Fifteen years ago my success with complimentary upgrades was nearly 100%. Elite status meant flying first class all the time.
However, first class upgrades have become nearly non-existent. Delta says only about 12% of their first class seats go to upgrades, while 15 years ago, 81% of first class seats went to upgrades, awards and employees.
American, Delta and United have all become adept at selling coach passengers upgrades to first class for tens of dollars, sometimes as little as $40. Delta will even sell long haul business class for as little as $299 more than coach.
U.S. airlines have done a complete 180, preferring to take the smallest cash payment from a once a year flyer over rewarding their most frequent, high revenue customers. I remember my jaw hitting the floor when United marketed a $59 upgrade to me by telling me the number of elite customers waiting for a complimentary upgrade I’d be jumping ahead of.
But these cheap ‘first class buy ups’ can be a great deal even as they make elite status so much less valuable. I recently purchased a couple of them and it caused me to refresh my thinking around how much I’m willing to pay. Six years ago it was $50. But with free less likely, and with inflation, my number has gone up a bit.
What’s your threshold for taking paid upgrades? I skip these offers on the shortest flights (I don’t value first that much more than coach) and – counterintuitively – I usually skip them when they’re cheapest because that is also usually when I will clear an upgrade for free. I do check how many seats are left for sale, though, to test whether my intuition makes sense that cheap means free is likely, since of course cheap may appeal to other passengers on the flight.
My rough framework goes something like this:
- is my free upgrade unlikely to clear?
- how much is the buy up, and how much per hour?
- what seat am I booked into already – how much do I want to avoid it? It’s one thing if I have an extra legroom aisle seat, but another if I’m in the middle seat back row of the plane.
I recently purchased two discounted segment upgrades on American Airlines trips.
- Washington National to Dallas – Fort Worth. It was a midday trip but it’s hub-to-hub on a Friday. I have rarely ever gotten upgraded on this route over the past decade. And the price they were asking gradually dropped from $500 to $200. It’s scheduled for around 3 hours and 15 minutes.
- Chicago O’Hare – Austin. This one was more marginal, also on a Friday, the price initially was $500 and went up to $600 before eventually falling back to $203. That’s the upper bound for what I’d consider. There were 10/16 first class seats taken on the seat map and 6 seats left for sale on this Boeing 737-800 at 18 days out.
The silly thing that tipped the scale for me? I’d finally get to try American’s pre-order burger, and I feel like I need to actually try it for this blog – so my calculation might be different than yours here!
Generally my price maximum for a paid upgrade domestically has gone up to $70 per hour. That’s when I’ll consider what alternative seat I’m stuck in. What’s yours?
And remember that if you don’t have elite status, you can save on paid seat assignments, save on checked bag fees, and board earlier so you’re not stuck gate checking your carry-on bag. You get extra space (I value for working comfortably) and on long enough flights a meal. You can value the food and alcohol at zero and still think this makes sense.
Is that $70 per hour actual flight time or total time ?
How did you monitor the offer/flight for the upgrade price as time went by? When I have checked in, I have seen an upgrade offer, but how do I refresh it and see any price drop? Thanks.
Here’s how the world ends. Not with a bang, but with people willing to book upgrades for a burger.
But AAL’s food is terrible! Bring Pepto-Bismal if you eat!
I find these upgrades reasonable as long as you will spend the time monitoring them on the airline’s app. While it might seem like an idea to skip on a short flight, have a delay at the gate or be held on the tarmac and suddenly that first class seat looks good. Not to mention the short flights often go for less than $100.
My general rule if seated in Premium Economy on a domestic flight in which sold as economy/economy plus/MCE don’t bother. You’re essentially getting a first class domestic seat minus the $5 Wawa meal. Possibly if I have one of the unlimited legroom exit rows on a 321 ceo/neo. Although that doesn’t stop someone with “girth” from spilling all into your seat.
I get why airlines are doing this. Why give away something of value?
Interesting rule. I say $0/hr for 1 hour flights, but anything longer I’ll do $125/hr.
Flying to Pebble Beach from DFW, declined a $350 upgrade, now it’s at $550, kicking myself for not taking it.
@ George N Romey
It would be an upgrade to AA‘s meal service if they would hand out Wawa sandwiches or meals instead of the slop they currently serve.
I have MVP Gold status on Alaska, which translates to OneWorld Sapphire. For whatever reason, I am able to book two seats in the Exit Row for myself and my wife virtually every time I fly, whether it’s AS or AA. With the extra leg room, I don’t need to “buy up” on flights within North America on flights of 6 hours or less. Now, if my upgrade clears, great! If it’s an upgrade to F — and there’s only one — I give it to my wife; if it’s an upgrade to PE, and I’m flying alone, it’s often the gate agent who warns me that I don’t really want it because it’s a middle seat (they’re right) — only if it’s an aisle or window seat will I move from the exit row. Very rarely will I bid for an upgrade domestically, and that’s only on westbound flights coast-to-coast. Internationally, I usually book us into J, so it’s not really an issue for me/us…
Besides, on four of five flights on AS that I’ve taken so far, my upgrade to F has cleared! And on the fifth, there was only one seat left and I insisted my wife take it.
