The novel coronavirus has cast a shadow on the whole world since January, though not everyone realized it until late February or early March. It’s led to a deeper recession than we’ve seen in any of our lifetimes, and one of the industries hit the absolute hardest has been travel.
Over the past several weeks there have been so-called ‘green shoots’ as domestic leisure travel has started to return in the U.S. For sure, travel isn’t rebounding as quickly as many have been saying and business travel is not coming back this year in any meaningful way.
The good news, though, is that we’re not that far away from a real recovery – in travel and for the world.
- COVID-19 patient outcomes are improving. We have better treatment protocols, perhaps the virus itself is becoming less deadly – that’s something to expect by the way, because viruses that infect the most are the ones that keep their hosts alive in order to spread. Maybe it’s just that we aren’t sending COVID patients into nursing homes anymore but even as cases remain at elevated levels the number of people dying from COVID-19 has been declining substantially in the U.S.
But the number of deaths per day in the US is declining. https://t.co/IeFx0NX9pP pic.twitter.com/SKsOoMDym8
— Amihai Glazer (@AmihaiGlazer) June 18, 2020
- Patient outcomes should get much better still this fall. We no longer have just remdesivir, and laying patients on their stomachs. Anti-inflammation drugs seem to be helping with patients in advanced stages of distress. There are clinical trials in process not just for repurposed antivirals, but also antibody-based drugs developed from the blood plasma of recovered patients. Hospital stays should become shorter with more people recovering more quickly.
- We can choose to limit the spread. We haven’t gotten there yet, cases plateaued in the U.S. but haven’t declined, however we know now that targeted interventions may be nearly as effective as total lockdowns. About 10% of people spread perhaps 80% of infections. We need to limit superspreader events which are virtually all indoors over prolonged periods. And we can wear masks.
In Texas, where activity re-opened early and where just now we’re starting to see significant spread we have plenty of hospital beds though that can change quickly if spread grows exponentially (especially in Houston, and even in my home of Austin). Cities aren’t allowed to require people to wear masks (or at least cannot penalize them if they don’t) however given the situation on the ground the governor is now allowing cities to require businesses demand masks of employees and customers when in close proximity to each other, under threat of fine.
Ultimately the fights over masks in the sky simply mirror those on the ground. Mask wearing has become political, although more broadly about lack of trust in institutions and authority – we were told not to buy or wear masks by the same people telling us now to wear them. They were wrong before, and the studies are overwhelmingly suggestive now that masks can make a big difference. But the credibility of the CDC and others is largely shot. Still, airlines are communicating seriousness and in what almost looked like a put up job American Airlines even banned a conservative activist flaunting their rules and videotaping it.
- There should be a widely available vaccine next year. It could even be approved before the end of the year. This isn’t a guarantee, still speculative, but there are enough different platforms and enough different trials that we should wind up with something that is effective. The Chinese model of attenuated viruses may help only a little for a short period, but may be available first. Other approaches may take a little longer (mere months) but be more effective.
I don’t expect a ‘one and done’ vaccine that protects you for years. And it may not be completely effective either. But if 50% of people take a vaccine that’s 50% effective, that along with the population that’s had the virus recently, and those who may have some cross-immunity from other viruses or natural immunity, should get us close enough to herd immunity that the virus isn’t particularly dangerous to those outside the highest risk groups. We could have mass vaccinations in spring, then summer 2021 could be normal.
In past economic downturns, cleaning protocols have been one of the first things to go at airlines. Planes would go as long as 18 months between deep cleans. This time the opposite is true.
Years ago, in the regulated era, the government worked to keep airfares high and shut down competition to make sure airlines earned consistent profits, believing that without those profits carriers might skimp on safety. That’s really not been true in the U.S., where airlines operated safely through myriad bankruptcies. Now not only are they safe, they’re clean too. And while some of the most extreme practices (like Delta spraying disinfectant between domestic flights) probably won’t last past the end of the pandemic, new clean is likely to remain in some form at airlines and hotels.
There will be some cost in terms of travel experience. We’ll lose investment in passenger and guest amenities as businesses work to rebuild their balance sheet before competing in that arena. But overall what we’re learning now is going to make travel better in the long tun.
We see states with their numbers hitting record highs, states have activated their emergency beds, and there is no promise of vaccine early next year…plus, business travel wont be returning in 2020. Contact tracing is JUST starting on these new cases that are starting to appear, plus severe cases take a bit to develop after detection. This doesn’t even include the fact that borders are closed, those that aren’t have required tests or quarantine (huge cost to family travel) and anyone who travels today without GREAT insurance would be taking a HUGE risk…We KNOW you want travel to return, its very obvious…but lets not risk peoples lives.
For travel to return, quarantining needs to be abandoned and outright travel bans need to be revoked.
Its a shame that American’s have bought into this idea of “rugged individualism” yet certain sections of the country can not stomach the thought of being required to wear a mask or stay inside, or stand 6 feet apart, in the name of slowing down a pandemic- Texas, Florida, Maine, and Oklahoma are about become the new NorthEast, in terms of infection rates- Arizona is in its own league- domestic travel will remain flat for the year and international travel will not return into sometime in 2021. I live in Philadelphia, we had shelter in place on starting March 23rd and schools were closed March 16- everyone complained and said the city’s government was over reacting – yesterday out city of 1.58 million citizens had 68 total new cases of the virus- everyone still has on mask and we are very limited openings. We had to suffer in order to survive- all this to say that travel will not resume anytime soon and it will not be “normal” for a few years
I think your analysis is hopelessly optimistic on the vaccine angle. The best estimates I’ve read say that we’d have 100,000,000 vaccines available by the time one is approved. We have 350,000,000+ people in the US so that would mean less than 1/3 the population would have access to a vaccine when it’s ready. Setting aside the not at all insignificant issue of how easily and quickly our government can get those 100,000,000 innoculations done considering we still really really suck at testing six months after this started, that leaves 2/3 of the population wide open for exposure and transmission. You need 70% immunity to reach herd immunity status which means we won’t get there fast or soon as more vaccines have to be made.
Toss in the idea that the vaccine probably won’t be a one and done (it would be great if it was but like you I doubt it will be) we not only need to produce additional vaccines to cover the rest of the population that didn’t get the first batch but you need to produce and distribute additional vaccines to those who got the first shot and need a booster.
Normal travel is NOT just around the corner. Not as long as the virus is running around like it is and we can’t adequately defend against it; two points that are not going to change fast enough soon.
@Douglas Swalen –
1) I said vaccine in 2021, not “start of 2021” but even if we get to high risk folks first that’s progress
2) You don’t need 70% for herd immunity, those estimates simply failed to take into account heterogeneity in how people contract and spread the virus. Superspreaders tend to get it first, the people who are in situations to get it are the ones in situations to spread it. And when you add up perhaps 25% of people in parts of Manhattan with 25% protection from a vaccine plus maybe an equal amount with some immunity going in you’re well over.
3) But herd immunity isn’t a threshold thing where you reach it or you don’t, as you approach it spread slows, once you hit it spread doesn’t end it just begins to die off.
