American Airlines has bested United Airlines in a fiercely fought battle for a coveted takeoff and landing slot at Tokyo’s Haneda airport, which became available when Delta determined it couldn’t make its Portland to Tokyo flight work.
Haneda is where you want to fly when going to Tokyo. When you land at Tokyo Haneda airport you’re a 20 minute drive from your hotel without traffic. You hop in a cab and go. At Narita airport a cab can run nearly $300. So you take a 70 minute ride on the Narita Express and then have to take a cab to your hotel. Or you cram into a bus that stops at several hotels. This can take hours in traffic.
Narita Express Train
Tokyo’s Haneda airport is where people want to fly in and out of if they’re traveling to Tokyo. Rights to fly there are strictly controlled. A limited number of slots are allocated to U.S. airlines and those are handed out by the Department of Transportation based on ‘public benefit’.
Delta Air Lines got the most slots to Haneda airport because it doesn’t have a joint venture partner there. American partners with Japan Airlines, and United partners with All Nippon Airways. However Delta decided it no longer wanted to operate its Portland – Tokyo flight.
They asked the Department of Transportation to treat it as a property right and let them fly it from another airport. DOT said that isn’t how this works. Each airline proposes a route, and DOT decides what is in the public interest. Delta gave back the slot, and didn’t try to rebid for it. That left two contenders:
- American Airlines proposed to fly New York JFK to Tokyo Haneda. Their joint venture partner Japan Airlines already does.
- United proposed to fly Houston to Tokyo Haneda. Their joint venture partner Japan Airlines already does. And United planned to stop flying Houston to Tokyo Narita. There would be no net add of Tokyo service for the Houston market.
American Airlines New York JFK Terminal 8
United argued that since the government beat back American’s partnership with JetBlue, they wouldn’t have a lot of connecting traffic. That was a silly argument. Connections can go through Dallas on American rather than through United and Houston, and there was no connecting traffic to speak of on Delta’s Portland flight.
After the third quarter American Airlines earnings call, I reported exclusively that the airline was telling employees it expected to win these slots. Last week I shared that American was recruiting flight attendants who speak Japanese for New York. They were pretty sure.
And they were right. The Department of Transportation has awarded the Tokyo Haneda slot to American Airlines pending any appeals. Detailed scheduled haven’t been announced. Currently American operations Boeing 777 widebodies from New York.
Boeing 777-200 Concept D Business Class
These airlines are now allowed to serve Tokyo Haneda airport from:
- American Airlines: Dallas-Fort Worth; Los Angeles; New York JFK
- Delta Air Lines: Seattle; Detroit; Atlanta; Honolulu; Los Angeles; Minneapolis
- Hawaiian Airlines: Honolulu
- United Airlines: Newark; Chicago O’Hare; Washington-Dulles; Los Angeles; San Francisco
Tokyo Skyline at Night
I’m genuinely excited every time I touch down in Tokyo, and of course it’s one of the best food cities in the world.
Takashi Ono at Jiro Roppongi
If American Airlines, with a hub at Miami, had proposed to give Miami an Asia non-stop that would have been even more compelling to DOT. Delta also could have tried Miami. They are growing in the market in conjunction with having poached LATAM away from American Airlines as a close partner. Either would have given Miami its only Asia flight. However I’m thrilled to see another Tokyo Haneda flight on American and out of New York.
Any idea when sales will open?
As I also expected.
And UA is PI87ed. Their monopoly of NYC-East Asia is coming to an end.
And Delta will start at least JFK-ICN and India UA will all of a sudden find itself as no longer the international darling in NYC.
And AA probably won’t be able to make JFK-HND work; if they really wanted JFK including HND to work, they would base 787s there. The difference in fuel costs between a 777 and a 787 on a 14 hour flight is $25,000 at current fuel prices.
And UA will push on ANA to push on the Japanese government to expand HND Terminal 3 where most US carrier flights operate so that UA can throw in the towel on the UA/NH NRT hub which becomes less and less valuable – and more of a drag on UA’s finances with every new route to HND.
UA has had a hard month. I’m sure Kirby is on his way to Colorado in his private jet right now.
