Much of the U.S. has been under shelter-in-place orders limiting non-essential movement outside the home, and several cities now require masks when going outdoors. The goal has been to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. That doesn’t mean we do not get it, it means many of us don’t get it yet.

• “Flatten the curve” prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and overwhelming hospitals and medical professionals’ ability to care for patients

• Improve treatments for patients severely ill with the virus.

Best case we may see a vaccine some time next year, but even then it’ll probably only be available to health care workers (and politicians) at first. It’ll take time to mass produce after that. I don’t expect most of us will have access until 2022 at the earliest. Here’s a good discussion of where things stand with a vaccine.

Until there’s a vaccine life may not return truly to normal. We may be asked to social distance. We may be asked to wear masks. And many countries may have restrictions in place on who can visit, and what documents are required to do so.

However the world will – hopefully – begin returning to some semblance of normal in the coming months, having bought time to expand testing, expand health care capacity to deal with a potential influx of patients, and perhaps most importantly doctors and researchers will have learned much about how to treat patients with the virus.

Already we’re seeing patients in respiratory distress doing better on their stomachs, and drugs like remsvidir showing promise. That doesn’t just improve patient outcomes but also shortens hospital stays, further reducing stress on available health care resources (which in turn improves patient outcomes further).

Older people and the most medically vulnerable may still be asked to avoid travel, but for many it’ll be something we can consider again – provided we stay distanced and practice good hygiene. Where will we be able to go? There are really two parts to this question.

1. Where will it be safe to go?

2. What places will let us in?

At this point we’re really just making guesses about both, and that is one thing that makes it difficult to plan trips. Australia has been talking about limiting travel out of the country by their own citizens through the end of this year, and perhaps next year. The President of France has talked about limited entry to Schengen Area countries at least until the end of summer (the decision isn’t his to make alone).

• People living in hot spots can assume there will be restrictions on their travel

• We’ll want to avoid places with heavy concentrations of infections. It’s tough to know where those will be, because even those peaking now risk a second wave. Singapore is facing that now, for instance.

• If there’s seasonality to the virus many places that look like reasonable destinations now may not be in a few months. Africa and South America could be in for real challenges.

• Countries handling the epidemic especially badly may be places to avoid, like Mexico (far worse off than official counts suggest) and Brazil.

I’d guess that much of Europe will actually be safe to travel to. Italy, Germany, France, and the Scandinavian countries should be through the worst of things. I’m guessing there will be some seasonality to the virus (the National Academy of Sciences says no but the report contained some clearly faulty arguments such as Australia facing an out of control virus spread that leave me skeptical). That should give a window to visit even if things got bad again later in the year.

It’s amazing how well Taiwan has handled this public health crisis. Despite significant links to mainland China, including Wuhan flights, there are only about 400 confirmed cases out of a population of 24 million. South Korean has managed well, and I’d bet on Singapore to deal with the second wave as well.

Australia looks like things are well under control, but again seasonality makes me worry a bit for their winter months.

The question here of course is what countries will allow us in and that’s harder to say. Several secluded island nations that live off of tourism do not have many cases, but face tremendous risk importing the virus. Can they sustain their economies in lock down? (You might ask ‘can anyone’?)

My bet is that most Americans will be able to travel domestically come late summer, and that Europe will be a possibility. I’m really hoping for Southeast Asia, but I’m incredibly hungry for prawn mee soup, laksa, and kottu.

Where do you think you’ll be able to go?