Iceland has become the latest of many countries to remove pandemic-era restrictions. One Mile at a Time says they’re “encourag[ing] people to get infected.”
I don’t think that’s right, even though their Minister of Health says infection is necessary for herd immunity since current-generation vaccines aren’t doing enough to limit spread of Omicron (mRNA vaccines are roughly 50% effective against symptomatic disease but 90% effective against hospitalization).
And lifting restrictions isn’t a “let ‘er rip” strategy as some have argued, either. It’s simply that the condition that made restrictions make sense early in the pandemic are no longer in effect today.
There are essentially 3 reasons to require precautions (at the societal level):
- We think we can stamp out the virus completely. Early on we thought that might be possible, it no longer is. It’s not even possible, really, for China because the virus exists throughout the world and eventually makes it in (and they have land borders).
- We need to prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, so want to delay and spread out infections. This isn’t about keeping people from getting infected, it’s about keeping them from getting infected all at once. When hospitals get slammed, care for each patient becomes harder and there just aren’t enough resources (mostly staff) to treat everyone, so decisions get made about who is given help and who dies.
- we want to hold off as many infections until we can offer better protection and treatments. It’s much better to get Covid-19 later than it was at the start of the pandemic when we didn’t know what we were dealing with or really how to treat it, didn’t have monoclonal antibodies or effective small molecule inhibitors, and didn’t have vaccines.
At the start of the pandemic the Swedish view was ‘let’s get all of the young people infected at schools’ and then they’d build up herd immunity. The belief was young people weren’t at significant risk, and if all young people got it then they’d be protected without as many bad outcomes for older Swedes. They didn’t do a good enough job protecting the elderly from catching Covid, though, and the country performed worse than neighboring countries but certainly not worse than Europe as a whole.
Ultimately the idea of herd immunity is harder than a lot of people thought initially.
- It hinges on the number of people with immunity at any given period of time. If Covid-19 was one and done ‘forever’ then each infection gets you closer. But if immunity wanes, then you need constant re-infections to stay there. Variants can lead to immune evasion.
- It’s not binary, where you have it or you don’t. Infections go in waves, and communities are stable for periods of time. Rates of infection slow down as there are fewer people to infect, but doesn’t go away completely, and can start back up.
There was talk initially of 70% or so of the population needing to get infection to reach herd immunity. But that number hinges on how fast-spreading the virus is. New variants from Alpha to Delta to Omicron have meant faster and faster spread, which means ever-greater percentages of the community would need to be immune to reach herd immunity.
We’re not reaching true herd immunity in the sense that so many people are immune that the virus has no place to go and ceases to spread entirely. Instead there’s a substantial wall of immunity from prior infection and vaccination, and the infections that do happen are – on average – less serious.
Omicron has a much harder time getting into the lungs than earlier variants. When the virus stays in the upper airways it is less dangerous (which is not to say it isn’t dangerous).
We have vaccines that are prevent bad outcomes for most people. We have treatments that are highly effective becoming increasingly available.
As a result, and in general, hospitals right now aren’t being overwhelmed and there’s no longer a reason to delay infection because ‘getting infected later means better outcomes because of better available treatments’ (though that may still be true along some margins). We’re not eliminating SARS-CoV-2 from the world.
The reasons for societal-level restrictions are no longer justified by the facts on the ground. Of course if you are immuno-compromised, or brainwashed by anti-vaccine conspiracists, take special precautions. If you’re going to be around immuno-compromised people, take special precautions. N95 masks are widely available, learn how to fit and wear them properly.
Of course if conditions change again then restrictions could make sense. If there are new variants that are more dangerous, and especially if those variants evade immunity, such that hospitals become overwhelmed or we need to delay for new tailored treatments, it makes sense to reconsider what strategies to use. But right now, for the world we face today, restrictions make little sense in most contexts.
This is total foolishness. No one should want or attempt to get infected by any virus. Even with the vaccination, only a fool would want to get sick. We are finally just learning what some of the longer term medical effects some people will be living with. And some of these very well could change a persons quality of life. So NO ONE should put themselves in any possition that would make it easier to get infected. At the same time, I do believe that travel is possible. Actually, I know that it is, because I never stopped traveling. I simply change how and where to travel. I still do not eat in restaurants during their peak times when it is impossible to sit away from other. I still do not attend stadium or arena events where it is difficult to do the same. I travel to more outdoor destinations where we can explore the country away from major cities. I wear a mask when I enter building and cannot social distance. And I am okay that others do not. They are not my problem. I will probably continue to use the safe guards that I have put in place for myself for some time. Even when they tell me that they are not necessary. Because only I can protect myself. I have plans during the next year to be in many different parts of the world. I’m not going to let the virus change that. Right now, I’m more worried about what is happening between Russia and Ukraine.
“It’s simply that the condition that made restrictions make sense early in the pandemic are no longer in effect today.”
The restrictions never made sense. I can’t believe people still haven’t figured this out.
@Gary – Great article in the Atlantic about the ongoing pandemic. Premise – basically Covid will be less like the flu and more akin to smoking. Just with accelerated timelines on hospitalization/death.