@ Gary — UA and JL do not have a JV.
United has a joint venture with ANA, not Japan Airlines.
@TimDunn the 777 also has ~40 more seats and more premium seating. It all depends on whether they can fill the plane, especially the front.
AA’s bid wasn’t that great but there wasn’t much competition. Delta wanted to move the flight to another city so it should have. Why did they initially lie? They could have tried SLC, OGG, etc. Depending on the legal technicalities, maybe they could have proposed 3 cities, each served 2-3 times a week.
AA’s 772ERs have 273 seats and their 789s have 285.
The 772 does have more premium seats but AA is not going to be the first choice on this route given JL’s far superior product on the A350-1000. But AA and JL do have a joint venture so AA gets some of that revenue now. JL and NH fly super-premium aircraft on JFK-HND so AA’s role will be to provide a competitively priced economy and premium economy and “discount” business class product.
It is precisely because they are using a fuel inefficient 772 in a market where their JV partner has a much higher quality product that AA’s work is cut out for them.
But I am glad AA gets another chance at Tokyo. While I am not optimistic they will make it work based on their other JFK flights, the flight will be operated to JAL’s base as part of their JV.
AA’s smaller size to Asia and Tokyo as well as their superior proposal to add a flight rather than move one from NRT to HND as UA proposed is why they have won.
Tim Dunn is under an obligation to his ego to berate American Airlines with every comment he makes, whether the criticism is deserved or not. That’s because he wants American to be liquidated. He’s also convinced himself that his beloved Delta is the world’s only PERFECT airline, and as such, it and he should be impervious to any form of questions. Delta is an excellent airline that is currently on top of its game – but it isn’t perfect. No human endeavor is perfect.
oh, please.
Of course I am glad that AA got the route so it can be liquidated.
Get help.
In flight between AA and UA, DL is the clear winner here by not even participating.
The schedule has been announced already. DP JFK 10AM ARR HND 1:05PM. DP HND 3:05PM ARR JFK 3:10PM.
@Tim Dunn, DL can’t make JFK-HND work. They tried it post NW merger, and it failed. End of story.
With JAL flying between HND and JFK, why would anybody want to fly the same rounte with AA?
no, DL flew JFK-NRT as part of the Tokyo hub strategy.
DL did not choose to apply for JFK-HND in part because the poor JPY USD exchange rate make the US very expensive right now.
As Gary notes, DL is still the largest US – and foreign carrier – at HND.
And DL is using the A350 it could have used for JFK-HND to fly a second daily ATL-ICN on its own metal – for 3 flights/day between DL and KE – to KE’s JV hub.
DL is chomping at the bit to add ICN flights and added ATL because Asiana does not fly there and so DL’s addition of the flight won’t affect approval of KE’s merger petition w/ OZ to the EU and US.
In a couple years, DL will have more service between Japan and Korea on its own metal than any other US airline, NRT included.
and United has far more at stake trying to make a NRT JV hub work. Their attempt to transfer their IAH flight from NRT to HND proves what I have been saying which is that NRT is becoming less and less viable as a hub.
AA’s addition of one more route to HND makes UA’s EWR-NRT that much less viable.
@Tim Dunn
You of all people should know that having your own metal on routes doesn’t really matter. AA/UA have Joint Ventures and that’s okay.
If having your own metal mattered, Deltas Narita hub would still exist
Tim got all triggered today. After being dogmatic delta would get jfk-HND in this slot award, delta didn’t even apply.
I think we all know his thoughts are garbage at this point just like his rants after a few drinks on a Friday, per usual
Sorry. Tim
Delta can’t compete to Tokyo from jfk and they did an entire DOT presentation about how none of their US hubs can do well either
Enjoy incheon. Pretty hub but everyone knows delta couldn’t even buy JAL’s affection despite trying desperately and not even wanting a JV with KE years after
I like KE and ICN but it’s no secret that delta was left with their last choice in KE
no, DL’s NRT hub would not have existed regardless of whether there was a JV.
The Japanese government decided to open HND to longhaul international flights again and DL had the choice to either move its Tokyo-US flights to HND but could not operate the beyond Tokyo flights or they could stay at NRT and still operate there with a hub.
