Here’s What We Know A Trump Administration Will Mean For Travel

Donald Trump was a hotelier in addition to being a real estate developer, and has strong opinions on air travel, owing to his time owning the Eastern Airlines shuttle. The rebranded Trump Shuttle was a money-loser, hampered by the first Gulf War and skyrocketing fuel prices, and he couldn’t service the debt.

Ultimately Trump lost money on the deal and it was taken back by Citibank, who entered into a joint venture with US Airways to run it. That product became the American Airlines shuttle, which no longer operates as a separate product.

Trump also sought to take over American Airlines just a year into his foray as an airline operator. He likely never had financing for the offer, and may have been looking to simply make a trading profit on the American shares he did buy as a greenmailer (an amount below the SEC reporting threshold). He ultimately lost money on that, too, caught up in the 1989 Friday the 13th stock market mini-crash. Trump also had a failed online travel agency website, GoTrump.com.

Despite significant experience in the airline industry, and a first term experience on which to draw, I’m not sure we can confidently say how a Trump administration will play out in all areas of travel. That’s because Trump largely staffed his first administration with mainstream Republicans. He nominated former Labor Secretary Elaine Chao as Transportation Secretary.

This time may be different. The standard Republican line is less broadly pro-business now than it was eight years ago.

Tourism

Given the once and future President’s stances on immigration, we might see greater border control efforts not just focused on land borders but scrutiny of airport arrivals (perhaps targeted at arrivals from specific countries, which we saw during the first Trump administration). Efforts at reducing Visa backlogs may be de-prioritized. None of that is good for inbound tourism.

Tensions with China over trade won’t be supportive of greater recovery in U.S.-China travel, and flight levels that used exist prior to the pandemic. But we’re not headed down that path today! Flights between the U.S. and China remain significantly below 2019 levels, and that’s had an effect on transpacific airfares and seat availability generally. Of course these predictions are, again, much more speculative than similar suggestions in fall 2016.

More ‘tough talk’ in foreign policy may not be conducive to visa free travel and reduced tensions overall, which may not be supportive of greater travel.

It would be rather amazing if global tensions, visa restrictions, and border enforcement – combined with greater support for space travel given his relationship with Elon Musk – it was eventually easier to go to Mars than El Salvador?

Anti-Trust

There’s a lot of commentary expecting less anti-trust enforcement generally by a second Trump administration, but I’m not sure those commentators have been paying attention. That could be what happens, but the Republican Party has a newfound love for anti-trust and attacking business (especially social media companies). Vice President-elect JD Vance has praised Lina Khan’s efforts against business on multiple occasions.

Still, the Biden administration sued successfully to break up the American Airlines-JetBlue partnership and block JetBlue’s acquisition of Spirit. No doubt many potential combinations have been off the table, expecting to run into a buzzsaw of federal regulators. Although the administration went along with Alaska buying Hawaiian, given local support for the deal among Democrats in Hawaii and the troubled finances of that carrier as a standalone.

A new administration opens the possibility for another bite at the apple in airline partnerships like American-JetBlue and both airlines say they’re interested in reviving this partnership. We don’t know how receptive a Trump DOT and Justice Department will be even though they were last go-around (with DOT signing off in 2020).

We’ve also seen new developments in the industry since the Biden DOJ was last in court. Spirit Airlines is in a very different and more precarious position than it was when DOJ blocked JetBlue’s acquisition of the ultra-low cost carrier. Frontier might have had an easier time doing a deal for Spirit, if they go down that route, than JetBlue had anyway.


New York LaGuardia

And a return to American-JetBlue could have been in the cards with the new JetBlue management team in place. Recall that it was under the previous CEO that the airline walked away from challenging the district court ruling against the partnership, in favor of focusing on their acquisition of Spirit, even though that deal mostly made sense in the context of their partnership with American which created the need for planes and pilots to expand their presence in both New York and Boston.

