Top Analyst Warns United: MileagePlus Changes Could Kill Loyalty—’If You Don’t Have Their Credit Card, You Don’t Matter’

United announced that they are slashing points-earning for flights by up to 40% unless you have one of their credit cards. If you do, you’ll earn slightly more.

And they’re making it both official policy and clear marketing that awards are more incrementally more expensive both for customers who do not have status status and who do not have the credit card.

This is all part of the airline’s goal to raise MileagePlus profits by 50% in four years, something the carrier attempted and failed at before.

Henry Harteveldt offered some words of wisdom on this effort on this week’s Airlines Confidential.

  • It’s fair for United to try this
  • There’s no mistaking that the credit card drives profit, and the airline views those customers with the card as valuable (and those without it not valuable)
  • But the effort has risks, and leaves out a lot of loyal customers.

I’ve actually managed these programs when they were really called loyalty programs and they were about loyalty and we have to remember loyalty is an emotion and it’s a two-way street.

…We can’t call these loyalty programs anymore and we can’t and shouldn’t call them frequent flyer programs anymore. These are travel spend programs and what United is saying to people very clearly is if you don’t carry a Chase co-branded credit card with United, you literally do not matter as much to us. Your money is not as green as the person who has that credit card…

That’s United’s prerogative as the business owner and they certainly have created a lot of incentives for people to carry the credit card now in some ways they copied Delta, Delta and Amex give you a 15% discount on award redemption if you have one of the qualifying Delta American Express co-brand credit cards and..

…[W]hat this does is feed the decline that we are seeing in our research about brand loyalty to airlines. We had seen in our research that we conduct every year with 5,000 or more airline passengers in the US that it had been hovering around 13% to 14% of airline passengers saying they are loyal to at least one airline or airline alliance. in our 2026 most recent survey that has now declined to just under 12%. So congratulations, airlines, you’re so focused on the credit cards that you’re killing people who might otherwise form loyalty to you. And I consider myself a free agent. I know a lot of other people who consider themselves free agents. And I think that there’s a risk some of this might unintentionally backfire on some of the airlines.

[There are people] who would look at this and say if I carry a certain Chase United card, I can almost double the number of miles earned on my eligible spending. And for them if that’s what they value and if it works for them financially terrific and that’s fine and they have the carrot in that they do offer lower award redemption levels again that’s fine that you know it’s how United is choosing to go to market but there are people who can’t or don’t want to get another credit card and there is a risk that some of those consumers may say well United just really doesn’t value my business or me so I’m not going to avoid United but I won’t necessarily seek them out either.

Henry makes the important point that there are customers who won’t or can’t get the card, but whose business the airline still wants. United is a global airline with important customers around the world without access to a United credit card. United has plenty of customers not in a position to get a card. That’s not just poor credit, but also new credit – an expat business executive flying worldwide in business class but without a deep U.S. credit history.

I’d add that in many cases these U.S. customers who don’t yet have deep credit are among the people most likely to get the card in the future.

  • They grow and mature and earn more and build credit
  • And they’re already flying United, love the brand and the program

United is trading ‘let’s convert everyone we can to the card now, with a stick as well as a carrot’ for cultivating customers who will help their card portfolio grow over time – in fact, chasing those customers away telling them that today they aren’t valuable.

They’re doing this, too, by eliminating all mileage-earning on basic economy fares. If all a member does is earn on a few basic economy trips, they won’t have enough points for a redemption and costs to the program. Those redeemable miles matter only if the member engages further. But these fares are often younger, newer travelers – and you want them joining the program and feeding the top of the funnel for cardmember acquisition.

It’s an open question how big an effect these changes will have on the pool of members who don’t have United cards today but who may in the future. They’re going to add some cardmembers now defensively who don’t want to lose value from MileagePlus, but they’re also going to chase away other customers who will never get the card as a result.

Is this a brilliant move, or one that takes the shift to being ‘just a card program’ too far?

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

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Comments

  1. I’d argue, the airline hardly matters anymore, because the fundamentals are basically all credit card, point program, banks with wings, etc. It’d sure be swell if we could get back to actually flying…

  2. Quite a gamble for a company that doesn’t even seem to get along with its card issuer.

    I also thought they wanted to make a NYC push. Unless you live in the west village/downtown, you’re not looking to go to EWR. So you’re trying to win people away from DL, folks who are thrilled with their Amex/DL cards, and putting a barrier up?