Getting hospitalized with Covid has basically become a choice for almost all people. Time to change the financial incentives/disincentives around treatment. Treatments should stop being subsidized by the government and people who choose to take risks should have to bear the financial consequences of their actions. Just like smoking, it should be up to the actuaries to model and for insurance companies to pass increased costs based on risk. (“Freedom” doesn’t mean being free from consequences of actions)
The logical fallacy arguments will abound around obesity, drinking, and other health related negative choices – but there is no 2-3 injection treatment that makes people lose weight or lowers chance of diabetes buy a factor of 50. (If there was, it would be the most profitable and popular medication of all time)
How do you know that the vaccines are 90% effective at preventing hospitalization? Nothing we have been told about vaccines and covid has been correct. Were hospitalization rates inflated becasue of the financial incentives? Are more recent strains of the virus less virulent? or is it the vaccine that is reducing hospitalization rates? How have free countries or states that implemented limited or no restrictions done versus full authoritarian restrictions? How about Florida vs. New York? Spain vs. Norway? I thought this was about “science?”
Do what you think is best. Wear 5 masks if it makes you happy. Get 5 jabs. Stay home. or live your life.
RJB is right on, especially the 2nd paragraph. Life is way too short to be controlled by unelected, out-of-control Government bureaucrats, especially Fauci. And now Bill Gates, the esteemed world renown epidemiologist, is telling the masses when the pandemic will be over. What a joke!! And the masses listen to Gates’ nonsense!!
We *can* stamp out the virus completely, and what that looks like is global natural immunity such that future waves are no more serious than the common cold. This is within our reach if we just stop taking injections and come out of hiding.
Gary-
Much of this post is intellectualizing the fact that the public never took the steps necessary to reach herd immunity. A third of the population not fully vaccinated, that much or more playing games with masks and social separation. The science and medical people said from the start we’d need to get to 80-90% on this and we never got close.
So now we wait for one of two outcomes. One-we get a true vaccine that protects 100% from infection for, say, a year, two years, etc. Like polio, chicken pox. What we have now are inhibitors, not inoculators.
Two-we get a very contagious and virulent strain-think a 5 or 10% death rate.
Restrictions need to be lifted in the USA. Anyone who thinks that this virus isn’t around for a long, long time is fooling themselves. Spend a week travelling around China. Observe their total lack of concern for the people. Interesting things will always be bombarding the world from China. We need to face reality … the government just don’t care about the people. We need plans and education to keep Americans healthy … that won’t happen with a bunch of mindless restrictions.
Well of course I mean that the government just DOESN’T care about the people. My comment above posted itself before I was done proof-reading it.
2James N
The only moron that hasn’t figured it out is you, hiding behind your front door.
Apparently over 935,000 deaths and rising from Covid isn’t enough for you.
Jimmy, what’s your Science specialty? Another “Chump Science Genius”.
I disagree with many of the comments here. Science has been correct, but the virus has changed/mutated and will change and mutate in the future. Vaccines have saved lives and the fortunate people who have lived through infection have built up some immunity. We have learned what works (small sacrifice of wearing a mask has significantly reduced infection against Covid and other air born viruses.) We are now at a point where the probability of death is approaching the probability of dying in a car crash. We know driving in cars causes premature death, but we allow it because the numbers are small. The current restrictions will help limit death from Covid, but as the probability is drastically changed (in some part because of the Omicron strain) it is time to start lifting many of the restrictions.
I for one am eagerly awaiting the time when I will not need to be Covid tested to enter the US or travel abroad. A current huge challenge to travel especially with change/cancellation fees.
I find that once a person gets COVID they don’t seem to be as worried about whether everyone else gets it, because either they recover and don’t want to be the only one, or they die and have nothing more to say on the matter.
Sorry, Rog, but you’re little more than a “useful idiot”, who blindly adheres to the nonsense, lies and edicts pushed out by our “leaders” and their lackeys in the MSM. Your advancement of the bs 935,000 figure is all the proof we need.
Go out and get some sun and fresh air.
To all who keep insisting that the current crop of Cellular Genetic Therapies, which do NOT qualify as being legacy vaccines, such as Pfizer/BNT, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, etc are such great contributors towards “herd immunity,” please explain WHY exhibiting NEGATIVE Vaccine Efficacy (VE) over subsequent months after getting jabbed is helpful towards that goal?
Negative VE means that those who got jabbed end up being MORE susceptible to getting infected with COVID-19 than those who never got jabbed …
“If there are new variants that are more dangerous, […] it makes sense to reconsider what strategies to use.”
Sorry, but statements like that just allows them leave the door open indefinitely for indefinite restrictions. The transition from viewing the pandemic as an endemic needs to be finite.
@James N
Jimmy boy, I’m out everyday not hiding behind my front door. So, more than 935,000 haven’t died of Covid. Where did you get your Science degree, from Chump university?
StrictlyFacts – may you please end up on a ventilator due to being a strident misinformation-spreading anti-vaxxer…karma sure is a b!tch
@UA-NYC — ROFLMAO! There you go *Again* with your *Inane* ad hominem attacks that say absolutely *Nothing* of substance … and you *Still* have *Not* been able to refute what I had posted before, despite your many desperately *Failed* attempts to do so! What does that tell us?