Much of the U.S. has been under shelter-in-place orders limiting non-essential movement outside the home, and several cities now require masks when going outdoors. The goal has been to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. That doesn’t mean we do not get it, it means many of us don’t get it yet.
- “Flatten the curve” prevent everyone from getting sick all at once and overwhelming hospitals and medical professionals’ ability to care for patients
- Improve treatments for patients severely ill with the virus.
Best case we may see a vaccine some time next year, but even then it’ll probably only be available to health care workers (and politicians) at first. It’ll take time to mass produce after that. I don’t expect most of us will have access until 2022 at the earliest. Here’s a good discussion of where things stand with a vaccine.
Until there’s a vaccine life may not return truly to normal. We may be asked to social distance. We may be asked to wear masks. And many countries may have restrictions in place on who can visit, and what documents are required to do so.
However the world will – hopefully – begin returning to some semblance of normal in the coming months, having bought time to expand testing, expand health care capacity to deal with a potential influx of patients, and perhaps most importantly doctors and researchers will have learned much about how to treat patients with the virus.
Already we’re seeing patients in respiratory distress doing better on their stomachs, and drugs like remsvidir showing promise. That doesn’t just improve patient outcomes but also shortens hospital stays, further reducing stress on available health care resources (which in turn improves patient outcomes further).
Older people and the most medically vulnerable may still be asked to avoid travel, but for many it’ll be something we can consider again – provided we stay distanced and practice good hygiene. Where will we be able to go? There are really two parts to this question.
- Where will it be safe to go?
- What places will let us in?
At this point we’re really just making guesses about both, and that is one thing that makes it difficult to plan trips. Australia has been talking about limiting travel out of the country by their own citizens through the end of this year, and perhaps next year. The President of France has talked about limited entry to Schengen Area countries at least until the end of summer (the decision isn’t his to make alone).
- People living in hot spots can assume there will be restrictions on their travel
- We’ll want to avoid places with heavy concentrations of infections. It’s tough to know where those will be, because even those peaking now risk a second wave. Singapore is facing that now, for instance.
- If there’s seasonality to the virus many places that look like reasonable destinations now may not be in a few months. Africa and South America could be in for real challenges.
- Countries handling the epidemic especially badly may be places to avoid, like Mexico (far worse off than official counts suggest) and Brazil.
I’d guess that much of Europe will actually be safe to travel to. Italy, Germany, France, and the Scandinavian countries should be through the worst of things. I’m guessing there will be some seasonality to the virus (the National Academy of Sciences says no but the report contained some clearly faulty arguments such as Australia facing an out of control virus spread that leave me skeptical). That should give a window to visit even if things got bad again later in the year.
It’s amazing how well Taiwan has handled this public health crisis. Despite significant links to mainland China, including Wuhan flights, there are only about 400 confirmed cases out of a population of 24 million. South Korean has managed well, and I’d bet on Singapore to deal with the second wave as well.
Australia looks like things are well under control, but again seasonality makes me worry a bit for their winter months.
The question here of course is what countries will allow us in and that’s harder to say. Several secluded island nations that live off of tourism do not have many cases, but face tremendous risk importing the virus. Can they sustain their economies in lock down? (You might ask ‘can anyone’?)
My bet is that most Americans will be able to travel domestically come late summer, and that Europe will be a possibility. I’m really hoping for Southeast Asia, but I’m incredibly hungry for prawn mee soup, laksa, and kottu.
Where do you think you’ll be able to go?
TBH being Asian-American, I’m holding off European travel for awhile for obvious reasons (rational or not).
Though I do think Asia may be more careful than Europe in their reopening schedules.
Have a trip to Aruba planned for the last week of October. Wife, kiddo and I are getting an antibodies test this week.
Unless and until we determine that having the virus confers immunity and an inability to spread the virus, and a reliable system is established for verifying someone is post-virus, Americans aren’t going anywhere beyond our borders. Unlike Australia, the UK, Denmark, Germany and other countries on the salary-support front and Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and other countries on the public health front, the United States is failing to take the necessary steps to limit our economic and public health crises. Without that salary support, and led by the buffoon who insisted the virus was not a problem, we’re forcing people back to work without adequate testing and mitigation measures in place, setting ourselves up for more waves if contagion. Other countries will be shutting Americans (along with other foreigners) out for quite some time, and many Americans will be reluctant to take the risk of falling very ill abroad.
Thank you, Gary, for continuing to write highly relevant travel postings. My only quibble with this one is to propose that ALL politicians wait in line and not receive their vaccination until all the high at-risk groups first receive theirs. And I’ll propose that a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine won’t be available until 2022 or beyond.