@Ed – which we won’t completely see this year but should at various points next year
Ah – epidemiologist Gary is back, I see.
@Bob – Gary who reads widely in preprint research. What that I’ve written seems wrong to you, and why?
Gary…again where did you get your PhD in infectious diseases?
Because you are making some scientific observations like:
“perhaps the virus itself is becoming less deadly”
“Patient outcomes should get much better still this fall”
“There should be a widely available vaccine next year”
Counterpoint: emerging research suggests COVID-19 antibodies fade after a few months. Weak evidence so far but in theory this is possible for large swaths of people.
Personally, I anticipate not traveling by air, not taking public transport, and not attending any large events for a solid year or more. Maybe several years.
@David you are partly quoting me out of context. Regarding a vaccine “This isn’t a guarantee, still speculative”
As for decreasing mortality that’s not speculative, the reasons to explain why have competing hypotheses, and I offer a couple of them – you note only one, hedged with ‘perhaps’, but note that it *not* my claim of what’s happening.
Regarding patient outcomes likely improving that’s a pretty strong consensus view.
Note that you do not offer any actual disagreement with what I’ve written. You only object to the fact that I wrote it.
@Jason – there’s significant variance in how long antibodies last, but those aren’t the only mechanism by which people retain immunity and resist the virus. Diminishing antibodies doesn’t mean that people are vulnerable to reinfection after a few months, rather than closer to a year, although it’s certainly possible.
However even if that’s true it doesn’t really diminish the point, it just means we don’t slow down infections quite as quickly.
@Bob @David — you don’t need a specific background to consume empirical scientific research. You do need to be sufficiently educated and sufficiently skeptical (but not in the reddit armchair way). Gary meets both those criteria as far as I can tell.
This is your opinion! You are not a doctor nor a scientist. I get that you have your opinion. But too say that the virus seems to be not that important as it was. It is still there and is not going away! It will be back in the fall stronger, I feel then before. People have become to complacent about Covid. That what scares me.
@Doll – I absolutely do not anywhere say “the virus seems to be not that important as it was” I think I have taken the virus VERY seriously since VERY early on.
Now, most of the models of what would happen turned out to be wrong for a variety of reasons, things were supposed to be worse *even with lockdown* though I very much worry about where we’re seeing increased spread right now, places like parts of my home state of Texas (Houston, Austin) for instance.
Even those of us not at significant personal risk (a) can spread it to others [though most spread seems to come from a small minority of cases] and (b) can be really quite nasty even when it doesn’t lead to a hospital stay. I do not want to get it – and I’ve written about the precautions I take to avoid it.
The good news is that there haven’t really been case clusters tied back to planes. There have been people on planes with the virus, but flights haven’t been identified as significant vectors of spread. That, and the promise of science, give me strong reason to believe we’ll get back to something much more normal next year.
What all of the ‘sky is falling’ crowd forgets is… now we have the data.
In March, everyone was saying – omg, 3-7% fatality rate. Panic!
So, that’s what we did, panicked.
And some of us disagreed, but, the herd went with Panic, so, here we are.
Now, the data has poured in, and, Coronavirus is likely about the same mortality as the flu, or a bit higher.
the CDC shows an IFR down to .26%
Stanford Medical estimates .28%
UBonn says around .34%, or less.
So, it doesn’t matter if ‘Cases spike’ (whatever that means).
As Gary mentioned, not only is it much better understood HOW to treat it.
But, we know who is vulnerable to it (old people, infirm, etc)
There is some evidence from UBonn and Stanford that for most of us, Covid-19 is LESS deadly than the Flu.
And *that* is the difference.
We panicked in March because we didn’t know. That’s annoying, but fine, we did it.
Now we *DO* know.
99.74% of people survive a bout of Covid-19 – on average.
And most people under 50, it’s 100%
That’s why no one is listening to the people still screaming ‘lock everyone inside’
We have the facts, and we’re not listening to Chicken Little anymore.
Good overall stats and treatment modalities in the article!Thank You
New deaths lag behind the new confirmed cases by several weeks. So the upward slope in Eric Topol’s plot in his post (see Gary’s reason #1, “patient outcomes are improving”, above) is still daunting. I’m a PhD who has worked in infectious disease for decades and I am still worried.
chales manning says: “Its a shame that American’s have bought into this idea of “rugged individualism” yet certain sections of the country can not stomach the thought of being required to wear a mask or stay inside, or stand 6 feet apart, in the name of slowing down a pandemic”
@chales: I live in New York and I couldn’t agree with you more. Back in March I was obediently following the advice of the New York Health authorities that I should go out, ride the subway, have dinner in Chinatown, attend the Chinese New Year celebrations with tens of thousands of my fellow New Yorkers and follow the advice of the WHO and CDC to not wear a mask.
But would you believe this country? Many rugged individuals were staying home, not riding the subway, not eating out in Chinatown and when they did go out they disobediently wore masks.
Gosh they may as well have carried around “Don’t Tread on Me” flags.
What is this country coming to?
@George – are you saying 100% of the people under 50 who have contracted Covid have survived? If you are then that is not correct.
@Tom – alas, this country doesn’t listen to PhDs or other qualified experts anymore. They listen to Instagram/Twitter, “news”/bloggers and of course “Inside Feels.”
I’m a little pessimistic on the vaccine front. I was reading an interview with someone in-the-know (can’t find link, sorry) who said that of all the vaccine candidates, only one is the tried-and-true “inactivated virus” type vaccine. All of the others are DNA, RNA, or some other type of vaccine that should work in theory, but for which there are no FDA approved versions for any other type of virus.
So much push back on any positive thoughts…
The one thing you can count on, half the people will reject any positive news. And the other half will reject any negative news. Pointless to even discuss facts in a post fact world.
I try to be in the positive group. Maybe some of you should give it a try. Being positive about good news is not the same as pretending the Covy doesn’t exist.
And please try to remember, we are still in hypothesis stage. The science is what happens over the next several years for our kids and grandkids to debate.
So Gary provides a completely rational and plausible analysis that is even scientifically based. And folks attack him?
Are you guys scared of your shadows? Or do you just not want the pandemic to end?
So strange.
@Steve – there are multiple inactivated virus candidates, it’s the predominant Chinese approach, but we know that other approaches seem to be generating robust immune responses in trials. We have to get the dosing right, prove they’re safe, and prove that not only are antibodies generated but that people do not actually become infected in larger trials. There are enough attempts that there should be a winner in my opinion – though I flag in the post it’s speculative.
There seems to be an inherent fear of air travel due to the cramped social distance and other factors. But I have not seen any reports of community spread via airplane cabins.
On the other hand, we frequently see news reports of spread among groups that have gone to certain restaurants or bars. (Hoping to see something similar after the Trump rally)
My point is maybe we are not giving enough credibility to the infectious safety of air travel.
How is normal travel just “around the corner” when airports have is in the process of implementing temperature checks and airlines are still trying to figure out how to enforce mask policies and I’m sure there will be additional safety measures if we see a second wave of infections.
I like your optimism Gary, but your title is just misleading so I think you’ve gotten a lot of confusion and backlash, not sure if you did it on purpose or not, but definitely normal travel is not “around the corner”.