DL, based on history in London between LHR and LGW and in Paris between ORY and CDG, chose to move its US-Japan flights to HND.
and then it developed its JV with Korean. And Delta’s US-Japan flights ARE part of the DL-KE JV as is KE’s HNL-NRT flight when it operates, which it does not at the present moment because of the weak Yen.
HND growth is limited by the treaty between the US and Japan. NRT doesn’t work as a local market because HND pulls all of the high value traffic.
ICN has growth capacity and DL will grow as soon as the KE-OZ merger is decided one way or another.
AA operates 5 flights to Japan and Korea and that will grow to 6 with JFK-HND. DL operates 10 and that will grow to 11 with ATL-ICN #2. UA operates 10 and that will grow to 11 if they get GUM.
DL is expected to launch LAX-ICN later this year, followed by JFK and SLC in 2025.
DL will be the largest US carrier from the US to Japan and Korea combined on its own metal.
Given that flights to China are capped and all US carriers are or can be at the same level – DL and UA have asked for equal amounts of flights, DL will be the largest carrier on its own metal to Japan, S. Korea and China.
And if you want to include JV partners, KE is a larger transpacific carrier than JL or NH.
The DL/KE JV is larger than AA/JL or UA/NH and the DL/KE JV will continue to grow.
and, Max, the reason why JAL rejected DL’s proposal for a JV was because DL was TOO LARGE and overlapped JL not only to the US but also within Asia. JL had to settle for a small fry for a partner and that is what they got with AA.
UA’s size in Asia comes from its destinations in HKG and south. DL is re-adding TPE and will keep adding flights from the US to the Pacific Rim.
UA’s position in Asia is threatened. AA doesn’t care because there is nothing they can do.
Let them celebrate JFK-HND which DL doesn’t want right now; they may want it later but for now they are focused on building ICN.
AA’s JFK-HND route will do more harm to UA than to anyone else.
Bottom line? Delta is a Loser.
B/S – “ When you land at Tokyo Haneda airport you’re a 20 minute drive from your hotel without traffic. ”
Not if your hotel is @ Shinjuku.
*rolls eyes*
Alan,
your spectacles are scratched.
DL’s bottom line was $2 billion larger than UA or any other US airline. and any global airline for that matter.
@Tim Dunn that conjecture on competition against UA assumes that most of Delta’s added routes will be successful – based on historic performance of those routes to Asia, that won’t happen.
Seattle has never proven to be a great Transpacific hub – the O&D demand exists but significantly lags the Bay Area and LA and and the domestic feed isn’t great. TPE has limited demand from SEA and is already served by EVA – Delta and Starlux will both add the route this year. Given labor and operating costs, it’s obvious that route will not do well for Delta. Even with the Japan travel surge they waited until late October to upgrade the SEA – TYO route to daily.
Then the other issue is China – there will be a boost in the number of flights for their carriers. Delta wasn’t doing great flying there – they cut HK from all of their hubs including SEA in 2018, only operated to Beijing from SEA and Detroit, and Shanghai from ATL, SEA, and LAX. Problem is, yield to China for all the airlines isn’t looking very good based on 2023 performance (and was true pre-pandemic as well). That will hurt United too, but that SFO hub is the gift that will help while everyone else basically breaks even or loses in other markets like the status quo.
So where else would Delta fly? Singapore? Already served by Singapore and unlikely Delta can make it work from SEA – maybe ATL. India? Even Air India doesn’t fly direct to Seattle with no Russian-air space concerns. Until they can find a hub, United will lead the Transpacific flying. Their position is much better than AA, but until they can find a profitable fortress hub for Asia they will forever lag UA.
Nevertheless, Delta is a Loser. They lost Haneda. Therefore they are Losers.
I don’t care about their bank account, I only care about their snobby attitude.
Snobby Delta = Loser.
Not only did they lose in Japan, but also Mexico, now that the DOT has ordered them to terminate the JV with AM. There goes Tim Dunn’s false story of how DL is the largest player in Mexico. Now they will be stuck with just 5 destinations; with a lot of reduction in frequencies to come soon.
