There have been a slew of stories suggesting that advance airline bookings between the U.S. and Canada have collapsed, either because of tariffs or because Canadians are boycotting the U.S. Maybe they don’t want to become the 51st state, or just don’t like President Trump.
The claim, originating with travel data provider OAG, is that passenger bookings have plummeted 70% (“Passenger bookings on Canada – US routes are currently down by 70% compared to the same period last year”). That never made any sense, and I’ve noted in the comments on some blogs it appears to be based on a very limited sample of data that isn’t making apples-to-apples comparisons.
That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?
Meanwhile data from aviation analytics company Cirium shows that bookings are down – a bit – but nothing like the outlier numbers that OAG reports and are dominating headlines… while noting that we don’t have a full window into bookings through direct channels.
Airlines are pulling back on their transborder schedules a bit – around 3.5% for summer – and pricing has turned more attractive. Journalist Brian Sumers notes that Air Canada says the OAG report is simply untrue.
The Canadian dollar is weak. That’s holding back Canadian travelers. But about one million Canadians out of a population of 40 million have homes in the United States. They aren’t just staying away (though they mostly travel to the U.S. during the insufferable winters).
U.S. – Canada travel is down, and it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly. Headlines about a 70% decline though are just wrong. That would mean market abandonment at the sort of level we saw in late March 2020 and July 2020 without travel restrictions or a global pandemic.
@ Gary — Any big drop in demand definitely isn’t showing significantly in airfare prices. A big drop in demand could sharply reduce hotel prices since those can’t be cancelled easily like air routes.
I don’t give a damn about statistics. I can tell you that I live on a winter resort beach and the number of Canadian visitors is way down. I am in the winter rental business and although I was lucky enough to have a full occupancy this winter with my usual winter guest, my Canadian guest are not sure about next winter. They have been sure for several decades but next year is up in the air. I can also tell you that this winter I have been offered no fewer than two dozen properties by foreign owners on our resort beach wanting to sell. And none of my guests or owners have suggested that any of this has anything to do with money. They are all angry with our current administration. Our relationship with Canada and the rest of the world has been severely damaged.
Those million Canadians with a house in the U.S. (mentioned in this article) should be taxed at 1% (So a million dollar house or condo taxed at $10,000 per year in addition to usual property tax). That is what Canada does to Americans. Trump should do this but probably isn’t aware of the tax.
As for those Canadians with vacation homes in the US – I live not too far from Palm Springs, which is a favorite for those from BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan. Many of the Canadians own homes here. The majority are selling them off and not planning on returning any time soon. Don’t believe me? Check out Zillow (link below) and see how many houses have gone up on MLS in the last month or so.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/?searchQueryState=%7B%22isMapVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapBounds%22%3A%7B%22west%22%3A-116.56955081103516%2C%22east%22%3A-116.16786318896484%2C%22south%22%3A33.59687594233106%2C%22north%22%3A33.86926038405048%7D%2C%22filterState%22%3A%7B%22sort%22%3A%7B%22value%22%3A%22globalrelevanceex%22%7D%7D%2C%22isListVisible%22%3Atrue%2C%22mapZoom%22%3A12%7D
I wouldn’t trust outlandish reports such as those suggesting travel is off by 70%. Typical media sensationalism.
Additionally, I would add one factor that might contribute to some reduced airline purchases are the dropping gas prices. Perhaps a few more people are opting to drive?
Demand is down. Bookings aren’t down 70%.
You have all these imbeciles on Netters claiming the entire world won’t come to America because Trump has created tariffs and is deporting illegal gang members. Or that Americans aren’t going to travel because of Trump’s tariffs. Like Al Bundy sits down with Peg, Bud and Kelly and says no Disney this year or no flying across the country to see Grandma because Trump passed tariffs or deported South American drug dealers.
Somehow they seem to forgot that two months after the supposed killer plague of March 2020 planes were back full. Yet the won’t fly because Trump said mean things about Venezuelan gang members.
I wonder if some of the advanced bookings decline could be due to “harvesting” behavior. Air Canada recently announced major points devaluations for both its own flights and for United flights. Perhaps some of the OTA advanced bookings decline is from Canadians with Air Canada points balances frantically making points bookings instead of cash bookings before the devaluation went into effect. The Air Canada points devaluation impacts Americans less because they are more likely to have transferrable points currencies like MR or UR (due to the higher interchange fees and therefore more generous signup bonuses and earning rates).
With regards to Derek’s comment “That is what Canada does to Americans.” – Actually we do that to all foreigners – the Americans were caught in the same net. What happened is that a lot of foreign money (primarily Asian) came in to Canada as a safe haven from their own countries – this bumped up the price of housing in Vancouver and Toronto to really high values where the average Canadian couldn’t afford it – think of $500,000 homes going up to 2-5 million in a space of 10 years. The tax was implemented to to penalize foreign buyers who would buy (jack up the local price) and not live there but rent it out (and not contribute to the local economy).
“There are three kinds of lies – lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – Mark Twain
All travel falls on a spectrum between discretionary and necessary. If you’re flying right now and it’s discretionary, you likely booked well in advance.
Discretionary land border trips, however, are less likely to be arranged months in advance. Land border crossings were down YoY by 20% in February. I would expect the fall in forward bookings to fall by more than that but by less than 70%.
Anecdotally, I know a number of people who are postponing making any cross-border travel plans until at least mid-April or May, given uncertainty related to, ahem, geopolitical instability in US relations related to trade and to, ahem, the US response to the Canadian election.
I’m sure the exchange rate doesn’t help, but the number of people who mentioned that as a factor is zero—and we work in a field where people talk about exchange rates for fun.
Elbows up my canadians!!!
Actually, I forgot to mention that Albertans (we live in the province next to BC) who don’t reside in B.C have to pay the surtax – so it is not just for foreign buyers only. Stop taking everything as being targeted to Americans
We would be discussing AC eminent BK filing and layoffs coming if this was true
My AA flight YVR-ORD 2 weeks ago were completely full except for the seat next to me 🙂 and across the aisle. Both MCE. And a couple boarding areas near ours were quite busy. So 70 pct seems a stretch.
thank you for this article, Gary.
the basis of the “bookings down 70%” was cherrypicking at its worst.