Chales: And yet your magical state of PA has an infectivity rate 50% greater than Florida (6,719 vs 4,179 per million) & a death rate 400% higher! ( 504 vs. 145 deaths per million). I actually DO have a background in epidemiology: an M.S. in Biometrics.
Air travel may get back to normal in Europe and Asia, but the U.S.? Heck no, it’s only going to get worse here. See https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/19/countries-keeping-coronavirus-bay-experts-watch-us-case-numbers-with-alarm/
@ Terry
You mean “Cook the Books” Florida?
Even Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation Ministry of Health laugh at the Florida Covid numbers.
@JimInBoulder – I read the piece earlier today, didn’t really add to our understanding, it talks about the rest of the world shaking their head not understanding what policymakers are thinking here in the States .. but it talks about today, it doesn’t talk about next year
Normal travel just around the corner???? Sheer fantasy.
@DFWSteve – why don’t you think we’ll have normal travel next year?
@patrick
Yeah, really poor wording on my part – apologies.
By definition, the survival rate rounds up to 100%, but, obviously that doesn’t help us.
If you look at the CDC chart or others, they break out the IFR by age groups.
In general, no one has anything to worry about aside from those who are old/infirm.
Yes, some people die below 50, but, it’s even less than the average IFR.
—
@Tom – if you have a PhD, I’m confused why you would be worried.
Are you working on Covid-19 things now?
Do you have data that shows an IFR higher than the CDC?
Doesn’t help a lot to say ‘I’m worried’ – what data do you have?
Please share, we can all learn.
Gary, simply look at the chart in the article I linked to. Look at how the European Union’s numbers have gone down drastically. Look at how ours have plateaued at best. Look at the numbers for the mostly southern states that relaxed restrictions early. Look at how concerned people in Tulsa are about Trump’s rally. Americans, including apparently you, have decided we’ve had enough of coronavirus. The virus doesn’t care that we’ve had enough; given the lack of sacrifice on the part of Americans, especially in red states, enforced by the example shown by our top government leaders (who would not be caught dead wearing masks) I predict we are in for a huge rebound of the first wave, and an even larger second wave once schools try to open, and people start congregating in bars. Maybe you’re young enough that you’re part of the “invincible” crowd. This lifetime UA Platinum will not be getting on an airplane until there’s a vaccine and the risk is low. I can’t think of a more dangerous place to be than a hermetically sealed tube in the sky.
While your optimism is mostly welcome; your vested self interest is coloring if not flat out biasing your speculative opinioons and caveat couched suppositions. You could just as well say, 1, not sure, 2, too soon to tell, 3, we all aare hoping for the best, and 4, how else can one be reasonably expected to make a living writing a travel blog with no travel, no air travel, and not much positvie to report on from actual travellers. Unless you are encouraged by some political hack making a show out of not wearing a mask on american airlines. I think he is banned. Now maybe if some cities and local authorities try a similar stance on mask wearing perhaps we can all keep each other safe, or at least safer.
I’d like to see a vacine, sooner rather than later. but if we do see one, it will be the first one in history for a corona virus. There is so much we still just do not know. Included in this is a full understanding of what the effects of this virus are, and how it may be impacting other vulnerable population groups, for non mortality endpoints. What we think we know about deaths, is improving fast, now just 3 months of info from reliable sources. But what we think we know about non fatal effects on other sensitive (non aged populations) is slight, and I think we should be more worried about this, than if some knothead wants to wear a mask or not.
I applaud your optimism Mr. Leff, but you, like those you criticise for differing with you, didn’t really add to our understanding. Now where have we seen that rhetorical move of late?
Why don’t you think we’ll have normal travel next year? Let’s see, We are currently at no travel, and we have countries that are not allowing travel from anywhere nearby. there is no cure, and no readily available effective treatment, nor are the usual countermeasures, like distancing and wearing a mask effective enough to allow for much real opening and normalization of things we all want to return to doing; like traveling and even bloggin about travelin’
cheers,
in the meantime, do you have any food and photography blog posts you could serve up?
How about some secrets of award travel booking?
I love how politicians still pump out the fake news of “it’s just like the flu”, which @George dutifully blindly repeats.
Stop and think: how is 120,000 people dead in a few months WITH lockdowns just like the flu?
#COVIDIOTS
This is an utterly ridiculous post. Anything more than two weeks to a month out is completely unknowable.
Every single post on this blog about country X reopening for travel on day Y has been 100% incorrect. I don’t foresee this entry, full of speculations many of which uninformed and contradicted by facts, to be any different.
Waste of time, undermining the self-given “expert” monicker of the writer.
@Jake
I just compared the IFR of Covid-19 to the Flu.
They are – *very* similar.
Seriously, do your own research. You should be scared of Covid-19 if you are scared of the flu killing you as well. Otherwise, the data is in. Sure, we have more to learn, but, this is not some deadly disease spreading around the world.
It’s a flu like virus, that has killed in 7 months – less people than die normally in the world, in 3 days.
I disagree with Gary, although he makes some good points
What he misses: Mass psychology
Things are calm now due to social distancing and summer
But the extreme social distancing seen the last 2 months cannot continue
As states open up we see surges in COVID
Not a surprise.
Next Fall we will have surge #2 combined with influenza
What people don’t realize is that the overall mortality of COVID is immaterial
It is the incremental numbers of very sick people we cannot handle
As example
My system (8 hospitals with ICUs) typically runs at 80-90% capacity every winter
But COVID is ON TOP of the “normal” demand for ICU beds
So we run out of ICU beds very quickly
We also run out of vents, gloves, masks, gowns, and other supplies
We managed wave #1 easily, but Only because we shut down our entire elective medical service lines. And lost hundreds of millions of dollars.
We can’t do it again.
This fall, if we see a surge with influenza, we will quickly fill with very ill and dying patients.
If so… mass psychology will take over
Borders will be shut again.
Why? Because my state won’t want people from your state coming here taking “our” beds
And if my state is hit hard, your state won’t want my people coming there spreading it
You saw this with a Florida being upset when New Yorkers escaped to Florida 2 months ago
You see it now as Floridians are escaping back to NY
It will worsen.
Typical “fast” vaccine takes 4-5 years minimum. But we’ve never tried this hard before and will allow a faster timeline. So maybe next summer.
I put return of “normal” travel at summer 2021 if we are extremely lucky and all works well without a hiccup.
The following summer if everything doesn’t line up perfectly
FWIW I am a doctor and leader of a large multi specialty group
You fail to note how exceptionally bad the US is doing in its “war on the coronavirus”, and how therefore Americans will continue to be shunned. Over the last 7 days, the US lost 20.0 people per 100k per day to COVID-19; that’s 137 times as many as Japan and 2.4 as many as Italy, the initial epicenter of the infection in the West. Yes, Italy is doing far, far better than the US!
Only Sweden at 33 is doing worse, and it’s being shunned by all, starting from its neighbors; the UK is roughly doing the same but its rate of death is going down twice as fast as the US at 25% per week vs. 13%
The US response to COVID-19 has been horrifying and will be one of the last countries to return to “normal” travel. And because the state of the health crisis determines the state of the economy, it will be painful. Witness Apple and others shutting down stores again in the US.
