Insider Trading Success: 2,000% Return Betting On Alaska-Hawaiian Deal [Roundup]

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About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. Your View from the Wing information on ancient public toilets reminded me of the various Marriott Hotel & Resort properties across the United States and worldwide. The ancient public toilets never clogged or overflowed with poop resulting in brown chunks floating down the soggy and squishy carpeted corridor leading to your guest room. Accordingly, nobody was ever Bonvoyed using an ancient public toilet.

  2. as I have said for years, AA’s TATL and TPAC systems don’t work from a financial standpoint.
    It is also nice to see confirmation that DL has handedly outperformed UA over the Atlantic in profits and even post-pandemic the two have been close.

    He didn’t include Latin America but Delta outperformed United in Latin profit margin as well.

    DL simply makes more money on a smaller international route system, a fact that really bothers a whole lot of UA fans.

  3. The only reason those things can be called “stroopwafels” is that the word is not copyrighted.

  4. Tim – how come when he writes stuff about AA you don’t criticize his numbers? But when it’s DL you then accuse him of not accurately reporting the facts? Enilria is using numbers to make an argument you are happy to agree with in this case. I have no dog in this fight. I hate AA management. But when Enilria does it for DL (like with its SEA “hub”) you accuse him of ignoring data. Maybe he is doing the same here – I.e. using selected data to make an argument he wants to make. Again, there is no doubt AA is weak TPAC / TATL… but you like Enilria when he supports your preconceived notions, and attack him when he doesn’t. This is why people accuse you of being a Delta fanboy. Try being less defensive about Delta and people would respect you more.

  5. And yes Tim, I know he is reporting DOT data. Just trying to make a point. Also, airlines are notorious for spinning data in the best possible light (which still does not look good for AA). They can (not always, but can) account for expenses to make certain routes, hubs, regions, look better or worse than they actually are. No doubt AA is weakest of the 3 now. Its debt load is a large reason. It is racing down towards being a domestic-focused airline. But again, you love when someone like Enilria supports your beliefs but attack him when he doesn’t. The truth is usually more grey than you care to admit.

  6. An interesting analysis of DHCP leasing and the airplane solution to not getting a lease. With free Wi-Fi being available on more flights, more people are going to use it so the maximum number of people connected should also increase to limit the number of times that the system needs to be reset.

  7. it is precisely because he is reporting the same DOT data that I and you can access that there really isn’t an issue. It’s public info.
    and the story is not that AA underperforms DL and UA across the Atlantic and Pacific but that AA hasn’t really turned things around – which explains why they have no interest in taking on more widebodies. They will try the A321XLRs but AA has a history of hoping fleet changes will improve their financial performance.

    And what is most noteworthy is by how much DL outperforms UA on TATL and even matches them over the Pacific – which I have pointed out repeatedly and am one of the few to do so.

    My criticism of this data about SEA is that he dismissed his lack of access to international data as insignificant – even though he disclosed it. Further, so many people took it to mean that DL lost/lose money in SEA which is not what he said.
    And I also noted that, if you believe internet lore, DL supports a bunch of money-losing coastal hubs with massive profits from their “core 4” interior US hubs.
    And my retort – which no one has bothered to explain – is how DL has managed to turn 4 hubs into such massive profit centers but AA and UA cannot do the same.

    The simple reality is that DL runs a better business and operation and this data shows it – and I have been citing it for years

    I have repeatedly said that I think AA mgmt has a better handle on where they are financially and are committed to fixing it while it is UA mgmt and fankids that live in denial of the fact that UA really is not as profitable on the parts of its network where it touts than it is.

    add in that this is all before DL began its winter buildup in Latin America and DL is on the verge of challenging a whole lot of assumptions about US carrier strengths

  8. Getting back to more important and interesting topics than Tim Dunn brownosing Delta again.

    The wifi analysis was great, and helpful, pointing out two solutions to fixing DHCP lease problems, 1) Getting the flight attendant to reset, or 2) shorter DHCP leases. However, now that he’s posted pictures of the Internet Reset button, it certainly raises a 3rd, faster solution- go push the button!

  9. so it’s ok for Gary to cite someone else’s article using the same data that I have talked about for years – it is not new by any means – but I am not supposed to note the full story?

    In fact, AA loses money flying the Atlantic and Pacific with their Latin system generating a profit that slightly offsets their transatlantic and transpacific losses.
    Delta and United both have over $1 billion in profits on their international systems for the first 3 quarters but Delta’s international network is generating higher profits. Although United has higher profits across the Pacific and to Latin America, Delta’s margin in both regions is higher and its transatlantic profit is so much larger than United’s that it puts Delta’s total global profits higher than United’s.
    Domestically, Delta made twice as much as United and American’s domestic system is more profitable than United’s.

  10. Gene,
    someone wrote an article extracted from the data that I also reference and Gary covered it. so, yes, someone cares EVEN IF YOU DON’T.

    I would far rather read data-driven articles than anecdotes about bad passengers or read (your) whining about the lack of giveaways TO YOU.

  11. For the insider trading part, if you believe as I do you might be wise to be careful to understand the difference between correlation and causality. Just because something random happens never shows intent, in fact, it just reinforces that luck exists.

    It’s also like saying that since more people die always because ice cream sales are at the highest (and it’s true!), we should ban selling ice cream to prevent more deaths.

    Where the real reason why more people die is because the weather is HOT and more people drown in water and ice cream sales are high because it’s hot.

  12. The AA profit margin comparison is tough to compare because they have too many joint ventures. I suppose that if the JV partners were included with their competition on another chart it might be easier to gauge how much is American itself versus AA and partners together.

  13. Christian,
    joint venture revenue is reported on the income statement and allocated to the global region where the JV operates.

  14. You may have valid points Dunn but you turn people off, and are oblivious to it. So those points get lost in your noise.

  15. no, you just simply don’t want to hear the truth and shoot any messenger that dares tell you that truth.
    And I have the courage to use my own name while you as a spineless stone thrower from the sidelines don’t stand for anything except havoc. It is precisely because of the anonymous mockings that I continue – but you never demonstrated you had any intelligence.

    None of which changes that American hasn’t been able to make its transatlantic and transpacific systems profitable while United burns a whole lot of jet fuel flying a whole bunch of airplanes and brags about things that don’t matter to anyone but Pan Am but fails at the number one task it should be – financial leadership.

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