The bottom-line, no matter what anyone else tells you, is who makes the biggest credible offer to buy Starwood.
Contra the claim that “Starwood’s board has to determine whether or not it wants to go with this cash deal or whether it wants to go with Marriott, and see how Marriott’s stock does over the long term” they really won’t be deciding whether they think long-term Marriott’s stock will do better than cash now.
If they get more cash for their shareholders, those shareholders can choose to buy even more Marriott stock or anything else they wish. Turning down a substantially more lucrative offer isn’t just a recipe for shareholder lawsuits, it’s a recipe for successful shareholder lawsuits for a breach of the board’s fiduciary duty.
NWA‘s “Gangsta Gangsta” pretty much summed up the decision tree here, Starwood’s life ain’t nothin but money. The only question for Starwood’s board, then, comes down to how real the Anbang offer is and whether Marriott raises their offer to match it.