@ George
As you sure you aren’t confusing case fatality rate (CFR) with infection fatality rate (IFR) when you rant about March panic?
Do you understand the limitations of IFR estimates?
That such estimates vary widely?
Are you aware that you are a quoting median score that may or may not apply according to specific circumstances / demographics / health care opportunity?
In any case…if you really do want to compare to the flu…look at the real “data” of the actual number of COVID-19 deaths in the USA and you will see that these are already several times greater than a typical flu season and you have a long way to go before we know how many actual deaths from COVID-19.
The coronavirus recorded deaths in the USA already blow those from flu out of the water and the virus is just getting started in the USA, assuming the apparent prevailing reluctance to accept lockdown control and thorough inbound quarantine mitigations!
Have you considered that the impact of the illness is not just about death rate? For example, the length of time a symptomatic person has the disease, the longer term health impacts on those who survive? The impact on health care services?
Clinging onto a presumed IFR with apparently little knowledge or understanding is just plain folly: the CFRs of some countries sit in the 10-15% bracket. The USA is trending towards 150,0000 – 200,000 plus deaths of its own.
You run the danger of being trapped into a narrative of justification after the event having experienced the grossest incompetence (in number of ways) in controlling the disease in the USA (and other countries such as the UK) despite successful mitigations being known.
Incidentally, you may or may not be aware that you can access an extensive medical / scientific literature using the “PubMed” search engine to your heart’s content. Enjoy and be well.
I can well appreciate the optimistic and mildly epistemological slant of this article. Their is a lot of potentially good analysis to be sure. One cold and hard fact undermines the impact of this “great” news. The mainstream media has gone all out in their efforts to scare everyone into believing this is the new black plague of the Middle Ages for whatever reason or agenda. No one can underestimate the long lasting effect of the 7 day/24 hr constant impact that the media has on the vast majority of the citizenry. Does anyone truly believe that average folks who are trying to keep body and soul together are going to come home at the end of a workday and do an analysis of the latest CDC recommendations and search the innumerable travel websites to see if it is truly safe to travel to, in my case, Hawaii? I don’t think so. The slightest uptick in covid-19 in a tourist destination will only serve to call a halt to tourist traffic. This effect will feed on itself and will take a long time to minimize – if ever. What a shame.
It’s amazing to me how little people do research. How they listen to only one narrative. They can’t wrap their minds around investigating other sources of information which is suppressed by mainstream media and big pharma. So many people are sleeping. They just follow their authoritative “daddies” and that’s it. For that matter, they don’t even know where to begin looking. So sad.
First off…..HCQ used early in treatment (with Zinc and Z-Pak) is an inexpensive yet highly effective treatment. Problem was vaccine companies don’t make any money with it so they authorized studies that were extremely skewed in their favor, overdosing by multiple amounts which created flawed tests. FACT (side note – good friend of mine (70+ old) admitted to NYC hospital in March. Three days above treatment and he was out and back to normal.)
Second – Genetic material of Covid will be found in many as testing (flawed) increases. Doesn’t mean you are infected. Doesn’t mean you are sick or contagious. People coming out of their cocoon past few months after eating poorly, no exercise, no Vit D, stressed out, etc…with weak immune system… yeah they might get a cold(vid).
Third – Generally speaking, most of the deaths were to the old or pre-existing conditions. Just like the flu. Everything labeled Covid. We killed our elders in NY, we killed them in PA and all around the US. Left them to die in loneliness, with no supplements, quality food or care. Ventilators were death machines.
Forth – Kids under 19 generally and especially under 12 rarely are infected. Almost 0.00%.
Fifth – Vaccine will not work. It will kill many, especially the RNA vaccine. It will be untested, contain poisons and will be ineffective. It is only a scare tactic to force vaccinate everyone, not so much from Covid but with all the other vaccines that don’t work. Pharma has removed natural immunity since 1960’s and replaced it with fake herd immunity. Four billion paid out by the Vaccine Injury Court and that’s only for the families of children killed or left like zombies! Vaccine companies are not liable after Reagan signed off on that law in 1986.
I’ll leave you with one link. Perhaps one of you will be interested in looking at other points of view..
Gary, you are horribly misinformed.
I’m a doctor in Australia, and let me tell you this:
1. Patient outcomes are not improving. It’s just that where there is widespread virus the most vulnerable are already dead.
2. Treatment has barely improved at all. We have NOTHING. Again, it’s just that the most vulnerable are already dead in places like NYC and London.
3. Talk of 10% of people spreading 80% of infection is just America-centric nonsense, because you have no contact tracing in the USA and have no idea where cases come from.
Here in Australia every case gets aggressively traced. And guess what. Superspreaders are irrelevant: this virus is spread by TRAVEL.
It’s exactly like all similar viruses. Treatment and vaccines may never happen – remember SARS and MERS and Ebola?
You control and defeat this virus by stopping travel and closing borders, and by locking down with closed borders until all your cases die out.
There is ZERO treatment for this virus, NO vaccine in sight, and opening up is simply economic suicide.
And opening up without having contained the virus first is just denial combined with selfishness. It’s the coward’s way out – pretend that the problem isn’t there.
I’d rather be in New Zealand‘s economic and lifestyle situation than the USA’s – and it is BECAUSE they closed down totally for 6 weeks to defeat the virus. They won. The USA is losing before our very eyes, and it’s hard for those of us overseas who love America to watch as the country continues to make every possible wrong choice.
@ David F – a very precise explanation and I agree with everything you say .
Be very wary of an early vaccine.
No safe, effective vaccine has ever been developed in less than 4 years. Rushed vaccines are notoriously risky in terms of both safety and effectiveness.
What SHOULD happen is this:
1. All air travel and cross-border travel suspended.
2. Like in Australia, returning travellers from overseas placed in policed hotel quarantine for 2 weeks, for which they pay $2000.
3. Strict local lockdowns including stopping intra-state travel, until community transmission ends, like in Australia and New Zealand.
4. States then open up on a regional basis, conditional upon fewer than 1 new case per million population per day. Any higher rate requires renewed lockdown for at least 28 more days.
5. Like in New Zealand, once community transmission is terminated, domestic travel can resume.
6. Do not be tempted to roll out a vaccine prior to its widespread authorisation and roll-out in other advanced countries. We have already seen the US and Brazil authorise the comical use of malaria medication which was never going to work. It would be disastrous to rely upon a similarly hopeless vaccine.
If you want the Wild West with no masks, large close gatherings and shoulder to shoulder bars and pools, forget back to normal travel this year.
@DavidF – It’s nonsense to say that it’s just that the most vulnerable have already died, because patient outcomes are improving even in places where the virus is just now starting to spread. Death rates among ‘the most vulnerable’ are much lower for instance in my state of Texas. I’m not just talking about death rates declining in New York, but in places where the virus is mostly new.
