Vaccines are coming, though slower than we’d all like. Some states may be well on their way to Covid-19 herd immunity, the bad kind, where there are fewer people left to infect because everyone’s already had it. One way or another it seems like we’re coming to the end of the pandemic, at least in the U.S., even if it’s going to be a hard next few months.
We’re all ready to travel again, and to return to normal life. Some people are too ready to get back to normal. If you’ve made it this long without getting the virus, it makes sense to hunker down just a few more months rather than hitting the bars in premature exuberance.
In April I laid out the case why business travel won’t ever fully return. It’s clearer now what sort won’t come back. And leisure travel will be limited by the countries that have opened their borders, even to people who have been vaccinated (we’re still a couple months away from data on whether vaccines prevent you from spreading the virus, not just getting it).
But there’s going to be a lot of intertemporal substitution (‘pent up demand’). People stayed home for a year, they’re going to want to take the time they’d have stayed home next year and use that time for the travel they couldn’t do in 2020. People are going to be bubbling over with excitement to travel in the second half of 2021, and into 2022.
- Business trips will be more rare, but those first ones are going to be a thrill. And their reduced frequency will make them seem more special – and an opportunity to break out from normal life.
- Mostly we’re going to be excited to see people. Other people will seem more novel and interesting. There’s going to be a lot more casual sex.
- Don’t worry, married or otherwise-monogamous people aren’t going to be left out. There’s going to be vacation sex, too. And since most of you haven’t been on a real vacation in awhile even that’s going to seem fresher, and more anticipatory.
With greater distancing and less time spent with others outside our household, other people will just seem more exciting than they used to. And we’ll see the people we’ve been stuck at home with for a year with fresh eyes while we’re on vacation. Plus hotel stays are good for sex even in normal times.