    Don’t get it, but it’s their company…

  3. I know of no 18–25 traveler who has enough RDMs for award travel that has accrued them through seat-miles. Anyone who’s trying to get RDMs is already using cards to supplement their (usually de minimis) travel. Sure, they’ll be valuable in the future, but the way they become valuable is by getting richer (and flying more) at which point airlines can do targeted acquisition. Delta’s free Silver giveaways were a great example of this. They got younger travelers to understand status, made the value of the CC more tangible, and even if they didn’t get immediate conversion, they got customers who appreciate the brand (and will when they graduate from ULCCs for leisure). A sign-up isn’t sticky, especially for someone flying BE (who will fly anybody). RDMs from seat-miles aren’t sticky, either. CC sign-ups are, and I’d bet the carrot brings those 18–25s into the fold, particularly those based in core markets.

  4. I’m the type of customer I would think United would be trying to convert. Live in Northern NJ, EWR is home airport. Delta diamond for years. Once in while fly United, but they always disappoint. They make no effort to convert me. Now I’m even less inclined to fly them.

  5. The concept of “loyalty” with respect to airlines or hotels is overrated. No one should be “loyal” to any company unless the arrangement works for them. I’d argue the majority of people “loyal” to any airline are those that find the airline’s schedule and destinations best suit them. I have zero loyalty and fly or stay where I want. If I want benefits I just pay for them. Lot easier and less drama.

  6. Frequent flyers on United will get a card. The cost of the Explorer is low enough to be rounding error on their travel budgets.
    For most others, carriers are commodities. They’ll just pick amongst the many options.

  7. The problem is Chase Bank. I applied for that credit card. I have excellent credit I carry all the major cards Amex Platinum, Venture X, Chase Sapphire. But was denied the United card because I don’t have a mortgage and I refuse to have a car payment. You have to be in debt to be approved they can keep it!

  8. @ Retired Gambler — Yea, loyalty is dead. Alaska and Hyatt were the last to fall. Maybe there is some off the radar hotel program left? GDA?

  9. True free agent here. I gave up on “loyalty”. Loyalty program execs move the goalposts too often. So what’s the point anymore?

  10. I mainly have the Explorer card for the early boarding (I hate checking bags). It also helps that I live in Chicago where I can get pretty much anywhere non-stop on United. I rarely use miles, and then it’s usually to give them to family members. Miles have been so devalued that they are not an incentive for me.

  11. I was just listening to The Air Show’s talk on this. They were saying some who can’t get the credit card can still get the United debit card for some rewards.

    UA won’t make as much off of debit card usage, but it was described as an investment in people who might have the credit card some point in the future.

  12. After many years as a 1K with both the Gateway and Business Explorer card, I decided to go (mostly) free agent. Canceled both cards. It’s been worth it so far. No engagement with UA for the past year and now even more likely that I won’t fly them (unless it’s cheap and convenient).

  13. It’s a business, they should try it & see if it works & makes sense for their business. I definitely have fading loyalty to AA (EXP, > 8 million miles) and generally avoid AA internationally whenever possible. I have 2 Turkish flights coming up because the J fares were thousands less than AA/OneWorld. So much easier than contorting myself around routing & dates trying to use AA SWU’s.

  14. Yet another reason NOT to fly UA. Personally I have enough credit cards and am not really interested in getting more. And despite the fact that my home airport is one of United’s largest hubs (SFO), I haven’t been on a UA flight since March 2023., and February 2022 before that. They certainly aren’t doing anything to make me *want* to fly them…

  15. Credit cards make the profits for the US4 and more and more loyalty programs are going to shift from flying based to the level of co-branded credit cards use.

  16. I live in Colorado. Companion with WN for 15 years. Tried to switch loyalty to UA last fall taking advantage of their loyalty match program. It was too hard. Also tried to get a UA credit card to help juice the process. Denied twice. My credit score is 835. I gave up trying to do business with them. Went back to southwest

  17. I recently returned from Japan to my home 21 miles from ATL on UA, HND-EWR-ATL. I used an award redemption for the two of us at 100K each in business & first. DL wanted 495K each. I’ve gotten several United credit cards over the last few years plus a couple of non-United Chase cards. I dropped Delta like a bad habit when I retired and had to pay my own way. Get a damn United card, skip the lousy meal, wear the pajamas and get some sleep in the decent seat. Problem solved.

