Chris McGinnis writes that it’s time to stop traveling given the Covid-19 wave we’re experiencing in the United States. And there are certainly many people who shouldn’t travel right now.
Furthermore, there’s not much reason to go to a lot of places. You aren’t going to attend a large indoor concert or conference, go out to dinner in many parts of the country, and California hotels aren’t even supposed to accept non-essential workers.
McGinnis argues,
COVID-19 spreads when people move around and breathe each other’s air, so let’s take a collective step back. Those plans to drive home or somewhere else and share air with family, friends or strangers? Nix them. You might be saving your life, or someone else’s, by just staying put. Not forever, but for now.
But let’s be clear, this advice probably should apply to some people and not all people.
- Shouldn’t the third of the country that’s already had it be ok to travel? The CDC says we’ve only caught 1 in 8 Covid-19 cases so 15 million confirmed U.S. infections translates to 120 million people who have already had the virus, or 36% of the country. That’s order of magnitude, perhaps it’s just a quarter of the country. But there’s a materially large portion of the country that isn’t at risk from the virus and is unlikely to be spreading it. We don’t know how long immunity lasts but for most people it’s probably at least a year, even if antibodies wane earlier (t-cells will trigger the production of more).
- Shouldn’t the vaccinated be ok to travel? Vaccinations could start this weekend, and 20 million Americans could be vaccinated within weeks. It’ll be mostly health care workers and powerful politicians who are more important than you and I. But if you’ve taken the Pfizer vaccine and certainly within weeks of having the second dose (though the FDA says you’ve got some protection after just the first dose!) you shouldn’t worry about traveling. It hasn’t been proven impossible for someone that’s vaccinated to spread the virus but it’s highly unlikely.
- Travel doesn’t ‘introduce the virus’ to places it’s already spreading wildly. The virus is already spreading rapidly in much of the country. Adding incremental cases in those places doesn’t suddenly create community spread. There’s an obligation, I think, not to get sick in places where hospital systems are already at capacity however. But what if you’re living somewhere that hospitals are at capacity, and traveling to some place where they aren’t? Aren’t you then doing something responsible for the health care system?
- Many travelers are more responsible than non-travelers. Surely if you self-quarantine and test prior to travel and limit your exposure footprint on arrival you are less likely to be spreading the virus than the average American. How is travel under those circumstances a moral problem, unless the argument is that most people in the country are acting immorally – and then the criticism likely loses its force?
The concern that someone, somewhere might spread the virus is relevant in places where it’s still possible to contain the virus – mostly small island nations, though even large ones like Australia – but this doesn’t describe the U.S., Europe or South America.
There’s some level of risk when traveling (as when staying in your current city), you aren’t going to reduce it to zero where there’s widespread community transmission, but that can’t be the goal under the current circumstances. If it was what we were shooting for we’d be going ‘full Wuhan’ in this country and we aren’t. Instead states are generally imposing the least amount of restrictions possible consistent with not overwhelming hospitals. We’ve been living with some level of risk, like in kind though elevated compared to non-pandemic times.
So what should we do? Avoid large indoor gatherings and prolonged close contact with others to the extent we can. We want to avoid crowded places, closed spaces, and close proximity to others. I’m not so much worried about planes (where the risk of transmission is not zero) because of HEPA air filtration and downward airflow. But be vigilant getting to and through the airport. Wear masks – but ditch the cloth masks, N95s are far more available than they once were. Learn to fit and use them properly. Limit your exposure footprint. One way to do that is not traveling, but travelers aren’t necessarily exposed to more people than those who aren’t traveling.
If you skip travel, stay at home, and have your neighbors over for holiday festivities you’re net net probably doing something statistically worse for the pandemic than traveling somewhere with your own household and visiting outdoor sites. And if you’ve already had the virus recently, or been vaccinated against it, you can skip the moralizing and make responsible plans. The focus should be on how to be responsible rather than moralizing against all travel, telling people to stay home so then they gather with their neighbors locally.
Many of you will want to criticize this post harshly in the comments, but avoid mood affiliation and show your work!
I’d agree with the 2nd and 3rd bullets.
On the first, it may be true that 1/3 of the country has had it, but if there are only 15M that have tested positive for the virus or antibodies, then it’s only those 15M that are safe to travel. We don’t want everyone who “had a bad cold in February” assuming they had it and are now safe.
