure. Promised as a panacea from spreading it, getting it, not having to wear a mask.. all lies, deception, or complete incompetence. The odds of you dying from COVID is about the same as you dying from a Tesla.
And people still wonder why the US puts up these unnecessary and overbearing COVID regulations. If people with your intelligence level (read: higher than average) continue to believe what Dr Fauci/Walensky says, America is going to be in a locked down/fear state for a long time (until a non-liberal takes over).
Its just like the war on shoes or water, its here for ever.
@ John L — Cut the health experts a little slack. They weren’t lying (like Donald Trump does EVERY time he opens his mouth), they were just flying by the seat of their pants and hoping for the best. Maybe you could have done better?
@ Gary — Is reducing symptomatic infection really that great of a thing? If you have NO symptoms, you are more likely to leave home and spread it to others.
@Gene – that’s not just making symptomatic people asymptomatic, it doesn’t appear that the total # of asymptomatic infections grows, just a function of what’s being measured in some of the latest research. when the pfizer and moderna trials were designed, and then reported out at ~ 95% efficacy, that was against symptomatic infection. it wasn’t until additional research was done that they were shown to be sterilizing.
In any event, the vaccines are helping people clear the virus faster as well, and to be less infectious while they have it (virus covered in antibodies).
You may not like it, but the only way the mania and nonsensical testing/vaccine/mask mandates are going to end is to hold your nose and vote OUT the current ruling party and vote IN the other one (not that one is any better than the other). That way, the new one doesn’t ‘own’ this mess and can then do away with all the useless restrictions which clearly don’t work anyway.
Leave the current ruling party in office and they can never reverse course because doing so would be like admitting failure, something they cannot and will not do.
@Gene: As a pulmonary physician, I can state that the science demonstrates that symptomatic carriers have a greater viral load and are therefore more likely to spread to others, especially if unvaccinated or inadequately vaccinated.
@Breathe Free: Glad to hear the pandemic is over. I assume it’s not epidemic either? Hurrrah! Although…Given over 70 million active cases across the world yesterday, and over 2000 deaths yesterday in the US alone, I think maybe you are being a tad optimistic? Yes, omicron is less deadly (as a percentage of cases when compared to Delta), but since it is so much more contagious, you end up with as many or even more daily deaths than with the delta variant. I am not sure where you are living but here in the US, it’s a big issue. Our hospitals are again being overwhelmed. Add to that that two of our effective monoclonal antibody treatments are not effective against omicron. As for omicron being it’s own vaccine, sorry, wrong. Certainly no lasting immunity and if we get another variant because of idiots not doing all that is needed to stop the spread, then those who did not get vaccinated (as in really vaccinated), are certainly at risk for re-infection. Lastly, other than restrictions from the pandemic maybe affecting people spiritually, let’s see the scientific data that lock downs are killing people and that the virus isn’t.
Just one question to Gary and the physicians against ore-flight testing.
Would you all volunteer to sit next to someone who just tested positive for a 9 hour flight back to the USA?
Oh, right. You think they shouldn’t test, and no test means no virus and no risk (eye-roll emoji).
Of course it won’t catch every infected person just like seatbelts won’t save every life in an accident, but it will reduce risk. Y’all start a spreadsheet of names of volunteers to sit next to someone with the for a long flight.
And to the physicians. Your offices are most likely less cramped than a 777 coach cabin and I see the staff at my doctor’s offfice spraying Lysol every 10 or 15 minutes, but there’s no risk, right? What is wrong with you all?
*pre-flight
*someone with tbe *virus
Thank you @SteveH. After reading the comments from the other ‘physicians’, I was beginning to question the quality of medical care here. Thank you @SteveH for what you do and all the hard work. And yes, the statement that nobody is dying from Covid is ridiculous. But as we have seen during the last few years, some people will believe anything they are told, true or not.
Does anybody remember the 22 year travel ban on non US Citizen w/ HIV/AIDS?
I mean really; it’s the United States government.
