Air travel emits carbon dioxide. More demand for air travel supports more flights, and thus more carbon dioxide emissions.
While the interaction of emissions and temperature change is complex, the particular mechanisms subject to debate amongst scientists, a simple model suggests that your air travel is bad for the environment. But it simply isn’t true that every airline passenger and every ticket has the same contribution to emissions.
And we do know whether you have a high – or an exceptionally low – probability of affecting the number of flights, size of aircraft, and thus emissions.