There have been a slew of stories suggesting that advance airline bookings between the U.S. and Canada have collapsed, either because of tariffs or because Canadians are boycotting the U.S. Maybe they don’t want to become the 51st state, or just don’t like President Trump.
The claim, originating with travel data provider OAG, is that passenger bookings have plummeted 70% (“Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year”). That never made any sense, and I’ve noted in the comments on some blogs it appears to be based on a very limited sample of data that isn’t making apples-to-apples comparisons.
That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?
Meanwhile data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that bookings are down – a bit – but nothing like the outlier numbers that OAG reports and are dominating headlines… while noting that we don’t have a full window into bookings through direct channels.
Airlines are pulling back on their transborder schedules a bit – around 3.5% for summer – and pricing has turned more attractive. Journalist Brian Sumers notes that Air Canada says the OAG report is simply untrue.
The Canadian dollar is weak. That’s holding back Canadian travelers. But about one million Canadians out of a population of 40 million have homes in the United States. They aren’t just staying away (though they mostly travel to the U.S. during the insufferable winters).
U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.
@Gary ” I did not say that one million *own* homes, just that it’s how many live in the U.S. at least part time”.
True, you didn’t say “own”, you said “have”, which *strongly* implies ownership. Now you’re changing your tune.
40 millions people and Canada…yes. How many of them are home owners out of 40 millions? So one out of every 40 people would be a home owner in the USA? Seriously. What a joke article
Airlines have already reduced flights – so not sure what you talking about! The remaining ones will off course be full but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a drop – where did you do math?
For a second there I thought your website was viewfromtherightwing.com
I wish the America haters would move out but most never will they realize no one on earth other than Americans are tolerant enough for their stupid bs. I flew to Canada in February and back in March. Both flights were packed.
Planes from Canada may be full. That’s because there are less flights and smaller planes.
@Derek Broughton – I stand by what I wrote in the post. It is accurate.
I don’t find this article includes much substance. The author says the 70% drop in future bookings is wrong but doesn’t really substantiate that claim. The link in the article takes me to a substack post that quotes Air Canada saying that their bottom has not fallen out, but again not much data. Perhaps the takeaway is that there has been a drop in bookings but it’s difficult to know by how much?
Hi we just cancelled our two weeks trip to Washington state and Oregon. Will head overseas to Portugal instead
Of course Air Canada would say those stats are not true, they have a vested interest in making things seem not as bad.
Says he stands by his article but not behind it. Another right wing paid propaganda shill.
Hey Red Harmony, we appreciate the people who hate America, like you, leaving. And take the rest of the left pedophiles with you.
Lot of people posting seem almost desperate for the 70% figure to be true. I’m sure I’ll be chuckling to read the conspiracy theories we will read when we look at actual seats filled later this year – accounting for reductions in flight frequency and aircraft size. Even a 10% drop is meaningful but 70% is as much “propaganda” as the dork with the mask (Tag) claims.
Much of this article goes into “I think” an “maybe”. The power of opinion. But there’s a problem with people who base their realities off opinion.
So many of these “I think …” creative writers are only dishing out whatever slant their paymasters say to write instead of letting things like fact or data be prevalent. And this is why people don’t trust journalists anymore.
So could it be because we don’t fly to us in summer? So the drop is comparison between November and April?
I have spent a few winters in Arizona with my RV. I don’t consider that as ‘have’ a home there. That should have been worded differently, but beyond that, there is no way that 2.5% of Canadians live partly in the US. Perhaps ‘visit’, yes.
Insufferable winters? I guess you don’t travel. While some places have extreme cold or snow, it’s more manageable. Do people from Buffalo, NY or Minnesota also have homes in the glorious south?
The USD/CAD has always sucked for travel and this doesn’t stop most folks because even if the dollar is worth 35% less, most products in the US are about 25% cheaper anyway.
Travel is down because the majority of people who haven’t already committed to a trip are deciding not to and opting for a trip inside Canada or Europe, which is far more enticing.
What I can tell you based on an interview with a “hotel” in Old Orchard Beach, his summer bookings are down 90% due to cancellations. Most of his summer bookings are Quebecers who have been going there for years. So maybe the 70% drop isn’t that far off.
There are some statistics coming out with significant drops; not 70%, but significant. No one has put all the stats together yet that I found.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/world/canada/air-canada-flights-seats-us.html
Meanwhile every single person I know has vowed not to travel to the States. Nobody is even going across the land border, it’s literally 2 and a half minutes from our downtown.
Some people from Buffalo, NY and the surrounding area (where I grew up) had second homes in the South. My boss at the plant nursery had one in Florida and he would relocate there for several months every winter. It is now many decades later but I think that if work allows it, people may do it. Rising Florida house prices and insurance costs may make such arrangements less likely. Canadians had the same motivations.
To Robert gross
The reason we canadians feel superior to 1/2 the american population is that unlike you we can spell tariffs , our taxes are not 50%, our health care professionals are superior to yours. And we aren’t as racist as you.