Treatment is better than it was at the start, we know a lot more, we don’t just go straight to ventilators. There’s an anti-viral that helps but is in limited supply. Release rates from hospitals have gone up. Hospitals also have more PPE by the way, and managing hospital capacity better through distancing measures that spread out infections improves patient outcomes too – the biggest problem has been where hospitals become overwhelmed.
The data on a small percentage of patients causing most of the infections isn’t predominantly from U.S. contact tracing, it’s a consistent result from China, South Korea, Italy, and Germany as well.
@ Gary Leff
Are you denying that a cohort has died in those locations where the coronavirus has run rampant? Are you suggesting that the data don’t need to be interpreted for such? UK nursing homes anyone?!
Goodness forbid you caught the virus yourself – just what / which treatments are you going to put your trust in? And at what point of your infection cycle? Do you really believe that your medical outcome would be significantly better now than previously?
Let’s say you were a person prone to a Cytokine Storm Syndrome. Would you even know? What are you going to tell your doctors to do? Maybe they are up to date with some initial research on a number of markers for your susceptibility for CSS – so, then what?
Let’s say you have hypertension. Are you going keep taking those ACE Inhibitors or not? If you know the answer to that do tell us and the world medical community.
Are you feeling more confident because you had a BCG vaccination as a kid? Are you demanding one now? If you know the answer to that do tell us and the world medical community.
What are you going to tell your medics to do about any blood clotting issues? Prey tell. If you know the answer to that do tell us and the world medical community.
And if the worst befalls and the medics determine you need to be on a ventilator, are you going to refuse because of the 50% mortality statistic?
And what about your smoking habits. If you don’t smoke have you started? Just in case the nicotine stymies initial viral infection. Or have you already stopped smoking knowing that if the virus makes it to your lungs you are TOAST?
Have you moved from a high air pollution location to a new one (lower PM2.5) – or have you decided to discount that risk factor? After all it’s not proven, right?
Are you seeking out warmed, humid, environments to inhabit? Or have you decided that’s not on your radar? Again, not proven, right?
Would you blindly sign up to an anti malarial or anti-inflammatory drug study – or want to know the risks up front? Right, you’d have enough data to make that call?!
In the meantime, have you been on a progressive exercise program to drop any excess weight and boost your immune system – just in case? Just because that’s the one thing absolutely in your control – or are you as apparently overweight as your pix suggest (don’t take that personally, since I am too)?
And, the big question, if you found yourself back in Australia and sick with COVID-19 because you couldn’t help resist your travel obsession, and DavidF, the experienced medic of reason posting herein, turned out to be the doctor assigned to you, would you be telling him that you know best, or grateful for his expertise, experience and professionalism and your best shot of survival?!
Of course that wouldn’t happen because you would have been in compulsory quarantine on arrival.
Because Australia has the virus thankfully under control, and that in the MOST PART by RESTRICTING TRAVEL!!! Almost all of our daily cases nationwide are from quarantined inward travel. The few cases that aren’t are subject to aggressive contact tracing.
IT WORKS!!!
Stop dreaming. Stop deluding yourself.
Meanwhile, USA cases back on the rise in numerous states – death statistics inexorably stacking up…an excusable and monumental failure.
Gary,
Can you point to your reference showing death rates declining
We are not seeing this
What we are seeing is that the stats look better because of testing changes
Early on, as example, my system only tested suspicious people in the ICU.
Half of them died
So death rate was 25 deaths/50 positive tests or 50%
Today: of those that hit the ICU half are still dying
However my system now tests all symptomatic people, all pre-ops and hospital admissions, and as all people who were at recent protests
We now have a few hundred positive tests per day, but luckily only 20 deaths per day due to social distancing which allowed our COVID Rates to drop
So it looks like death rate is going down. But it’s really a sample bias
We are getting better at treating this. Minimally
The new antivirals and steroids show promise in moderately ill people. Not so much for severely ill people.
Todd above is beyond misinformed
Doctors would do anything to find a treatment that works, since we are the ones most exposed to this deadly disease
The drug companies would love it too
Imagine if there was a quick and easy treatment for COVID
It would make TRILLIONS of dollars around the world.
With no research and development
We would love if hydroxychloriquine and azithromycin worked.
But they don’t
And they increase cardiac arrhythmia and sudden death.
So they had to be abandoned.
The bell weather will be this Fall
If ICUs become over run again, you will see a lock down on travel
I think I can, I think I can……
@Gary you are unfortunately completely wrong about your home state of Texas.
Australia and New Zealand have a combined population of 30 million, are more reliant upon air travel than Texas, and have had a combined total of 124 deaths even though the virus arrived here before it arrived in Texas.
Texas has a similar but smaller population – 29 million – is less reliant upon aviation, does not have direct flights from Wuhan like we did and got the virus later. But you have had 2105 deaths.
In other words, 94% of the deaths in Texas were unnecessary and preventable.
And Texans are 17 times more likely to be killed by Coronavirus than Australians or New Zealander.
This is not a line ball decision. Your failure to shut down international travel has made your outcomes 17 times worse than ours. And yet you talk about increasing travel! It’s staggering.
@DavidF – you’ve completely changed your argument and now you’re off-point. You said that lower death rates now are because the vulnerable had already died. I said that in much of the U.S., experiencing lower death rates than earlier outbreaks, the experience with significant spread of the virus is new. The vulnerable largely hadn’t died yet.
Your claim that “Your failure to shut down international travel has made your outcomes 17 times worse than ours” is not quite right, here’s why our travel bans failed https://viewfromthewing.com/why-the-china-travel-ban-failed-and-the-virus-spread/ basically the Europe ban came too late (fair!) but the China ban was early enough… it just was poorly implemented, it wasn’t the lack of a ban it was that our bureaucracy failed us in implementing one. A travel ban at this point does nothing whatsoever for the U.S. https://viewfromthewing.com/its-time-to-lift-travel-restrictions-on-china-and-europe/
@Gary,
Respectfully, I don’t defer to anyone else on the issue of travel bans.
It’s NEVER too late. All viruses will eventually fizzle out – look at London and NY/NJ. The problem is, as long as you have international travel you import and export the virus and cause new deaths. It could be your loved one killed by a person who imported the virus from London tomorrow.
I suggest that you follow the NZ media closely. Their news stories about their cases illustrate it perfectly: after wiping out the virus they have (safely, thanks to policed hotel quarantine) this week imported two cases each from the UK and India as well as one from Pakistan. They literally know precisely where every potential new case is before the person is even tested.
The US has yet to reverse any of its major blunders.
1. Inadequate testing (per capita).
2. Inadequate contact tracing.
3. Inadequate border and flight closures.
4. Failure to introduce mandatory policed quarantine for returning travelers.
These are just updated versions of the centuries old ways of controlling pandemics. And in the absence of a vaccine or any proper treatment, they are more important than ever.
It’s still not too late for Failed States in Coronavirus terms to wake up and reverse their mistakes.
Our dear friends the Americans taught us how to manage this 100 years ago with Spanish Flu. And what your grandparents taught our grandparents still works 100 years later. We just wish that you’d follow your own grandparents’ wisdom rather than starting to declare victory and open up before there is either a treatment or a vaccine.