The judge in the American-JetBlue case said that a partnership like what American has with Alaska would have been legal. We could see a revised partnership proposed, that doesn’t include the same schedule coordination as the original one, and new leadership at DOT and DOJ could be more amenable to it.

Air Traffic Control

The last time Trump was President he said he wanted to sell off the D.C. airports (a good idea!) and he proposed to reform air traffic control spinning it off out of the FAA into a non-profit with stakeholder board.

Air traffic control in the U.S. is hopelessly antiquated. While NavCanada went all electronic 20 years ago, the FAA won’t eliminate paper flight strips from a majority of its largest facilities until the 2030s. They’re bad at staffing, they’re bad at technology upgrades, and the current arrangement where the same agency is both the service provider and regulator (they regulate themselves) has serious safety implications.

Even splitting air traffic control service provision and regulation into separate agencies would be a start. Making it a non-profit function, as in much of the world including Canada (which performs better – and at scale, since they handle traffic over the North Atlantic), would allow the agency to issue bonds for technology upgrades rather than relying on the vagaries of annual congressional budgeting cycles.

The policy didn’t go anywhere during Trump’s first term. We do not know if he’ll have an appetite for taking another bite from that apple.

Boeing v. Airbus

There’s one thing that’s clear in the President-elect’s rhetoric, and that’s a favorability towards tariffs. That doesn’t mean we’ll see the extreme version of them discussed on the campaign trail. He can fall back on saying that was a negotiating position to get the victories he was after, but it’s not unreasonable to expect higher tariffs overall.

That’s not great for supply chain and costs for Boeing, even though Boeing may benefit from the administration acting on its behalf (pressuring allies to buy from them) and from tariffs on European aircraft.

On the other hand, the President may not be favorably inclined to associate himself with the Boeing brand until it first cleans up its quality assurance and delivery problems. Boeing, for its part, certainly learned a costly lesson negotiating over a new Air Force One contract on which they’ve already lost $2 billion on a $3.9 billion contract.

Nonetheless, to the extent they can get out of the President’s mental model as a ‘loser’ they’re likely to find favorable treatment from an administration that views mercantilist policies favorably. The intellectual backers of Trumpism see Airbus as a model for industrial policy.

Union Power

While union workers in legacy industries may broadly benefit from the imposition of tariffs on foreign goods (in the short-term), aviation union power is likely a big loser in the election. They’ll lose majority control of the National Mediation Board as the President appoints members of the 3-member mediation board, with no more than two members from the same party, so it will eventually flip to majority Republican.

Additionally, unions didn’t deliver the election for Democrats so may not be as important four years from now either.

Pilot unions are a different story – pilots skew Republican, and ALPA has already put out a positive statement about working with the Trump administration.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. Trump seems to be anti-cruise industry since most of the ships are owned through off shore situations and it almost killed the cruise lines during covid. Overall he will be better for Unions and business in general.

  2. If the US under Trump actually becomes as inward-looking, nativist, protectionist, isolationist, etc. as his ‘America First’ agenda suggests, this undeniably spells disaster for international air travel, both for inbound tourists to the US and also for Americans traveling abroad in world without a ‘global policeman’ anymore. Russia and China will likely take on new spheres of influence, making parts of Europe and Asia much less friendly for Westerners. I feel for the people of Ukraine, Taiwan, South Korea, and even Japan, who are all likely soon to be on their own.

  3. I would like to issue a challenge to posters: Let’s see if we can simply comment dispassionately and objectively on the potential impact of a Trump presidency on the travel and points industry. Is it possible for the us to avoid insults?

  4. Disagree on most counts.

    Tourism: Trump is against ILLEGAL immigration, not legal immigration, and not tourism. DHS not swamped dealing with 20M illegals means they can actually do their jobs better regarding visas. In addition, an end to the forever wars started due to Biden admin weakness will mean safer air travel. Clearing out the millions of illegals in tourist destinations like NYC will make it safer and more pleasant for tourists, and them out of hotels will increase room capacity for people who actually want to spend money here.