John is spot on. If this was true, Canadians would have done wonders at bankrupting their own airlines since they carry 2/3 of the traffic from the US to Canada.
There will be demand reductions that are related to the weaker CAD – which incidentally took its latest dive when the current president was elected in Nov – before he took office in January.
Delta kicks off earnings season in 2 weeks. They will be the first to be asked about US-Canada even though they have a pretty small presence in that market. United, with a JV w/ AC, should be soon after.
AC and UA will do wonders to downplay this because fear is wiping away billions of airline market capitalization – a far greater impact than for other industries.
WestJet and Air Canada, both Canadian airlines, have been reducing scheduled service on certain US runs.
So flights may still be full, but there are less of them.
The fact remains that advanced bookings are MASSIVELY down for April and beyond. Nothing in your post refutes this or offers any data, and everyone in the industry knows that OAG is highly reputable. You just make a comparison with the past (March). Apples and oranges. Irrelevant.
Will April come in at -75% overall? Obviously not. The OAG numbers tell that people who typically booked in advance no longer did since the orange one attacked Canada’s sovereignty. It also largely doesn’t affect business travel, except for the softening due to the heightened uncertainty and tariffs. It also doesn’t affect people who book at the last minute, so if the orange ones gets some sense beaten into him and changes policies, people’s minds can change.
Also, it doesn’t include the offsetting increase of Americans going to Canada to show economic support to an ally who’s been very generous to Americans (who can’t forget the hospitality at 9/11, the support and deaths for the various wars in the Gulf and Afghanistan, etc. etc.?)
But yeah, leisure destinations all over the US are hurting because of Canadian’s changed plans (including sales of properties), while Mexicans are rubbing their hands. And airlines’ forward schedules are starting to reflect more and more cuts between Canada and the US, with wholesale cuts (e.g. UA’s LAX-YYZ and AC’s YVR-IAD) and loads of frequency reductions.
BNN is reporting bookings are down 13% and driving was down 23% year over year for February. AC says it is using smaller planes or reducing frequency to deal with the drop. Westjet has redirected more planes to Mexico, the Caribbean and Europe.
The biggest impact will be to border states and I’m pretty sure that domestic tourism won’t cover that. Don’t hear many people looking forward to going to Fargo, ND or Great Falls, MT to spend money.
I think the FX rate doesn’t play that big an impact. Canadians are used to a weaker dollar, whether it’s against the USD, GBP or Euro. We will still travel, we just cut back on some expenses while there.
Gary is showing his bias again in this headline. That’s fine. It’s his website, after all. He can write love-notes to ‘dear leader’ for all I care.
Regardless of semantics, hyperbole, or sensationalism: It is undeniable that travel to the United States from abroad is indeed down, whether it’s from Canada, or elsewhere, by any metric, 70% or otherwise. And the reason is clear: It’s this administration and its policies.
Anyone who isn’t watching ‘state TV’ knows should know that we, the United States, under this administration, have betrayed our allies and harmed our trading partners. It’s the tariffs. It’s what He and JD did to Zelensky. It’s Signal-gate and at the Munich Security Conference earlier, wherein JD can’t help himself but to throw-shade at the Europeans. It’s the Greenland nonsense.
These are all unnecessary, self-inflicted wounds. And ‘red’ states are definitely going to pay the price. No more purchases of Kentucky Bourbon. Why buy a Ford, when a Toyota or VW (or dare I say BYD, gasp) is more reliable and less expensive to overseas markets.
The Canadians I know avoided their typical ‘snow bird’ winter in Florida this time. In fact, they’re selling their condo. They’ll go to the Caribbean, Europe, Australia/New Zealand instead. I can’t blame them. The once purple state has gone deep red, maybe even more so than even Texas.
@DesertGhost — Bah! If only @Mike P were here to see you quoting Twain. That guy loves to quote folks, often misquotes them, too. Speaking of, where’s Mike–he’s been so quiet lately. Hmm.
Leading indicators are often unreliable. But reliable indicators lag, often severely.
Leading indicators are useful in helping focus concurrent and lagging analysis efforts. They don’t need to be precisely correct to facilitate that, just directionally correct.
Anecdotal observation, the number of Canadians in Mexico this winter seems to be much lower than it normally is.
Señor Leff’s idea of insufferable winters is quite different than mine. Texas winters include cockroaches, and I consider that insufferable compared to fresh snow and ice-covered lakes and rivers outdoors and no Texas cockroach problem.
I love the CAD is weak nonsense as a justification.
It’s at the same level it was 5 years ago (and 9 years ago) and 3% lower than 2 years ago.
The exchange rate is in no way responsible for the drop in demand.
Interesting
Hopefully they stay home. The retired are buying homes in the South US and driving up housing prices.
Our young people can’t afford to compete with Canadian retires with cash
I know plus quarter of Canada is indians and dont speak English anyhow keep them arrogant Canadians in there own country they always have though they are to good for America that’s why none of them are speaking up for the triple terrifs we been paying them for decades and we decide to say make it fare or we will put 25 percent terrifs and boom were evil or our admin is horrible we have your jobs coming here now whole companies shutting there doors coming here to give our Americans jobs and yet all trump asked was for fairness in trade how is that so terrible huh o yeah just like Canada take take take never wanna give not even there own people 50 percent tax and crap healthcare
Most Canada/US flights people have been on recently that are full were more than likely booked months ago….before all the political drama. Let’s see what the load factors are in 6 months.
Personally….whatever happens politically….I just hope it results in the Fairmont in Banff to drop from insane prices to something in the ball park of just expensive.
@1990 the Canadians that go to Mexico in Florida are doing that yes in the winter and they’re not going anywhere else right now because the Canadian dollar really sucks and Trudeau really screwed them over. So it’s not all on the 60 days that Trump’s been in office so you can’t blame it all on that.