Oh, I see Gary is an epidemiologist again today.
Sorry, Gary, I’ll take the National Academies’ word on seasonality over yours. If we are going to cherry-pick countries to makes a point: Singapore: hot and humid, near-equatorial – facing a virus rebound. Brazil: tropical, warm and humid in most of the country even during winter – virus hotspot. Plenty of evidence of COVID activity in warm climates.
I’m not making any guesses at when I’m travelling internationally again, but wouldn’t be surprised if I did not go outside of the U.S. for the remainder of this year. And I normally take 10-12 international trips each year.
@Frank – I’m not suggesting that politicians should get vaccines first, I’m saying many will have privileged access (“it’s good to be king”)
@Bob – Brazil’s health minister was fired for encouraging social distancing, Brazil is a disaster of their own making, I’m not suggesting that seasonality will be controlling I am clear I’m guessing that there will be some seasonality. And I note Singapore’s second wave, driven by cases brought into the country – but you’ve got to acknowledge that even so they have fewer than 7000 confirmed cases with more extensive testing than many nations.
I have a family trip to Hawaii in July which we have had planned for a year. Im cautiously hoping we get to go.
Gary, maybe for another post, but I’m interested in your take on how airlines can accommodate social distancing and, at least as important, make people feel safe while flying. Block middle seats? Remove or block entire rows? Mandatory masks? You can’t ignore the business side either. It’s probably not viable to cut your effective load factor to 40% if that’s what the distancing measures point toward.
Splitting my time between Brazil and the U.S. (Pre-Covid19) has created some painful decisions for me going forward the next months. So I find it interesting you mention my adopted second country, Gary.
I do agree that Brazil has the potential to be one of the most devastated in the world. Bolsonaro just fired his health minister who was the voice of reason with quarantines and shutting down. Yet, despite Bolsonaro, people are isolating anyway and businesses are mostly closed.
The new health minister was quoted as saying a few weeks ago that, “if given a choice between who dies we will choose the old over the young.” Not good.
Seasonal will have little bearing in this though. Despite what @Bob says the majority of the most populated areas of the country are sub-tropical or temperate. There are just not huge swings weather-wise overall and in any season you can have hot and humid one day and wearing a jacket the next, especially in S.P. While the seasonal flu in Brazil is primarily during our northern hemisphere summer, I doubt, based on recent studies, that this will be the case for Covid19 there.
What WILL be the deciding outcome in Brazil are the Favelas. If the virus begins to spread heavily into the poorer communities in Rio and S.P. the result will be catastrophic. Public hospitals (which the poorer use) are already overwhelmed. These are the people that are also most likely to still be working (ironically in the homes of the wealthy) and the close quarters in these favelas would spread the virus like a wildfire. Sao Paulo state alone is double the population of all of Taiwan. Imagine the ability of a virus in that concentration of population in such a small area. Rio is even more dangerous as the population, while smaller, is far more dense.
It’s interesting that the virus started in Brazil with the wealthy who came back from European vacations. It then began to spread to their workers in the homes who are bringing it just now to the Favelas. No one even knows how bad it is at this point in the poorer communities as there is little leadership and reporting is sporadic.
The only upside to Brazil in this is that they have placed a strong emphasis on testing. Even Bolsonaro, who just wants to open the country and led the virus run its course, has made testing a priority. But, if the virus takes off in the Favelas they won’t be able to test fast enough to save the many who will end up dying in the end.
Needless to say I have no idea when I will get to be back.
@Steve Please quit bashing Dr. Fauci! In January he said this virus should of course be taken seriously like any other but that it was no big deal! He didn’t know then what he knows now!
And quit bashing the Buffoon Nancy Pelosi! Sheesh, you sexist! She couldn’t help bashing Trump’s China travel ban–its not her fault she is wrong every darn time! It’s her politics getting in the way of National Security! (https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/13120-2).
@Gary I studied epidemiology quite extensively, and so beware what experts say; actually your opinion right now is as good as anyone else, including “experts”. Beware always of garbage in and garbage out. This virus is scary stuff, and we STILL do not know enough about it to say if we will be in the clear 2020. Who knows? NOT the experts-yet! Their graphs were wrong–even the ones that showed the incorporation of social distancing–they were way off! And hence NYC although terribly hit is not what “the experts” were saying in mid March.
