Early in the pandemic China limited U.S. airline flights, as part of its pandemic response. This came after the U.S. imposed a ban on passengers who had been to China in the previous fourteen days. And in response to China’s limits on U.S. airline flights, the Trump administration limited Chinese airline flights. This was protectionist tit-for-tat, and clearly not because the U.S. was imposing any sort of quarantine and testing regime on air travel (it wasn’t).
In the U.S. view, Chinese limits on U.S. airline flights are a violation of the air services treaty between the two countries. So when the Chinese government served notice on United Airlines that “five passengers who traveled from San Francisco to Shanghai tested positive for COVID-19 on July 21” and that United would face limits on its flying as a result, that provoked an international trade incident.
China gave United Airlines three options,
- cancel two San Francisco – Shanghai flights
- operate two flights without passengers
- operate four inbound flights with a 40% load factor cap
United agreed to the third option, and China instructed that the load factor cap had to be applied to four Wednesday flights, starting August 11, 2021.
In response (.pdf) the U.S. government says punishing airlines for bringing Covid-positive passengers to China is bogus,
[The U.S. government] has conveyed its view that the “circuit breaker” measure places undue culpability on carriers with respect to travelers that test positive for COVID-19 after their arrival in China. As carriers are following all relevant Chinese regulations with respect to pre-departure and in-flight protocols, they should not be penalized as a result of travelers later testing positive. In accordance with those regulations, the Chinese government individually clears each and every potential traveler for travel to China prior to their departure from the United States after verifying predeparture testing results and other required documentation. Carriers have no means to independently verify positive test results alleged by Chinese authorities. Furthermore, there is no way to establish where or when a traveler may have contracted COVID-19.
And so – for entirely un-Covid related reasons – the U.S. government is limiting Chinese flights in response. The Biden Administration’s Department of Transportation is imposing 40% load factor caps on four different Chinese airlines, over four separate routes, and over the course of four weeks.
- Air China: Beijing – Los Angeles (August 23-29, 2021)
- China Eastern: Shanghai – New York JFK (August 30-September 5, 2021)
- China Southern: Guangzhou – Los Angeles (September 6-12, 2021)
- Xiamen Airlines: Xiamen – Los Angeles (September 13-19)
In The Untouchables, Sean Connery told Kevin Costner that key to beating Al Capone is escalation:
He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. That’s the Chicago way.
United only had load factor caps on four flights. Four Chinese airlines have load factor caps on four routes, totaling six flights. Air China and China Southern are running their flights only once weekly, while China Eastern and Xiamen Airlines are operating their routes twice-weekly.
China though at least has the narrative that they’re taking Covid-19 seriously, and the U.S. isn’t. The U.S. takes issue with China’s health measures, so it copies them and then some for reasons other than health. Maybe the better analogy is Cleavon Little in Blazing Saddles holding a gun to his own head?
Regardless anyone that’s expected the Biden administration to toe a materially different line than the Trump administration with respect to China hasn’t watched Biden administration energy or immigration policy.
(HT: @EthanKlapper)
What would you propose the US should do? The response you quoted seems 100% reasonable. The US can’t just send a response letter, without doing anything materially, can it?
@ Gary — All that to say 6 flights vs 4 flights? How many actual passengers are/will be impacted? Close to none?
Exactly. Flights are full, and for a while already only F and J have seats for sale. So you are right that if passengers can fork out the cash for premium seats, the impact is indeed close to none.
Biden certainly doesn’t think Trump’s energy and immigration policies were what Biden wanted since he changed scores of policies within his first hours in office.
Bilateral aviation policy and execution has long been the domain of career bureaucrats, not politicians, and has been largely apolitical.
The reality is that air travel demand between China and US will not return to pre-covid levels for years, if ever. The Chinese government is trying desperately to prevent a return of capacity which depressed fares and required subsidies of Chinese carriers.
United will be by far the most impacted by the reduction in demand in China and Hong Kong which will almost certainly lead to the loss of its position as the largest airline across the Pacific. This latest tit for tat is just one more annoyance in UA’s attempts to be relevant in a dramatically shrinking market. Even before this latest episode, Delta and United were operating the same number of flights after years of a United advantage.
since biden didnt write any mean tweets its all ok
While we’re at it, it’s time for the U.S. to announce retribution for Communist China’s antics when it locked down domestic flights in early 2020 from Wuhan, but kept them flying out of Wuhan all over the U.S. and world. We should reduce the number of Red Chinese flights to U.S., reduce frequencies, and reduce seat capacity.
BTW-what will happen to our Boeing plant built in Red China? What U.S. president allowed that to happen?
Hey Joe, what’s our plan for Taiwan and Hong Kong..?
hmmmm… flights out of china to USA is not as full as USA to china…. so if tit for tat… should focus on flights from USA to china similar to what is instituted on United.
@Mark the armchair chicken hawk is ready to go to war. Get shot out of a cannon and settle things yourself, buddy. Allow the rest of humanity to survive. Uncle Sam is ramping up the volume on China because it needs an enemy so that the offense industries can harvest dough and then, in turn, fund politicians. Great system! The Circle Game. Then try to posture as moralists by screaming ‘human rights!’ as if there was no tomorrow.
The US is a complete joke. Not only it keeps killing its citizens by not taking COVID seriously, but it’s telegraphing the world that politics are more important than people’s lives. Republicans or Democrats they’re all buffoons.
@Amy – You may be a chinese bot, but you’re at least correct that politicians are buffoons.
I wonder what that makes idjits that froth at the mouth to defend ‘their’ buffoon?
@Indopithecus-the hyper-opinionated, quasi woke fool, committed to defeatism at any cost. So impressed with yourself no matter how incorrect you are. But hey, this is still the USA; so we’re required to let you shoot your mouth off to fumigate yourself.Just don’t be a total fool by taking cheap shots against people you don’t know, or, express your limited woke opinion on issues you’re pathetically so vapid about.Your eager willingness to sacrifice our economy and citizens to the Chinese virus certainly doesn’t impress anybody
@Indopithecus
You do realize that without Taiwan, vast amounts of the American economy come to a screeching halt? That every smartphone and anything using flash memory cannot be produced? Like every computer cannot be manufactured? The chip shortage affecting automotive manufacturing will be tiny in comparison to the loss of Taiwan’s semi conductor manufacturing!
For someone like you to comment, please demonstrate some knowledge of the subject, otherwise just STFU!
Gary, just another clickbait failure! Defending the Chinese does bode well with many Americans. Hopefully Biden does better at defending American interests than megalomaniac Trump.