Is JetBlue joining Star Alliance? There’s a lot suggesting that this could be under discussion. The biggest argument against it is that it hasn’t happened yet, so might not come to fruition. That, and Betteridge’s law of headlines: since it’s still a question, some will presume the answer is no. But here’s the argument for yes:

• JetBlue said during their earnings call that they are looking at partnerships.

  So, we’re having conversations with a number of carriers right now to discuss the potential for future partnership. The judge in Massachusetts obviously laid out a framework that would be acceptable under at least the prior administration. So, you know, that’s what we’re looking at, but there’s nothing to announce.

• They’ve planned to join a global alliance in the past. As part of their partnership with American Airlines, which was broken up by the Biden administration, they were supposed to be sponsored for entry into oneworld.

• JonNYC reported that United Airlines is looking at a potential deal of some kind with JetBlue. United says they aren’t discussing buying or merging with JetBlue. Jon reports that United has discussed arrangements with partners (I presume this means at least Lufthansa).

While an outright acquisition would face anti-trust problems, alliance membership would not. Alaska and American both co-exist in oneworld together. United and US Airways used to both be members of Star. The judge in the American-JetBlue anti-trust case said that American’s ‘West Coast Alliance’ with Alaska is a model for a deal that passes muster, even as he argued that American-JetBlue did not. Alliance membership wouldn’t entail carving up routes across the carriers.

Since United’s strength is at Newark, and their New York JFK slots were leased out to Delta a decade ago, Star Alliance carriers lack feed at New York JFK. This would be a valuable partnership especially for Lufthansa Group carriers, but also for other more minor Star airlines.

And it would address a strong need of JetBlue’s. It would give them connecting traffic onto their U.S. domestic flights, and the ability to sell connections beyond their European destinations. They’re building lounges at New York JFK and Boston, and it would give them a lounge network. Their frequent flyer program would become more compelling, offering status recognition and award redemption globally (improving the value proposition of their credit card as well).

Star Alliance Lounge LAX Outdoor Deck

Global alliance membership makes sense. The scuttlebutt from Star Alliance partners of United’s that there’s consideration of a deal with JetBlue and that United only states there are no merger plans makes this a strong possibility. Edited to add that Enilria comes to a similar conclusion as well, noting that United “did not deny that JetBlue could be looking at joining Star Alliance.”

American and JetBlue made nods towards re-starting their partnership, potentially adjusting the model and taking advantage of a change in administration.

If United were to swipe this opportunity from under American, it would be another coup along the lines of Delta nabbing LATAM out from under them.