JetBlue and United Airlines are forming a partnership. Presumably American Airlines knew this was about to happen when they made their breakup announcement and filed a lawsuit. The United-JetBlue deal is going to be bigger than many expect, even if it isn’t announced that way on day one.
After I reported that JetBlue and United were in talks over a partnership of some kind back in January, based on leaks from JonNYC, United filed an SEC 8-K denying rumors of a deal. But it was a non-denial denial. They said they weren’t going to acquire JetBlue. I took that as confirmation as the other possibilities being discussed.
It has come to the Company’s attention that there may be rumors spreading among certain of our investors regarding United’s involvement in a potential strategic transaction with another airline. The Company is not in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction and has not been in any recent discussions with any airlines regarding the same.
I got a lot of heat from readers arguing that something was still in the works, despite United’s denial. Commenter Tim Dunn wrote “just let it go, Gary” “UA said nothing is happening w/ B6” and “bad week for Jon.” Commenter George Romney thought I would get sued. Obviously these turned out to be wrong takes.
I still think much of the commentary is getting what’s happening wrong. Here’s what Reuters reported about the planned partnership,
The partnership with United is envisioned as quite different from the NEA, the sources said. While the alliance is expected to focus on providing greater connectivity to customers and allowing them to earn and burn frequent-flier miles, the two carriers will not coordinate on schedules and pricing, they added.
One Mile at a Time wonders if that’s all there is, what’s the point? I’d suggest that this probably is not all there is.
- In a nutshell, the two airlines won’t share revenue or carve up schedules. That’s what created challenges for the American-JetBlue deal.
- But there’s no reason to think that description of the deal from Reuters is comprehensive. There’s very little detail offered. They have some broad strokes. It’s not a deep dive, and the authors may not grasp the nuance anyway. The point of this piece was to get out news that a deal was in the works, when there was plenty of speculation over whom it would be (I had still said almost certainly United, for instance, but there was a theoretical chance of a deal with Southwest).
Remember that the original leaking of a deal in the works between United and JetBlue involved discussions with Star Alliance airlines. That suggests it isn’t just that JetBlue members will be able to earn MileagePlus miles when flying United (although it’s possible that could be what gets first announced). There’s discussion around JetBlue’s New York JFK flying to provide connectivity for United’s Star Alliance partners (probably at least their joint venture partners like Lufthansa).
Could there be an eventual pathway into Star Alliance for JetBlue? The American-JetBlue Northeast Alliance included a plan for JetBlue to join oneworld, although this was never announced. It came out in testimony during the antitrust trial.
While the eventual contours of a deal, and how it develops over time – beyond what gets announced on day one – have yet to reveal themselves I imagine we’ll see not just mileage earn-and-burn but elite reciprocity and perhaps even some access to New York JFK for United. And I am guessing it may grow beyond just a partnership between JetBlue and United, but into something that benefits Lufthansa and perhaps even Air Canada.
Holy moly. In Gary’s earlier post, @Foghorn Leghorn and I speculated it might be Breeze because of Neeleman. But, wow, United… that’s big. I loved Gary’s mentions of Tim and George above. Bah! Bring the heat!
This is a bad day for AA and Delta.
The point of the “just let it go” is that the incessant speculation invariably leads to wrong conclusions.
and the Reuters report that it will not involve revenue sharing or joint pricing or capacity planning means it will not be much – unless there are slots involved.
As I ACCURATELY noted, B6 can’t dictate how UA uses slots if B6 decides to lease slots to UA.
and I also noted that there could be a pathway for B6 to be added to Star.
And if the agreement is a codesharing/marketing partnership without a slot transfer, then it is nothing more than AA has with AS and should have been able to do with B6.
I realize that I am by far the northstar of aviation social media but accurately noting what I did and did not say is fundamental to the discussion.
the real loser in all of this is AA and Gary is taking a bruising for how long he peddled that the NEA was right and AA gained so much from it.
Scott Kirby has AA in his crosshairs like nobody’s business, wants to take them out in Chicago and will expand his ire to NYC if he can with this agreement.
Even if there are slots traded, UA will still be relatively small at JFK, far smaller than DL so those that wishfully hope that UA will be able to inflict damage on DL are delusional.
Kirby’s hope if anything is to take out AA and gain its slots, not B6. DL is still far larger than either AA or B6.
and regardless of what UA gets in a partnership, DL is certain to step up its competitive presence in UA hubs. DL and UA have largely danced around each other but will become much more competitive if UA tries to make a move on JFK. THAT is a guarantee.
And with the A350-1000s coming, DL is in a far better position to grow into UA’s strength area – the Pacific – than UA can into DL’s strength hubs.