Yes Tim says DL is the winner in a contest between AA and UA over a coveted slot to one of the most important aviation markets in the world. Yet DL didn’t even bother applying since they know their split hub in NYC would not be able to support the flight, and they know their other hubs couldn’t support the additional frequency.
As it is, DL is currently “wasting” a prime HND slot with a 767 to HNL, a beach and vacation market up against NH A380s. It would be way too embarrassing to give up two HND slots, as it would mean admitting they can’t carry enough premium traffic to make the slot work from another hub.
Tim always talks about current UA service to Asia from NYC, but glosses over the fact that UA is running double daily to DEL. The single airport NYC hub has profitably supported double daily to TLV, in addition to flights to BOM, HKG, PVG, and PEK. Those flights are suspended due to geopolitical issues, not a dual airport hub that meant DL never operated most of those flights in the first place.
Also, are you really saying the Boeing issues are going to only impact UA? Yes the MAX 9s were grounded for three weeks, but will be back in service Sunday and Boeing will ensure UA is very well-compensated. DL has almost as many MAX 10s on order as UA does, so I assure you DL will see impact from this too.
Mark, Jeremy et al,
so it is waste of a slot for DL to serve HNL to HND but UA will jump in and grab HA’s slot for GUM? the hypocrisy is breathtaking.
And the reason why UA has had to drop EWR to BOM, HKG, PEK and PVG is as much about the inability of the 787 to operate those routes given the Russian airspace restrictions, not because of geopolitical factors. The A350s that DL is getting are more than capable of flying JFK-DEL and BOM; SQ overflies India on less capable and lower capacity A350s for several more hours on its way from JFK and EWR to SIN.
UA simply chose to use the same number of China frequencies it has to fly to SFO to both PVG and PEK while DL is choosing to be the largest US carrier at PVG alone – where China Eastern is based. DL operates the US-China route most east in the US with DTW-PVG, already giving it an advantage over UA.
And DL has operated very few routes to Asia outside of to Tokyo. It is rebuilding its Asian network post-Tokyo hub and it is getting the planes and has the markets to do it.
You are free to talk about the strength of SFO – and it is a great hub – but DL has LAX and SEA and DL will have more service from the west coast to PVG than UA does between DL’s two hubs. DL is and will continue to grow LAX and SEA across the Pacific.
And DL’s position as the largest airline in the US to SYD market shows the challenge that UA is trying to defend SFO and also grow LAX.
You are free to discount DL’s future growth to Asia but you would be making a mistake.
Scott Kirby knows exactly what is happening. DL hasn’t made a bunch of noise about its growth but has already overtaken UA from NYC and LAX to Latin America in partnership with Latam, will overtake UA to the entire region, and is starting to build out Asia and the S. Pacific with the 45 new and ex-Latam A350s and 12 (so far) A339s that will be available for transpacific service in the next 5 years.
UA has trumpeted size for years and DL, without making a lot of noise, is doing what UA said it would do.
And specific to NYC, DL has already handedly overtaken UA to S. America w/ GIG, GRU, EZE, and BOG plus MEX, CUN, STI, SDQ, and SJU – a longer list than either AA or UA. Throw in LIM and SCL via the Latam JV and DL has handedly become the largest carrier from NYC to Latin America. LAX has a different but smaller list but the principle is the same.
DL is happy to let AA and UA duke it out for NYC-HND. DL has already taken S. America, will retake US-Europe in 2024; UA execs just said they are not growing to Europe this year while DL is. DL will add JFK-ICN and India. Even if UA adds more longhaul routes, they will be doing it with 787s which are smaller than either version of the A350.
UA committed to the MAX and is getting burnt based on the slowdown of deliveries and stuck w/ the 787 when the A350 is a larger and more capable aircraft.
UA is simply not going to have the international dominance it has now or you or they thinks it will have.
