Reader Matt was flying United and Saturday, and reports that his flight’s captain announced United had become the largest airline and asked whether this was true?
Wondering if you’ve heard anything about a change in airline size rankings. I know there are several ways to measure size, and that being the best is more important than being the biggest…
United was the largest back in the 90s, then dropped to number 2 behind American, then even down to number 3 behind Delta for a few years. Back up to number 2 and now I’m hearing back to number 1.
The captain on my UA flight today announced it, along with mentioning that yesterday, the 3rd, UA flew more mainline flights than ever in the company’s history, with 700 more planes on older.
He asks the question of aviation watchdog JonNYC as well,
“The captain on my UA flight today announced UA just became the largest airline in the world again. Guessing by RPMs, the most traditional way of measuring this. Have you seen data to back this up? True? I was thinking only a matter of time, with all the new aircraft “
— 🇺🇦 JonNYC 🇺🇦 (@xJonNYC) March 5, 2023
According to schedule data from Cirium Diio Mi, American Airlines is the largest U.S. (and world) airline by flights and seats flown, but United Airlines is the largest in March schedules by seat miles flown. United flies big planes farther.
| Airline | Flights | Seats | Seat Miles |
| American | 97,412 | 16,878,887 | 20,649,460,410 |
| Delta | 94,006 | 15,993,662 | 21,018,083,844 |
| United | 76,355 | 13,391,429 | 22,333,871,945 |
American Airlines operates 28% more flights than United does. They’re flying more seats than United is. But United produces more seat miles, which is to say that they are flying more seats farther than American is.
United Airlines claims to be the ‘flag carrier’ of the United States, because it flies to more international destinations than other carriers. Legally, though, the designation of flag carrier in the U.S. simply means that it has been granted the authority to fly to international destinations. However traditionally the term means that an airline, usually government-backed, is the representative of its country abroad.
By one measure, available seat miles or ‘ASMs’, United Airlines is the world’s largest airline. Yes this isn’t, in fact, new! United was 2% larger (while lagging substantially in flights and seats) in February, and was larger in January too. In fact United became largest by ASMs in August 2022.
United is the largest breaker of guitars. They also beat the crap out of passengers and drag them off their planes. Why aren’t they bragging about that?
@Gary, please don’t fuss over this issue any further. United is back to being the largest in the world by this the most important metric, but will be by ALL metrics alone by the 3rd quarter of this year. They are expected to take in 149 new aircraft this year in accordance with the United Next initiative. As I’ve stated before, AA is in a contractionary cycle, United’s expansionary. Just imagine that alone, where will that position them. It’ll have the most seats, the most, by a long stretch, aircraft, daily departures etc etc. So, for you to keep dwelling on this inevitable event, seem to me as being a complete fools errand. IMO. It’s just going to naturally take place.
@Alan, don’t forget killer of animals too.
AA is the largest and will be for decades to come.
United lost any credibility when they recently announced that they are the best airline in the world.
I take all these announcements with the proverbial grain of salt. I’ve lived long enough (I’m a Senior) to know that the “stated result,” is very frequently the result of how you “massage” the available data (or stats) to support your desired position, or POV. All I really care about, no matter the airline I happen to be flying (I regularly use 4 different lines, according to my best choice for schedule, price, destination, etc.), is that I get to my destination safely, efficiently, with decent costs and service. Air travel is, for me, a necessity, and I try to be an intelligent, informed, passenger, thus to minimize potential problems.
“…and I try to be an intelligent, informed, passenger, thus to minimize potential problems.”
Given most conversations here, obviously, you’re at the wrong blog. 😉
Richard is absolutely right.
There are multiple ways of measuring size, and as much as United would like to believe otherwise, how much CAPACITY you put into a market is the least relevant. Available seat miles (ASMs) are a measure of capacity yet what really matters in terms of traffic metrics is how many seats you actually sell to revenue paying passengers TIMES the distance you fly them. If all of the airlines above filled the same percentage of seats across their networks, then United would be the largest in terms of RPMs but is not at all true that United will even fill the same percentage of seats as other carriers.
United Airlines is first and foremost a for-profit business and the statistic that matters the most is net profits. Based on that metric, United led the industry for a small period of last year but not even for the whole year. For the first quarter (the one we are currently in), Delta’s net profits are expected to be larger – and that is even with the one-time payment that Delta will be making to its pilots for retroactive pay that is part of the labor agreement that Delta’s pilots just approved. Even for all of 2023, Delta’s net profits are expected to be the largest in the world.
