A U.S. Airline Will Declare Bankruptcy In 2021, And Two Smaller Airlines Will Merge

by Gary Leff

News and notes from around the interweb:

  • United Airlines says no more layoffs expected, and they’re ready to ship vaccines as cargo undermining both of the (already flimsy) arguments for a second round of government subsidies. Yet if averting a government shutdown for a week winds up tying keeping government ‘open’ to a second CARES Act, which includes more government funds for airline shareholders, it becomes a ‘must pass’ rather than being judged on the merits – or lack thereof.

  • Former Spirit Airlines CEO Ben Baldanza says a U.S. airline will declare bankruptcy in 2021, and two smaller airlines will merge. But the likelihood of a second round of airline subsidies has gone up, and my expectations for summer 2021 air travel are more optimistic than Baldanza’s.

    There may not be many planes left for American or United to borrow against, but they still have levers to pull to access cash from their frequent flyer programs. Whether more borrowing makes sense if the industry doesn’t recover next year, compared to a reorganization, is another matter of course.

  • Stuff passengers ask their flight attendants.

  • Indonesia re-opens 7 airports for international flights but passengers are restricted to ” Indonesian citizens, diplomatic visas, business visas, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) card holders..foreign workers, investors, medical assistance workers, trade and other emergency visits” in other words no tourism yet.

    I have an award booking held for 2021, 3 passengers in QSuites to the Mideast and Bali, trying to decide between Viceroy and Alilia Uluwatu.

  • Commercial pilots cannot fly for 48 hours after receiving the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine.

  • Kansas is paying as much as $3000 per night for quarantine hotel rooms

  • Another shooting at the Intercontinental Atlanta Buckhead. It’s the second shooting there in a month.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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  3. Could be JetBlue and Alaska. Strong east and west coast presence, respectively, but not as much on the other coast, respectively. Also AA would probably be next for Bankruptcy

  5. A merger could involve any of these airlines: JetBlue, Alaska, Hawaiian, Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant. Could also see consolidation among the regional carriers.

    American seems most likely to file bankruptcy.

  6. I dont see Alaska merging with Jetblue because its not cost effective because their fleets arent competitive so maintenance cost would be way too high, due to Alaska changing to all Boeing and Jetblue is all Airbus. However, Spirit and Frontier would be the perfect marriage as they are a lot similar of an operation that merger would be more of a seamless transition.

  7. I agree an Alaska/Jet Blue merger is highly speculative at.best. Over the years the rumor mill churned with rumors about Alaska mergers with Continental, AA, Delta and even TWA but they have remained independent and will probably stay that way. I wonder if there were a merger of two regionals which ones are most likely? As for the bankruptcy that’s anyone’s guess.

  8. No one is suggesting Sun Country as an airline to merge with, interesting since they were a top performer of 2020

  10. Not American it’s fine. It code-shares with Alaska,BA, and works closely with Quantas, Finnair to name a few. Jetblue,SWA are good. Don’t know much about Sun Country, no value with a merger. Alaska airlines is becoming a hub for AA in Seattle for Asian market.I worked for AWA, we bought USair and then we merged with AA. That is why Doug Parker runs AA. He ran AWA and buy out of USair.Frontier probably merge with someone.

  11. I say United Airlines because of the way they treat people. Like the latest one with a 2 yr old not wearing a mask. They have been sued so many times.

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