Kirby’s strategies of dominance and growth are vaporizing before his eyes.
so it is waste of a slot for DL to serve HNL to HND but UA will jump in and grab HA’s slot for GUM? the hypocrisy is breathtaking. And the reason why UA has had to drop EWR to BOM, HKG, PEK and PVG is as much about the inability of the 787 to operate those routes given the Russian airspace restrictions, not because of geopolitical factors. The A350s that DL is getting are more than capable of flying JFK-DEL and BOM; SQ overflies India on less capable and lower capacity A350s for several more hours on its way from JFK and EWR to SIN. UA simply chose to use the same number of China frequencies it has to fly to SFO to both PVG and PEK while DL is choosing to be the largest US carrier at PVG alone – where China Eastern is based. DL operates the US-China route most east in the US with DTW-PVG, already giving it an advantage over UA. And DL has operated very few routes to Asia outside of to Tokyo. It is rebuilding its Asian network post-Tokyo hub and it is getting the planes and has the markets to do it. You are free to talk about the strength of SFO – and it is a great hub – but DL has LAX and SEA and DL will have more service from the west coast to PVG than UA does between DL’s two hubs. DL is and will continue to grow LAX and SEA across the Pacific. And DL’s position as the largest airline in the US to SYD market shows the challenge that UA is trying to defend SFO and also grow LAX. You are free to discount DL’s future growth to Asia but you would be making a mistake. Scott Kirby knows exactly what is happening. DL hasn’t made a bunch of noise about its growth but has already overtaken UA from NYC and LAX to Latin America in partnership with Latam, will overtake UA to the entire region, and is starting to build out Asia and the S. Pacific with the 45 new and ex-Latam A350s and 12 (so far) A339s that will be available for transpacific service in the next 5 years. UA has trumpeted size for years and DL, without making a lot of noise, is doing what UA said it would do. And specific to NYC, DL has already handedly overtaken UA to S. America w/ GIG, GRU, EZE, and BOG plus MEX, CUN, STI, SDQ, and SJU – a longer list than either AA or UA. Throw in LIM and SCL via the Latam JV and DL has handedly become the largest carrier from NYC to Latin America. LAX has a different but smaller list but the principle is the same. DL is happy to let AA and UA duke it out for NYC-HND. DL has already taken S. America, will retake US-Europe in 2024; UA execs just said they are not growing to Europe this year while DL is. DL will add JFK-ICN and India. Even if UA adds more longhaul routes, they will be doing it with 787s which are smaller than either version of the A350. UA committed to the MAX and is getting burnt based on the slowdown of deliveries and stuck w/ the 787 when the A350 is a larger and more capable aircraft. UA is simply not going to have the international dominance it has now or you or they thinks it will have. Kirby’s strategies of dominance and growth are vaporizing before his eyes.
so it is waste of a slot for DL to serve HNL to HND but UA will jump in and grab HA’s slot for GUM? the hypocrisy is breathtaking. And the reason why UA has had to drop EWR to BOM, HKG, PEK and PVG is as much about the inability of the 787 to operate those routes given the Russian airspace restrictions, not because of geopolitical factors. The A350s that DL is getting are more than capable of flying JFK-DEL and BOM; SQ overflies India on less capable and lower capacity A350s for several more hours on its way from JFK and EWR to SIN. UA simply chose to use the same number of China frequencies it has to fly to SFO to both PVG and PEK while DL is choosing to be the largest US carrier at PVG alone – where China Eastern is based. DL operates the US-China route most east in the US with DTW-PVG, already giving it an advantage over UA. And DL has operated very few routes to Asia outside of to Tokyo. It is rebuilding its Asian network post-Tokyo hub and it is getting the planes and has the markets to do it. You are free to talk about the strength of SFO – and it is a great hub – but DL has LAX and SEA and DL will have more service from the west coast to PVG than UA does between DL’s two hubs. DL is and will continue to grow LAX and SEA across the Pacific. And DL’s position as the largest airline in the US to SYD market shows the challenge that UA is trying to defend SFO and also grow LAX. You are free to discount DL’s future growth to Asia but you would be making a mistake. UA knows exactly what is happening. DL is just starting to build out Asia and the S. Pacific with the 45 new and ex-Latam A350s and 12 (so far) A339s that will be available for transpacific service in the next 5 years. UA has trumpeted size for years and DL, without making a lot of noise, is doing what UA said it would do. DL will add JFK-ICN and India. Even if UA adds more longhaul routes, they will be doing it with 787s which are smaller than either version of the A350. UA committed to the MAX and is getting burnt based on the slowdown of deliveries and stuck w/ the 787 when the A350 is a larger and more capable aircraft. UA is simply not going to have the international dominance it has now or you or they thinks it will have.