On the last point, I think the question is, what do you do once at your destination? I think the caution is for people who have spent months limiting indoor time only to their own household, now traveling to visit relatives and spending time with them – cross-contaminating the two pods in case one person has recently contracted the virus.
285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to date in the USA.
2,566 deaths yesterday (Dec 8).
Source: CDC
Three to five odds says this guy is still traveling.
Gary, I respect your opinion.
I don’t agree with it, but I think some of your points are valid.
But I also don’t expect anything different from a travel expert, who pushes travel products/services for commissions.
The proof is in the pudding: are you traveling? how about your daughter?
Are you putting your money where your mouth is?
@Monte Poster – what commissions do you think I’m earning on the purchase of travel? I mean I could, but I never embed commissionable links to airlines for instance. If you think I’m wrong, say what you think I’m wrong about, that’s much stronger than impugning my motives!
Am I traveling? (1) I haven’t had the virus, and haven’t been vaccinated, the two key groups I say shouldn’t be shy about their travel. (2) My business travel is zero right now. (3) I have an Airbnb booked with my wife and daughter next week. (4) One major limit on our family travel is her school’s protocols which require 5 days at home followed by a negative test after any trip.
Good point about travel substituting for socializing indoors with friends and family. The key is you have to travel to somewhere warm where you can be outside, and where you don’t know anyone.
Travel isn’t a big virus spreader. Being indoors unmasked with other people is.
And we have a new winner for the most irresponsible VFTW article yet.
Gary you are not a public health expert. You are not an epidemiologist. Stop acting like you know what you are talking about.
@Gary
Thanks for replying to my comment.
I’m sorry, but I was under the impression that you generated commissions from the credit card offers posted on the site; credit card offers that facilitate trips or travel that would normally be out of range for the average person. Clearly, I’ve misunderstood your business model if that’s not the case.
Insofar as to your limited travel, we all have our reasons for traveling or not traveling. I would have included kids as a significant reason for why it’s not time to travel. (By the way, I have kids too). But, in all fairness, what’s the difference between taking your daughter our of pre-school for 2 weeks because of travel vs 2 weeks and 5 five days? Kind of splitting hairs, don’t you think?
Anyways, I appreciate the friendly discussion. Just felt compelled to share my reactions to your article.
Doesn’t help when ~40% of the country follows the Superspreader In Chief and his cronies’ bad behaviors like lemmings, and doesn’t give an F about their fellow citizens.
Well, I just spent and extended weekend in Cozumel where I encountered less people then on a typical trip to a supermarket. I will also travel again in 10 days for leisure. This fall my mother who is 85 years old decided to visit her homeland in Europe. How can I argue with my mother? The major challenge was to arrange her travel. She ended flying TK through IST. Now she is back to US and she is fine.
If you look, none of the obvious measures like stay-at-home orders, masks, travel, curfews, and numerous “task forces” stopped Covid-19 from spreading in US. There is little evidence that stopping travel 100% now would even move the needle. But I certainly love the ease and decreased cost of airport parking, half-empty planes and the upgrades that clear, and excellent hotel rates in many places. The only downside is a decreased service.
TIL: Mood Affiliation.
Looking forward to our upcoming Xmas vacation, we will spread some cheers and love to the phx/flg small businesses and then carry it over to Isla Mujeres in February.
If it pisses off the snowflakes I’m all in.
@Bob – again we have a complaint about a post without actually specifying anything you’ve identified incorrect here.
@Monte Poster – I don’t think anyone needs to travel now, for the holidays or in the spring to get a rewards credit card. In fact the miles you earn aren’t going to be available for travel in the next couple of months. I don’t think anyone would disagree that the world is going to be a lot different a year from now than it is today, so I guess I just don’t see the connection between whether someone that’s already had the virus or been vaccinated travels today and whether earning credit card rewards for a future trip makes sense.
Gary, I agree with Monte in that you do a significant amount of promotion for air travel (I’ve commented on at least 8 of these articles) while publishing no trip reports and evidence of personally traveling.
I’m happy to know it’s because you’re prioritizing your family’s wellbeing, but it’s still inconsistent from a messaging perspective: “travel is great… for you.” Let’s be honest, it’s not the most responsible position to promote during a pandemic.