It is also notable that United will never generate the highest profits of all US airlines for two major reasons – UAL’s credit card deal is not near as lucrative as American or Delta’s and United pays the highest amount per gallon for jet fuel of the big 4; Southwest hedges which usually gives it the lowest price of the big 4 while Delta’s refinery is reducing its costs on average about 25 cents/gallon. Delta paid more than $1.5 billion LESS for jet fuel than United in 2022.
Regarding United’s massive fleet growth, Delta has far more new generation widebody aircraft entering service this year: Delta has 12 A330NEOs and A350-900s coming into service in 2023, including ex-Latam A350s that were purchased earlier but are now entering service. United has JUST TWO new 787s entering service this year. Next year, Delta has 16 A330NEOs and new A350-900s entering service while United has 8. United only provides investor guidance for new aircraft deliveries by year through 2024. Delta has nearly 100 narrowbody aircraft entering service this year, a combination of new aircraft and the used B737-900ERs that Delta acquired last year. While United has a larger international fleet, the international growth rate for Delta is currently much faster than United. Delta is also expected to place an order for A350-1000s and more A330-900s soon which will keep their new international aircraft deliveries on par with United if it chooses. Domestically, much of United’s domestic mainline growth is to replace regional jets including 50 passenger models which Delta has far less need to do; it will have its last contracted 50 seat regional jet within months.
Southwest’s growth has been hindered because of the MAX 7, of which Southwest is the largest customer is still not certified so their new capacity is reduced. The MAX 7 is expected to be delivered before the MAX 10 is certified; much of United’s fleet growth is tied to the MAX 10 of which United is the largest customer. While United is switching orders to the MAX 9, there is a size gap in the two models and United’s growth will be slowed even if it continues to be able to switch orders to the MAX9.
The only financial metric that United will lead in will be debt and aircraft ownership costs, including lease costs. American for years has held that title but is slowing its aircraft spending because it has a young fleet and has a large fleet of large narrowbodies, precisely what United is trying to do. United cannot possibly generate more cash than American or United which is the only way their aircraft ownership costs are going to soar with their fleet replacement. Delta has the lowest debt of the big 3 and also generated the most free cash – after paying down more debt than any other US airline in 2022. American is committed to debt reduction and has made solid progress which will increase its profits as it uses less cash for debt payment.
United is touting the single metric that they THINK matters when it is not only the one that matters the least as an airline and as a business but their financial metrics will continue to lag the rest of the industry.
I would much prefer being the best airline in the world rather than the biggest. United States carriers have a long way to go to become the best.
I rarely measure the value of an airline by “who’s the biggest” Rather, which delivers the better service. I’m both AA ExPlat and UA 1K. The 1K experience is much better. I’ve yet to have a call to the AA ExPlat hotline answered by a human being unless I’m willing to wait 30 minutes. A call to the 1K line gets answered within the first 5 minutes or less, except in exceptional circumstances such as simultaneous bad weather at multiple UA hubs.
Being based in Dallas my flight volume will drift to AA just due to convenience. But the ExPlat experience is dismal. AA only cares if you are CK. Otherwise you are an annoyance.
Tim Dunn’s above bloviation was summed up years ago by Mark Twain.who observed, “There are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Two questions come to mind (which I tend to ask too often)::
1. Do size comparisons like these really matter?
2. When did it become a felony for different airlines to have different business models?
Ghost,
it doesn’t take a poet or author to know that the real issue is that you simply refuse to believe any fact that doesn’t meet the narrative you want to push. Facts be damned if they tell a story you don’t want to hear.
The simple reality is that I said for years – to great reader consternation including from you – that American was losing hundreds of millions of dollars per year flying Pacific routes that they they thought were strategically important. AA execs admitted BEFORE the pandemic that, indeed, AA was losing lots of money flying the Pacific and they gave back their authority to fly LAX-Beijing while trying to move LAX-Shanghai to Seattle – a route they have still not been given to change and probably never will start. They also dropped LAX-Hong Kong and have no intention of reinstating ANY HKG flights even as some people decried that Delta pulled out of HKG several years before the pandemic, citing poor financial performance. I noted that United lost money flying the Pacific for a number of years -not near as much as American – but still hard to understand given that UA was the largest carrier across the Pacific pre-pandemic. United has since come out and said, they too lost money flying to China and HKG and, surprise, surprise, they are now making money flying the Pacific now that their China and HKG service has been cut WAY back.
Delta saw the China/HKG market for what it was while AA and UA battled for strategic pride -and yet Delta STILL was the 2nd largest carrier across the Pacific even before covid. Delta was also the ONLY one of the FOUR US airlines that flew to Asia that made money pre-covid.
