FedEx pilot crews have been told that – despite the national pilot shortage – they are overstaffed, because air cargo demand is down. Pilots are receiving minimum hours only, for the most part, and they expect that to remain “for the foreseeable future.” This is an industry-wide issue.
As a result, the shipping company is telling its pilots to go work for American Airlines through one of their regional airlines. Aviation watchdog JonNYC flags this issue.
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) November 3, 2023
American Airlines wholly-owned regional carrier PSA has a package specifically to recruit FedEx pilots including credit for seniority, a $250,000 signing bonus, and guaranteed flow to the mainline carrier.
Over the summer FedEx pilots rejected a contract that had been negotiated by their union. They’ve seen American, Delta and United pilots being paid well and weren’t happy with a 30% increase in pay. Did they miss their window?
The October jobs report released today showed signs of slowdown amidst a historically significant run-up in interest rates. Not only are shipping companies like FedEx and UPS seeing slowing volumes of goods being moved, but ultra-low cost airlines are hemorrhaging.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast shows estimated growth below 1%, though a range that shows it could currently be negative.
Nonetheless commercial airlines remain short of pilots in the face of early retirements taken during the pandemic, a lack of pilot hiring during that period, and barriers to entry into the profession that the major pilot union lobbied successfully for 15 years ago.
FedEx must feel that there will be enough qualified cargo pilots to hire when shipping picks up again. I suspect that the shipping slowdown is only the tip of the iceberg as far as the economy slowing. If the economy slows down a lot, the rest of the airlines may have an excess of pilots.
The problem with FedEx is the amount they are charging. After my daughter relocated to Japan, I was going to ship her two totes that way to combined 80 pounds. FedEx wanted $3300 to ship them. I just waited and the next month bought a premium economy ticket that included 2-50 pound suitcases and flew over and back cheaper than shipping the two totes.
Don’t know if you watch Kelsey “74 Gear” pilot on YouTube, but about 3 weeks ago he did a segment on UPS pilots being cut. He said that’s bellwether as to the state of the economy, and he’s correct. Not only that, but truck cargo loads are being cut drastically. Americans just don’t have enough money to buy much more than essentials, at this point. I’m afraid there’s more financial bad news coming soon, despite the recent stock market rise.
Flying cargo to flying cargo
OMG is “The Premium Airline” to snooty to hire cargo pilots?
It is an interesting profession. It takes no talent, no degrees, and no extraordinary intelligence. Yet, you get outsized deference and compensation. Just need to get the flight hours without going bankrupt or signing up for a year(s) of indentured servitude with a regional.
Let’s play a game: Which airline will declare Chapter 11 first? a) American, b) Delta, c) JetBlue, d) Southwest, or e) United?
@Jake… kind words for the airline pilots out there that have shuffled you around the country safely . It doesn’t take talent until your departing out of an hot and high airport and you lose and engine. You better hope your pilots are skilled and smart. Of and of course when auto pilot 1+2 fail :).
@gary. Just reading the title I knew you wrote this. Boarding area used to be a good happy place to get away from CNN. I’m sure they are hiring and you can do much better there.
Cargo flying to flying for AA? Can they not choose which airline they wish to fly for?
Amazon with regional distribution centers loaded with a million items and fleets of trucks to support Prime. Adapt or die.
I think the problem is how boring the job is.
1) The Union screwed those Pilots. They totally lost their window. 30% is AWESOME and they should have been content.
2) UPS is doing a similar thing right now and many Pilots are working the lowest amount of hours allowed.
3) AA has reported less cargo volumes and revenue the last several quarters.
Shipping has gotten INSANE. I bought a $20 piece of glass art and was charged $60 for “shipping and handling”. Companies can only gouge Americans for so long until they either stop accepting it or literally can’t afford it any longer.
@cr- : It’s an OPTIONAL move a bonus and guarantees. Might have something to do with the ARE/REGION where these unneeded GedEx Pilots are based at. PSA mainly does MidWest/MidAtlantic flying and the FedEx flight hub is based in Memphis Tennessee and PSA is based in Dayton, Ohio.
These Pilots can of course go wherever they want. But a Quarter of a Million with a guarantee to eventually end up at AA under the Union is a great path and career plan.
Read a Book.