And this is why I dropped to PPro a few years ago. It gets me OW Emerald status, MCE seats at purchase, and I can direct my spending elsewhere for something valuable like Hyatt Globalist or flexible points like UR or MR. And the same low chance of an upgrade.
@Gary, do you ever use miles to upgrade on Delta, or elsewhere, and if so, what do the miles need to be values at relative to the cash upgrade cost?
You self esteem is higher than mine. I use $50 an hour (block time) – assuming I have my exit row window to start with and am upgrading to a recliner.
Question I’ve been wondering about…is the upgrade offer the same price for everyone or do higher elites get lower offers?
I’m EP and I get a free upgrade maybe 40% of the time. I’ll pay if the price is reasonable for 2+ hour flight and IF there is a meal (insert airline food joke here). I get MCE anyway, so I get an aisle and a free drink so my price threshold is pretty low, like $50/hr.
I will say the pricing on the upgrades varies widely and it doesn’t seem to be based on availability (I’ve checked seat maps). I’ve seen offers of $800 or $900 for a three hour flight a month out.
I’d go with Gary’s price on upgrades. I fly two dozen times a year, but not with the same airline, so I never earn a status that gets me upgraded. I pay for long-haul business tix, but domestic first isn’t worth paying for, unless you get it cheap. That’s where these paid upgrades come in.
Maybe $20/hour for a 4+ hour flight. Maybe $40/hr for regular lie-flat international. Within the flying community that may seem low. But if airlines are offering $500 upgrades on a transatlantic, that means a vast majority of people wouldn’t pay that much.
I’ve been doing a lot of flying lately and I’ve never been offered one of these up sells.. Do I have to get on a list? Do I have to put my hand up and say I’d like one? How does this work?
I meanwhile refuse to give in and pay for a crappy domestic F product that isn’t worth money. And still clear 80% of my domestic AA upgrades
I have almost 2 million banked miles with Delta Sky Miles. As Delta miles are worthless for redemptions I use them to buy post-booking upgrades. I haven’t been in economy for 3 years. I value confirmed first-class for same-day change mostly. I typically pay 7,000-40,000 miles for each segment.
My rule is $50-60/hour but maybe I need to up it due to inflation. I will certainly be more inclined to buy a paid upgrade for a transcon or even a midcon that is 4+ hours.
That said, it is harder to justify if I already have an E+/C+ aisle seat, the extra seat width is nice but I’m sometimes blessed with an empty middle which is just as good. The free food and beers are the least of my concerns, particularly if I have to drive an hour after landing.
I’ve had the pre-order burger on AA twice recently (wish I could share photos, but there’s no upload option). The good news? They actually had it onboard both times I ordered—so points for that.
The burger itself is two sliders served with crinkle-cut fries, a side salad, and dessert. Don’t expect a hearty portion of beef—these are more snack-sized than anything and more bun than meat. The first time around, the sliders were decent, but on my second flight, the buns were noticeably overcooked.
They include condiment packets—ketchup, mustard, mayo, salt, and pepper. Surprisingly, the salads were the standout both times. Each flight featured a different type, and both were fresh and flavorful. The desserts also held up well.
Overall, it’s a passable option if you’re craving a snack, but don’t set your expectations too high for the burger itself. But I’d order it again given the other predictable options.
The burger that BA served on long-haul flights in the past was much better but it was a full sized burger not sliders. American should bring back the steaks they used to serve for dinner on the DFW-DCA route a long time ago but doubt that’ll happen.
Re upgrades, I had around a 86% upgrade rate for complimentary through 2018 as an EXP but obviously that’s no longer the case, even though I’m still EXP, as has been documented ad nauseam here. So, now for anything more than 2 hours, I’ll typically use miles or cash up front to get first/business (as many others have suggested here) vs. waiting to play the upgrade or bidding game. If it’s a short flight, I’ll go with economy (depending on price differential for economy/business) and averaging around 40% there on the complimentary upgrades in the past few years. But $70/hour sounds reasonable and everyone will have a different threshold depending on their situation.
I have only one upgrade success story: SIN to SFO to FLL upgraded from coach W fare to J and F for $550 plus 30k UA miles. 20 hours in the air. That was a good one.
Valuing your FC upgrade per hour of flying time? Don’t forget to factor in potential downtime sitting on the tarmac for up to 15 hours on AA
Upgrading for a “burger”? Sheesh.
As the Million Dollar Man says…. “EVERYBODY’S GOT A PRICE!!!”
If it allows me to skip food on the ground, and frees up 15-60 minutes in the process, that’s $100 right there.
@Gary “most frequent, high revenue customers…” An economy passanger rarely is a high revenue customer for an airline and generates minimal profit. If you are flying J, that is a different story and you already paid for the premium experience
Suckers paying for what you used to get for free. Airlines win.