I had the virus and have recovered. Like the vast majority, it was a flu-like experience and were it not for the media coverage, I never would have given it a second thought. I expect there are, or will be soon, millions like me. Despite the bitter political commentary from Steve above, it’s virtually certain recovery means immunity, and I have no intention of wearing masks everywhere or not traveling. We need people with immunity to be out there working a spending — a giant welfare program is not going to save the economy.
To Matt going to Aruba…… we cancelled . We’re you all sick and think you have antibodies? Just curious
@ Fletch. I’d plan on going. How do hotel rates today compare to when you made your reservations a year ago?
Connor wrote:
> it’s virtually certain recovery means immunity, and I have no intention
> of wearing masks everywhere or not traveling.
From the U.S. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention:
Patients with MERS-CoV are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.
@Gina. I’m a bit confused. Pelosi, in the link you provided, was criticizing Trump’s banning of travel that was an extension of the one he did three years ago that focused on Muslim dominated countries. What am I missing and how does this at all relate to the China travel ban? Huh?
I got a great deal on Qatar for RT travel for my November trip to Bangkok (QSuites on all 4 legs for around $2,500), so I, too, hope that SE Asia opens up (and Qatar, at least to transit passengers).
My trip is too short to permit a 14-day quarantine while there, but having to do self-quarantine when I return to the LA area wouldn’t be too terrible (although I obviously would hope to avoid that!).
I have a trip in SQ new A380 suites from LHR-SIN-HKG in late September. I am hopeful but, realistically believe that I will probably have to cancel.
@Gina Where did you extensively study epidemiology? Serious question
@Stuart
You are incorrect that Brazil is doing well in testing. It has one of the lowest per million tested. Source: work done tee.info
Worldometer.info
We had 2 domestic trips for this spring planned, one business, one vacation and both are cancelled. We had a business trip to Italy planned for June and a vacation to Greece in September/October. I’ve cancelled both. Had a domestic trip to FL scheduled for business in October. Not doing that one either. There is a multitude of reasons for the cancellations, one being on the north side of 70 I’m at risk although I don’t have any health conditions, or so I’m told. Looking at Australia in the spring of 2021. Since I no longer purchase coach tickets and only fly business or first class, priority on domestic airlines doesn’t mean much any longer so I’ll probably fly Qantas to Sydney. It I want to go to Europe I’ll take BA.
Señor Leff,
Have you been tested for this new coronavirus? In the absence of knowing you’ve had the virus and recovered from it this year, are you going to start to travel internationally this year as soon as you get a chance to fly internationally and play tourist abroad? Do you have chronic high blood pressure? If so, or if you don’t know, you should talk to a doctor first since high blood pressure would put you into an elevated risk group for this virus even at your age.
They say married life and/or having a child are major life events that change life and tend to make some men less likely to take as big risks with their health and well-being as before such events. Are the wife and child also acting as a restraint on your travels as you all consider whether or not it’s worth it for you or them to have you fly around this year?
My wife and I travel extensively (57 countries at last count). But L:as Vegas is one of our favorite domestic fun spots. So let’s look at this scenario:
– We manage to get tested (impossible right now since we have no symptoms, so this is fantasy)
– We go back to work in July.
– We come home and want to get tested to make sure we didn’t get infected at work.
– We go to Vegas for a week.
– We come home and want to get tested to make sure we didn’t get infected in Vegas.
– We go to the Jersey shore a few Saturdays to ride bikes and sit on the beach.
– We want to get tested again to make sure we didn’t get infected at the shore.
Seeing a pattern here? People are going to want to be tested MULTIPLE TIMES TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE NOT CARRYING THE VIRUS and infecting their loved ones. As usual, DJT doesn’t get it. What makes those clowns in DC think that one test is going to be sufficient?
PS: @Gina, maybe @Steve wrote another post I didn’t see, but you’re being pretty harsh with him considering he never even mentioned Dr. Fauci in his post. To the contrary, his well-argued post agrees with Dr. Fauci’s point of view.
@ Marriott Marty. Perhaps I was not clear and am in no way defending the Bolsonaro approach. I said they are placing an emphasis on testing. That does not mean it is there now. But they are quickly ramping up the ability and despite his idiotic approach otherwise he has come around to realizing that testing is the key going forward.
As well, because…Brazil, there are large amounts of quick result tests available in country on the public market. How accurate they are I have no idea. But one friend there just imported tens of thousands of them and is selling them to private hospitals, clinics, and anyone who wants to purchase in small bulk quantities of two dozen or more. Including private individuals.
As Canadians who live in Vancouver, we hope to be able to visit spots in our province this summer and hopefully start traveling through the rest of our country and the US again in the fall.