If you going to print comparison graphs, kindly do so at the same scale. To do otherwise is highly deceptive.
The scale on the 2024 numbers goes to 120,000, but the scale on the 2025 graph ends at 100.,000. Looking at the actual numbers on the graphs, they show a 25% drop.
There’s nothing in the article that shows whether the 25% drop or the 70% drop is the actual state of affairs.
Gary used AI to write this article. DO NOT TRUST GARY…
I thought the 70% reduction was based on flights booked March or April 24 versus March or April of this year? You are saying that this writers numbers were lies?
There are an estimated 1 million Americans living in Canada, including me. Many do have homes south, and many retirees do too. Yet there is a general backlash and pervasive fear about travelling south. Stories of Nazi questioning at the border and random stops by police on highways have nearly everyone I know saying they are vacationing elsewhere for at least the next four years. And most of us Americans are the staunchest supporters.
It is interesting that so many Canadians smugly think of themselves as virtuous. Almost like a lot of Europeans. My first interactions with Canadians were at five years old making change on our roadside stand. A fair amount of the time the Canadians would try to pay straight across in Canadian money, which was worth less than American money. Then when it was pointed out they would argue about it. I was taught by my mother to reject Canadian money, even if it lost a sale. Of course, the little time that the Canadian money was worth slightly more than US money the shenanigans seemed to disappear. The Canadians weren’t the only ones passing Canadian money. Other people would sometimes get it as change without noticing and then would try to pass it off to another person. Most of the passing was done with coins, not paper money. Coins were used much more back then.
Canadian’s always use percentages or meme type statements because when you look deeper you see the reality and truth and it is what it is. They are a huge buyer of American alcohol and have one of the largest single buyers of it! TRUTH – Most of their alcohol is bought by one entity so they can control and tax it (Freedom of choice here in U.S.) We buy almost the same amount dollar wise from Canada as they do from the U.S. percentage wise, U.S. sales to Canada is a small amount because of the size of their market. Canada has a similar population to California but half the economic output (GDP) 70% of the flights does seem ridiculously high, but even if true what does that equate to total flight wise in and out of U.S.? Canada is not an Economic or Military power. They don’t seem to have an idea of who they are.
The conclusion that “it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly” is inaccurate and dangerous. The Canadian dollar fluctuates against the US dollar regularly (as all currencies in the world do). The dollar is weaker than a year ago, and it is definitely slowing down some travel. But it’s not at the lowest point ever, whereas pleasure travel to the US is slowing to COVID levels. *The Canadian dollar is not the problem.*
The main reason for bookings being down is that Canadians are boycotting US travel. Business travel, family travel will still pack planes, but pleasure travel is plummetting. There is substantial evidence in both Canadian and US media to demonstrate this.
Further, your “almost-full” flight today has nothing to do with bookings in March for April flights — it’s bookings in the future, not travel now. Bookings being down 70% doesn’t mean people won’t buy their tickets later, either. Many Canadians are reluctuantly travelling in March because they already booked and don’t want to lose the money. (Though, notably, some have walked away or changed travel plans…) However, I would think that most industry experts would take low booking numbers to be a serious sign that there is trouble in the industry. I guess we’ll see how far the number of actual trips to the US dropped in the coming months.
Regardless, the conclusion that a weak dollar is keeping Canadians at home is demonstrably untrue and is misinformation. This head-in-the-sand attitude from seeing the truth is harmful, aside from anything else, because it stops Americans from understanding what the real issues are.
So I’ll underline the main issue right here. Bookings are down for the same reason bourbon sales in Canada are down and OJ sales are down and California wine sales are down. Trump threatened — and continues to threaten — Canada with annexation and economic coercion, and Canadians are pissed. Any other reason suggested either has a minor effect or is window dressing.
So what is “the real data”? And one million Canadians “have homes” in Trumpistan? Uh huh … I used to respect View from the Wing. Used to.
Once Trump drops a tactical nuke on Toronto negotiations will gain momentum.
The grandstanding by Canadians will not last.
I don’t know the total but 500,000 Canadian’s own property in Florida alone. Some maybe second homes, mobile homes, vacant lots or rental/investment property
Travel to the US during the last trump term was down, it will be down the next 4 years as well. I’ve canceled all my leisure travel with in the US… will go overseas. Additionally, my workplace frequently hosts visitors from Canada and other overseas locations; however, many of them are now hesitant to come, and some who are currently here have expressed a desire to leave.
I’ve actually seen more Canadians in the US than in past years. So I totally think the 70% number is false. I would hope that Canadians aren’t that thin skinned. We don’t need a 51st state. If anything the reason for the lower travel numbers are due to the value of the CAD to the USD.
Your comments are partially incorrect.
You have to take into account the fact that normally the volume of flights themselves increases significantly in summer from Canada-US for the summer vacation period. The fact that airlines have cut back on those routes is significant, also that they are now using lower capacity jets to us destinations and shifting the higher capacity equipment to Europe and elsewhere.
If you look at total seats available YoY the drop is indeed quite significant.