  18. Living for the past seven years in Europe, I cannot get a United Card. So, how many expats are turned off about UA’s actions, especially to its highest-ranking Mileage Plus members. Well, me for one. Next time I consider if I will fly back to the States. it won’t be on United. I have 46 years of loyalty. Where’s the love United!! Free agency at last. Of course, the really first free agent was Jim “Catfish” Hunter. How’s that for trivia?

    As for Henry Harteveldt, he may be the frequent flyer expert, but grammar never entered into it. “And for them if that’s what they value and if it works for them financially terrific and that’s fine and they have the carrot in that they do offer lower award redemption levels again that’s fine that you know it’s how United is choosing to go to market but there are people who can’t or don’t want to get another credit card and there is a risk that some of those consumers may say well United just really doesn’t value my business or me so I’m not going to avoid United but I won’t necessarily seek them out either.” I guess the man never met a comma, semi-colon, or period he liked.

  19. Its wild to me seeing all the people saying they wont fly United anymore because theyre earning 1-2 less miles per dollar lol.

  20. They keep sending me mailers for their cards so I finally applied knowing I would probably get denied due to 5/24 and that’s exactly what happened. 815 credit score got all the major cards. Oh well they matched me to 1k but won’t give me a card go figure.

  21. I imagine this wouldn’t change my travel habits if I didn’t have a co-brand credit card which is probably why they went for it. T’was only a matter of time I suppose.

    (On the bright side, my 2026 UA luggage tags came in the mail today — woohoo!)

  22. I looked at award seats NRT -SFO and saw that credit card holders get discounts only on economy seats. Will dump the credit card if this is what having the card means

  23. I like this policy. Airlines should price their product based on how much spend you have on their credit card. They have the process backwards.

  24. It needs to be points only earned when PAID with a cobranded credit card.

    That would stop the obscene amounts of points given out to OPM flyers who dont pay for their own tickets, and are only causing further miles inflation and devaluation.

  25. Good product generates so profitable repeat buy (“loyalty”), not the frequent flyer program

    This is especially true with today’s programs as they’re all so complicated to require a PhD in math and you still have no idea how many miles that vacation with the family in Hawaii will cost (both due to incessant devaluation and the lack of fixed redemptions).

  26. I have always shied away from United because they do not allow a carry-on bag with a Basic Economy ticket. I cannot believe they have held firm all these years with that policy when the other US carriers do permit a carry-on with BE. I do not have a United credit card to solve that issue nor plan to get one. This change just adds fuel to the fire to be at the bottom of my choices.

  27. @Tony, I always take proclamations of abandoning airline X with a grain of salt, but it’s not just earning 1-2 points less per less. There are legit gripes here: you could be a 1K on United and have to pay 15% more for an award redemption than someone who rarely flies the airline, or even worse, just not have access at all to business class award seats that they release to other customers. That’s a pretty lousy way to treat your best customers… unless, of course, your best customer is Chase!

  28. “[There are people] who would look at this and say if I carry a certain Chase United card, I can almost double the number of miles earned on my eligible spending. And for them if that’s what they value and if it works for them financially terrific and that’s fine and they have the carrot in that they do offer lower award redemption levels again that’s fine that you know it’s how United is choosing to go to market but there are people who can’t or don’t want to get another credit card and there is a risk that some of those consumers may say well United just really doesn’t value my business or me so I’m not going to avoid United but I won’t necessarily seek them out either.]”

    I’d add that there are also people – I’m one of them – who think this move is egregious enough that I will move United to last place in my “which airline should I fly” hierarchy. So yes, I will try to avoid them, I will only do so if they are much less expensive (which is NEVER the case) or if they offer such a markedly better schedule option that it’s worth slumming by flying them.

  29. Hope this blows up in their face. I won’t put $10,000 on the Gateway ($0 annual fee), so I need to get the $150/year for a card that gives me virtually nothing. I fly F/J only, so free bags don’t work. 2 club visits might not be used as international J gets Polaris anyway. 25% discount on inflight purchases I never make? Just realize UA that you’ll have to be, what, maybe 5% less on a flight than AA or DL to be considered.