Agree with H2oman – in 2021 air freight prices spiked to insane levels and haven’t particularly dropped back down. It is no wonder they are seeing a decrease in cargo.
@ SMR – I get shuffled around by buses, Ubers, etc as well. Always thankful. Pilots are no different and are in the same category in terms of talent/ability. My word are not meant to be unkind, I just believe it’s true.
This is Bidenomics taking America to the poor house. No good reason for the USA to be in this shape.
@Jake- most the world watches day to day normal operations. Learning to be prepared to handle any possible emergency and assuring you keep yourself prepared for the almost impossible is the difficult part of the job. No one who hasn’t been through can say it’s easy. Sign up for a 737 type rating and let me know how that goes.
@ SMR – you pay, would love to. My BIL is a commercial pilot by the way. Was a bus driver in SF when he was much younger. He says being bus driver was the toughest job of his life. Training for your job is not easy for sure. But what is? And you making it sound as if there’s some kind of exceptionalism involved is disingenuous.
Economy has been down for a while. Only those living in lala land have not accepted that reality. We hit 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth what like a year or so ago? Inflation is sky high people are using credit cards to get by and yet the fed believe that COVID related savings are still sitting in people’s bank accounts. Until the delusional leaders can deal with reality it’s only going to get worse.
@unitedEF US GDP 2nd quarter grew by 2.5%. Estimated growth for q3 is 3.9%. So 5 consequtive quarters of growth since the 2 negative ones you spoke of from q2 2022. Sept inflation rate is 3.7% ending in Sept. . Down from it’s height of 9.1 in Jul 22, about the same rate as Jul 2021. Still not as low as the 2-2.5% the feds wants of course. Not arguing some people aren’t facing tough times, but let’s all use the real numbers.
Driving a bus is harder than flying an airplane now we know where are the drugs are going……
Jake, you just don’t have a clue what you’re talking about and to be honest really showed your a** with these posts.. The flying public has no idea what goes on in aviation really.
I used to buy things at brick and mortar stores where I live and then ship them to my family across the country. Now I buy things at Amazon and have them delivered directly.
The economy isn’t slowing. This specific industry is changing. Amazon has 86 Airbus and Boeing cargo jets with 16 on order, 18% growth.
People think shipping prices are high especially with the new union contracts just wait and see how car prices are going to increase. Out of respect for Gary will leave the political commentary out.
Oh wait till you see the price of drinks in Vegas !
Jake! My husband was a career airline pilot. A fine man among men. He started out as a long haul truck driver but had a work ethic that would embarass most. I was so proud of his accomplishment to get on with a major. Not all pilots strut around like Top Gun Mavericks but no worries if they can convince the flying public pilots are not necessary they would replace them with AI in a second.
Union Labor is 5% of the price of a car. Maybe try buying a European or Japanese vehicle and see how much that saves you.
This is a negotiation tactic
1. The labor association just had a leadership change this week.
2. Dropping a distractor on the last business day prior to negotiations resuming is a beautiful play by management
3. This will cause the labor group to divide time between negotiations and answering the new flow program
4. No votes on the last TA were predominantly newer pilots. This offer intent is to motivate them to leave
5. The airline is currently assigning premium trips or draft trips because they can not cover the flying as is. This is for multiple planes in multiple bases. They are right sized now or they wouldn’t be offering premium.
6. The transition from Fred Smiths Airline to Raj and the former CEO of Atlases airline is parallel to the departure of Herb Keller at Southwest
Not just air cargo. JB Hunt, for the first time in several years, is also laying off truckers. The economic downturn is coming and those living off the fat (looking at YOU real estate agents, car dealers, etc) will soon have to start working for their money.
Biden economics you got to love it
@ joanie – I’m sure he was a fine human being, regardless of his profession. You bring up an interesting point about AI. I work in the industry in SV, and it is an order of magnitude easier to develop software for flying planes vs driving cars, because there are an order of magnitude fewer number of variables/scenarios. However, I believe a completely pilot-less system is unlikely any time soon because even with multiple redundancies for both hardware and power supply, the potential for malfunction or power outage – even if miniscule probability – is still too risky given the number of lives at stake onboard and on the ground for a single event. A copilot-less outcome is highly likely in the near future though, unless of course the unions and politics get in the way, which I am sure they will.