We do think Americans will be able to begin traveling domestically before us as we have been flattening thr curve here and have the lowest number of cases and deaths and they keep extending lockdown…
@GUWonder I do not have high blood pressure, no. And I do not know when I am going to start traveling internationally – there are several scenarios where the risk of travel will be no greater than not travel (although greater than sheltering in place, for sure).
I have a trip to London in F in August that I booked with AA miles last year. I’m cautiously optimistic that I’ll be able to go, but I may have to postpone it.
Gary, why do you think politicians would have privileged access to a vaccine? To rule the people, one must walk among them.
Gina above obviously supports Trump along with other racists nationwide. I guess we have to expect her vitriol against the Democrats until she and her Third Reich disappear
@Edison. Ok, serious answer UCSF. Next, do you want to know my preferred gender pronoun too? Gotta love the internet.
@Allen – Given the propensity for protesting in close proximity with fellow Reichers without protective masks, I would say Gina and her ilk will thin their own herd quite rapidly.
@ Gina Since you are reluctant to provide specifics as to your studies in epidemiology at UCSF, I will remain sceptical until you do. And I really don’t really care what gender pronoun you use, whether she/he/we/it
@JD, there was a significant cluster about seven weeks ago at my sons school including both children and adults that we regularly associate with (over 200 confirmed cases as of today). All three of us had symptoms that were all relatively mild with the exception of my wife who felt like she had strep throat for about five days.
We had a virtual appointment with a physician who told us it’s not worth getting tested but that he was 99% sure that we all had Covid.
I would be very surprised if our antibodies test does not come back positive.
@Peter Sachs: yep. For me, it’s not so much the destination as the lack of social distancing on a plane and going through security checks. A few weeks ago 3 TSA screeners at San Jose international Airport test positive.
@Steve: Yep. To everything you said.
Play the Netherlands in mid-August for ” Sail Amsterdam ” . He has very 5 years….or September in Amsterdam where nice weather. Being there 25 times…..put I not ride a bike!
I’m planning a trip to Italy in September that was supposed to have happened in May. If they let me in – and the US doesn’t quarantine me coming home – I’ll be there. This is nothing more than mass hysteria promoted by a media with an agenda. They keep shouting numbers, but without context. Anyway, I’ll travel if allowed. I ain’t scared of no ghost.
@Gina. These people are mean spirited to the core. To wit, Allen, Fred, and Edison do not even know what race you are either.
Talking about end of the world scenarios, every time I see Trump and Pence together, I am reminded that Pelosi in third in line to be President, and there are all these unhinged people running around calling Trump every name in the book, including Hitler. To be honest, these unhinged people do not have a better opinion of Pence.
Have you heard Pelosi speak recently? She does not always make sense. Can you imagine if she and Biden had a debate. I do not know how even CNN would be able to decode it. Pelosi as President would be scary indeed.
My friend and I have a trip planned to Ireland and the UK for the end of June; I’ve accepted that it’s not going to happen and at this point, I’m hoping flight cancellations or changes will be significant enough to merit a refund (instead of just a flight credit). My friend is (naively) convinced that we can still go.
I am curious why you think a vaccine will help everything return to normal. Did we all get vaccines after H1N1 and SARS? I don’t recall receiving anything.There’s still a significant part of the population who wouldn’t get immunized anyway, whether due to personal beliefs, health concerns or availability.
Late September/early October, my wife and I have travel plans (SFO-BOS-MAD-ATH-SFO [w/ a layover in DXB]). It’s too early to cancel, but it remains a serious possibility.
@NAUgrad05 —> SARS was not very contagious, but had a high mortality rate (8,000 people from 29 different countries and territories were infected, and at least 774 died worldwide, nearly 1-in-10). Meanwhile, H1N1 was highly contagious but not very lethal. “From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.” (Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html) That translates to a minuscule mortality rate of 0.00205%.
Meanwhile, Covid-19 is both higher contagious and has a high mortality rate, averaging 0.7% worldwide, though obviously some nations have a higher mortality rate than others. (The rate in the US is 0.47%.) Compare this to the average flu which has a 0.002% mortality rate within the US. There are high hopes pinned on developing a vaccine.
I would imagine travaholics with already-booked travel won’t be able to help themselves from going, regardless.
What’s not written about is what the world might even look like for the next year – I mean, so you go ahead & go but what are the chances your fav Asian restaurant or other places you want to see & visit will even be available or open?. Sometimes it’s that one important thing unexpectedly closed during a trip (for whatever reason) that you remember about it, rather than the rest. And now those ofds are so far greater.