This article was written by a third grader. All emotion and little facts.
Maybe this will help American/ America West finally turn a profit?
Great news! I will enjoy flying AA to HND.
DL should have gotten JFK-HND, AA already has a JV partner (JL) that offers a far superior product. DL does not and being the dominant carrier at JFk, could have made it work.
@John S – Delta did not want (ask for) JFK-HND
PHL and Japan. This American hub is the largest metro area without non stop Asian service..
@Jim – there is very little O/D traffic however
While I expected that DL would go for JFK-HND first and then add JFK-ICN and then India with their newest and most capable A350s, DL execs clearly have the data to show that now is not the time for JFK-HND but that doesn’t mean that time won’t come in the future.
DL has said that flights to its JV hubs make twice the margin as international flights to non-JV hubs so it isn’t a surprise that they are adding ATL-ICN #2 over JFK-HND
There has been a long-standing internet narrative that DL was lost in Asia and would not grow – not much different from AA.
In reality, DL was thrown a curveball when the Japanese government refused to let DL move its beyond Tokyo flights to HND while opening up HND.
DL was right that HND flights would generate higher average fares and pull traffic from NRT and that is why they gave up NRT and are shifting US-Asia connections to ICN.
Covid hit, DL retired its 777s, planned for a 2024 of international demand, and had a fleet of A350s that were less capable than the 777LRs (comparable in performance to the 777-200ERs) but is now getting not only the number but also the most capable A350s.
DL will be growing its Asia presence considerably in the next few years.
JFK-HND will come at some point. Right now, DL has the largest US carrier presence at HND and a growing presence at ICN which is effectively to DL what NRT is for AA and UA.
and AA’s presence on JFK-HND weakens UA’s EWR-NRT as AA will be able to pull the same value of passengers that UA has carried since JL and NH operate premium configured aircraft from JFK to HND. DL is more than happy to watch AA succeed at putting a few dents in UA’s armor.
@Tim Dunn again that assumes those flight additions will be successful – it takes one look at history and load factors to strongly suggest they will not. Delta could not make LAX work to HK or Beijing pre-pandemic. Shanghai almost certainly also lost money and Tokyo flew with limited frequencies until the start of this year. Sure they can introduce an LAX – ICN route to jump in their joint venture (that is already well served) but they have a growth problem. You can’t say Delta has LAX when they struggle to make money and compete there – why would that change?
Same applies to Seattle – again sure they can add a flight to ICN but where else are they going to go? They faced the same issue – marginal success on flights from SEA to the 2 largest cities in China and middling success at Tokyo. TPE and those other additions we very likely know will not work so why the excitement?
You claim as though they can introduce these flights to East Asia from JFK, but Delta has tried this already and it didn’t work – will the 3rd time be the charm? Unlikely, but we’ll see. India will make sense to add from JFK, but SEA is a terrible hub for it – maybe they can try in LAX, but SFO is the attractive hub for that route. Singapore is the up and coming hub but unlikely they can go there.
There are a lot of things Delta can do but very few that look like they will work. Delta can plan whatever, but until they can have a clear TransPacific Hub that is not SEA which doesn’t have sufficient volumes or LAX which has far too much competition with no player dominant enough then United will lead.
Your facts are more than a tad off.
DL was never awarded LAX-PEK. AA got that route and handed not only it but also LAX-PVG back to the DOT. DL will be the first US carrier back into LAX-PVG.
DL last flew LAX-HKG with an MD11 which couldn’t do the job. You do realize that AA and DL both parked their MD11 fleets fairly early?
DL did drop DTW-HKG and SEA-HKG but HKG is the only destination outside of Japan that DL has terminated service to. AA and UA both tried to act like HKG was strategically necessary and lost hundreds of millions of dollars trying to fly HKG and mainland China flights that didn’t work. AA has still not returned to HKG. UA’s Pacific profitability has improved so much because it cannot fly a lot of China flights and its HKG flights are all from the west coast – so shorter.