Jake is clearly an idiot and low information voter. His bias is clear, and you can tell he is truly bothered by the idea of pilots getting compensated at such levels for their talents. They make 250K on average, while his wife / significant other begs him to work more to break 45K. An utter failure.
@Jake you’re obviously not very smart he do not realize the intelligence and work needed to qualify for even a license to fly yourself from one part of the country to the other. Getting the training needed to become a commercial pilot flying hundreds of people around is astonishly expensive and takes only the best of the best to get through the training. You just know their example of someone opening their mouth and proving how stupid they are
@ Jake. Sir, your last post actually makes sense . . . the others not so much. For those pontifications you are out of your wheelhouse. I wasn’t paid because I was special, I was paid because I was professional, highly trained and constantly proven proficient.
@ One – again, as I said in the first post: “It is an interesting profession. It takes no talent, no degrees, and no extraordinary intelligence. Yet, you get outsized deference and compensation.” I don’t think we’re disagreeing.
I wonder if DL, UA, and AA were too generous with their recent pilot contracts. Southwest still hasnt come to terms with its pilots. If the pilot shortage is ending as airlines are done replenishing staff post Covid buyouts, Southwest maybe able to settle at a lower cost and reset the industry benchmark for pilot compensation.
Wow… this article missed the mark. The headline explicitely links e-mails from FedEx to pilots to a supposed economic downturn. A less-biased, or more informed, writer would mention that these scare tactics from corporate leadership are common /expected during ongoing bargianing.
I normally just read comments for giggles but we seem to have a potentially overpaid SV tech worker (“manager” or even “founder” if he likes fancy titles?) who is clearly showing symptoms of Dunning-Kruger and needs a little reality check.
“Dunning-Kruger effect suggests that unknowledgeable people lack the very expertise they need to recognise their lack of expertise” -British Psychological Society
@Jake let’s make sure everyone is aware you also posted:
“I get shuffled around by buses, Ubers, etc as well. Always thankful. Pilots are no different and are in the same category in terms of talent/ability. My word are not meant to be unkind, I just believe it’s true.”
1. Your right to believe whatever you want does not make you right. IF “I just believe it’s true” establishes truth, then the Earth must be flat and we’re all just idiots being brainwashed by the “hoax” NASA. See exhibit A – Flat Earth cars and idiots-in-cars https://www.reddit.com/r/FlatEarthCars/
2. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you just said “pilots are no different” than bus driver or even Uber drivers in terms of “talent/ability”. I’m no betting man, but I have a very strong sense that if you put any random bus driver or Uber drivers through months of flight school, a large majority will not pass. Have you taken any courses on aerodynamics or meteorology? Ever learned how to communicate on radio? See how many bus/Uber drivers (and just any average people) can pass those courses and possess the ability to perform at the level required when a sizeable population can’t even pass basic geometry or algebra.
Becoming a pilot is much more than learning just how to “fly”. Are you going to argue an aircraft is just like a bus, just more engines with a pair of wings? When was the last time your Uber driver or bus driver calculated center of gravity or ran through extensive checklists? Have you ever tried communicating with ATC at a busy airport (while flying an aircraft loaded with several hundred souls)? Do you frequently take 12 hour Uber ride over the Pacific/Atlantic oceans?
3. Your “BIL” sounds like a humble human being who understands he is in a good place after all the hard work he put in to become a pilot, but you seem to take his words and use that as a license to slight his hard work and accomplishments by dismissing the profession as just some glorified “bus” or “Uber” driver. I will give you credit for recognizing the low/near-zero tolerance for risk involved with flying, but you clearly doesn’t know much about human factors or what specifically goes into being a commercial pilot. Have some respect unless you really know the subject
*I’m not sure what’s wrong with the line break…but it seems all paragraphs are mashed into one in the preview, let’s see if this one goes through?
/I normally just read comments for giggles but we seem to have a potentially overpaid SV tech worker (“manager” or even “founder” if he likes fancy titles?) who is clearly showing symptoms of Dunning-Kruger and needs a little reality check.
/”Dunning-Kruger effect suggests that unknowledgeable people lack the very expertise they need to recognise their lack of expertise” -British Psychological Society
/@Jake let’s make sure everyone is aware you also posted:
“I get shuffled around by buses, Ubers, etc as well. Always thankful. Pilots are no different and are in the same category in terms of talent/ability. My word are not meant to be unkind, I just believe it’s true.”