And many people, including Gary, failed to read Delta’s financial statements about its refinery because they parroted the often-spoke mantra that the refinery lost money for years – excluding the billion dollars that the refinery saved Delta in lower fuel costs in the decade after it bought the refinery and more than a billion dollars since the pandemic as the current administration has declared a war on fossil fuels.
Delta simply saw a shift in fuel supplies and pricing happening a decade before it actually happened and are cleaning up more than ever. A decade ago Delta also realized that the economics of 50 passenger regional jets wouldn’t work and Delta acquired used 717s previously operated by AirTran, got Southwest and Boeing to pay for reconfiguring them, and will remove the 50 passenger regional jet from Delta’s fleet while American and United will continue to operate hundreds of the pesky and inefficient little jets including the CRJ550 that United put in service because it refused to buy a small mainline jet – such as the A220-100 or E2 jet – even as Delta has two aircraft in that class – and the smallest regional jet fleet as a percent of domestic capacity of the 4 airlines that operate regional jets in the US.
And United has touted its massive fleet replacement -and yet not only does Delta not need as many new jets as United because Delta saw its fleet needs years before American and United, but Delta also got rid of the 777 during the pandemic and now operates the most efficient widebody fleet among US airlines and one of the most efficient among ALL global carriers; United still operates the world’s largest passenger fleet of 777-200/ERs and will be saddled with 777-300ER costs per seat that are more than 25% higher for either version of the A350. Delta also managed to pick up used 737-900ERs for far less than United is paying for 737MAXs that United probably won’t even get this year. Delta’s fuel efficiency is more than 7% better than American and Untied because of Delta’s more efficient international fleet and far smaller regional jet fleets.
Delta has simply out strategized American and United for many, many years and it isn’t changing any time soon.
American and Untied, like Delta are for profit companies whose FIRST priority is to maximize the value to its owners – IOW the shareholders. There is nothing wrong with having different strategies but it is a mark of significantly less endorsement for AA and UA’s strategies from their owners than for DL; Delta IS the most valuable US airline to the marketplace for good reasons.
American is recognizing what dragged down its financial performance while United is repeating some of American’s very same strategies – including buying far more aircraft than UA can possibly pay for without raising its debt – THE VERY SAME thing that AA did.
Not surprisingly, Scott Kirby was instrumental in that massive spending spree at AA and is doing THE VERY SAME THING at UA – with results that will be no different than at AA.
It doesn’t really matter if you or anyone else doesn’t like facts that are still facts no matter how inconvenient they may be.
@ Dunn, [redacted -gl] The fact of the matter is , the hard truth, UNITED just became the largest airline in the world, again, nothing new. DL just fell to the third place, suck on it. @Desert Ghost, hey buddy,[redacted -gl], this is a show you won’t want to miss!! So bring it on Dunn, cmon, give me your best lying shot!!!
@Tim Dunn – just because Delta spins a positive story on the refinery doesn’t make it a good investment. It wasn’t, but energy was a real winner the past couple of years [after being a huge loser early in the pandemic]
Gary,
any asset that Delta spent less than a half billion dollars to acquire and has now returned two billion IS a good investment, esp. since it is a multi-billion dollar cost advantage RIGHT NOW. The ROI on that investment over the first ten years was not acceptable to Delta but I can absolutely assure you it is now.
But you can keep arguing about how Delta is just spinning – they don’t even talk about the refinery and just let their financial statements tell the story while Delta records hundreds of millions of dollars lower fuel prices -and that is before Delta’s higher fleet fuel efficiency.
American’s fuel bill for 2022 was $13.8 billion to generate $49 billion in total operating revenues, burning 3.9 billion gallons of jet fuel at $3.54/gallon.
Delta’s fuel bill for 2022 was $11.5 billion to generate $50.6 billion in total operating revenues, burning 3.4 billion gallons of jet fuel at $3.36/gallon.
United’s fuel bill for 2022 was $13.1 billion to generate $45 billion in total operating revenues, burning 3.6 billion gallons of jet fuel at $3.63/gallon.
Delta generated more total revenue than any other airline while burning far less fuel and paying less for each gallon and more than $1.6 billion less for the year than United and $2.3 billion less than American.
Even you yourself have finally come to admit that Delta has the highest value loyalty program – and it is simply not something that United can match; AA has a slightly better chance but they lag in areas.
As much as GPG wants to tout “world’s biggest” based on how many seat miles UAL flies (whether they get more money for those seats or not), all UAL’s statistic proves is that they work harder to make less revenue and profit than better run carriers. The only statistic that UAL succeeded in is paying the most for jet fuel per gallon of any big 4.
oh, and GPG, tell the SEC and the institutional investors that own the US airline industry that they are looking at ALL of the wrong metrics. Or you can admit that Scott Kirby’s ego continues to grasp for success and that eluded him at AA so he has gone to Chicago and being the top dog is still nowhere in his future.
