There have been a slew of stories suggesting that advance airline bookings between the U.S. and Canada have collapsed, either because of tariffs or because Canadians are boycotting the U.S. Maybe they don’t want to become the 51st state, or just don’t like President Trump.
The claim, originating with travel data provider OAG, is that passenger bookings have plummeted 70% (“Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year”). That never made any sense, and I’ve noted in the comments on some blogs it appears to be based on a very limited sample of data that isn’t making apples-to-apples comparisons.
That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?
Meanwhile data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that bookings are down – a bit – but nothing like the outlier numbers that OAG reports and are dominating headlines… while noting that we don’t have a full window into bookings through direct channels.
Airlines are pulling back on their transborder schedules a bit – around 3.5% for summer – and pricing has turned more attractive. Journalist Brian Sumers notes that Air Canada says the OAG report is simply untrue.
The Canadian dollar is weak. That’s holding back Canadian travelers. But about one million Canadians out of a population of 40 million have homes in the United States. They aren’t just staying away (though they mostly travel to the U.S. during the insufferable winters).
U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.
@Gary ” I did not say that one million *own* homes, just that it’s how many live in the U.S. at least part time”.
True, you didn’t say “own”, you said “have”, which *strongly* implies ownership. Now you’re changing your tune.
40 millions people and Canada…yes. How many of them are home owners out of 40 millions? So one out of every 40 people would be a home owner in the USA? Seriously. What a joke article
Airlines have already reduced flights – so not sure what you talking about! The remaining ones will off course be full but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a drop – where did you do math?
For a second there I thought your website was viewfromtherightwing.com
I wish the America haters would move out but most never will they realize no one on earth other than Americans are tolerant enough for their stupid bs. I flew to Canada in February and back in March. Both flights were packed.
Planes from Canada may be full. That’s because there are less flights and smaller planes.
@Derek Broughton – I stand by what I wrote in the post. It is accurate.
I don’t find this article includes much substance. The author says the 70% drop in future bookings is wrong but doesn’t really substantiate that claim. The link in the article takes me to a substack post that quotes Air Canada saying that their bottom has not fallen out, but again not much data. Perhaps the takeaway is that there has been a drop in bookings but it’s difficult to know by how much?
Hi we just cancelled our two weeks trip to Washington state and Oregon. Will head overseas to Portugal instead
Of course Air Canada would say those stats are not true, they have a vested interest in making things seem not as bad.
Says he stands by his article but not behind it. Another right wing paid propaganda shill.