As I had mentioned previously, everyday people who want to travel are never going to do the constant examination of ongoing research that has been presented in this article. Just look at the push back in comments that those of us who do follow travel websites have demonstrated.
The effect of media soundbites are what reach the ordinary Joe when it comes to travel and covid. No mistake about that. Additionally there is no consensus as to what approach will be most effective, both in short and long term among the so-called experts. What is the layperson to believe when planning future travel. It’s truly a mess and a damn shame.
Hi Gary
As a doctor, i am not sure that i agree with your comments and views on this post which unfortunately create a false picture and false sense of hope concerning the future of travel. Just because the death rates associated with COVID-19 have been declining does not mean anything. At the rate our country is prematurely opening up, and given that many people are not taking COVID-19 seriously by refusing to wear masks in public (I see many of them walking around including all those people on TV during the recent protests), this trend may sadly not continue. Mask wearing in public which is a strong medical recommendation has become very politicized. Never in my 35 years of practice have I seen medicine placed in a position of being subservient to politics. Total stupidity, ignorance and idiocy if you ask me. We need to wait till the fall to decide what happens to travel. Based on what the infectious diseases experts are telling us, there is a high likelihood that we will end up up with a surge in COVID-19 cases and our hospital ICUs are very likely to become flooded with COVID-19 patients all over again. In fact, this is already happening in some states and the governors of those respective states are being foolish by not doing anything about it. As far as returning to “normal” travel is concerned, I am not so sure about that. It all depends on what you mean by “normal”. I do not think that we will ever return to travel the way it used to be. Vaccines are all iffy at this stage. It takes time to develop a vaccine and I am not sure that we will have one by the end of the year as some people are saying. To that I say show me the money. The crux of our problem I believe is our society. Too many people refusing to go along with the very wise medical recommendations concerning masks in public and social distancing. Look at New Zealand. They have no more reported COVID-19 cases. If our citizens in the US acted like those in New Zealand and not rebelled against the medical recommendations (due to bogus politics) we too would have been able to stamp out COVID-19 in our country. So, given all the above, I am sorry to say that “normal” travel is far away and there is a likelihood that it may never happen. Respectfully.
@Shaul M. Saddick – you are absolutely right that trends could reverse themselves, but I think I offer reasons to believe at least that case fatality rates will improve further. I absolutely agree with you on the benefit of mask wearing and note its importance in this post. Note that I do not suggest we’ll have a vaccine *by the end of the year* but I do think there’s a good chance, albeit still speculative, that we’ll have one in 2021. And we don’t need the vaccine to be 100% effective to really limit spread.
Sorry, Gary, but my authority on COVID-19 is Dr Fauci, not you.
Sorry, but my authority on COVID-19 is Dr Fauci, not you.
JRMW says:
We would love if hydroxychloriquine and azithromycin worked.
But they don’t.
Where did you read they don’t work, JRMW? Please don’t quote that recent study from Lancet/NEJM that was retracted as it was from a science fiction author and an adult content model. It does work but doesn’t make any money for vaccine companies so FDA removed it under pressure of said companies. Take a look at the video I posted containing facts and perhaps you will have a change of opinion.
Generally speaking, people are caught up in the narrative from their authority figures. Until they break away and start questioning the narrative that is all they will believe.
Charlie says his authority is Dr Fauci. Sorry Charlie but you have no idea who this fellow is. Have you investigated his background?? Have you done one ounce of research of someone you follow? You can start here. The rest is up to you. https://childrenshealthdefense.org/news/fauci-steering-the-pandemic-narrative-toward-vaccine-solutions-is-nothing-new/
I’m generalizing here but doctors in the US, especially in the ER and ICU, don’t practice medicine anymore. They practice protocols. Meaning, they are not allowed to use their training to observe what is going on with a patient. They dare not speak out against the protocols for fear of demotion or being fired. So many knew ventilators were not the way to go. Yet, they ended up killing many and injuring others for the rest of their lives.
If this was such a deadly virus there should be a lot more people dead. Yet for months now I’ve seen people all over the US, in my home area and around the world without masks on…talking face to face with people. Young, old, whatever they are still alive today. I’m not saying it is not dangerous. I’ve had friends debilitated for weeks with it. But they recovered fine. One with Vit D and C, the other in the hospital but out in three days after HCQ/Z-Pak/Zinc.
Was at a few outdoor markets today. Almost 90 and humid. People wearing masks but others not. You have to be a total follower to believe that mask will do good vs the harm it will do, especially to the older population. Breathing out their carbon dioxide and whatever else coming out of from their bodies and whatever attaching to it from others. Half of them not putting it on properly after which taking it off, rubbing their hands all over it and touch all kind of things that other people touch. Yeah…that’s a good idea!
I’m sure there will be a number of volunteers ready to stick out their arms for some injectable poison. Go right ahead. Get some.
(Gary – thanks for doing excellent work over the years for all things travel.
Lastly…..
The four companies that produce all 72 vaccines mandated for American children (forced vaccines coming very soon to an adult near you)….every one of them is a convicted felon. Since 2009, those four companies collectively have paid $35 billion in criminal penalties and damages and fines for:
• defrauding regulators,
• falsifying science,
• bribing doctors and POLITICIANS,
• lying to the public, and
• for killing lots and lots of people.
Take Vioxx alone. Merck knew that it would cause heart attack, but sold it as a headache pill. They didn’t tell the people, “You won’t have a headache, but you might have a heart attack.” Of course, if they told them that, not too many people would have bought it. So, they decided to keep it a secret and they killed 120,000 people minimum, probably closer to 500,000 people.
What kind of cognitive dissonance does it require to understand that this company is lying and cheating and killing with every other medical product and pharmaceutical product that it makes, but it has found Jesus when it comes to vaccines, and it’s not going to lie about that?”
— Robert F. Kennedy, Jr, Director of Children’s Health Defense, at the New York Rally & Lobbying Day for Vaccine Injury/Vaccine Rights (5/14/19)
Over $4 billion has been paid out to families for injuries due to vaccines. These monies are paid by you the consumer from a $0.75 tax assessed on every vaccine sold in the US. So, not only do these 4 companies have legal immunity, they don’t have to pay out for injuries. When are you going to start fighting back?
One more thing…..the CDC has never run the numbers in their VAERS database of the vaccinated vs unvaccinated children. If vaccines were so effective don’t you think they would do that study? They have been petitioned over and over but refuse. They can crunch that out in 72 hours as they have all the history. They refuse. Yet, some recent studies by independent groups all over the world show unvaccinated children are much healthier. Think about that! Because mandatory vaccines are coming for the adults sooner than you think! And…that’s the ultimate purpose of all this. To get the adults. Because kids only bring billions to the vax industry. Adults will bring the trillions.
Shaul M. Saddick — I know you think your opinion matters more because you are a doctor, but you are wrong. The medical community, and our science community in general, has completely failed us during this COVID crisis. The science has been horrific, and mostly wrong. Honestly, the only people who have been helpful are the ones who can run data, and you don’t need to be a scientist to do that. Hopefully, some bright scientists come up with a vaccine soon and save your profession from permanent credibility damage.
