Russian airlines are about to steal hundreds of aircraft. The leases on these planes must be terminated by Monday March 28, but the Russian government won’t permit their return. The registrations of these aircraft are being cancelled, but Russia is registering the planes itself.

The airworthiness certificates of most of the planes, registered in Ireland and Bermuda, have been suspended. And yet many of them are still flying. It’s an open question for how long, because Russia’s Cape Town Treaty obligations notwithstanding, they aren’t able to get parts for these planes on the legal market.

Aeroflot’s ultra low cost carrier Pobeda has been the third largest carrier in Russia, operating more than 40 Boeing 737-800s. Parent company Aeroflot is majority-owned by the Russian government.

It had 43 planes. At least one was repossessed abroad. Pobeda has announced that it plans to reduce its operational fleet down to 25, due to lack of parts. Presumably they’ll be cannibalizing the remaining aircraft. They hope this gets them ‘through the end of the year.’

What’s striking about this is that, for all of the speculation that Russian airlines could continue to operate indefinitely Iran-style, buying parts in secret, to the extent this is possible it will certainly be at a lower level of flying than before sanctions. And Pobeda only expects to be able to maintain 60% of its remaining fleet this year. Next year operations would need to be reduced even further.

Due to a lack of spare parts, Pobeda airlines is cutting its fleet from 41 down to 25, hoping supplies will last until the end of the year. pic.twitter.com/QgpyiHZUeO

— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) March 25, 2022

Here’s a brave Pobeda pilot announcing to his flight that his government’s invasion of Ukraine is a crime and must be stopped. He did this once his aircraft had landed in Turkey. Hopefully he is still safe.

Not all planes leased by Russian carriers have been stolen – at least 78 have been repossessed while outside the country. And not all airlines are continuing to operate planes they no longer have a right to control under international law: the private UTAir has indicated its 9 leased Boeing 737s would be withdrawn from service.

The use of parts obtained in circumvention of sanctions, and cannibalizing parts from other planes, is almost certain to lead to incomplete or inaccurate maintenance records which will leave the planes themselves virtually worthless even if sanctions on Russia are lifted soon. It’s the maintenance records that allow a plane to hold value.