    Anti-Trust: A Trump DOJ will certainly not engage in abuse of anti-trust laws, like by pretending that merging the 6th and 7th largest competitors is monopolistic. No serious person can look back and say those were good decisions. The federal government is the one being anticompetitive anyway, by enshrining incumbents with slot rights that are a huge barrier to entry. I doubt anything will happen with that system, but you never know, if anyone could it would be Trump.

    Boeing v Airbus: Trump uses tariffs against adversaries to force them to act more favorably with the US in other areas. No doubt he will do that with Mexico, China, and the EU. Free trade is ideal, but only if it’s with friendly nations that don’t turn around and undermine you. The EU has been targeting US businesses with arbitrary billion dollar fines for years, subsidizing their own (like Airbus) while still benefiting from open access to our markets and the protection of our military. I expect Trump to push back on this.

  5. Defenestrating incompetent Mayor Pete is a good start.

    I expect Trump will appoint people who care about efficiency not platitudes. Unfortunately he is not likely to care about consumer rights so that will need to be pursued through litigation.

  6. @DaninMci, why do you think he’s after cruise ships? They had their biggest day in years today. And, if you believe as I do, people love cruise ships. Not everyone, but most people. Traveling brings people together, and people need people, just like Trump.

  7. I must agree with Mantis. Correct on all counts.
    When looking at how Trump is likely to behave in many situations, other than national security, you need to view it with a JOBS lense. If it will create solid US based jobs, Trump is likely to be in favor. If something means jobs and wealth moving overseas, Trump will oppose and he will use tariffs as a weapon to gain the upper hand.

  8. Gary needs to start sending feelers to become Associate Administrator for Airports – Federal Aviation Administration or Secretary of Transportation for Policy or something else.

    Let’s send Gary to Washington.

    I can vouch for Gary….he loves Trump! Award Gary a political appointment!!!

  9. Limits on interstate travel by women (which is a not a Constitutionally-guaranreed right and is already under legal attack).

    Lots beyond this narrowly-focused list. When the National Weather Service is eliminated? When the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, that so many in points are power users, is eliminated? The list is long and scope is wide.

  10. If there’s truly 20 million undocumented immigrants, and he really takes that on (not that he can staff up and get enough capacity in place to actually give them a hearing), that’s quite a bit of air charter service the government needs to purchase to GUA, SAL, PAP, etc.

    20 million / 150 pax per plane = 133,000 flights give or take. Then they need to fly empty northbound. So call it 266,000 flights, if he were to do it over 3 years that’s 89,000 flights a year, or about 250 deportation flights a day.

    Ballpark numbers, but that’s the order of magnitude here. You’re chartering the equivalent of a full airline larger than Hawaiian in terms of number of daily flights.

    Losing that much passenger capacity to the government would certainly increase fares.

  11. @Stefan Krasowski –

    While the Constitution doesn’t explicitly mention “interstate travel,” the right to move freely between states is a well-established principle in U.S. law affirmed by several Supreme Court cases under the Privileges and Immunities Clause and Commerce Clause.

    Crandall v. Nevada (1868) struck down a Nevada law imposing a tax on individuals leaving the state because states couldn’t restrict citizen movement across state lines.

    United States v. Guest (1966) held that there is a Constitutional right to travel from state to state.

    Shapiro v. Thompson (1969) held that states could not impose residency requirements to restrict welfare benefits. The Court found that the right to travel includes the right to migrate to another state and receive equal treatment as a resident.

    Saenz v. Roe (1999) struck down a California law that limited welfare benefits for new residents. The Court delineated three components of the right to travel: The right to enter and leave another state; the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than a hostile outsider; the right to become a resident of any state and enjoy the same privileges and immunities as other residents.

    Why do you expect the Trump administration to eliminate the CFPB? Republicans have historically opposed lots of things but (1) that opposition doesn’t itself translate to policy [and remember Congress will be closely divided] and (2) Trumpism is not traditional Republicanism – and has shifted the Republican party. It is far more populist, embracing active government in things like consumer protection and antitrust.