I suggest the author is out of touch with Canada and Canadians. The US departure area was totally empty at YVR last week. Not so in international or domestic. They were busy. And loads of US routes have been canceled.
Here is a conundrum.
If Canada becomes the 51st state, it would add 41,258,599 new citizens to our population.
According to current laws there are only allowed 435 seats available in the house.
the number of seats is one seat for every 761,169 citizens, therefore Canada would get 54 seats in the house. In order to achieve this number, there are several states that would lose representatives.
How is the orange turd going to deal with this?
They will also get two senators (probably democrats)
Considering how much the Canadian citizens hate our current president, chance are most of the reps would also be independent or Democrat.
When all is said and done, I would expect to see, perhaps, a 20% drop in Canadian visitors to the US this summer. Which is a lot! But these higher numbers are nuts. People cross the border for various reasons, but few cross on a whim. “Feelings” won’t dip the number beyond 20%. And that’s a Captain Obvious analysis.
This author is the epitome of poor journalism.
“I don’t like the data but I took a flight and it wasn’t empty” makes you sound like a dolt.
To have a theory based on the number of people on your own flight, no matter times you have taken it recently, is dumb. Sorry to be blunt.
Airlines have simply cut the number of flights and routes they are running so their planes are not flying 1/2 full or in one case recently, with just one passenger. Fewer planes and far fewer seats in the air available for you to sit in right now means the flights that ARE in the air less often have more people.
A final example of the decline: A family member works at WestJet (Canada). The seasonal, direct flight from Calgary, AB to New York (La Guardia) has been cancelled due to a lack of pre-season ticket sales.
I think you’re being a bit disengenuous Gary, The article expressly say Canada to US travel, so you flying up to Canada is irrelevant. I’m sure Canadians who own houses in the US still come, why wouldn’t they? But vacationers aren’t coming, so that’s not only air travel $s but, hotel $s, restaurant $s, entertainment $s, car rental, etc.
The article has zero to do with northbound travel.
Canadians are full of it.
Look up how many tarrifs they have on USA goods pre-Trump.
They’re just upset because the USA is finally calling them out.
@Warren Trout Why should Canadians get to own homes here? It seems bizarre.They aren’t citizens. How many own a home in Kansas? No, they own them in AZ, Fl and make it more crowded for US citizens to buy a home. Florida housing prices have skyrocketed and Arizona’s went up a lot during the pandemic making it harder for Americans to buy. Oh, but they spend some money during the winter at restaurants and golf courses I guess. Who cares. Why is it a benefit for foreigners to own places in the US.
It seems the US is for everyone but the actual citizens. We also have way too much legal immigration.
@EgE: orange soda would “annex” (not a thing) CA as a territory, so no voting rights, no extra senators, no representatives, etc.
The Mark Twain quote – Clemens attributed that to UK PM Benjamin Disraeli. So “Lies, damn lies, and statistics” … but it doesn’t matter who says it because
ALL THESE NUMBERS are with no scientific basis as the companies with the business don’t publish raw numbers.
So yes, based on made up compilations of raw sewage that is unsupported and can’t be duplicated “visitors from Canada” (wait, are those Canadian citizens? Dual citizens? Snowbirds? People transitting? we don’t know) are down between 7% and 70%. That order of magnitude difference (10x) makes it clear the data are not useful from which to draw a conclusion.
As posters have said, bookings are down, so this isn’t a “nothing burger” but if Gary says (on his website, which is his right) it’s 70%, it’s likely not.
So, just so I understand this, Gary is saying that a company that has been analyzing the airline industry for nearly a century and is relied upon by most of the major players in the industry has suddenly gone completely insane and his basis for this assertion is that it just doesn’t seem possible? Must say I am tiring of his BS since the orange one got elected. It has become obvious that he has drunk the koolaid
@SC Canada should ban foreign ownership of houses/condos. I can’t fathom why they or the US allow it. The US should do the same. People in parts of the US like California can’t afford the housing prices either. Many other cities have had prices skyrocket making it hard for locals to buy.
I teach stats and research methods. Rule #1 is “Don’t simply accept results, particularly extreme results that you agree with”
I did not read all of the post and maybe I should have before I shared my observations. I am in Europe tonight specifically the UK. People do not want to travel to the U.S. because of the stories they are hearing about customs and border crossings. We have a close friend who is from Canada, married an American and lives in the U.S.. She goes to visit her family, she has been told by an attorney and has shared stories of discussions with friends who have been subject to additional scrutiny and examination. I saw a video post today where a family decided they would go through with their summer plans in the U.S. even though they were advised not to because of all the money they spent on an RV and a camp ground membership. I am not surprised travel is down based on what I am hearing. I have no idea what the real numbers are I know people are concerned.
Now I understand why I feel the sense of being surrounded by morons when I’m at the DMV. Reading these comments pretty much confirms it. You can all bask in the hell you create. I’m sure it will be lovely
For everyone saying Canadians /foreigners are selling their homes – good! We are short so many in the USA. Maybe prices will come down. I’ve always thought we should restrict home purchases to those that live here full time, with a hefty surtax on those with second+ homes.
The sad part is that anyone selling out of anger, is, indeed, cutting off their nose to spite their face. After all, only 4 years of a presidency and then power shifts.
But, sell sell! I want your second home to be my first.
So what? We f’d over our neighbor to the north and it’s time for the USA to pay! We deserve everything coming to us! We have an angry, dumbed down society that knows nothing of the world and our position in it. I say, bring it on! It’s time for America to wake up! If that’s at all possible!
There is some truth in reports of a decline of incoming Canadians. A local report.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/20/travel/video/canada-trump-maine-travel-cancellations-digvid
$550 for an economy class flight between YUL and ORD will keep a lot of people away. I travel the route several times annually and the prices have gotten ridiculous. These outrageous prices in general, plus costly hotels with so many surcharges, are probably the real reason travel is slowing down.
The internet is full of false news. People will believe anything they read and I will too.