  30. We should start with the obvious: they know more about the customers than we do. But if I’m trying to parse this, I think: 1) this will not be a big incentive to engage with the program if you don’t already; 2) it will motivate engaged people that dabble in other programs to come back home to United to deepen their relationship. In essence, you can push the more profitable customers further into your ecosystem, and you can separate them from the casuals. My guess is United is thinking they will benefit from goosing the engagement of some more than they will lose from casuals. I am a United casual. This will not motivate me to get a CC (I’ll get one when I need some miles or a bag). I did recently book an Air Canada flight through United and credit it to UA because I also don’t engage a lot with Aeroplan — I might choose to engage with Aeroplan next time. But that’s marginal to them. I’ll still take United flights when price and schedule dictate, which is not that often. I’ll occasionally use them when they have partner awards that are the most attractive, which is not that often. Unless you are elite, the mileage is tertiary to price and schedule. And there are plenty of non-US airlines offering long haul awards to/from the US — I don’t need to be on UA metal.

  31. For an airline with a massive international network, United just flipped the bird to every customer who isn’t US based.
    Some years back there were about 1500 1Ks in Australia and many thousands more at Platinum and Gold.
    Personally I’m UA lifetime Gold earnt on my own dime but went free agent once mile earn rates and saver awards evaporated as that was all that kept me on their flying bus service .

    If Trump forces US banks to only allow proven US citizens to have bank accounts then credit card use will plummet. That’s called sovereign risk.

  32. Someone tell Scott Kirby that you can’t quantify loyalty via a spreadsheet. Loyalty is ethereal and doesn’t neatly fit into one easily defined set of criteria. Which is why loyalty can be easily disrupted if you do the wrong thing. I have had two UA cards for nearly 20 years (one is a legacy Continental Master Card) so this is a non-issue for me and SFO is my home base so if I fly I tend to fly UA more often than not. However I moved my spend off of UA cards five years ago when the Sapphire Preferred and then the Reserve came out as it turned me into a free agent that could still put miles into Mileage Plus if need be but elsewhere if a better option exists.

    That said, now that they jacked the yearly fee to $150 on both cards, I should drop one of them. I kept both because they got me 4 lounge passes a year. The economics on that worked when the fees were under $100 but now I could drop a card and get just 2 lounge passes for free and purchase 2 more to get back to 4 a year and spend less money than I would spend if I kept both cards.

    The fact this is true says a lot about how much value has been taken away from UA’s cards via the fee hike.

  33. Suck it up, buttercup. Just get a united card, get one referral bonus a year and do PYB on AF, you got the card for less than free.

  34. The United CCs are with Chase, who is a big stickler on 5/24 for approval. I am way beyond 5/24 & will be for several years. So, I cannot get a Chase United CC even if I want one. This would definitely turn me off of choosing United to fly unless it’s much cheaper or more convenient.

  35. Loyalty is dead. The direction these programs have been going is clear. January 27 I had an international flight canceled due to the big storm on the east coast. Had a confirmed Polaris upgrade for a few week in advance with my last 40 Plus Points. I was able to rebook another flight but the upgrade didn’t clear. January 31 the 40 points expired. Just six days later the upgrade on the return flight cleared. I wrote 1K and UA customer care to ask they extend the expired Plus Points six days so I could use them on the return, instead of this year’s points. It was due to a weather event and canceled flight. I’ve been a 1K for a long time, even earning status during the COVID years. They told me no. Eff you. I’m not completely surprised but at the same time they’re extending 1K status to some who didn’t qualify so why not throw someone who did qualify again a bone. I’m going to do the only thing I can do and that is cancel my card with them. Maybe I’m cutting my nose off to spite my face but this is a two way street. I’m well on my way to 1K again but I’m not going to go out of my way for it, especially with the new rules kicing in next year. After being a 1K all these years it would feel strange being a free agent. But it might be time to get off the hamster wheel.

  36. The challenge for many is Chase’s 5/24 policy: you cannot get approved if you are above 5/24. United needs to put pressure on Chase to be more flexible.

  37. @Brent

    “We should start with the obvious: they know more about the customers than we do.”

    If that is true, how do even explain the existence of AA?

  38. After 20 years with Continental/United, 2 million miles, several as GS I have given up on United and move to a mix of AA and BA. It has become too much of a flying bank selling credit cards. And service has disappeared. A purser with 41 years of experience with UA told me employee morale is as low as he has ever seen it. Polaris seats are extremely outdated. United wants to be Delta. It cannot.

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