Gary, I got a bad flu in the first week of March this year that had Covid 19 symptoms but my doctor ruled it out because no one in my family had travelled abroad in the previous two weeks. As it turns out, my son’s girlfriend had travelled with her family to Tokyo and got my son sick for a couple of days but I was down with the flu for around three weeks after I caught it from him. My son is only 24 and I am turning 57. When I got sick my symptoms were feverish but no fever, diarhea, red eye, difficulty breathing at one point which were the main symptoms in the first week. I never encountered these kinds of symptoms whenever I had flu. My wife kind of felt sick but only for a couple of days.
That was March and now is December. Is there a medical test out there that can prove I had Covid 19 and not just the regular flu?
“The focus should be on how to be responsible rather than moralizing against all travel, telling people to stay home so then they gather with their neighbors locally.”
In my social circle, this isn’t an either/or. The people who are engaging in non-essential travel are the same people still gathering locally with friends and family. I can’t think of a single person who has traveled because they just needed a vacation, but doesn’t also mix and mingle with their social circle at home. Once you “break the seal” it seems like you kind of just resume your normal life.
So I guess what I’m disagreeing with here is that focusing on responsible travel etiquette isn’t going to reduce local gatherings to a measureable degree.
@Andrew – to be clear, I don’t think that’s an accurate characterization of what I’ve said – either about who travel is good for right now, or about my own travels (some but not like in normal times).
I’m arguing for weighing risks rather than moralizing, and that the perhaps third of the country that’s already had the virus can probably travel with impunity – but still should be respectful of others.
Reposted due to crappy spacing.
Ugh, I’ll jump on these comments. I have been really disappointed in the travel blogosphere’s take on travel during COVID times. To pretend you don’t benefit seems pretty incorrect (sure, you might not benefit when I purchase a ticket, but you get ad money from visits to your site, which would drop to 0 if people stopped travelling totally). So to pretend you don’t have skin in the seems disingenuous at best.
Now onto the meat of the post. For background, I have a PhD in social and infectious disease epidemiology.
On your 4 bullet points: 1) Even if the numbers are correct, if the cases haven’t been identified then there is no way for people to know who has or hasn’t been infected, so you can’t point to any group (other than the identified 15M/3%) and say you’re definitely good to travel.
2) Yes, they can travel, but the numbers who will get the vaccine immediately are not very high. Most of your readership is unlikely to have gotten the vaccine.
3) This is true, but that absolutely does not mean bringing the virus to a place where it is already present does no harm. Someone who may have otherwise been unexposed might run into you and now be infected when they otherwise wouldn’t have. This point does not give people carte blanche to go wherever the virus is already spreading.
4) You say we should “show our work” but don’t back up the claim here at all. People who are too irresponsible to stay at home are unlikely the altruistic people that are limiting the spread. Dollars to donuts you take a survey of those traveling and there are a lot of concomitant adverse behaviors.
The point about not meeting with neighbors is a good one and should be mentioned more. People act as if those consistently in close physical/relational proximity to them are somehow safer than strangers when that isn’t at all the case.
Messed up HTML~
Merde!
Now I terminate the darn ‘blockquote’ HTML tag,
You need a serologic or antibodies testing for COVID-19, especially since you are well beyond the incubation period. If you were exposed to CV-19, the likelihood is high that your body’s innate or natural immune system generate specific antibodies as a defense mechanism, which a serologic test might detect. A positive serologic test is more reliable vs. a negative test, as negative there is fairly high rate of false negative.
When CV-19 exploded in China in late December 2019v- early January 2020, I was in Shanghai (Jan 8-12) at the tail end of my 2019 Year-end Asian Escapade(tm) and got sick with flu-like symptoms for much of the time. The symptoms had subsided by the time I took the plane back home. I never got the symptoms again, but I still wonder whether I did get exposed back then and there, considering that Wuhan is quite close to Shanghai, and linked together by what is truly a thoroughfare. I dunno. I am planning to request a seroloogic test to find out…
Gary,
This will be my last comment on your work. You’ve officially lost a reader (admittedly a very obnoxious one whose comments you likely didn’t always love).
You should go back to selling cars.
Covid-19 is just one more of the divisive subjects of 2020 that will split people with no middle ground.