@A Texan – No travel testing requirement for MIA-SEA which has the same flight time westbound as BOS-LHR eastbound
Where are my pearls to clutch? Won’t someone PLEASE think of the entitled globalist’s needs??
It is obviously politics, and not science that keeps ineffective Covid “interventions” in place. In the USA, the next domino to fall will be school kids in masks. That should be gone in March. Then general masking. Testing for air travel is stickier, I can’t predict an end date. Harder to sustain through spring when there should be very little Covid (either because Covid is seasonal, and/or Omicron is the end). We’ll have to see.
@Gary, I agree it does not make a lot of sense to require it on international flights but not long domestic flights, but that is an argument for doing more testing, not stopping it altogether. And you did not answer the question about whether you would volunteer to sit next to someone who had an active Covid infection. I assume that means your answer would be no, which would be quite hypocritical of you. I would think you probably fly business or first on long-hauls, but the poor folks back in coach deserve just as much protection as the people in F and J. People with active Covid infections that are able to be detected by rapid Covid tests have no business rubbing elbows with uninfected pax on any flight domestic or international. Do you really not agree with that?
@Gene – cut the health experts a little slack? THEY LIED!!! And still do. These lies sound familiar?
* “pandemic of the unvaccinated”
* “Ivermectin doesnt work”
* FDA saying monoclonal antibodies are no good against omicron, so make sure no state can give it out (read: Florida)
* Vaccines will allow you to be Covid free
* Masks protect you.. or they dont (depending on Fauci’s mood)
* Hospitals are filled with only unvaxxed
I cut them slack up to month 3.. after that, they ruined 10s if millions of lives. Kids still have to wear masks in school in communist school districts.
END THE SCAMDEMIC
@Gary – Why don’t we just let the market decide, isn’t that the libertarian thing to do? Stop government financial support of any type of Covid treatments and hospitalization. Let people take on the financial risk of getting Covid and at the same time allow insurance companies to deny coverage or raise rates on people they deem as exhibiting risky behavior? (Kind of like auto or life insurance.) Isn’t government financial support of hospitals and Rx companies (and Airlines) just “Socialism”? If you want to influence peoples behavior, hit them where it hurts…. The pocketbook.
@John L – Why not just end all government support of monocolonal antibodies? At $1200-2100 a single treatment it seems like a huge waste of $$ to me. Make people pay out of pocket for any treatments (vaccines, antibodies, etc.. ) or hospitalization, and let the informed consumer decide. Otherwise it is just “”communism”.
I agree Ed. Let’s take your idea and go even farther. If “not vaxxing” is considered “risky behavior”, then let’s make sure we financially penalize folks who fall in these categories
* Obese people
* Anyone with STDs
* Anyone who smokes (cigarettes/pot/you name it)
* Anyone who drinks
* Anyone who goes for a jog in a city full of smog
@Eds183 – “Why not just end all government support of monocolonal antibodies? At $1200-2100 a single treatment it seems like a huge waste of $$ to me.”.
Funny – forcing the US taxpayer to spend literally 10s of billions of dollars on vaccines is a waste to me (and to many others who keep themselves in good shape). That’s not communism – that’s literally p1ssing money away for the benefit of big pharma. Also, I think it’s a huge waste to literally spend tens of thousands of dollars on heart bypass surgeries caused by obesity or smoking.
While you’re at it – let’s just take your idea to the max potential and make everyone pay for their own health woes. What a radical idea – promoting the idea of taking care of yourself as best as you can.
@John L The insurance companies/employers already financially penalize people who smoke. Insurance companies financially penalize people who are obese, and or have a history of chronic illness all the time. (Just price out life insurance with any of those conditions) On military bases tobacco use is verboten, mainly because the cost of all military healthcare (including the VA) is part of the military budget. I love actuaries, they are people after my own heart.
