A first generation vaccine, unless it turns out to be both highly effective and widely taken, won’t end the pandemic on its own. I wrote back in early summer that a first generation vaccine, on its own, probably wouldn’t get us out of the pandemic but combined with other measures would make life – and travel – more normal than it used to be. We now have a new study, with new math, backing up this view.
How effective these first vaccines turn out to be, combined with how many people take them, will drive when mask mandates go away. A ‘vaccine only’ isn’t going to do it. We’re going to be stuck wearing masks on planes for some time.