/1. Your right to believe whatever you want does not make you right. IF “I just believe it’s true” establishes truth, then the Earth must be flat and we’re all just idiots being brainwashed by the “hoax” NASA. See exhibit A – Flat Earth cars and idiots-in-cars https://www.reddit.com/r/FlatEarthCars/
/2. Correct me if I’m wrong, but you just said “pilots are no different” than bus driver or even Uber drivers in terms of “talent/ability”. I’m no betting man, but I have a very strong sense that if you put any random bus driver or Uber drivers through months of flight school, a large majority will not pass. Have you taken any courses on aerodynamics or meteorology? Ever learned how to communicate on radio? See how many bus/Uber drivers (and just any average people) can pass those courses and possess the ability to perform at the level required when a sizeable population can’t even pass basic geometry or algebra.
/Becoming a pilot is much more than learning just how to “fly”. Are you going to argue an aircraft is just like a bus, just more engines with a pair of wings? When was the last time your Uber driver or bus driver calculated center of gravity or ran through extensive checklists? Have you ever tried communicating with ATC at a busy airport (while flying an aircraft loaded with several hundred souls)? Do you frequently take 12 hour Uber ride over the Pacific/Atlantic oceans?
/3. Your “BIL” sounds like a humble human being who understands he is in a good place after all the hard work he put in to become a pilot, but you seem to take his words and use that as a license to slight his hard work and accomplishments by dismissing the profession as just some glorified “bus” or “Uber” driver.
I will give you credit for recognizing the low/near-zero tolerance for risk involved with flying, but you clearly doesn’t know much about human factors or what specifically goes into being a commercial pilot. Have some respect unless you really know the subject
Jake, I’m a 56 pax. tourbus driver, and although I have studied and such; a pilot always remains much more skilled of course. The hardest part of the bus training was for the airbrake endorsement, driving in the dark on a snow covered highway, in narrow down town cores, and backing up between two other buses. We all are good at something, but pilots are way up there in every aspect of the word. I receive a fraction of compensation a pilot does, work my max. allowable on duty hours, which exceeds pilot hours. The only thing I have in common with a pilot are the people behind my back, the overnight stays in hotels, the free dinners, etc, and my uniform minus the striped epaulettes.
So many of these comments miss the mark. FedEx has a shrinking overnight marketshare. Brought on by miserable management, who are clueless as to the direction of the company. When Amazon started their own delivery service, FedEx shut the door on Amazon using FedEx services.
(https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/industries/logistics/2019/06/07/fedex-amazon-cut-ties-u-s-domestic-deliveries/1383075001/#:~:text=FedEx%20Express%20has%20cut%20ties,broader%20e-commerce%20market.”
At that time, no plans were made to consolidate the company, Ground and Express. But this past April, they decided to merge all the op-cos into one operation. Twenty plus years too late. FedEx pisses money away like no tomorrow. They have treated employees as easily replaceable at every level of the company. The new CEO (Raj Subramaniam) is heartless. He doesn’t care about the employees or the customers. Overnight services have dramatically lower service levels than in the past. Shippers are thusly abandoning FedEx overnight services in droves. The Shoprunner acquisition is another wasted opportunity.
This plan for the pilots, is offered because Fred Smith treats pilots like gods. They are the only organized workgroup. There is no overnight service without the pilots. But don’t ever think this is an altruistic offer. Because FedEx Management always have ulterior motives. I know, I worked there for 36 years.
This comment section is the blind leading the blind when it comes to economics.
@ Prevost – there’s absolutely nothing exceptional about pilots. Like bus drivers, no degrees are needed. Training isn’t easy, of course, but just about anyone can do it. It takes 5 years apprenticeship to become a professional plumber in CA and it takes less than that to become a pilot. My pilot brother-in-law was a city bus driver, and he’s always encouraging younger folks in that profession to try aviation because there’s absolutely nothing special about the knowledge nor the “skills” to being one. There’s also nothing exceptional about coding. Anyone can become proficient. There’s too much mystique associated with these high paying, in-demand professions – often perpetuated by self-serving practitioners – and these misperceptions of difficulty are keeping folks away and causing shortages and missed opportunities.