Travel has simply not been shown to be a driver of increased covid cases.
Poor individual choices, not travel, is causing an increase in virus cases that, as Gary notes, can happen just as much in one’s hometown as it can in another city, vacation or not.
Unfortunately, the CDC and Fauci are telling people to stay home even as Americans can clearly see that there are very real demographic differences involved in rates of covid cases and death which the CDC is not passing on to the public.
And then you have to consider that there are numerous incidents of hypocritical leaders who are ordering the most aggressive lockdowns violating their own orders and the American people are closer to doing their own thing than ever before.
I’m thankful for the coverage. I pose no scientifically backed risk to others, want to travel and am willing to do so responsibly / safely / respectfully. I don’t feel guilty for traveling.
Rules for thee not for me.
You don’t need a mask. Masks don’t work.
Now we have to wear masks at a times even when sleeping or you and your family will die. But its ok for our fear mongering leaders to dine out
Gary – Please don’t spread the rumor that you have had it, therefore you are immune. It’s like saying I had the flu this year so I can’t have it again. Please go by current CDC Guidance that they think immunity is likely no more than 90 days.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html
That’s some advice that’s easy to ignore. Just because the bulk of society lacks the requisite intelligence to figure out this hoax, doesn’t mean those of us able to think should change how we live our lives.
@Gary Leff I think the point that @Bob was trying to make was that medical advice and pandemic policy shouldn’t be dispensed by a travel expert.
The burden of proof is not on us to disprove you, but on you to prove why you’re qualified to make such remarks and have us treat them as anything more than an individual opinion, in which case you should re-phrase your passive aggresive headline.
And speaking of your headline, the point of parethesis is to add an aside that can be taken out without affecting the rest of the text. Taking the parethesis out of your headline leads to the nonsense line “No, It’s Not Time For To Stop Traveling”
This is a great post. I’ve been taking advantage of deals and traveling frequently since May.
I’m not going to let the fear mongering media tell me what to do. Or try and make me feel bad for traveling. Everyone can make their own choices. And take their own risks.
And don’t tell me “it’s science”. Most of the people who say that probably couldn’t pass a basic biology or chemistry test. But they think they know best.
I’m still waiting to see the Thanksgiving surge. So far everything I read shows cases going down.
For those of you who want to stay home, have fun. But don’t judge others.
@JamesN the same
Number of deaths per day as died on 9/11 and it’s a hoax. Wow! Keep proving your sheeplike credentials. Bleat on. Hope you get the virus
@Brian Instead of reading, try looking at actual data.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fcases-updates%2Fcases-in-us.html#trends_dailytrendscases
I’m not a scientist, but my layman’s opinion is that line is going up.
@Gary –
I got angry about this post and typed and deleted a response several times. I’ve worked myself down now to just being sad and disappointed in you. I’ve been reading your work for many years now. I haven’t always agreed with it, but I never had a reason to call your judgment and potentially your ethics into question. This is the first time.
Most of your points seem to focus on immunity, when nobody knows yet whether immunity is also correlated with a decrease in ability to transmit the virus. Until we know that, telling people to travel is basically saying “If I can’t get sick, then I should be able to travel, regardless of how many other people I might infect and maim or kill.”
You’re also creating absurd straw men in your arguments: “But what if you’re living somewhere that hospitals are at capacity, and traveling to some place where they aren’t? Aren’t you then doing something responsible for the health care system?” No! The morally appropriate comparison is to the alternative of STAYING AT HOME WITH YOUR IMMEDIATE FAMILY AND LEAVING ONLY FOR ESSENTIAL ACTIVITIES AND WEARING A FREAKING MASK WHERE YOU CAN’T HURT ANYONE ELSE.
But here’s the real problem. Unless you’ve got an MD or PhD in epidemiology tucked away that we don’t know about, you’re completely unqualified to comment on this, particularly when your advice goes against that of every reputable and competent public health official around the entire freaking world.
If you were just some schmuck on twitter mouthing off to their 150 followers, nobody would care.
But you’re not – you’re a legitimate travel expert followed by hundreds of thousands or millions of people. And you’re contradicting the advice of public health experts. And people are listening, because you’re telling them something that they want to hear.