AA and WN are still the big weaklings of the industry. DL could easily take out AA or WN and gain far more in Texas and other AA or WN strength markets than UA can gain at JFK, on top of DL’s international growth
When people including Gary and Scotty play checkers, it isn’t hard for people like me to win watching Delta play chess.
Ouch! Tim got a spanking and isn’t taking it well. Get me more popcorn!
I’m taking it quite well, thank you very much.
It was Gary that incessantly argued how the government got it wrong w/ the NEA when I said what the real problem was and he is now having to face the consequences that UA might finish off AA in Chicago and NYC.
and DL swoops in for a much bigger kill with either AA or WN.
AA operations exist to make everyone else’s look good.
It is in other airlines interest to keep AA alive as the comparison airline
Without knowing the nuances this is pretty exciting just with the names involved. Let’s see what happens, hope it’ll be beneficial for flyers.
@1990 — That’s when you know you’ve made it as a VFTW legend! I wonder which regular commentor will make it into a Gary article next…
@Tim Dunn — DL swooping AA or WN would be epic!
Hmmm.. also Tim Dunn:
https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-pilot-chatter-new-heathrow-flights-giving-up-on-lax-and-growth/
“AA made the right decision to get rid of a bunch of aircraft during the pandemic and, given that they have pushed back deliveries of 789s, they aren’t expecting a whole lot of growth but rather reshuffling their network.
Isom is going to stop the financial bleeding that Parker could not do and that has significant implications for AA’s international network.”
https://viewfromthewing.com/american-airlines-ceo-robert-isom-named-worlds-best-huh/
“The biggest thing that can be said about Robert Isom is that he is finally running AAL like a business. He has told people like Vasu to stop flying routes for “strategic purposes” when they lose money. He is growing AA’s domestic system where it makes sense and taking advantage of AA’s very formidable southern US route network. He has slashed spending which will allow AAL to quickly improve its balance sheet but AAL has very limited growth capacity – unlike DL, UA or WN.”
“Bob Jordan is stuck w/ fixing some deep structural problems at LUV but Southwest has very deep winning DNA that includes the ability to adapt. They will do fine.”
Tim,
“DL could easily take out AA or WN”
“DL swoops in for the bigger kill”
Do it then.
Seriously, just do it then if it’s that easy. You are in shambles right now.
Gary ban this dude.
Gary.
I would very much like to see AA and WN succeed but the evidence is increasingly mounting that AA is not going to be able to do what I and AA’s board had hoped.
Jury is a little further out on WN but they will be a legacy carrier minus (using your words) with legacy carrier costs.
You and others are fixated on a deal w/ B6 that likely will be what AA has with AS and AA could have had with B6. The Boston judge told AA that the AA/AS relationship would legally work so the real question is why AA couldn’t figure out how to come up w/ a new deal w/ B6 like AA/AS.
UA is fixated on getting back into JFK and taking out AA. Even w/ a codeshare agreement, UA could start doing some “interesting” corporate deals that take out AA.
none of which changes that you have written endless articles about why the government’s decision on the NEA was wrong. YOU are the one that has struggled to accept reality.
Care to provide links to just THREE of those articles?
AA’s hub days in NYC and Chicago could be numbered. DL has been gaining because of AA’s ineptitude in NYC and LAX for decades.
Because everything Scott Kirby knows about how to run airlines has come from Delta, he wants in on the revenue reappropriation that DL has succeeded at in NYC even as EWR continues to be an operational disaster of UA’s own making.
fixate on who was wrong here, Gary. I’m focusing on the endgame.
AA is the loser.
UA has its eyes on AA’s slots at JFK.
DL will come up w/ a much bigger deal that widens its lead in the domestic market because of AA and WN’s weakness and strategic lethargy.
In the last 5 quarters, JetBlue has lost $1 billion and there’s no indication when that’s going to change. If UA wanted to buy B6, given the latter’s stock price, they could do it with the loose change in the couch cushions in the pilot break room at ORD. It has about a dozen planes grounded indefinitely because of the GTF issues. It’s pilot contract just became amendable.
It has two things going for it that UA might want: access to JFK and its A220’s.
I smell PanAmification here. JetBlue will sell slots and gates at JFK. UA doesn’t want a hub. Just enough for transcons and flights from ORD and DEN to feed Star Alliance, which would mean B6 would sell (or lease) prime 4-7pm slots.
Other than that, JetBlue brings nothing to UA. It’s core routes from JFK and BOS to Florida are mature, seasonal, and low yield.
Watch to see what assets B6 sells UA.