I thought Southwest which flew rhe most passangers in the US was the largest airline in America:)
@ Dunn, the statistics above mentioned are the true cold facts. They’re not dependent on Scott Kirby, his facts or yours…It’s is what it is, today UNITED won the battle. It officially became, once again, the LARGEST AIRLINE IN THE WORLD, it’s not dependent on how you spin this or what you or your alternative facts may believe. Pretty soon, 4 to 6 months, it will be the largest airline in the world based on all other metrics, numbers of airplanes, departures, seats available etc etc. and it doesn’t matter what YOU or Gary or any other of the naysayers think or opine, facts are facts, the truth is the truth, so fess up, buckle up and accept that DL has already fallen to third place. Deal with it and grow up!!!
@Tim Dunn, I don’t know why you keep coming back to profitability as the only metric worth measuring. It’s entirely possible for a company to be larger than yet less profitable than another. Net profits are not a measure of company size, as I am sure you know. Further, for us consumers, we care about a lot of things an airline does that aren’t related to profitability. Unless you are an investor, what’s with the obsession with profitability? It’s a measure, but it’s not the inly measure that matters when it comes to customer satisfaction, and it’s not a measure of who is biggest, if one cares about these things.
@Brian W Gasser – largest domestic vs largest overall
Pretty pretentious of United, claiming to be the flag carrier of the United States. We haven’t had a national flag carrier since PanAm imploded, if they ever even were de jure, and not just in a de facto pop-cultural sense.
United IS a for profit company just like every US airline.
there are plenty of ways to measure size in any company but ultimately how profitable a company is matters not just to investors but also to customers and employees. The reason why Delta has been able to raise the pay for its employees as much as it has is because it is expected to be so much more profitable.
United’s pilot union told its members that they are far apart meaning that not only will there be incredible frustration which could lead to customer service declines but United could become less attractive for new airline employee candidates. The ability to invest in service is directly related to how much money a company makes.
Luke is right; there is no single US flag carrier but United arrogantly touts its size when it has absolutely no advantage in gaining access to international routes over any other US airline that has done what it needs to in order to wear the US flag on its aircraft.
By the same token, United has decided to tout its current size based on capacity – before traffic or revenue statistics have even come in – while forgetting (or ignoring) that they swept the industry in profitability for precisely one quarter last year – but still lost money for the year while both Delta and Southwest outperformed United in profits for the year – and that was even with Southwest’s costly Christmas disaster.
When someone or an organization is successful, they don’t need to keep comparing themselves to everyone else w/ superlatives that likely won’t be sustained.
The airline industry is very strong for each of the big 3. The real arrogance and downright lie is for United and its fan kids like GPG to think that United will be able to corner growth and profits and others won’t share in it. In fact, the math says that United at best will still be middle of the pack and could trade places with American as being the LEAST profitable of the big 4 precisely because of fuel costs and lower loyalty revenue than American and Delta.
Lol “fan kids.” Glass houses, etc.
there is nothing wrong with being a fan of anything – except when believing what the “club” says either doesn’t matter or is patently false.
IN this case, airlines don’t even report capacity or traffic on a monthly basis any more – but they used to. The biggest airline that changed that habit was American – back when Scott Kirby was still there. American made the case at the time that the monthly cyclicality of traffic – often affected by major weather events – was not a helpful basis for comparison.
But United now seems to want to tout capacity on a monthly basis when THEY don’t even report it that way. Does anyone not realize that the reason why US airlines report capacity and traffic – now done quarterly on the same basis as financial results – is because it is an indicator of how well or poorly an airline is doing?
So it should raise red flags that United even made a statement about monthly capacity.
And, as was seen before, United crowed about being at the top of industry in terms of profitability in the 3rd quarter of last year – and yet they still had larger losses in the first half of the year so their large profits in the 3rd quarter weren’t enough to make their more profitable for the year. When a company touts their achievements in tiny little increments of time, they set themselves up for comparison in other periods of equally small amounts of time -and United is not expected to outperform anyone at least in the current quarter and perhaps not for all of 2023.
and then there are statements which Scott Kirby has made at both American and United that indicates his deep-seated need to try to do better than Delta – and those statements can be found in reading AAL and UAL’s earnings call transcripts.
there is nothing wrong with being a fan of anything – except when believing what the “club” says either doesn’t matter or is patently false.