My sister lives north of Seattle, about 60 miles from Canada. She competes in a lot of dog agility trials. At least half of the competitors are from British Columbia. Most of them have sent this sort of message: “we know our American friends in the trials aren’t Trumpers, but we simply cannot attend trials in the US, under these circumstances.”
I live in Palm Springs, I can tell you Canadians are leaving here and not coming back. Many have put their homes up for sale. Trump is an ass and is destroying the US. Putin is sitting back and laughing.
Gary, no serious researcher believes anecdotal evidence such as “there seemed to be plenty of people on my flight” means anything, but if you believe anecdotes, I flew to Australia in the middle of January with friends who were going there to buy a house, partially because they despise the Orange Julius Caesar. Every seat on the plane was full. Horrible. On the way back there were so few seats sold that every passenger had a whole bank of seats to themselves. Our friends bought a house, flew back on a different flight, different airline, and had the same experience. And I’m investigating other countries because I’m no longer proud to be an American. At all.
“You have all these imbeciles on Netters claiming the entire world won’t come to America because Trump has created tariffs and is deporting illegal gang members.”
The issue isn’t tariffs, it’s that Trump is using them to threaten allies. (That’s part of why he’s vacillated — flip-flopped wildly — so much on them. Well, that and the fact that he’s showing significant cognitive decline.) And the issue isn’t arresting actual gang members.
The issue is arresting people who are obviously not gang members, rendering them to a 3rd country where they can be tortured and deprived of their rights — without any semblance of Due Process.
A lawless country run by an administration that engages in demagoguery with wild and obviously false lies (immigrants are eating your pets! every Venezuelan with a tattoo is a gang member!) doesn’t seem a great place to visit. Especially with the stories of visitors being arrested for opinions the current administration disfavors.
We’ll reap what we sow, and we do deserve what’s coming. But propaganda is effective, and it’s easier to fool a man than convince him he’s been fooled, so I expect things to get worse before they get better.
(On topic — I have no idea what the actual travel numbers will be. I’m sure they will be at least a little lower, and I’m confident that the people of ~any country would rally around their flag when their sovereignty is attacked as we have to Canada, but I’d make no claims to be able to predict how much lower. But things can change; the stability we see is the product of a complicated system with high efficiency — and highly efficient systems are also fragile, since efficiency includes avoiding redundancy.)
You’re sleep walking into fascism. 70%? Who cares? If it down? Or up? Do think our president talking about using our (not his) department of DEFENSE to invade our friendliest neighbor to annex it is good for tourism? And Greenland and Panama? No of whom have done nothing belligerent against us. Do you think they scared of us? I’m an American citizen just married. I’m scared to bring her there period. I’m certainly scared she will be denied entry like so many tourists now or deported after…. (This is a major reason bookings ARE down from everywhere). I won’t send her this comment because this kind of criticism of Trump on social media has led to denial of entry.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/19/trump-musk-french-scientist-detained
When they came for the Palestinians, Venezuelans, the leftists, the democrats….I said nothing. When they can for me, I was writing a blog about whether travel was down by, 70% or 69
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamp post, more for support than illumination” (Andrew Lang)
I’m British, living in the UK. I’ve travelled several times to the US, but I don’t plan to go again while the president embraces the Axis of Evil. I have great sympathy for those Americans who have had this chaos imposed on them, but they have only their compatriots and especially their dumb-ass MAGA media and spineless Congress to blame. Unfortunately, I have to consider myself one of the ‘good people’ who can only sit on the sidelines while evil triumphs. I await the death of trumpism with impatience.
Canada sells more to the USA than the USA sells to Canada. Since so many Canadians are upset, maybe a trial moratorium on Canadian oil and gas should be enacted. It won’t do much but it would help the deficit in trade a bit.
I’m a Captain who fliess weekly to Europe for the worlds largest airline and my 250 seats remain full. This is still retoric from the left upset about not having their way. Temper tantroms abound, grow up.
Oh hey red harmony, Gary’s doubt from his experience may be methodologically questionable. But a full flight with 70% down booking rate isn’t very likely to see. So his dispute is still valid.
Plus, current unnecessary and unreasonable nationalist sentiment against US seems more like a method for the upcoming election. We will probably see it recede soon
We have been lied to our whole life . I do not believe in conspiracies . I only know that 2 humans can read the same story and have 2 different opinions . Nobody knows how to debate anymore . It used to be taught in school 40 years ago .
Here is a list of tariffs Canada Imposes on U.S. Goods::
– Milk: 270%
– Cheese: 245%
– Butter: 298%
– Poultry: 238%
-Eggs: 163%
– Barley: 160%
– Wheat: 94%
– Sugar: 265%
– Peanut Butter: 295%
– Rice: 150%
– Vegetables: 100%
– Fish Products: 100%
– Lumber: 20%
– Shoes: 30%
– Cocoa: 30%
– Metals: 25%
– Wool: 30%
– Tobacco: 100+%
And Canada cry’s about our 25% tariff? Phuck Canada!
For anyone who does commercial airline forecasts, there is no question that recent developments are being incorporated into scenarios, not just for Canada but for Europe this summer and beyond. If the travel industry wants to prevent further damage, it should speak about one voice about integrated economies, the folly of tariffs, and the damage they will cause to all, but most of all to the United States.
America is sick n tired of being forced tonprop up other countries economies. We haveadw the world each nbthe world is UNGRATEFUL PERIOD SO NOW NO MORE HELP! NOW ITS TIME WE HELP OURSELVES AMERICA FIRST!!!
How’s the rest of the world can see, from a few comments here. America does have a lot of imbeciles. America is on the decline thanks to these imbeciles
Why would anyone want to go to america? That guy “Waldopepper12” makes it clear the insane asylum patients are running things. You are targeted for deportation even if you’re a legitimate tourist now, if you exercise free speech and highlight the war crimes of a certain little country that we wholly prop up and are a green card student, you’re treated like a terrorist now.
The United States isn’t a safe country anymore, not even for americans, it’s only safe for the obscenely rich.