I was just in HKG and Cathay Pacific is a shell of its former self and alot of people there are not happy w/ their service.
I would love to see DL back in HKG and their execs say HKG is on the list of cities it plans to serve in E. Asia with its A350s that are coming; the A350 is simply far more capable and cost efficient than anything in UA or AA’s longhaul fleet.
Feel free to provide proof that DL doesn’t make money in LAX. Repeating internet lore doesn’t make it fact.
DL has flown only JFK-NRT as part of the Tokyo hub.
You clearly are fixated by the notion that DL is impotent and can’t grow in Asia while UA will sap up all the growth. that idea was flawed from the beginning – DL was not going to sit by and let UA make money if there was money to be made to Asia. DL works very methodically but they are returning to growth mode in Asia w/ a much better strategy and planes than not only DL or NW ever had but also anything AA and UA have.
You would be foolish to discount what DL will do in Asia.
Thanks for the article! I hope this addition of daily operations between JFK and Tokyo will prompt the tix prices to go down.
Pre-pandemic, direct flights for this route in J were typically in the $4.5K to $5K range, but the same tix have been stuck in the $8k range for some time now. I personally attribute it to the fact that ANA and JAL are the only viable options out of JFK to Tokyo (UA uses EWR; DL, w/o a Japanese alliance partner, isn’t always a good choice for passengers that reside in Japan).
@Tim, UA would serve HND from GUM using a nighttime slot that wouldn’t work from anywhere else. DL is using a daytime slot for HNL.
DL is the largest US carrier to SYD? UA is double daily from SFO while also serving LAX and IAH. That’s four flights to SYD.
UA has also said the additional 787s coming online, starting this year, will be used to rebuild China. DL is only even with UA to China (assuming you exclude HKG, which makes UA significantly bigger) due to artificial constraints. The UA hubs are much better suited for Asia flying, especially SFO that doesn’t have the fierce international competition in LAX or the relatively low O&D in SEA.
My reference to SYD was from LAX. DL is the only carrier that is operating double daily.
I know UA is larger to most of the Pacific but every time you and others tout SFO you fail to note that DL is growing both SEA and LAX across the Pacific.
UA is not going to get any advantage to China because the DOT is allowing AA, DL and UA to each get equal amounts of frequencies UNTIL they are all back to their pre-covid allocations and what the treaty allows. No one realistically expects China to reopen all frequencies because they had to subsidize their carriers in order to support the number of flights they had pre-covid and the Chinese are not going to allow US carriers to carry a higher percentage of flights than Chinese carriers.
In Japan, Korea, and China, DL and UA are the same size and DL will overtake UA. DL is adding flights elsewhere in Asia besides those 3 countries and will continue to do so.
As hard as it is for you to accept, UA’s dominance of the Pacific will be cut.
And DL is growing its Pacific with much more cost efficient aircraft.
The reason why UA is not growing its Atlantic this year is because they know that DL made considerably more money flying slightly less capacity. DL has been more profitable flying the Pacific with less capacity. UA simply cannot continue to pursue growth when it can’t deliver margins as high as DL and while adding debt.
Once again, DL retired billions in debt in 2023 and had $2 billion in free cash flow while UA is burning cash even w/ its reduced number of aircraft deliveries.
DL spent $1.5 billion less on fuel than UA in 2023 and generated more revenue and $2 billion more in profits.
DL has the best formula for international growth and they will use it.
A few factors you might consider, Mark, when you and others talk about all of this international growth you think UA will do:
1. Limitations due to treaties and bilaterals. We have discussed China and Japan and the fact that S. Korea really does have legitimate Open Skies while Japan does not allow it at HND, the airport with the greatest revenue per flight. UA isn’t going to add flights to KIX or NRT although there is Open Skies there.
2. Limitations due to Russian airspace closures and other no-fly zones for US airlines. Although you love to talk about SFO, the reality is that most of UA’s transpacific routes from the eastern US to East Asia outside of Japan don’t work due to flight time. There is only so many flights UA can add from the west coast to compensate for its inability to operate from the East Coast to deep E. Asia.