IN this case, airlines don’t even report capacity or traffic on a monthly basis any more – but they used to. The biggest airline that changed that habit was American – back when Scott Kirby was still there. American made the case at the time that the monthly cyclicality of traffic – often affected by major weather events – was not a helpful basis for comparison.
But United now seems to want to tout capacity on a monthly basis when THEY don’t even report it that way. Does anyone not realize that the reason why US airlines report capacity and traffic – now done quarterly on the same basis as financial results – is because it is an indicator of how well or poorly an airline is doing?
So it should raise red flags that United even made a statement about monthly capacity.
And, as was seen before, United crowed about being at the top of industry in terms of profitability in the 3rd quarter of last year – and yet they still had larger losses in the first half of the year so their large profits in the 3rd quarter weren’t enough to make their more profitable for the year. When a company touts their achievements in tiny little increments of time, they set themselves up for comparison in other periods of equally small amounts of time -and United is not expected to outperform anyone at least in the current quarter and perhaps not for all of 2023.
and then there are statements which Scott Kirby has made at both American and United that indicates his deep-seated need to try to do better than Delta – and those statements can be found in reading AAL and UAL’s earnings call transcripts.
Just with the huge Boeing order, Kirby said that United needed to place an order the size that it did because there would not be availability for follow on orders – and a whole lot of people believed him. The simple fact is that Airbus and Boeing are not about to sell out their entire production capacity to any single customer for even a month. They serve hundreds of customers and cannot risk not being able to get orders because they don’t have production and delivery slots.
Scott Kirby has been driven by his ego for years – because that is the only way he could make some of the statements that he does – and he does it on a regular basis.
And then you have the statement about United being the US’ flag carrier when there is no such thing.
And as many people have noted, the vast majority of the public doesn’t even know or care what airline is the largest; all they care about if they even look at size is specific to the cities or routes they want to fly.
If you’re really the biggest and/or best, people will know. You don’t have to repeatedly tell them minutiae when the real reason for saying it is boost your own self-worth.
The simple reality is that Gary’s question should have been “does this matter” and then “is it true”
United is the worst airlines in the world, how’s that for their designation? They have the nastiest people working there especially their gate agents. I had an argument with one some 8 years ago about my upgrade. She was so nasty to me and refused to give me her name when I asked for it; and to rub it in my face and I’m sure it was a deliberate move, the flight attendant asked the couple sitting next to me if they’d like to be upgraded to first class. I will never ever fly with them again even if they’re the last airlines in the world.
There’s every problem with being a fan when it blinds your objectivity, which I know you prize, and is your very criticism here. So, I’ll repeat the Tim Dunn challenge: Name one substantive thing you think AA or UA does better than Delta. Or, to phrase it differently, one substantive thing you think Delta does poorly relative to UA or AA. You didn’t do it last time. Because you can’t do it.
Wow, you know you’ve *REALLY* gotten under Tim Dunn’s skin when he writes 3,168 words of comments responding to a post that only has 404 words!! ;-D
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: from a *passenger’s* perspective – which is the only perspective I care about – I want an airline with massive reach that’s only mildly profitable because *those profits come out of my airfares*. Why would I want to give an airline more of my money than necessary to get me somewhere. And United has Delta solidly beat on that – ASMs, destinations, and reasonable/non-monopolistic fares.
Now Tim you can write another 1,000 words about why only profits and shareholders matter that we all roll our eyes at…
Tory,
your perspective is true if you are a customer – but customers never are going to make the best decisions for a business; there is clearly a conflict of interest that SHOULD exist. If a company is too greedy, customers walk away, if the company doesn’t invest enough, the company dies.
The reality, specific to this conversation, is that UA is focused on the same ego stroking by touting a metric that ultimately doesn’t mean anything esp. when using just a month. You as a customer aren’t going to know the difference of whether UA added enough seats to make it #1 or #3. Filled seats matter more than just the total number of seats. Most importantly, the amount of revenue an airline gets for those seats matters the most.
It is very possible – if not likely that DL gets more revenue and profit from 2 2500 mile trips within the US than UA gets from one 5000 mile trip – and yet they have the potential to generate the same number of ASMs.
UA underinvested in its business for years and made strategic mistakes – they relied too much on 50 passenger aircraft, have the oldest fleet and the most fuel inefficient widebody fleet – a terrible position for an airline that has such a large international network to be in. They flew significant portions of their network at a loss which means that size does not matter.
UA’s fleet costs will soar far above any other airline in pursuit of Kirby’s goal of being able to place the largest order by a US airline.
Plenty of US airlines have paid a high price = and so did their customers – for executive ego.
Tim Dunn, you have failed the Tim Dunn Challenge again!