Things have never been/never will be perfect in travel & some readers are more about snagging a good deal, being anywhere other than home, or not losing a dime/point/mile anyway. The results of the virus, however, might seriously minimize a person’s total travel experience & may be worth waiting until you can actually do, see, eat, & experience what you went there for in the first place.
I won’t bother responding to @Gina’s silly comments about Pelosi and Fauci, except to say that they don’t represent the sensible stances the two have taken. On the other hand, for anyone who doubts that Trump has handled this crisis incredibly irresponsibly, check this series of his and his lackeys’ statements, as compiled by the responsible conservative site, The Bulwark:
https://thebulwark.com/the-coronavirus-according-to-donald-trump/
Back to travel: Travel and much else is going to be significantly hampered until we have far more testing available. Any other Republican or Democratic president in recent memory would have followed public health experts’ advice to make this a top priority. But the Buffoon-in-Chief has bungled this and decided to blame the Chinese, WHO, the governors and anyone else he can for his lethal failures. Check out this excellent piece by former Bush speechwriter David Frum for a summary of Trump’s despicable strategy: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-trading-lives-poor-economic-growth/610264/
@Gina you have to be thick skinned to post on here. If you say anything some of these vile people don’t like they will attack you and call you every name you can think of. I may not agree with everything everyone says on here but I’ll fight to the death for their right to say it. But seriously do these folks have to be so mean spirited about everyone that disagrees with them? Calling people on bad information is one thing but you don’t have to be so hateful about it.
Hot climates: According to the Boston Globe, Florida has one-quarter the infection rate and death rate of Massachusetts. So does heat kill the virus or make it more active? Hotter South Florida has many more cases than cooler north Florida. Or most likely, temperature makes no difference at all. We have a lot to learn.
Last year I booked a trip to Antarctica for November 2020. It involves flying to Santiago and then 17 nights on a small ship on a highly regarded expedition ship. But it seems less and less realistic as time goes by and we learn more about the virus. Any thoughts about canceling now or waiting a while with the risk of the cruise company going bankrupt and losing my deposit?
@Conor~ You are fortunate if you had Covid-19 with such minor symptoms and are now recovered.
You did take a proper Covid-19 test, right? If you did not, you may have had mild seasonal influenza. At this late stage you could be tested for CV19 antibodies which may give you your answer one way or the other.
As is being reported worldwide, both tests are very difficult to access, and America being America, outrageously expensive.
Also, it is not known whether antibodies to Covid-19 are long-lasting, or will be useful against further mutations which will inevitably occur.
So, enjoy your current good health while you have it~ it may not last!
Just thinking of the saying “Never get in a sh*t fight with a pig. You just get dirty and the pig has fun”. The funny think is nobody will think they’re the pig.
Hi where do I find info re going on a Carnival Cruise Mexican Riviera as u said things much worse than letting on in Mexico…Thanks
I have travel around the world and have lived in 10 different countries and I was on my way to the Philippines when all of this broke out and I am now in Canada and have nowhere to go but I am not that desperate to go anywhere.
The real question everyone should be asking is “Will I be safe when I travel to “X” destination?”
The answer is NO! Every place you would like to travel to has some kind of travel risk. Because of Covid-19 it only brings into question the risks of traveling to a foreign destination. I don’t think you should travel if you are concerned with getting sick in a country that has healthcare facilities that are not up to your home country acceptable standard. You probably traveled to similar destinations before this crisis and that wasn’t something that the majority of us ever considered. Today there is another reality. We are scared and we don’t want to expose ourselves. Therefore, after being quarantined for weeks on end why would you want to go anywhere. You have really no clue how things are in a particular country other than your internet or cable news etc. but that doesn’t give you the complete picture.
The other issue to look at is whether a foreign country will let you in! The USA has the most recorded cases in the world and as a % of total population it is only around 0.23% and that is a low percentage. If you compare that to Spain it is 0.4% and Italy is 0.3% and France with 0.23%. Almost all countries are under 1% so the risk is minimal but there is a risk you could be exposed to that %. This is no different to what you were exposed to before the Covid-19 crisis except that the consequences where not the same such as Ebola that was very concentrated in a particular region and not widely dispersed as Covid-19.
Like Clint Eastwood said as Dirty Harry “You’ve Got To Ask Yourself One Question: ‘Do I Feel Lucky?”
Unfortunately, there are too many questions without many answers and if you listen to politicians who are only looking for their future, that should make you stop and think as we should be willing to forego almost anything to ensure we see another day in some place we desire to be!!!