The United States of America has fallen, it’s no longer a world leader. I’ve never been so embarrassed to be american.
And you’re positive these were all Canadians on your flight? Because I know several Americans who are and will be vacationing in Canada to take our tourism dollars there, my family included. We’re heading to Europe next month to do the same thing.
But I assume you checked all the passports and didn’t just jump to conclusions to fit your political beliefs in order to nix the headline you don’t want to believe
@ Bill and Wldopepper12 — You’re idiots.
@ Tim Dunn — Queen CherryPicker returns!
It’s what one should expect when a country officially sanctions extortion as a presidential duty. The shame of America.
Waldo. You are accepting the narrative of a known liar. Yes it is true the US is running behind on a trade balance. But the reason is NOT supporting foreing lands, it is because the US has less to offer. I have cookies to offer. You buy them . You have rocks to offer. I don’t need them. Are you supporting me?. No it’s just no one wants your rocks. Get it?
I am disappointed that this article didn’t show statistics contrary to what the headlines show. Yes, there are differing opinions as to the actual decline of Canada-US air travel, and the OAG starts likely only reflects a small part of the market they could see. But, as a Canadian who owns property in the US, I can say that the whole country is very angry and deeply disappointed with what’s happening in our neighbor down south, and resolve to do what we can to show that. I have canceled our planned vacation in Las Vegas in May, and our normal annual visit to Arizona is up in the air.
Recently there have been a few well publicized cases of foreigners being detained for weeks for incorrect paperwork or simply having opinions on their phone that were unfavorable to the current administration, and the new requirement for visitors staying over 30 days to register and in case fingerprinted also scares people. This is just 2 months into the new regime, and it’s apparent that CBP is increasingly harsh on visitors and even US citizens. EU and Canada have issued travel advisories on travelling to the US. The list goes on. The worst is yet to come.
We can only hope the good sense of ordinary Americans eventually prevails and the US will stop treating every visitor with suspicious eyes, even her good nature neighbor up the frozen north.
@Tim Horton – Canadian trade policy is dumb, so let’s light our own economy on fire. Smart!
@Jimmy Huang – did you see the embedded graph?
To Waldopepper12, Donald Trump, various trade and finance ‘experts’ and others who think a trade deficit with Canada is the equivalent to a ‘subsidy’, perhaps you should be more careful about which MAGA influencers you listen to. When you buy your Bud Light from the liquor store, are you subsidising the store? No, you are entering into a transaction. And likely the store doesn’t buy anything from you. Do you complain? No. You go back for more beers.
So it is with international trade. Maybe the US sells less to Canada than they sell to the US. But there are many countries where the deficit is in America’s favour, which is why America is such a rich country.
You would think that Donald Trump, you know, that successful businessman, would understand that. But perhaps he’d rather be ignorant on this stuff, just like he is ignorant on so many other important issues.
@ Gary Leff. Sorry I did miss the graph underneath, but did read the comments. My point remains that any statistics have their limitations and may not reflect the entire market. The decline of US-Canada travel are due to multiple reasons, as you correctly point out, but the fear and ill will that prevail now will manifest themselves much more in the months and (hopefully not) years to come.
@Jimmy Huang – “any statistics have their limitations and may not reflect the entire market” I literally made this point in the piece, which is why there’s no substantiation of the (implausible) 70% claim. They’re taking a day’s worth of data from agency bookings and comparing it to another day’s from the prior period and not even adjusting for difference in day of week etc.
There was a comment from someone about huge tariffs on US goods coming into Canada, and concluded ‘Phuck Canada”. This is what happens when people use FaceBook for their sole news source. When you check actual fact sites… you see the actual numbers.
Barley seed, UST: Free
Raw sugar, UST: Free
Peanut butter, UST: Free
Footwear, UST: Free
Bovine meat, UST: Free
Rice, UST: Free
Cars, UST: Free
Vacuum cleaners, UST: Free
Aluminum, UST: Free
Tobacco, UST: Free
etc etc
The highest supposed tariffs mentioned in his post was dairy and poultry products, claiming they were over 200 percent. Canada has supply management regulations for these types of products, meaning that after an import quota has been reached for a specific exporter, they are charged a much steeper fee . US exports to Canada for dairy NEVER reaches the limit that the steep tariffs apply, not even close. US is able to sell within the US or to other countries, without needing to sell to the relatively small Canadian market. I know that these facts will be dismissed by those intent on cheerleading tariffs, but I still had to say something. As for ‘Phuck Canada’, you wonder why we boo the American anthem? We are booing ignorance and betrayal by someone we thought to be an ally and friend. Stay home if you can’t be respectful.
“That’s a COVID-19 pandemic level collapse. I flew up to Canada a couple of weeks ago, my flight was pretty full, but I guess it’s every other flight that’s empty?”
Author assumes that if bookings are down 70 percent buys tickets 30 percent airplanes are flying around? Perhaps fewer flights that are still mostly full instead?
I feel like I missed something in this article. I get that 70% may be overblown, but the headline say’s here’s the real data, and I don’t see any. The author’s flight felt full? Hardly data. A screenshot of a tweet of a chart that doesn’t include any details on what data the chart was based on? Also not data. The link to a journalist who says that someone from air canada says it’s not true but doesn’t provide figures? That article quotes people that say it’s bad, but maybe not as bad as rumours say it is and that for now, people are still traveling to the US, if only because they bought their nonrefundable tickets a long time ago. This doesn’t prove or disprove the 70% claim. If you want to refute the figure, use real data to do it.
Regarding the mean spirted, selfish, arrogant attack tRump has made upon our friend, neighbor, ally, partner and may I even say family member, is one of the worse things tRump has done in the horrible two months of a no good very bad year so far that was totally created by only himself.