  12. Am I the only one who wants them to do the mass deportations. That should be good for the airlines right?

  13. Speaking of efficiency, can he finally ‘make the trains run on-time’ again? I’d like an American Shinkansen, please. The Acela is simply not good enough. Elon *clap clap* get on this!

  14. I agree with @Mantis here; there is no evidence that the new administration will negatively impact travel/tourism in any way (unless your idea of a vacation is a hike through the Darien Gap with 10,000 of your best friends from TdA). If anything, you’ll likely see a more business and tourist friendly DOT, leading to better efficiencies regarding air traffic and TSA checkpoints.

    I traveled extensively during the last Trump administration and intend to do so during this one. If anything, you have have more confidence that your government has your back in a foreign country than is now the case.

    Lastly, you’ll likely see movement regarding B6, NK and F9 on mergers or JVs that they know would have been denied during Biden.

  15. I think this. I think that. I think something else. I think another thing. Now that I got that out of my system, I’ll just wait and see what actually happens.

  16. What we have been told so far by the incoming administration::

    * Local police will be federalized.
    * Federalized police will gather the undocumented.
    * It will be bloody.
    * Large camps will be established to eliminate those without documentation.
    * if the get enough votes (presidency, both chambers of congrss, the supreme court…
    which looks like it will be there) then birthright citizenship will be revoked, so first generation Americans may also be “denaturalized”.

    History has shown us: we have seen this in the past with the Japanese internment of American citizens, so eliminating the people that build your homes, cut the grass, and clean your country will be easy.

    So, some target demographic tourism may go up, but for those who are WWII buffs. For the losing side.

    But if you think people will want to come here with that… People will choose better places to go, especially with what will likely be global condemnation of those policies.

    The rest of us will have to deal woth triple the cost for fruits and vegetables, and imported good (which, if you look around, is nearly everything in your life).

    Enjoy! This is the bad place!

  17. @NameWithheld: I enjoyed your TikTok vid where you screamed for 36 straight seconds. That was awesome.

  18. @AngryFlier There is such a thing as a sore winner. Oh, how quickly we forget the so-called ‘patriots’ who ‘screamed’ and were convicted of actual crimes that they committed at the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Lucky for them as they all may soon receive pardons, unless Trump forgets about them, too. By contrast, expressing disappointing with an election outcome, or having a mere different opinion on policy, is not a crime (yet).

    @Name Withheld Trump also said he would ‘build the wall’ and that ‘Mexico would pay for it’ which did not happen either, so we’ll see what actually gets done soon enough. I get that this time may be different as he seemingly has full control of the federal government and no guard rails. One thing is for sure, the super rich and large corporations are about to get tax cuts and greater deregulation. I agree with you: this is their short-term gain, and our collective long-term loss. History will not be kind to this era (but that really depends on who writes it). Good luck to us.

  19. I’m a little lazy, so could someone keep track of the silly predictions like Stefan made. I despise Trump, but I think it will be fun to review the silly predictions (e.g., we will no longer vote or have a free press) that anti-Trumpers make in January 2029.

  20. I’m optimistic on the future of travel under a Trump administration.
    Even though he encountered some failures, he has valuable travel industry experience.
    We learn from our failures to do better.

    1) Trump has complained the USA has “3rd world airports”. This suggests he wants to improve the quality of our airports and possibly our antiquated air traffic controller systems.

    2) He wants to green light drilling for petroleum and have us become the world’s largest energy exporter. This means lower fuel prices, lower airfares, lower transportation costs for goods, and more discretionary income for Americans that we can spend on travel.

    3) Trump policies will result in a stronger USD over other currencies. This means Americans will have stronger purchasing power when visiting other countries. The Euro fell right after Trump’s victory.

    @Name Withheld the reason you are anxious is because you have been brainwashed by the Lying Legacy Media. When they read their globalist provided script of “Trump is a threat to our democracy” what they really mean is Trump is a threat to their Corrupt Bureaucracy!

    Try consuming independent media that was founded after 1995. Compare the news sources and ask yourself which source is more credible.