As far as travel rebounding, we’ve seen some progress, but because the science is so bad, we really don’t know what will happen next. Right now we have a completely unexplained situation where the hardest hit Northern states are steadily and consistently getting rid of the virus, but the Southern states seem to be get slammed with new cases. Oddly, however, the new cases are mostly young and the death count is actually trending lower in these states. It’s very strange and, as has been the case, the scientists have no idea why. Hopefully, the death counts continue to decline and travel continues to rebound, but uncertainty is not good for travel.
I find your comments in response to my post to be amusing. Putting down the medical profession and community when that very community has done nothing but try and protect and save the lives of non-infected individuals and COVID19 patients during this pandemic is being ungrateful and disrespectful. In case you have not already heard, there are many healthcare professionals who got infected with SARS-CoV-2 while attending to COVID19 patients. Some have died in the process. Maybe you would much prefer to have your so called non-medically trained data crunching personnel / data analysts care for the dying COVID19 patients in the overwhelmed emergency rooms and ICUs across the country? Would you want these non-medical data analysts working on you or your relatives if you contracted COVID19? Your comments tell me that you know very little about this very destructive and lethal virus. I do not blame you for that as there are many who have still not comprehended the severity and the lethality of SARS-CoV-2.. I highly recommend that you spend some time learning about this virus and how it is transmitted. You may also want to take some time learning about how it affects previously healthy children and adults. I am talking about strokes, thrombosis, embolism, unexplained clotting of blood etc etc. You may also want to learn about the long term medical effects of contracting COVID19, These effects are shown to cause long term disability and impairment in some patients. A lot of so called recovered COVID19 patients are not fully recovering. As a member of the medical community there is nothing that we need to be ashamed of which is what you are implying. As a doctor I stand proudly by my fellow physicians and scientists who have been nothing but truthful, altruistic, and forthcoming about this pandemic from day one continuing , very much in contrast to what some of our ignorant politicians have been doing. The models used to predict deaths and infection rates have had their faults and no one is denying that. You need to know that disease transmission models are not perfect and are influenced by the assumptions and rules that are programmed into them. To blame and ridicule the entire medical profession over this is being naive about how these models operate. SARS-CoV-2 is a relatively new virus and there was little known about it and its behavior initially. We are learning more and more about it each day. No matter how faulty a model, I would rather enter the virus war zone with some type of model (plan) as opposed to no model at all. You are of the opinion that travel is returning to normal soon. I do not see how. With people running around unmasked and failing/refusing to maintain social distancing, we will most definitely be seeing an increase in the number of infections and COVID19 related deaths in the near future. You want to tell me that air travel is somehow going to be spared and none of these infected people are going to get on board a flight and spread this virus? I do not see how this is going to happen. You can choose to live in denial. That is your option.
http://www.askdrbuttar.com/facemask/
Oh my, “how it affects previously healthy children and adults. I am talking about strokes, thrombosis, embolism, unexplained clotting of blood etc”. If you are stating that CV is responsible for this than you don’t understand the immune system.
By the way, SIDS rate is DOWN since March as babies don’t visit their doctors for their regular poison injections. Aren’t they lucky!
Bring back the old country doctors who used their training in conjunction with observation and feel.
Look at the many reports of a correlation between CV deaths worldwide with low vitamin D levels (under 40). Many extremely low.
Medical errors are the third-leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer. Look it up!
@Todd
As an anti-vaxxer, I’m sure you won’t care
But you asked for my source about hydroxychloroquine so here it is
The FDA
If note, my institution is using hydroxychloriquine and azithromycin
They did nothing and led to acute cardiac events
We keep having to stop the meds due to arrhythmias
We are also using remsdesivir and steroids
https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or
Again:
Doctors and nurses are getting Covid and dying
We get $0 from big pharmaceutical companies
Why do we give a flying f@k about what pharma wants?
Why do we give a crap about what Trump or Biden want?
Answer: we don’t
I’m not dying so that Pfizer makes trillions and I’m certainly not gonna die to “defeat Trump”
We would use these meds if they worked
The US stockpiled millions of doses of hydroxychloriquine
Useless unless you have malaria or gout
@JRMW
On the contrary….I do care but I open my eyes to other possibilities. Not just one narrative. You have got to be joking abut the FDA. Completely corrupt. I won’t even start with that. Did you even watch the video I provided that looks at the facts, the studies, the success of others using HCQ?? Love to hear your comments afterwards.
You want to know why your doctors and nurses are getting sick?? Go pull their Vitamin D records. I would guarantee most of them are below 40. More likely in their 20’s. They are inside all day, exhausted, overworked and surrounded by all kinds of contaminants. Their Vit C levels are low and they don’t take any balanced Zinc. Add that up, throw in a horrible diet with extreme stress….yeah… first responders first to go.
Doctors make horrible patients. I had to nurse a good doctor friend of mine to recovery from CV back in April. He spent 10 days in bad shape at home before I found out. Asked him about his Vit D level, which he took in January was 27! I immediately sent him D3/K2, 22mg Lipo Vit C per lb body weight (4 grams+ daily), balanced Zinc with Copper and in a few days he is better. Now 100% to normal and still doing the above with a cut in the C and getting out in the sun for D. (not medical advice)
I’m not going to get into discussion about Pharma and their influence in hospitals. Not relevant here other to say it is all about business. Pharma wants people sick or they don’t make money. It’s a horrible thing for me to say but I”m not the first. It is all about money.
As a doctor you should question why the Pharma/vaccine industry can’t be held liable. Why they don’t do double blind saline placebo tests. Every other drug is fully tested with placebos. Except vaccines. Why??
Happy Fathers Day to all the dads. Make a pledge to take care of your immune system…today. Go out in the sun for 20 minutes a day without sunscreen, except between noon to 3. Go boost your T Cells and forget about antibodies. Eat better and get some exercise. Turn off the TV! And, watch the below video and other non-mainstream reports to balance your thinking.
https://youtu.be/Ft4bVtcQcGM
Your article is daring and full of wishful promises!
Every case is a case and we are still recognising different terrains.
And to say that we’ll have a vaccine later this year or maybe next year is absolute nonsense ! Nobody knows! Just remember that we have been searching one for HIV/Aids for the past fourty years. Still not in sight!
In response to my colleague in Australia David F I could not agree with you more We have it all wrong in the US. We have managed to make many mistakes in handling SARS-CoV2 and still have not learned from our mistakes Reopening the country without following the necessary steps to reduce chances of spread is foolish Hardly any contact tracing aggravates matters even more
I respect how the matter was handled in Oz and NZ I have many relatives in Oz some who are doctors. We have frequently chatted about this topic. There is no question that the Australians and New Zealanders have done this right
In response to Todd. Yes I know my immunology quite well like the back of my hand. Do you? You can sit here and quote Dr R Buttar to me till you turn blue in the face. Sorry not impressed. His views are esoteric and not espoused by the scientists in main stream medicine. Your statements regarding vitamin E are nit supported by the data. Yes vitamins can be helpful but are not a cure for COvID Lots of anecdotal data. Not good enough
Hydroxychloroquine
does not work. Major side effects I know a couple of people who are taking it as they are sold on it. Not me But if you believe in it you are free to use it Just be mindful that causes cardiac arrhythmia
You say something about that if this virus was truly lethal more people would have died. Really? Do you consider over 466k deaths worldwide not a big deal ?