The trade “imbalance” is just plain wrong. Canada has about 10 percent of the population of the US, naturally its market demand is going to be about 10% of of the US. The lying claim that the US subsidizes Canada is incorrect. The US demands and ravenously consumes so much more than it can provide for its own people that it goes out and buys what it needs for other countries. It wants more minerals than the US has. It wants more nickel and uranium than it has for its own consumption. In spite of “drill baby drill” the US buys ALOT of oil from Alberta. Ask MN, WI, IL, MI where its gasoline is coming from. It is not TX or OK! Why, because the Alberta oil is different than the US sourced oil. The US doesn’t HAVE enough of the type of oil it consumes. The US markets demand more of stuff that it actually has. The demand for Canadian stuff is so great that the US is buying more than Canada buys for the US. The “problem” is actually with the US.!
The great Orange one freely and proudly boasted that the new NA Free trade pact that he proudly demanded be renegotiated in his first administration was the best. No one EVER talks about that today. Now it is the most unfair trade arrangement ever. All of the “complaints” the Dear One now has have been fully manufactured by him to rake over any one he now sees as standing in his greedy way. And even if these fake issues were true, wouldn’t sitting down and talking together like sane people do to correct the issues be the better way to go than starting out “Negotiations” with an insult and then an attempt to attack and take over a free, sovereign nation that is actually a partner and a member of alliance that has not provoked the US in any way? Clearly the insane one is incapable of such an idea. The screw you or be screwed world view is tearing the world apart in a matter of weeks.
That half of the US chose this method of life is on them in the end though no doubt they will have the audacity to blame Canada for the failing American democracy rather than look in the mirror. Heaven forbid that a mistake be admitted! Such weakness will be the end of the Great America. No government or nation has ever stood forever. The US is so insulated from the greater world that it wrongly still believes it will stand strong and even greater by reducing its friend count to zero. The stupidest mistake that all the history books around the world will record – except the ones written in the US. Our kids will be taught to believe that the MAGA movement was brought down by a foreign power infiltrating the US minds, when in fact is FOX and One America that will be the real reason.
The imbecilic remarks from a certain loud/proud segment of the readership exposes the usual flaws in research and critical thinking.
In a group I belong to on FB, they were commenting about this article, too, and the loud/proud dopes were ranting on about these suspected cancellations being the result of recent changes in the USD/CAD exchange rate. Bravo, boys and girls, for only looking at data from the past month, instead of the past year, or five years. Even when pointed out, the response was a pathetic “I didn’t do the research you did.” You didn’t do 20 seconds of googling?
Then comes the table as presented above, with flimsy/lacking context data. Thank you, T. Jevnikar, for highlighting the galling lack of background from the loudmouth.
The best part of that table from the original lout (is what’s NOT on that table) was that the top five items exported from the US to Canada: autos/parts, machinery, nuclear reactors, electronics and mineral fuels/oils.
Our exports totaled $340B in 2024. Dairy, every dolts favored commodity, was $1.4B. And not reaching the threshold for those tariffs suggested.
As negotiated to be the greatest trade agreement ever.
But let’s trash Canada, Canadians, their outgoing Prime Minister and just generally hurl insults at them. They’ll just have to sit there and take it, because ‘Merica.
Living near Detroit, and knowing/working with Canadians, they’re angry, they’re hurt, they’re bitter, and they’re boycotting US/buying Canadian. And cancelling trips.
And that outrage and anger and bitterness will continue long into the future, long after the orange outrage has moved on to the afterlife/golf course near you.
“Joan Robinson once said that a country shouldn’t throw rocks into its own harbors just because other countries have rocky coasts.” Bad tariffs aren’t the solution to bad tariffs. Oh, to live in a world with zero tariffs.
What’s the first stage of grief again? Also, tell that to New England resort owners who are getting only about 10% normal bookings demand.
Just took a look at the February numbers for LAS airport for passenger numbers from Canada; year-over-year, they’re down roughly 25% – which is pretty significant number. I’d expect March will probably be similar, if not worse.
Canadians are pissed right off – and they’re making their feelings known with their wallets.
Canada sells more to the US than the US sells to Canada because there are 347 million people in the US and 41 million people in Canada. The only way we’ll buy less from Canada is if Trump crashes the economy, though that might affect the rest of the world.
The simple-mindedness of some, deep thinkers we’ll call them. “Phuck Canada!” Says one commenter. Citing a list of goods and items with little understand or explanation.
Tariffs on U.S. dairy products imported into Canada depend on whether the U.S. has exceeded quotas agreed to in U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.
Those tariff figures KICK IN based on AGREED UPON TRADE levels.
As for trade imbalance: 40 million people don’t need as much as 340 million people. Of course they’re not gonna be buying as much off the US as the US buys off them.
I appreciate your efforts in debunking the misleading statistic about U.S.-Canada airline bookings being down 70%. It’s refreshing to see someone dig into the data and provide a clearer picture. However, I was surprised to see another questionable claim in your article—that one million Canadians own homes in the U.S. Based on available data, this figure seems highly exaggerated. While Canadians are indeed significant buyers of U.S. real estate, the actual number is much lower.
Could you shed some light on where this statistic came from?
@red harmony let me know. I’ll get you a one way ticket out because you don’t like who the majority of the US voted for. I’ll get you a tee shirt that says democracy means you must vote for the person I tell you to. See who will welcome you and let me know. I’ll get you the ticket.
Of course 70 percent drop does t make logical sense. But fake news has to work hard to stay on top of things . They just can’t keep up. I am in favor of a new tax on any property in the US bought by canadiens. It will be an additional tariff for them. Florida will levy on top of that.
Woke liberal American garbage news media that’s spewing the report of Canadians not traveling because of Trump. Truly pathetic here with America’s “news” media.
Canadian here. Retired and travel approx 20 weeks a year. Frequently travel to the US but not anymore. And it has nothing to do with the Canadian dollar, which never stopped us before. In the 80’s I served in the British Army in Germany and you couldn’t help but wonder about the past and the true beliefs of Germans of a certain age. With the vitriol against Canada from the WH, the MAGA trolls and US citizens we interacted with in Mexico just last month, I find myself questioning the beliefs of every US citizen I interact with. That trust and friendship is gone for a very long time.