  21. There are airline seats available TODAY for any of you wishing to leave the country.
    Get onboard!

  22. @Onepatriot77

    Why do you doubt Trump’s own words?

    1) who & how will gather the undocumented – from Axios – “Former President Trump will use local police to implement his plan for the mass deportation of undocumented migrants if he’s elected, the Republican primary frontrunner said during an interview on Fox News Thursday….
    * Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity that he would give “immunity” to police “to give the job they have to do” and said the officers understand who the migrants are.
    * “It’s going to be the local police are going to turn them over, and we’re going to have to move them back to their country,” he added.

    2) bloody – Donald Trump Warns Getting Migrants Out Will Be a ‘Bloody Story’
    Sep 07, 2024

    Former President Donald Trump intensified his rhetoric on immigration on Saturday, warning that removing migrants from the United States would be a “bloody story” if he’s reelected in November.

    Trump’s remarks were made during a campaign rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin, and align with the Republican National Committee’s newly released 2024 platform, which calls for aggressive immigration enforcement and mass deportations.

    “And ya know getting them out will be a bloody story,” Trump told supporters on Saturday.

    3) camps – “On day one, we will begin the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Freeland, Michigan, on Wednesday.

    Stephen Miller, Trump’s former senior White House policy adviser and hardline immigration guru who is likely to be central in a second term, told the rightwing activist Charlie Kirk in a podcast interview that the plans were going to be pushed through. “I want everybody to understand this is going to happen. If President Trump is back in the Oval Office in January, this is going to commence immediately.”

    So.

    Either you haven’t been listening to what the President Elect has been saying, or you are calling him a liar, or you really don’t know what you voted for.

    IF you heard him And if you DON’T think he will do it, then why WOULD you elect him?

    10 million people is 62,500 deportation flights, assuming 160 / flight.

    That’s the air traffic load of 40 days of outbound flights from Denver, non-stop the whole day. (Without any other departures)

    This will cost billions and billions, as well as a massive tax loss of the FICA that those folks pay every payday. And that will affect Soc Sec & Medicare funding.

    All that to get rid of people that pick your fruit, cut up your chickens, and clean your homes.

    I can’t wait to watch him completely fold on that.

  23. @ Name Withheld. You have obviously missed the part about Trump giving illegal immigrants the opportunity to “self-deport.” Depending on the penalties for not complying, that program just might decrease your projects of 62,500 deportation flights/sailings.
    On your first point, “People will choose better places to go.” Exactly what country would this better place to go be? Please specify what country is willing to accept immigrants like those that have crashed our southern border.

  24. @ Name Withheld
    I do NOT doubt Trump’s own words.
    I DO doubt his words when they are being deceptively edited and distorted by Lying Legacy Media sources.

    Here’s what I know:

    Trump’s victory is good for Americans and good for the country.

    His victory is very bad for the globalists and illegal aliens that are trespassing in our country.
    Mass deportations? YES, it will absolutely happen. Tom Homan, former Director of ICE will run it.
    Bloody? Mostly no. Yet probably in some cases involving armed gang members not willing to be deported peacefully.

    Globalists wanted to destroy America from within by overloading our social services with illegals.
    Their plan to cripple America and get the USA out of their way has failed.

    President Trump is in favor of LEGAL immigration not illegal immigration and yes there’s a big difference. Illegals should go back home and build a life or get to the back of the line and apply the legal way. I look forward to the reduced traffic, reduced crime, and massive tax savings by deporting all the illegals back home. As American citizens, we have EVERY RIGHT to be picky and choosy on who is allowed to come here. It’s asinine to allow millions of unvetted people into our country. Our citizens, our quality of life, and national sovereignty must be protected.

  25. @Onefoxparrott – yeah?
    Well, that’s like, your opinion, man.

    And it’s not yours that counts.

    It’s just Trump, 24/7, and his billionaires buddies that were fawning and bending over backwards to congratulate him tofay.

    Globalist. Go tell it to his pal putin, comrade.

