Delta Air Lines today announced that they have suspended codeshares with SkyTeam alliance member Aeroflot, which is 57% owned by the Russian government. I’m surprised it took this long. Beyond Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson there appears to be very little sympathy for Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Tag @Russia and tell them what you think about them
— Ukraine / Україна (@Ukraine) February 24, 2022
A Russian attack has seemed inevitable and that even if the military buildup had started as a bluff the game theory had a logical conclusion. Putin couldn’t back down without major concessions he wasn’t getting. And it probably didn’t begin as a bluff, at 70 years old this was likely his last big chance to expand the Russian frontier and population.
While a Russian victory seems inevitable, their military has performed below expectations. This may reduce their leverage over other neighbors rather than growing it, and might even drive additional nations (Finland/Sweden) closer to NATO membership rather than scaring them off of it.
Pentagon officials say Russian forces are not advancing on Kiev as fast as expected. Yet Russian forces are just miles from the center of the city. How fast did the Pentagon expect them to fight their way to Kiev, which approximately 90 miles from the Belarus border, in 2 days?
— Bill Roggio (@billroggio) February 25, 2022
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar has said that Russian armed forced have suffered big losses:
Tanks – up to 80
Aircraft – 10
Helicopters – 7
Personnel – 2,800
Armored combat vehicles of various types – 516 https://t.co/trqauJqvzG
— Martijn Rasser (@MartijnRasser) February 25, 2022
And the domestic costs to Putin of a long-running guerrilla actions against Russian forces may be greater than he’d anticipated.
— C4H10FO2P (@markito0171) February 25, 2022
A member of the Ukrainian parliament 👇 https://t.co/JOQAlEoOlq
— Amy Mackinnon (@ak_mack) February 25, 2022
This is kind of funny, and aviation-related:
Checking out wiki, I almost spat my tea pic.twitter.com/ibVu4coEeP
— Paweł Wójcik (@SaladinAlDronni) February 25, 2022
Oh, and Russian state-owned companies that are now being sanctioned by the Biden administration have been receiving U.S. government subsidies from a program in place because of its biggest beneficiary, Boeing.
Where does this end? I am neither an expert on Putin nor the region. However Putin’s appetites have already been shown to be greater than many believed. Should more be done in response? Perhaps, but not only does Russia possess nuclear weapons (likely wouldn’t be used), they also have significant cyber warfare capabilities. U.S. and European moves against Russian could be met with an asymmetric response. And yet U.S. markets were up yesterday, and significantly up again today – perhaps because the actual policy response has been somewhat muted, and perhaps because global events could forestall or minimize interest rate hikes.
American Airlines partners with oneworld member S7, the Siberian carrier. Unlike Aeroflot it is privately-owned.