The post by Tim Horton is exactly why most people around the world think Americans are uneducated, ignorant, egotistical people. Let a smart woman explain things to you in simple sentences that you can hopefully understand.
https://x.com/KirstenHillmanA/status/1902774636137549826?t=OvS25RUTstfiR1vgNoWdSA&s=19
For the record – i believe that this was a mistake. The analyst used 3 months vs 1 month. So the number is closer to 21% decline. Let’s see what the numbers will show. However Air Canada is voting with its schedules. It has moved some Maxs to International routes.
@Brendan Reese – I did not say that one million *own* homes, just that it’s how many live in the U.S. at least part time – this includes renters – and is a rough rounded approximation from U.S. census data.
@Jeff – las vegas is down generally, however february data is skewed for many reasons (a portion of which comes from comparing to 2024 leap year) and also shifts in stays from events.
It’s not rocket science folks
Canadians are still travelling, we’re just choosing to travel to other destinations. And this any going to change in a month or two.
Ordinary Canadians are being bombarded from all directions. We have the most socialist government in our history and we can’t get rid of them (looks like we will get stuck with them for another 4 years because of how electoral boundaries are drawn – the usual political games). Now America has turned on us 🙁 The level of frustration is high. We love the US and its people. We don’t like what is happening anywhere right now. For the most part, we even seem to empathize with the notion of bringing manufacturing back to NA. The fact is that most manufacturing has been moved to China, not Canada. We have seen the same devastation in manufacturing as the US. Corporations focused on shareholders, not employees have chased cheap manufacturing in China to boost profits. This works for the wealthy, but leaves the working class way behind. At this point Canada is concerned about China and how it will maneuver into the void left by the US as the US retreats from the world economically.
Simply astounding how many Americans are still churlish about losing the election…most ludicrous comment here being “Trump showing cognitive decline…” from people who would have voted for a walking cadaver.
I’m not American nor do I live there but it’s clear the USA even now with Trump in office is such a bad place that people from many countries would risk life and limb to get in, not sure that’s the case for many other countries including Canada whose main attraction is the super generous welfare system which many newcomers feel entitled to exploit repeatedly and chronically. And as for the 70% bookings decline being a factual analysis…yeah Kamala Harris was according to the polls to win anywhere, everywhere and sweep the swing states!
I´m Danish and have been to the US over 50 times in my life, crossing the border both by land and air. I can hands down say that I don´t dare going to the US right now in this geopolitical invironment, where the US President doesen´t rule out using military force against my Kingdom.
I am sure I´m not the only European coming to this conclusion, reading horror stories in the news about overreach of CBP officers coming out of the blue after Trump took office.
Tim Horton, where did you get those numbers? Before the trade war, most U.S. goods entering Canada had no tariffs at all. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7485622
You take one, probably wrong, report and try to say that therefore the opposite is true. Pretend all you want, but airline advance bookings are down. Just in my own family, 3 out of 4 have cancelled visits to their own relatives. Cross-border road traffic was down 500,000! And many of those million winter-home owners are trying to sell.
You won’t catch me traveling to a country where the president is whipping up hatred of Canadians
@Gary ” I did not say that one million *own* homes, just that it’s how many live in the U.S. at least part time”.
True, you didn’t say “own”, you said “have”, which *strongly* implies ownership. Now you’re changing your tune.
40 millions people and Canada…yes. How many of them are home owners out of 40 millions? So one out of every 40 people would be a home owner in the USA? Seriously. What a joke article
Airlines have already reduced flights – so not sure what you talking about! The remaining ones will off course be full but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a drop – where did you do math?
For a second there I thought your website was viewfromtherightwing.com
I wish the America haters would move out but most never will they realize no one on earth other than Americans are tolerant enough for their stupid bs. I flew to Canada in February and back in March. Both flights were packed.
Planes from Canada may be full. That’s because there are less flights and smaller planes.
@Derek Broughton – I stand by what I wrote in the post. It is accurate.
I don’t find this article includes much substance. The author says the 70% drop in future bookings is wrong but doesn’t really substantiate that claim. The link in the article takes me to a substack post that quotes Air Canada saying that their bottom has not fallen out, but again not much data. Perhaps the takeaway is that there has been a drop in bookings but it’s difficult to know by how much?
Hi we just cancelled our two weeks trip to Washington state and Oregon. Will head overseas to Portugal instead
Of course Air Canada would say those stats are not true, they have a vested interest in making things seem not as bad.
Says he stands by his article but not behind it. Another right wing paid propaganda shill.
Hey Red Harmony, we appreciate the people who hate America, like you, leaving. And take the rest of the left pedophiles with you.
Lot of people posting seem almost desperate for the 70% figure to be true. I’m sure I’ll be chuckling to read the conspiracy theories we will read when we look at actual seats filled later this year – accounting for reductions in flight frequency and aircraft size. Even a 10% drop is meaningful but 70% is as much “propaganda” as the dork with the mask (Tag) claims.
Much of this article goes into “I think” an “maybe”. The power of opinion. But there’s a problem with people who base their realities off opinion.
So many of these “I think …” creative writers are only dishing out whatever slant their paymasters say to write instead of letting things like fact or data be prevalent. And this is why people don’t trust journalists anymore.
So could it be because we don’t fly to us in summer? So the drop is comparison between November and April?
I have spent a few winters in Arizona with my RV. I don’t consider that as ‘have’ a home there. That should have been worded differently, but beyond that, there is no way that 2.5% of Canadians live partly in the US. Perhaps ‘visit’, yes.
Insufferable winters? I guess you don’t travel. While some places have extreme cold or snow, it’s more manageable. Do people from Buffalo, NY or Minnesota also have homes in the glorious south?
The USD/CAD has always sucked for travel and this doesn’t stop most folks because even if the dollar is worth 35% less, most products in the US are about 25% cheaper anyway.
Travel is down because the majority of people who haven’t already committed to a trip are deciding not to and opting for a trip inside Canada or Europe, which is far more enticing.