  26. Name Withheld. If you seek facts then I suggest you quit watching MSNBC. They are no longer even pretending that they are not the propaganda machine of the Liberal DNC. As biased as CNN is, MSNBC makes CNN look like the arbiter of truth.
    Still waiting for that “better place to go” you’ve referred to since it’s your opinion that is evidently the only one that counts.
    Ken D. Please cite any banking institution that has complained about any Trump controlled organization filing bankruptcy. It doesn’t happen. Stop “parroting” the MSM/DNC lies . . .

  27. I think it’s bizarre how people think Trmp will obey laws or SCOTUS won’t immediately change rulings for him.

  28. I agree with @Gary – we need to sell off publicly held assets like DCA airport so they can be run cheaply and efficiently like LHR… oh wait, that’s an awful example, largely because it’s an awful idea. Heathrow ALWAYS wants to screw passengers out of more money so the holding company can earn more profit from normal people.

  29. I’m no fan of the incoming administration. His foreign policy is unlikely to be good for the long term prospects of the US or the world. That being said, it won’t all be on him. The post-WW2 global order is hanging on by a thread. He will probably just accelerate the inevitable in terms of a multipolar spheres of influence environment (with quite a bit of violence). Russia and China both want this. It will be bad for Europe and eventually us. His fixation on flattery in particular makes him ill-suited for geopolitical negotiation, and he, due to his ego, won’t take a back seat to anyone. But whatever, we are working on borrowed time here anyway. We will feel marginally more pain (most of which will be years downstream from the end of his administration), but we are in for some anyway regardless.

    With regard to tariffs and domestic work, I actually think the Trump administration will be in alignment with some of the bigger initiatives of the Biden administration. In particular, the moves to secure domestic production of critical national security and industry products will accelerate. This has been a rare point of bipartisan agreement. The tariffs stuff was always bluster and bluff. Trump, more than anything, wants to be desperately liked. Spiking inflation in his own country won’t be the move. And it isn’t like the man hasn’t flip flopped on policy.

    The immigration stuff will probably make travel harder, as some our allies will react to the harassment their citizens are likely to face coming to this country. Trump himself probably is pro-tourism, but the problem is that his inner circle and most fervent flatterers are a bunch of goons. There will be some ham-fisted regulations that result in awful deportations, or at least harassment, of legitimate visitors and foreign workers. They won’t implement this policy in a sensitive way (just like the atrocious child separation policy from the last go-round). The pressure from the business community (which loves access to lots of labor without the entitlement mentality of American citizens) will temper the worst of this stuff. But expect some pretty awful news stories pretty much non-stop. It will alienate us more from our democratic allies abroad. And Trump, fleeing to anyone that won’t finger wag at him, will spend more time with illiberal leaders that won’t feel the need to push for any sort of moral behavior on the part of the US government.

    And I’m sure Eric Adams, Trump’s new democratic friend (and fellow grifter) would love to serve as an intermediary in our closer relationship with the Turkish government in exchange for a pardon.

  30. @Christian – MWAA has been a corrupt and inept organization, but that’s not my argument. With $35 trillion in federal debt, retaining ownership is folly.

  31. Let’s not forget the foreign policy effects on international route networks if Trump does resolve the Ukraine and Israel conflicts. We could see a reopening of Russian airspace, which should make some of the longer-haul routes between the US and Asia, especially on UA (think EWR-HKG, EWR-BOM, etc.), feasible again. Similarly, we could see Israel service come back if that gets resolved. Not sure about China routes, it’s harder to guess how that evolves.

    What do you think, Gary?

    Please keep replies on-topic, everyone.

  32. I’m checking back and still waiting on Name Withheld’s answer because I’d really like to know where that “People will choose better places to go,” is (since apparently his opinion is the only one that counts). Y’all feel free to name a few countries (better places) that the “celebritives” are moving to since Trump was elected. It seems to me that immigration in America has always exceeded emigration. this was always apparent on the ORD-DEL-ORD AA nonstops.

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