@Tim Dunn — You’re absolutely right. Most of the time we’re just speculating on here. And, boy, folks sure do love to dunk on each other here. This game is definitely not over. I think ultimately your theories here will prevail. I’d still like to see DL take WN’s assets either via Northwest-style merger, or Pan-Am-style purchase of assets. Let UA try at JFK (yet again); meanwhile, DL can take on Texas. Why not!
@Gary Leff — This ‘announcement’ feels more like a public relations campaign than any real substance. Like, where are the details? Are we getting lounge access? Or is it just occasional codeshares (lame). This idea that UA and B6 will be just fine (as opposed to what happened with AA and B6 on the NEA) because they *say* that they will ‘not coordinate on schedules and pricing’ yet that’s easier said than done. The airlines can try to hide it within algorithms, not put it literally in-writing, etc., but if there is any transparency or accountability, there will likely be coordination of some kind, no meaningful difference than before, and it could end poorly for them. Ultimately, folks are gonna get sued here, as before. The court and time will likely tell. Or, if we have a king, then he decides… gulp.
@Gene the stock machine! — Horrible take, sir. No one here has done anything worthy of banning. Do not seek to silence or censor others on a whim. Bring back the regular @Gene!
@L737 — Not sure if it’s an honor here, but it’s the ‘thought’ that counts. I mean, the ‘thought leader.’
Wow Tim trying to defend himself when he was just plain wrong is great to watch.
One day he will just have to accept that United is a competitive carrier to DL (not saying better or worse) and uses a differentiated strategy.
Kirby has long said that leaving JFK was a bad choice for UA. Why judge him for trying to fix the mistake?
Gary spelled my last name wrong. That aside, the comment was that if a blogger releases non public information yes there’s definitely a chance of getting sued. Which is something Jon likes to do. Now granted he might get it as a “leak” that management wants out and wink, wink, nod, nod let’s give to a blogger to announce. Happens all the time in the world of politics. But if it’s something the airline (or any business) considers non public, under wraps, I wouldn’t want to be said blogger if they decide to shut me down. And I really would not want to be the leaker, soon to be out of a job.
I’m surprised no one has caught onto this, but essentially what they’re apparently doing is what American and Alaska have been doing for years. They’re simply copying the AA/AS relationship and JetBlue will become a member of Star Alliance.
17 paragraphs and Tim still can’t admit he was wrong. Shocker.
@Beanie – American and Alaska codeshare. We don’t know if codesharing is involved. American and Alaska partnered both inside and outside of oneworld. And since the West Coast Alliance there have been elevated elite benefits like reciprocal upgrades. We don’t know what kind of elite benefits might exist in any UA/B6 arrangement, or lounge access.
@George N Romey – publishing non-public information is not a crime (provided of course that it was obtained legally). of course a company can sue for anything! from what i understand, jonnyc can certainly cover any legal expenses to defend himself against a frivolous suit if necessary. i carry insurance for just such an event.
@George N Romey — Wait, you aren’t the late George Romney, former HUD Sectary under President Nixon, Governor of Michigan, and father of former US Senator of Utah, 2012 Republican Presidential candidate, Governor of Massachusetts, and CEO of Bain Capital, Mitt Romney? Shocked.
@gary It wouldn’t be a criminal matter it of course would be a civil matter. (Unless the SEC gets involved). As far as airline management I would imagine that most of them have enough to deal with running an airline than to worry about what endless bloggers say. Including the type for whatever reason I can’t comprehend feel like they have to “document” a two hour coach flight.
But publish something eluding to a merger, joint venture, or agreement that could impact shareholders that’s getting dicey. Unless, again, it was a wink, wink, nod, nod from management to do so.
Guess a less regional and more worldwide, recognizable, and marketable BRAND NAME, is not in the future for Southwest or anyone else now!
The Blue-ification of the Western World apparently stops here!
Congratulations to Star Alliance carrier United Airlines for the merger nixing branding coup. Are Pan Am, Braniff, and TWA still available?
Regards from Varigatarian Air.
No @George Romey, merely “publish[ing] something eluding to a merger, joint venture, or agreement that could impact shareholders” is not “getting dicey.” Maybe publishing something knowingly false or at least careless and easily determinable to be false while holding investments (and liquidating them!) affected by such a claim, ok. But offering commentary – especially well-grounded commentary – is in no way actionable.
Has anyone mentioned the new Terminal 6 at JFK and its direct connection to JetBlue T5. Understand T6 will be populated with many Star Alliance carriers and B6 could handle the domestic legs. Also, there is no overlap in B6’s Euro footprint with Star carriers nor does B6 have any Asian coverage.