What I can tell you based on an interview with a “hotel” in Old Orchard Beach, his summer bookings are down 90% due to cancellations. Most of his summer bookings are Quebecers who have been going there for years. So maybe the 70% drop isn’t that far off.
There are some statistics coming out with significant drops; not 70%, but significant. No one has put all the stats together yet that I found.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/world/canada/air-canada-flights-seats-us.html
Meanwhile every single person I know has vowed not to travel to the States. Nobody is even going across the land border, it’s literally 2 and a half minutes from our downtown.
Some people from Buffalo, NY and the surrounding area (where I grew up) had second homes in the South. My boss at the plant nursery had one in Florida and he would relocate there for several months every winter. It is now many decades later but I think that if work allows it, people may do it. Rising Florida house prices and insurance costs may make such arrangements less likely. Canadians had the same motivations.
To Robert gross
The reason we canadians feel superior to 1/2 the american population is that unlike you we can spell tariffs , our taxes are not 50%, our health care professionals are superior to yours. And we aren’t as racist as you.
If you going to print comparison graphs, kindly do so at the same scale. To do otherwise is highly deceptive.
The scale on the 2024 numbers goes to 120,000, but the scale on the 2025 graph ends at 100.,000. Looking at the actual numbers on the graphs, they show a 25% drop.
There’s nothing in the article that shows whether the 25% drop or the 70% drop is the actual state of affairs.
Gary used AI to write this article. DO NOT TRUST GARY…
I thought the 70% reduction was based on flights booked March or April 24 versus March or April of this year? You are saying that this writers numbers were lies?
There are an estimated 1 million Americans living in Canada, including me. Many do have homes south, and many retirees do too. Yet there is a general backlash and pervasive fear about travelling south. Stories of Nazi questioning at the border and random stops by police on highways have nearly everyone I know saying they are vacationing elsewhere for at least the next four years. And most of us Americans are the staunchest supporters.
It is interesting that so many Canadians smugly think of themselves as virtuous. Almost like a lot of Europeans. My first interactions with Canadians were at five years old making change on our roadside stand. A fair amount of the time the Canadians would try to pay straight across in Canadian money, which was worth less than American money. Then when it was pointed out they would argue about it. I was taught by my mother to reject Canadian money, even if it lost a sale. Of course, the little time that the Canadian money was worth slightly more than US money the shenanigans seemed to disappear. The Canadians weren’t the only ones passing Canadian money. Other people would sometimes get it as change without noticing and then would try to pass it off to another person. Most of the passing was done with coins, not paper money. Coins were used much more back then.
Canadian’s always use percentages or meme type statements because when you look deeper you see the reality and truth and it is what it is. They are a huge buyer of American alcohol and have one of the largest single buyers of it! TRUTH – Most of their alcohol is bought by one entity so they can control and tax it (Freedom of choice here in U.S.) We buy almost the same amount dollar wise from Canada as they do from the U.S. percentage wise, U.S. sales to Canada is a small amount because of the size of their market. Canada has a similar population to California but half the economic output (GDP) 70% of the flights does seem ridiculously high, but even if true what does that equate to total flight wise in and out of U.S.? Canada is not an Economic or Military power. They don’t seem to have an idea of who they are.
The conclusion that “it’s likely economic activity is slowing more broadly” is inaccurate and dangerous. The Canadian dollar fluctuates against the US dollar regularly (as all currencies in the world do). The dollar is weaker than a year ago, and it is definitely slowing down some travel. But it’s not at the lowest point ever, whereas pleasure travel to the US is slowing to COVID levels. *The Canadian dollar is not the problem.*
The main reason for bookings being down is that Canadians are boycotting US travel. Business travel, family travel will still pack planes, but pleasure travel is plummetting. There is substantial evidence in both Canadian and US media to demonstrate this.
Further, your “almost-full” flight today has nothing to do with bookings in March for April flights — it’s bookings in the future, not travel now. Bookings being down 70% doesn’t mean people won’t buy their tickets later, either. Many Canadians are reluctuantly travelling in March because they already booked and don’t want to lose the money. (Though, notably, some have walked away or changed travel plans…) However, I would think that most industry experts would take low booking numbers to be a serious sign that there is trouble in the industry. I guess we’ll see how far the number of actual trips to the US dropped in the coming months.
Regardless, the conclusion that a weak dollar is keeping Canadians at home is demonstrably untrue and is misinformation. This head-in-the-sand attitude from seeing the truth is harmful, aside from anything else, because it stops Americans from understanding what the real issues are.
So I’ll underline the main issue right here. Bookings are down for the same reason bourbon sales in Canada are down and OJ sales are down and California wine sales are down. Trump threatened — and continues to threaten — Canada with annexation and economic coercion, and Canadians are pissed. Any other reason suggested either has a minor effect or is window dressing.
So what is “the real data”? And one million Canadians “have homes” in Trumpistan? Uh huh … I used to respect View from the Wing. Used to.
Once Trump drops a tactical nuke on Toronto negotiations will gain momentum.
The grandstanding by Canadians will not last.
I don’t know the total but 500,000 Canadian’s own property in Florida alone. Some maybe second homes, mobile homes, vacant lots or rental/investment property
Travel to the US during the last trump term was down, it will be down the next 4 years as well. I’ve canceled all my leisure travel with in the US… will go overseas. Additionally, my workplace frequently hosts visitors from Canada and other overseas locations; however, many of them are now hesitant to come, and some who are currently here have expressed a desire to leave.
I’ve actually seen more Canadians in the US than in past years. So I totally think the 70% number is false. I would hope that Canadians aren’t that thin skinned. We don’t need a 51st state. If anything the reason for the lower travel numbers are due to the value of the CAD to the USD.
Your comments are partially incorrect.
You have to take into account the fact that normally the volume of flights themselves increases significantly in summer from Canada-US for the summer vacation period. The fact that airlines have cut back on those routes is significant, also that they are now using lower capacity jets to us destinations and shifting the higher capacity equipment to Europe and elsewhere.
If you look at total seats available YoY the drop is indeed quite significant.