If there was a two or three shot drug regimen that had a 90% chance of keep obese people from getting diabetes, drinkers from liver disorders, and smog breathers from lung disease – I can assure that Insurance companies and employers would be allowed to be financially punish an individual didn’t take the jab. It is getting close to the point that getting hospitalized with Covid is basically a choice, just like smoking. (I don’t really know why you bring up STDs, there is no evidence that the by far most prevalent ones cause chronic health issues) Not hard stuff, let the data professionals price the risk and make people bear it.
Bojo has taken these steps to increase his popularity after he was found to have smashed covid rules 2 years back. Stop being gullible
I know I’m talking to a wall but:
I can see John L (and plenty others)
did his internet research.
This is the fault of all the home schooling done in this country when parents teach their children “the facts of are what you say they are as long as you’ve done your internet research. “
@Gary Leff — with all due respect, some counterpoints to certain claims made above …
#1. “Because vaccines are highly effective against hospitalization, boosted individuals using mRNA vaccines are 90% less likely to be hospitalized from Omicron than unvaccinated individuals.”
This claim is *no longer* True —
https://www.wnd.com/2022/01/government-report-95-omicron-cases-among-vaccinated/
https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/12/31/vaccinated-21-times-more-likely-to-get-omicron/
#2. Another issue to add to your points about testing — those *Free* 4-test kits being given out by this administration appear to be a one-time give-away to the public, so what does that achieve, in the long run? What happens after those 4 tests have been used up? What happens if the family has more than 4 members that could benefit from those tests? This appears to be more about engaging in a publicity stunt, than trying to make any real impacts in our national testing strategy (if one even exists) and national testing coverage, over the long term!
#3. An observation about testing for long-haul flights — so many people have expressed fears about flying during this pandemic, even though airliners use controlled airflow management systems with HEPA filters, which should, theoretically, reduce threats of getting infected, while onboard, down to (claimed) insignificant degrees. Some agencies should do actual field survey tests onboard such flights using upcoming sensors that can detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air, since I haven’t seen any credible scientific studies that prove actual spreading while onboard. Flight crews and passengers *have* arrived at their destinations and tested positive for infection, but they were determined to have gotten infected *before* they got onboard (which means that testing before flying does *not* necessarily work, since one can still get infected after taking the test but before boarding).
#4. “For instance, Argentina just announced an end to testing for vaccinated residents entering the country.”
Such a practice *might* work IFF those jabs were actual vaccines rather than cellular genetic therapies that, as we all should know by now, do *not* prevent those already jabbed from getting infected or further spreading Omicron!
https://www.theepochtimes.com/omicron-spreads-faster-than-delta-within-vaccinated-individuals-danish-study_4192825.html
#5. “Although the U.K.’s recognition that travel testing served no useful purpose provides some hope that the U.S. will do the same, perhaps first for vaccinated citizens in order to draw on convenient narratives and continue to appear responsible.”
… perhaps “convenient narratives” but “IN-convenient *Truths*” when *Facts* now indicate that we are actually experiencing a “Pandemic of the Vaccinated” —
https://thenationalpulse.com/2021/12/14/a-pandemic-of-the-vaccinated/
—————————————————————————————————————
@Eds183 — “Why not just end all government support of monocolonal antibodies? At $1200-2100 a single treatment it seems like a huge waste of $$ to me.”
So I gather that you also do *not* support wasting $3000 / course of treatment using the federal government-touted Remdesivir, which has an astounding death rate of 25%?
https://healthimpactnews.com/2021/whistleblower-lawsuit-government-medicare-data-shows-48465-dead-following-covid-shots-remdesivir-drug-has-25-death-rate/
@Jorge Paez — “This is the fault of all the home schooling done in this country when parents teach their children ‘the facts of are what you say they are as long as you’ve done your internet research.’ ”
Do you have any *actual proof* of your claim, or did you just fabricate that out of thin air to suit your personal agenda against home schooling? Do you even realize that home-schooled kids way out-perform those other institutionalized students on national standardized tests? How do you propose to explain that?
Can’t wait till the mid-term elections so I can vote all these clowns out of office!