As far as face masks are concerned you are free to wear one or not. It’s your life. But please be respectful when around the rest of us or other people as exposing us to potential infection would be unethical and selfish. I have no problem with people not wearing masks as long as they are respectful and mindful when around others. It’s not fair that you would expose others to danger by not wearing a mask when in public
Below is a link to an article which recently appeared in JAMA Internal Medicine addressing the efficacy of face masks, eye covering and social distancing. In COVID
Happy Father’s Day to all. Wishing everyone good health and happiness. Thank you
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
Sorry – the link I posted above to the article on face masks, social distancing and face shields appears in The Lancet and not JAMA Internal Medicine. Thank you. Be well.
The back and forth on this topic has turned into a round table discussion of who’s data summaries carry more weight than anyone else. The discord that has surfaced because of the increasing frustration we all feel and all share is there for all to see. This resolves nothing nor should it be able to. It amounts to no more than blowing off steam – that can be a good thing.
We can only hope that the powers in charge come to adopt the truism from the great economist from the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Thomas Sowell, when he said, ” In all human efforts their are no solutions – only trade offs”. Simple but so true.
Luis – I completely disagree with you which is exactly one of the problems. Meaning, there is no open, live national TV debate with doctors, scientist, vaccine makers, fda, cdc, who, etc.. presenting both points of view. Which would allow for the public to hear facts that they never heard before, LIVE and unedited. Independent fact checkers to look over submitted evidence. Would be wonderful but don’t ever expect this will happen until, sorry to say, a lot more people rise up and ask questions as they lose a love one.
The closest thing we have to the above is when Dr. Stanley Plotkin, often considered the father of vaccines, was grilled on the witness stand for hours in 2018. The outcome wasn’t so good for him.
@ Shaul
So in your world do you believe antibodies are useful for Covid19? Or perhaps it is T cells? I never mentioned Vit E. Do you even know your vitamins? E is useless for CV. D3/K2 on the other hand is extremely important and necessary to help stimulation of T cells. By the way, there are a lot of medical papers on D supporting its use for CV. You never answered if you watched the video about HCQ that I posted which submits facts completely against the recent studies that denounced it. You can’t dispute that as the facts are clear. I and many other scientist and doctors do not believe 466K deaths were directly caused by CV. Which all circles back to Luis and his statement.
If anyone who may be reading these posts have any connections to mainstream media and can make a debate happen, with one phone call I will have enough professionals to go against anyone from Shaul’s main stream medicine side.
Lastly, Dr Rodrigues Pereira is absolutely correct. There will be no vaccine for the masses this year and perhaps never. They will not work for CV just like they don’t work for the common cold. not that I am saying this is like a cold. On the contrary, it is far worse due to its origin. But that is a different story. Dr. Paul Offit and Dr. Peter Hotez, (often on mainstream media) who we have come up against in the past had something very interesting and good to say recently. Which was, basically there will be no licensed vaccine until at best 2021 3rd quarter. Any release before that is dangerous. The only way it gets out soon is if Trump orders it to boost his election. That will be very very sad if first responders sacrifice themselves to try it.
Someone named Angela posted this on social media….
Do you ever just look back at the last 4 months and scratch your head? Like, how in the f*k did they convince the world to social distance, mask up, have no funerals, forcibly homeschool (while still taxing us for public education), stay in our homes, forfeit incomes and personal businesses, snitch on our friends and neighbors, hug grandparents thru plastic, race bait us, & thoroughly have us on the verge of civil war with each other…
All to turn around and tell us that most of that is nixed and completely negated if we want to protest, riot, and loot the businesses already on the brink of bankruptcy, destroy our cities, defund our police, set everything on fire, and all the while, we’re allegedly at tremendous risk of a deadly virus that can be diagnosed without official testing- and even tho it’s super “dangerous” things that keep us healthy (health food/supplement shops, gyms/health facilities, chiropractic centers, many health services/elective medicine, and naturopathic health centers, outdoor activities and parks) are taken away, but cigarette/alcohol, and fast food were deemed “essential”…
WTF world are we living in, and how come so many are complying?
Todd:
I meant Vitamin D not E. It was a typo. I could not find the video you reference in your reply to me. I will be happy to look at it if i can find it. Maybe you can re-post the video? I am aware of and familiar with the studies done on Vitamin D and death rates in COVID. Take care.
Shaul –
Here is the video about HCQ scandal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBI_pobBfck
Here is the video on T cells.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ft4bVtcQcGM&t=251s
This one on Vit. D, which dives into racial disparities with COVID-19 & Vitamin D. Lots of statistics here. This video takes a more balanced view by throwing in a few studies saying too much D could be a problem. Which is a bit ridiculous as D in high doses has been used for many years without trouble. Interesting to read the hundreds of comments at the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDt6ca2WF3Y
My basic point overall is for doctors to stay open to other narratives coming from your own peers. Naturally you will have quacks on both sides but discounting those, if there are two narratives coming from both points of view doesn’t logic demand that a debate should take place? Isn’t it totally unfair for mainstream to blast just one side? People don’t research. They believe in their authoritative figure and that’s it. They don’t question. History has shown that has not been the best road to take. Question everything when it comes to life/death.
Todd
Todd
Thank you for posting the three videos you mentioned in your earlier post. I went ahead and downloaded them. Will review them later on tonight and tomorrow when I have some time.
I concur with you. We all need to be open to other narratives and alternate views of addressing COVID-19 and all diseases versus digging in and sticking to one point of view. You have a good point. I have been reviewing some of the literature on Vitamin D and COVID since your post and I have to admit that some of the findings are impressive. I had a cousin who was a practicing nephrologist for many years. He was really big on using vitamins and other supplements in treatment of certain kidney disorders. I remember our phone conversations about vitamins and other supplements in relation to immunity. This was many years ago. I can honestly say that he was one of the very early pioneers in this area. I can recall some of his colleagues downplaying the whole idea of using supplements in treatment of disease. Unfortunately, he passed away five years ago and took all that knowledge and experience with him. Anyway, thank you for your input. I will most certainly review everything that you have placed on this post. Take care. Be well. Sincerely, Shaul
Shaul –
Appreciate you taking the time to watch the videos. Interested in hearing your thoughts, even if you completely disagree. It opens up discussion.
Best,
Todd
I stand by my former comments and I have no further/ongoing interest to review literature concerning vitamin supplements, vaccines, trials of this and that possible treatment. It would amount to nothing more than an intellectual exercise for me in the forum becoming “gotcha” commentary. I leave the heavy lifting to the “experts”.
I am neither a scientist or physician or person who can make the big decisions for the rest of society. I merely am a self-interested observer who is enjoying retirement and looking forward to my 21st trip to Hawaii with my wife as soon as possible. Nothing more.