3. Limitations of the 787. As you know, UA dropped EWR-BOM and DEL to everywhere except for EWR because of a combination of #2 and the 787’s limitations. DL says they can make BOM work and they are likely right given that SQ overflies India on the way from JFK/EWR to SIN and they don’t even use the most capable A350s.
DL flies DTW-PVG and it is hitting 16 hours on a regular basis in the winter and even longer on some days – and DL is not using the most capable A350s. UA can probably fly EWR-PVG but will have to payload restrict on some days. On DEL-EWR, on days the flight exceeds 16.5 hours, the flight is never full.
If UA has to compete with a 787 with 230 or fewer seats vs. DL using an A350 with 275 seats – their newer more premium configuration on the most capable A350-900s, the economics will simply not favor UA operating profitably.
Because of Russian airspace restrictions, flights to PEK now take longer than to PVG which means that EWR-PEK and IAD-PEK and perhaps ORD-PEK will not work unless UA consistently sells 80% of their 265 seat B787-9 for 5 months a year. Given that DL and UA pay the same salaries to pilots, having 40-50 less passengers on a UA 787 vs a DL A350 is not a recipe for financial success.
UA will run out of routes it can operate using its pre-covid allocations before DL will and will be forced to petition the DOT for a route case to allocate any new routes which makes it unlikely UA will retain the advantage it once had.
The reality is that all of this growth that you and others think will come to UA is simply not possible to the destinations and on the routes that UA flew even 5 years ago while DL will be much more capable of serving those routes with the A350-900 and economics will be even better on the A350-1000 on routes that can justify that kind of capacity – which will be similar to the UA 777-300ER but at much lower operating costs.
UA’s rapid growth wasn’t sustainable as soon as DL started growing w/ much more efficient and capable aircraft; Russian, Middle East and Ukraine airspace closures plus treaty limitations combined w/ the limits of the 787 cut the number of routes dramatically.
Aside from Tim Dunn lectures….
Last week flew AA J LAX-HND 787
No IFE
Auto window shade didn’t tint so being on the left side I had sun streaming into the cabin at my seat. And I was told to write to Boeing
When I complained via the app, I was thanked for flying their “world class airline”
When I complained about their “world class airline” a second time I was awarded 7,500 miles.
AA’s lack of maintenance – which Gary regularly writes about – doesn’t change the economics of operating the plane.
It does cheapen the product but can and does happen on every aircraft type.
And one more tidbit. DL now operates more flights from ATL, DTW, and MSP to East Asia than UA does from EWR and IAD – 2 from ATL growing to 3 this summer – and 2.5 from DTW – HND, ICN and 3 day/week PVG and 2 from MSP which happens to be to two cities while UA from ORD is just to 2 airports in Tokyo.
DL always was larger in the eastern US than UA and now that trend is spreading to include Asia.
That reality is not lost on UA execs.
and I will say that I enjoy discussing w/ Mark more than just about anyone on the internet.
We have very different ideas but he is articulate and polite.
I can only wish there were more aviation chat participants like him.
PHl has service to 18 European cities. I see no reason it cannot capture one asia route.
I love to see UA lose
@TimDunn….
UA is not growing to Europe? Then what is EWR-FAO, ORD-ATH, SFO-BCN? UA did the bulk of their major TA expansion two seasons ago. DL has catch up to do, if they can.
When you count SEA AND LAX as West coast hubs, surely you can’t disrespect UA @ LAX.
LAX-LHR, NRT, HND, HKG, SYD, AKL, MEL. Once the IGW 787s are on property, you’ll see more adds, including PVG.
All of your points assume UA will stand still while DL has their way. Not so.
The internal numbers for future increases via the West coast are stunning.
It’s disingenuous to say the 787s are the problem to the suspended routes. If there wasn’t a war in Ukraine and if there wasn’t a war in Israel, most routes would be operating. I recall that DL’s A350s have issues in JNB and that’s why DL is running triangles via CPT instead of nonstop.
Your green-eyed envy of UA is so evident with your daily rants.