On their second quarter earnings call, Norwegian Cruise Lines CEO Frank Del Rio said,
If you had told me that we were going to be facing these set of circumstances, and your question is, ‘Frank, would you be taking any bookings?’ I would have laughed at you.
I’ll say, ‘Of course, not, who would book? It’s crazy,’”
…But people are booking. People are confident that we’re going to come back. People do want to cruise. They miss it. It’s a heck of a vacation experience, a heck of a vacation value. And so this is temporary. The question is how temporary is temporary.
In the past several days one of the very first ships cruising again had 53 people who tested positive for Covid-19 and an Alaska cruise just had to return to port because of a Covid-positive passenger.
There are some people claiming cruise bookings are up during the crisis but that’s funny math. Still many people will cruise again, and cheap cruise stocks may be worth buying for the cruise discounts alone.
However the idea of cruising before there’s a vaccine seems insane on it’s face, though if you were a vaccine researcher wanting to trade on inside information you’d probably do it in cruise stocks. You can’t insider trade on your company’s stock. However if you’re sure the vaccine is going to work, buy cruise lines. If you think phase three trials aren’t going as well as hoped, short them.
Securities law experts among my readers will tell me if there’s anything problematic with that – a BioNTech or Moderna employee doesn’t have material inside knowledge about Norwegian Cruise Lines… or do they?