In a subtle way, JetBlue would become the dominate Star carrier at JFK, BOS, and FLL plugging holes in Star coverage.
roberto,
because, despite the cherrypicking and omission of all of the facts, I have not said or written anything that is incorrect.
I did say that, if antitrust considerations are a reality, then this deal will go with WN because WN and B6 has virtually no overlap while B6 and UA have enormous overlap in NYC.
Turns out that even the Reuters article says that UA is not interested in delaying the process w/ antitrust approvals – which means that there can be no JV, no revenue sharing or joint pricing and capacity planning.
Given that the DL/UA JFK/EWR slot swap did result in DOJ review which resulted in the DOJ denying the EWR side of the swap because UA had already had too high of a market share. DL gained UA’s former slots at JFK but UA did not get the slots at EWR.
And because UA did not fully utilize the slots it had at EWR, the FAA removed slot controls at EWR which has led to a decade of operational chaos at EWR which is all of UA’s own doing – even if it wasn’t under the Kirby administration.
none of which changes that a B6/UA partnership appears to be parallel to AA/AS and might include Star membership for B6.
Not earth-shattering by any means and probably won’t even involve a return of UA metal to JFK.
UA is gunning for AA and having another competitor at JFK, even if only via a codeshare, is very bad news for AA which has struggled for 20 years as to what to do in NYC.
AA is the loser. Period. Full stop.
DL isn’t going to give up anything to anyone. In fact, 50 years of deregulation shows that DL has grown at AA and UA’s expense as well as those of their former merger partners.
If B6/UA turns out to be anything of significance, DL will initiate its own strategic plans and they will likely involve AA or WN, both of which are as weak if not weaker than B6 and provide far bigger opportunities for DL than UA can get w/ B6.
it is absolutely true that some people work overtime to prove others are wrong.
The final story is far from written.
The US airline industry has never rationalized capacity post-covid. the weakest players will be ripe for the plucking off of markets by the strongest carriers.
Right now, DL and UA are the two airlines in the strategic driver’s seat for the industry.
UA is making its move; DL will have something to say at the right time.
Tim “I never said what I said” Dunn is the loser.
Period.
Full stop
when people on a.net asked what is wrong w/ someone that trashes anyone that dares challenge your thoughts, it is clearly not me that is the loser.
And it is pretty clear that it is only AA and UA that provide any leaks to you.
I don’t know if I have enough popcorn for all the Blogger / Commenter crossfire in these comments…
Good for UA btw…Kirby could have transformed AA, but instead they made it his mission in life to run them out of business. I don’t think he’ll actually succeed, but he’s turning them into the Brussels Airlines of the USA with each successive strategic move. Another once proud legacy airline that’s relegated to permanent second-class status despite carrying the most advantageous name anyone could paint on their airplane. If you’re listening AA, product and convenience matter and you provide neither.
No big deal (so far) but I believe that there is much more to this than we know. Stay tuned.
Who cares how UA and B6 affects DL or AA? Especially when the more entertaining issue is the sniping by a group of so-called adults who are playing “Mooooommmmm, he’s picking on me!!!”
Kirby is having a JFK nocturnal emission right about now!
“And it is pretty clear that it is only AA and UA that provide any leaks to you.”
This is the *weirdest* comeback ever.
it ain’t a comeback.
It is fact.
and you went on endlessly about a UA-B6 merger and that has been denied.
which pretty well means you just get leaked AA documents.
Probable all of the employees of carriers mentioned as possible for DL would favor it … 4% raises (or more) every year … that would sooth hurt and angst at having to switch. Has there ever been an employee vote that their Board please find somebody to buy it? (would probably happen at AA, but that’s another story)
One wonders if United will do any more flying to Boston to provide connections to Jet Blue flights. One could also see UA code shares on Jet Blue transcontinental flights to JFK, avoiding the need for United to actually get slots to “serve” JFK. But, one would think there would be some revenue associated with a code share and frequent flyer mile transactions, even if there isn’t a general revenue sharing agreement.
All uninformed speculation, but that’s what Blog Comment sections are for.
I seriously doubt any of the Big3 will be allowed to merge with any other carrier, period! If any one thinks that this will happen, they are seriously delusional. Even this administration will be hesitant to allow it.
Bad day for the flying public. United already directly controlled a disproportionately large amount of NYC traffic. The last thing we need is them – directly or not – controlling more of it. The USA has had too much consolidation in the airline industry. The last thing we need is one of the Big 3 getting even bigger.
It makes sense because UA is primarily interested in having a good route network, and adding Jet Blue at JFK enhances that.