I want to travel – desperately. This is the longest I’ve gone without getting on a plane for 40 years, and I’m in my 40’s. I have more than 2 million butt-in-seat miles. But I know I shouldn’t, because I understand the risks to others in my (global) community and I understand how much science knows about COVID, and more importantly, how much it doesn’t know.
And most importantly, I care about people and things other than myself and my own pleasures.
Agree with Greg. Long time reader but really irresponsible post. Transmitting virus may be possible after contracted COVID, it’s not known, so to encourage it is very irresponsible.
Am trying to decide whether this post tops the all-time worse travel-related post of all times, this one https://thepointsguy.com/news/critical-points-travel-during-coronavirus-outbreak/ who helped in getting us in the terrible situation we’re in.
@James N you have not visited an ER lately and spoken to anyone there to see for yourself what the “hoax” is in real life.
Highly recommended to understand just how much you have been hoodwinked by the Trumpworld lies (I only hope you weren’t one of those who “donated” $170 million TO A BILLIONAIRE to keep this murderous charade going)
@Tim Dunn – Even Trump agrees that travel has been shown to be a driver of increased COVID-19 cases, and as a result his administration has not removed its various travel bans, including to U.S. friends and allies like Brits.
@Tokyo Hyatt Fan – he didn’t even say he thought anything specific i wrote was incorrect, there’s a burden to explain WHY you think something is wrong, not just to throw up in a comment
I’m 68. In Sept my daughter and I flew from the South thru JFK and Dubai to spend a couple of weeks in the Maldives. In Oct my daughter spent a week in Belize. My husband and I just returned from a week in the Caribbean.
We were welcomed with open arms everywhere. More than open arms, with gratitude for bringing travel revenue.
If you want to travel, do so, safely. If you are afraid, stay home. It’s that simple.
@Amy
Actual transportation via an airplane is safe. What one does on one end or the other of a trip – or no trip at all- is what matters.
If the US felt air travel was completely unsafe, they could take stronger steps and would have data to prove it.
The whole reason so many people don’t believe what government officials say is because PER CAPITA death and case counts aren’t much different in states and countries that have locked down and imposed strict measures and those that have not. and then you have a growing plethora of hypocritical actions by local and state leaders that don’t comply with their own guidance.
OTOH, I wouldn’t trust some people I see on the streets to be in the same zip code with me.
I have flown regularly during the pandemic and feel safe and have never tested positive. I did have something back in 2019 that my doctor later said was probably covid but it was before it had a name.
The thesis of the article is correct although I am not sure why Gary wrote it. Some people can be safe.
The problem that has only gotten worse in 2020 is that there are only two extremes to every issue; SOME PEOPLE is indeed somewhere in the middle, a place some people cannot live.
Bob you are an idiot plain and simple. You called out the OP because he is not an expert! Are you? The article was full of good advice and made sense. Sick and tired of people like you who believe the country should be shut down. And yes I had Covid as did my wife. It was similar to having a mild case of the flu. We are in our 50s. It is time to restart the economy before we go into another recession.
Any you are also an idiot. My wife works in a hospital with Covid patients. The Covid unit has NEVER been full and she is in the largest hospital in our state. That is despite a record number of positive tests. Our state has one of the highest testing rates. Stop your ranting and read some of the info out there that is not on MSNBC or CNN. Maybe you will realize that there are significant flaws in how cases are getting reported and what constitutes a case as being labeled as COVID.
I have been reading this blog for a very long time and this is the first one that I really disagree with; parts of it any way. I love to travel and have lived in Iran and all over Europe. I have traveled much of the world and had to cancel two trips since the spring. I’m older so the time lost can’t be made up, but even if I was much younger I wouldn’t be traveling. It’s just not safe.
Planes may be safe (to an extent) but by every account I have read the airports are not (particularly for older people). Second, telling people to stay home and socialize is a bad idea. Since upwards of 40% of persons with covid are asymptomatic, you have no idea who is infected and who is not. If you listen to the scientists the spread seems to be great among small groups in people’s homes.
Bide your time and stay alive and we all get vaccinated.
From what I understand, the vaccine will (in most cases) prevent you from getting COVID-19 if you are infected with the coronavirus.
It will not, however, prevent you from CATCHING the coronavirus and passing it on to others.
So you still need to wear a mask everywhere, and isolate yourself from others as much as humanly possible, until most people have been vaccinated.