Strange times we live in. A bit sad too in the nostalgia department. FedEx bought out the airline my pops flew check captain on the 747 for in ‘89… Flying Tigers. Spent most of my summers growing up sitting in the back of the sim at the Tigers LAX facility. When I started flying in my teens, I think I was the only student pilot whose logbook had Cessna 152 and B747-200 in it lol. All I heard through school was nothing but “pilot shortage!”. Nobody was expecting that to be coupled with the economic equivalent of “controlled flight into terrain”. In my humble opinion, the airline industry started declining the moment they stopped stocking branded decks of cards… pilots are a noticeably special breed of human. Cool under pressure, unique senses of humor, good natured, and a sense of reliability that we see less an less of in the general populace. Jake you reminded me of something my dad would joke about occasionally; when people asked him what he did for a living, he’d tell people he drove an 18-wheeler lol (the joke being he hauled freight and that’s how many wheels were on the ‘74). And I quote Airplane!, “It’s just a lot harder to keep baseball cards in the spokes” LOL cheers everybody.
OK, many parts to this issue. One reader (Jake) holds the opinion that pilots are overpaid and underqualified. I have two degrees specifically in aviation – BS in Aero Studies/Flt and MAS in Aerospace/Aviation Safety Systems and I’m currently working for an intl airline in an aviation safety capacity. I’m also a CFI-Airplane/Instrument. Big deal, all that won’t get me a beer at the bar, but I do therefore have a working familiarity with flt ops, safety, human factors, accident investigation, etc. Sure, pilots pull the big bucks, work maybe 10-15 days/month and generally live a great life. However, these rewards come at a great cost – years of experience required to make it to the big time (121 airline flt ops), most of these guys are college grads and ex-mil (again, requiring a Bachelor’s degree), and have accrued many missed days/nights away from home. Also, an airline pilot is constantly undergoing evals, recurrent/upgrade training, and new tech (advanced avionics, different a/c types/models, etc.) training. Then there’s also the ever-present risk of an unexpected med issue resulting loss of flight status. So yeah, these guys earn a lot, but they’re worth a lot, especially considering the multi-million $$$ transport category a/c they’re flying around and the incredible cost of training (go price out a B777 type rating). Like surgeons, pilots prove their high value not during the long and uneventful intl flights up at cruise, but when thing quickly unravel and their experience, skills, and ADM are required to avert a disaster.
As for FDX, they are undergoing a monumental ops, financial, and cultural shift. They have always been top-heavy and the corp streamlining now occurring probably should’ve been done 20 years ago. FDX had way too many opcos and consolidation was clearly needed and it will be the way of the future. Like many large firms, FDX is now needing to carefully scrutinize how they conduct their business ops and carefully evaluate proposed measures (reduction in travel, min staffing levels, etc.) for effectiveness and implementation costs. To date, FDX is proud that they (unlike the pax airlines) have never furloughed a single pilot (or mx tech for that matter), I’m certain upper level management desires to maintain that record. Lastly, FDX is undergoing a monumental and fundamental cultural shift – Fred is stepping aside and new leadership has taken the reins. Sure, these folks have come in and are doing what any new upper mgmnt does – observe, assess, plan, and execute. The old days of all-hands-on-deck to move boxes, absolutely positively overnight, have morphed into how can we smartly and efficiently move boxes? FDX isn’t just some wacky outfit out of MEM with a unique business model anymore. They’ll have to change, innovate, adapt, and overcome both the internal (hopefully manageable) and external (totally unpredictable) challenges now present and on the horizon to maintain their status – lots of work to be done there at FDX….
@ Flt – I didn’t say anything about underqualified. Not sure there is such a thing as being overpaid – more the better. But certainly outsized pay for what they actually do, which is great. Again, no college degrees are required. Constant evaluations, lifelong recurring training and training for new technology, domestic sacrifices, etc. – these are not exceptional requirements and many good paying blue collar jobs have them. Skills that improve with experience – that’s a universal truth. Lets not compare pilots to doctors (12+ years post-secondary & residency). Again, not easy by any means, but just about anyone has the capacity to 1) become a pilot and 2) become a good one with training and experience. There are variations in any profession, and I’m sure there are great ones like yourself and not-so-great ones. With outsized pay and respect, and no significant educational/talent/intelligence barriers (unlike doctors), it will be great if more folks look into this profession. For the same reasons, it will be great if more folks looked into becoming coders.